Indian maize prices and world coarse grain production
Some sections of the press reported a record Indian maize production of 16 MMT in 2004-05, much higher than last years (2003-04) 12.9 MMT. The report also suggested possibilities of 3 MMT of corn exports to the South East Asian countries and a tough fight to US and Chinese origin maize due to freight advantage.
To put things in the right perspective, total food grain production in Khariff season is reported to be down from 112 MMT in 2003-04 to 100 MMT in 2004-05, a reduction of almost 10.7 percent. Indian maize production for Khariff season is expected at 9.0 - 9.5 MMT, down from last yearÂ’s 11.1 MMT. India expects to produce a little higher Rabi corn crop (1.8 MMT) to be harvested in Feb 2005.
Local prices at the market yards are ruling higher than last year. During the week before Christmas last year (Dec 2003) maize prices were as under:
Andhra Pradesh Rs.4770 per MT ($ 107);
Gujarat Rs.5270 per MT ($118);
Maharashtra Rs. 4970 per MT ($ 111); and
Tamil Nadu Rs. 4780 per MT ($107).
Gujarat Rs.5270 per MT ($118);
Maharashtra Rs. 4970 per MT ($ 111); and
Tamil Nadu Rs. 4780 per MT ($107).
This year the prices in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh are averaging close to Rs.4900 per MT ($110). Adding packing, freight loading, unloading expenses, the FOB values will be close to $137 per MT. Prices in Gujarat are higher by almost Rs.1070 per MT ($24), while in Maharashtra the average prices are similar to the prices in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. In Tamil Nadu however, the prices are higher and are being quoted at Rs.5200 per MT ($117). Overall the prices are higher in all markets as compared to last year.
The projected U.S. price range for maize was is at U.S.$1.70 to U.S.$2.10 per bushel (U.S.$67 to U.S.$82.67 per ton).
US Gulf FOB prices are close to $95 per MT, US corn will be competitive in the South East Asian Region. China on the other had is expected to have a surplus of about 4 MMT of corn and with Thailand also in the market to sell corn (due to drop in Poultry production), it is unlikely that Indian corn will find favor in the South East Asian Market at such high FOB values.
Though reports suggest of some sales to Sri Lanka at $131–$134 FOB for contracts already signed, there is no hope that such prices will come again.
While IndiaÂ’s coarse grain production is down, USDA expects the world coarse grain production to be a record high at 989 MMT in 2004-05, almost 9 percent higher than 2003-04. Larger crops are projected for Ukraine (up 1.4 million tons), Canada and Mexico (each up 0.9 million tons), and China (up 0.5 million tons), with smaller increases projected for several other countries. Crop reductions are projected for Russia (down 0.7 million tons) and Australia (down 0.3 million tons). Global consumption is raised 2 million tons Global coarse grain stocks rise 3 million tons from last month and are up 23 million tons from last year. Stocks rise in the United States, South Africa (up 0.7 million tons), and Canada (up 0.6 million tons), with smaller increases forecast for many other countries. Stocks decline in Russia, the EU-25, Mexico, and several other countries.
Brazil to become No. 1 chicken exporter in the world (inputs from e-feed link)
Brazilian poultry farmers, sustained by opportunities in the Middle East and Asia, have increased their production and are expected to overtake the United States by end the fiscal year as the world's No. 1 chicken exporter.
In 1997, Brazil's chicken exports were less than a third those of the US. But production has taken off since the year 2000. Growth averaged 20 percent in the past 2 years, and Brazil presently exports to 127 different countries and controls 36 percent of the world share, according to the Brazilian Association of Chicken Exporters. The main markets are in the Middle East and Asia, particularly China.
When Asian producers were laid low by avian influenza earlier this year, their Brazilians competitors moved in, and exports to Asia went up 84 percent between January and October.
There are other, more established reasons for the rise. Brazil's industry is relatively new and therefore modern. Production costs are up to 25 percent lower than in the US. And sanitary controls have helped keep the country's birds free of pests.
On the other side of the globe, the poultry integrators in India are at a loss. In Jan 2004 the cost of production of Chicken (live) was just about Rs.2.03 per kg ($ 0.05) higher than US. In September 2004, the cost of production in India for integrators jumped to $ 0.70 per kg, a difference of almost $0.14 per kg from the US. Current costs remain at September 2004 levels even though Soymeal prices are very much lower, but corresponding maize prices are higher. The Brazilian cost of production during the whole year has been stagnant at about $0.41 – 0.43 per kg, which gives the Brazilian farmers an edge.
Does Asia have a choice ? (inputs from yahoo news)
The chicken-slaughtering days at wet — or live animal — markets may be numbered. As part of an effort to contain avian influenza, the deadly bird flu virus, the Hong Kong government is offering to buy out hundreds of chicken stalls and it wants to set up a centralized slaughterhouse.
The desperate fight to prevent bird flu from turning into a pandemic that could kill millions is threatening old cultural practices across Asia — from buying live birds at Hong Kong's markets to betting on rooster fights in Thailand to letting chickens and ducks run free in backyard farms across the region, including India.
Public health officials say Asia has no choice. The deadly H5N1 bird flu virus is infecting birds on farms and in the wild in at least eight countries: Cambodia; China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam. Can India be far behind?
So far, the bird flu has had trouble making the leap from animals to humans. When it does, it's lethal. The virus killed 32 of the 44 people with confirmed cases this year. Scientists worry that the virus will mutate into something that can infect humans more easily and be transmitted from human to human, potentially devastating populations with no immunity.
Is this the consequence of rising prosperity, some one may ask. People used to be satisfied with a bowl of rice and some vegetables. Now they want some meat with their dinners, specially chicken. Anyone who wants to make a little more money starts raising chickens in the backyard and there is no consideration for hygiene in sanitary controls in the backyard farms and the wet markets in most of the asian cities of Hong kong, Delhi and countries like Laos,, Combodia and Vietnam.
The alarm has sounded in many Asian countries. In Hong Kong, after the 1997 outbereak the wet markets were ordered to replace easily contaminated wooden cages with metal or plastic ones. In addition the Wet markets were required to close twice a month for cleaning, farms were ordered to vaccinate chickens, customers were forbidden from touching live poultry. (In the old days, some customers liked to pick up the birds, blow on their tail feathers and inspect their hind quarters to see if they were plump enough to make a good meal.). It is believed these measures were not enough.
Either the Asian poultry industry, including India has to mend its ways and change and become modern to provide safe meat to its populaions or perish.
It is better to change with times than perish !!
No comments:
Post a Comment