Saturday, August 14, 2004

USDA predicts the largest corn and Soybean harvest, Corn Prices in India, Cost of Labeling GM Foods - A Filipino Study

 
USDA predicts a largest Corn harvest in US history and a second largest Soybean harvest
 
The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed expectations for large U.S. maize and soybean crops. It is expected that US will harvest a maize crop close to 276.93 MMT, up by 8% from last year, with a average yield of 3.78 tons / acre. This crop will be the largest in US history.
 
Soybean production is estimated at 78.38 MMT, up by 19% from 65.86 MMT last year, with an estimated yield of 1.04 tons / acre.
 
The crop usage is expected to be: 
 
Feed and residual use: 148.62 MMT
Food, Seed & Industrial use : 70.37 MMT (Up 8% from last year)
Ethanol : 34.80 MMT up from 30.48 MMT in 2003 and 25.30 MMT in 2002
 
With such a big crop, it is expected that the corn prices will be depressed. The agency in in July report predicted that the farm prices will be in the range of 80.68 - 96.42 / MT, down from last years range of 90.52 - 106.27 / MT.
 
Corn prices in India are firm
 
The Indian corn prices have declined, owing to the statement issued by Shri.Sharad Pawar, Minister of Agriculture of a good crop this year well. The drought fears have faded in almost all areas except in Uttar Pradesh. The fear of excessive rains in some belts still remains in some areas.
 
Reports suggest Corn prices to be close to Rs.6500.00 (USD 141) per ton in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka. Prices in Tamil Nadu have also come down to Rs.6900 (USD 150) per ton, it may not remain low for long.
 
The demand for corn in India is expected to rise to 13.2 MMT. The breakup is as under
 
Poultry : 6.64 MMT
Food: 3.71 MMT
Livestock:1.46 MMT
Starch : 1.31 MMT
Brewery: 0.06 MMT
 
With the khariff production expected to be 9.4 - 10.4 MMT it will be a difficult situation for the end users sector, specially the poultry and livestock farmers who are dependent on stocks availability on a regular basis and is unable to store due to lack of finance. Sustained availability of the major raw material is a must for sustained development of the sector.
 
Cost of Labeling GM Foods - A Filipino Study
 
Govt. of Philippines has recently commissioned a study on "The cost implications of GM foods Labeling in the Philippines". The study was done by Augusto de Leon, Abraham Manalo & Fe Cielo Guilatco of (De Leon Consulting) and technical reports were supplied by Nina Gloriani-Barzaga

The study has tried to evaluate various labeling options as positive or negative, extensive or limited, mandatory or voluntary. The study has also analyzed cost implications  at Farm level, Food manufacturing sector and impact on consumers.
 
As per the study, mandatory labeling will require product differentiation between GM and non GM raw materials. This would entail segregation, IP (Identity preservation) and trace at farm level, which would result in increase in production cost and will also need parallel infrastructure. Estimates show that cost of producing certifiable GM free corn is about 12 percent higher than producing GM containing corn.
 
GM labeling will increase cost of manufacturing due to segregation and other costs. Need of two production lines, segregation of inputs and output, human resources etc will all add to the cost. The study estimates that the cost of manufacturing would increase by 12 percent.
 
As the cost of food manufacturing will increase by 12 percent, the same or a major part will have to be passed on to the customer, thus increasing food budgets. 
 
The detailed paper can be obtained from the following link.
 
 
Various studies conducted world wide have come up with similar numbers and this would also be true for India. What is needed is a capacity building exercise, which would build and maintain testing facilities and continue to train people to provide safe & healthy food to the people of the country and also the world.
 
I do hope the report is of value to you. Should you need information on any matters, please feel free to contact me  at my E mail
 
 
Kind Regards
Amit Sachdev
 

No comments: