Commodity prices and diversification
The average price of Indian corn has increased in last one week, up from an average of Rs.5154 ($ 118.5) per ton of last week to Rs.5492 ($126) per ton. These prices are at the wholesale markets (mandis). Future prices in India were set at Rs.5295 ($121.7) per ton for March delivery, Rs.5546 ($128) per ton for April delivery, Rs.5605 ($129) per ton for May delivery. Spot prices from Nizamabad (Andhra Pradesh) and Davangere (Karnataka) ruled at Rs.5215 ($120) per ton and Rs.5179 ($119) per ton respectively.
Overall it has been a good year for the Indian maize farmer, who has been able to receive a price higher than the minimum support price announced by Government of India. The growth in poultry and starch sector is fuelling the demand for corn, which is in short supply, thus increasing the prices and leading to higher price realization by the maize farmer. Demand from neighbouring countries, especially Bangladesh and Nepal also fuels demand.
While on one side the Indian farmer is getting a better price, farmers in South Africa are fighting for survival. Prices have gone down and the stocks are record high. South Africa, which is the largest grain grower in Africa, primarily consumes white corn. In January the stocks were reported at record high of 5.23 MMT, about 26 percent higher than last year. The new crop is estimated at 10.52 MMT, a five year high as farmers increased the plantings by 4.4%. Maize was planted in 3.4 million hectares and the average productivity of 3.09 tons / hectare was expected. The prices fell by 46% to $78.71 per ton last month. July delivery is expected at $91.89 per ton. Farmers have been urged to cut planting by 30 percent.
Corn prices in US are also slowly going up. CBOT futures for May delivery of yellow corn were settled at $88.40 per ton, which makes the FOB values equivalent to $100 – 101 per ton US Gulf.
Asia to fuel demand of Maize (inputs from seed quest)
Reports suggest that the demand for maize in Asia is expected to increase tremendously in the next two decades, primarily due to higher growth in livestock sector, leading to higher requirement of animal feed. Demand is also increasing in the farming households in uplands of seven Asian countries covered by CIMMYT and International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). These farming households consume most of the maize they produce. The countries covered included, China, India, Indonesia, Nepal, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) estimates that demand for maize in all developing countries will surpass the demand for wheat and rice, with Asia accounting for over half of this growth, by 2020.
A message that emerged from the study in Vietnam clear, there is a need to help farmers apply sustainable practices to avoid degrading natural resources—particularly in fragile, marginal settings—as the demand intensifies.
In order to cater to the increased demand, Chinese scientists have cultivated a new species of high-yielding "super maize". The new strain is expected to produce 15 tons per hectare. Introduction of the new variety could significantly increase grain production in China, which is likely to become a net importer in near future.
Shrinking acreage, falling water tables and a population that is expected to grow significantly in Asia are questions that need to be answered, before any diversification in agriculture can be taken up. More land will be required to produce wheat and rice, to feed the growing population. Higher population, higher incomes, would mean more demand for meat, milk and eggs.
Avian Influenza update
The Vietnamese government reported 10 human cases of avian influenza to the World Health Organization on Friday, March 11, 2005, breaking a five-week silence on the human toll the strain known as H5N1 has taken in that country.
At least eight people from the northern province of Thai Binh have tested positive for H5N1 flu since this outbreak began in December 2004, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP), and two have died. Overall, 25 laboratory-confirmed cases, 14 of them fatal, have occurred in Vietnam and Cambodia since mid-December 2004, the World Health Organization (WHO) said today in an update on the case count.
Overall, the WHO has logged 69 human cases, including 46 deaths, since January 2004. Those include 51 cases and 33 deaths in Vietnam, 17 cases with 12 deaths in Thailand, and one fatal case in Cambodia.
The statement said cases have occurred in three phases: from January through March 2004 (35 cases, 24 deaths), from August through October 2004 (9 cases, 8 deaths), and December 2004 to the present (25 cases, 14 deaths).
WHO has warned that the Z strain of the Avian Influenza virus (H5N1) could very well cause a pandemic is proper measures are not taken.
For more information or comments please contact
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
The U.S. Grains Council is a private, non-profit partnership of farmers and agribusinesses committed to building and expanding international markets for U.S. barley, corn, grain sorghum and their products. The Council is headquartered in Washington, D.C., and has 10 international offices that oversee programs in nearly 80 countries. Support for the Council comes from its members and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
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