WASDE report released
WASDE report was released last week (Nov 12, 2004). The US corn production is now estimated at 298.29 million metric tons, up by over 3.25 million metric tons. The average yield per acre is up from 4.02 tons to 4.06 tons. In 2002/03 the yield was 3.28 tons/acre and increased to 3.61 tons/acre in 2003/04.
The use of corn for ethanol production is estimated to be 34.80 million metric tons in 2004/05, up from 30.58 million metric tons in 2003/04. The use in 2002/03 was 25.30 million metric tons.
The report can be assessed at
Inflation is up again, Indian corn prices slide lower
Following the price hike in petrol and diesel prices, the inflation for the week ending Nov 06, 2004 was reported to be 7.76 percent. Though the agri produce prices were reported to be lower than the preceding week, the increase in inflation is due to the hike in petrol prices.
As more stocks reach the market, the India corn prices slide lower. The prices on Nov 19, 2004 at respective Mandi's (market yards) were reported as under:
Local Variety
Bagalkot (Karnataka): $71 per MT (Min.)
Kota (Rajasthan): $123 per MT (Max.)
Yellow (Cattle Feed)
Jamkandi (Karnataka): $88 per MT (Min.)
Rajkot (Gujarat): $133 per MT (Max)
Hybrid Local
Siraguppa (Karnataka): $88 per MT (Min)
Gowribidanor (Karnataka): $112 per MT (Max)
Climate change can affect grain production
Global warming is melting the Arctic ice faster than expected, and the world's oceans could rise by about 3 feet by 2100, swamping homes from Bangladesh to Florida, Robert Corell, chairman of the eight-nation Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), said on November 9, 2004.
The average temperature of major Asian cities could rise by 3 to 10 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, while longer droughts and flooding threaten rural areas, according to director of the UK Met Office's Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research.
China's first report on greenhouse gas emissions, warns that climate change will have an impact on its grain production. Reports suggest that the crop yields will decrease, but not all over, some parts may also benefit.
China's first report on greenhouse gas emissions, warns that climate change will have an impact on its grain production. Reports suggest that the crop yields will decrease, but not all over, some parts may also benefit.
"It can be seen from observations during the past 40 years that the runoff of China's main rivers has decreased. There has been a continuous drought in the North China Plain since the 1980s, while flood-related disasters have occurred frequently in southern China", the report says. "This impact has been enhanced significantly since the 1990s."
"Simulations indicate potential food production will decrease by 10 per cent due to climate change and extreme climate events between 2030 and 2050 under the present cropping system, crop varieties, and present management levels," the report said. "There will be an overall decreasing trend in wheat, rice and maize yields." Carbon dioxide levels, for example, had increased at a rate of about 4 per cent a year in the past 10 years.
UN statistics show that six of the world's 15 most polluted cities are in Asia, and the region generates a third of the world's carbon dioxide emissions. In Asia's developing regions, around 785 million people lack regular access to safe water.
Underlining the threat, director of the UK met agency says, "if sea levels exceeded the top end of predictions for the year 2100 by rising a meter, flood-prone Bangladesh would lose 17 percent of its land, according to preliminary indications.
What will happen in India??
A report from Dr.John Reilly of Natural Resources and Environment Division, Economic Research Service, USDA, Washington DC, USA suggests that in South East Asia including Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Maize yields could be effected by -65 to-10 percent, while Rice and Wheat yields could be effected by -22 to +28 percent and -61 to +67 percent.
In China the effect will be most profound on Rice, with yields effected between -78 to +28 percent. This includes rainfed and irrigated rice. Positive effects can be seen in NE and NW China, negative in most of the country, the report suggests.
Food for thought
As per the World Bank figures, India's population is growing at 1.6 percent per year and will reach 1.20 billion in 2012. Though as on date, India does not have a food grain shortage situation, but there have been situations when the total food grain production was much below the 200 million metric tons mark (174 million metric tons in 2002). The target for 2003 was 220 million metric tons and the production was only 212.05 million metric tons (GOI reports).
The per capita food grain availability was highest in 1999 at 213.8 kg per person. In 2002 it dropped to 169.2 kg per person. India would need to produce 257.88 million metric tons of food grains in 2012 to feed its growing population, considering a constant availability of 213.8 kg per person per year.
Think about this, what needs to be done. If you have any comments, please feel free to contact me.
Regards
