Commodity prices and target production
Last week saw the arrivals of corn start in Bihar and also some parts of UP. The prices at markets in both the states are clearly higher than the Minimum Support Prices announced by GOI. Whereas the price in the Bihar markets averages Rs.5307 ($ 122) per MT, the prices in Uttar Pradesh markets average Rs.6046 ($ 139) per MT. In Karnataka, Davangere markets are receiving stocks. The average price of corn for all states is about Rs.5872 ($135) per MT as against the MSP of Rs.5250 ($ 121) per MT announced by GOI.
Govt has released the fourth estimates for 2004-05 crop. The estimated food grain production has been pegged at 210.44 million metric tons, of which Khariff is estimated at 104.88 MMT and Rabi at 106.36 MMT. Corn production has been estimated at 14.87 Million Metric tons in corn. While the 2004 -05 estimates are being discussed and will be finalized later, the target for 2005-06 Khariff has been fixed at 114 MMT, almost 9.53 percent higher than Khariff output of 2004-05.
Reports suggest that Food Corporation of India (FCI) has stocks of over 0.5 MMT of Maize stocks at various locations and is ready to tender for the same.
Corn prices in US are stable. CBOT on Thursday, March 24, 2005 closed at $2.105 per bushel ($82.86 per MT) for May delivery and $2.185 per bushel ($86 per MT) for June delivery. FOB rates US gulf ranged from $98.5 per MT for May and $99 per MT for June delivery.
The co-products prices are also higher and Corn Gluten meal with 60 percent protein is priced at $300 per MT while the Corn Gluten Feed with 20 percent is priced at $ 99 per MT. These prices are FOB US Gulf.
Export corn projections for China have now been raised to 6 MMT and in South Africa the corn crop has been estimated at 11.136 MMT for 2004-05. Last year the crop was 9.48 MMT. This year (2004-05) white corn is estimated at 6.629 MMT, while yellow corn is estimated at 4.508 MMT.
Effects on the economies – courtesy Bird Flu
The Avian influenza crisis in South East Asia has claimed 45 lives, has already caused damages of more than $10 billion dollars to the economies of the most-seriously affected countries like Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia to name a few. The report by Bio era, an independent research and advisory services company, titled, Thinking Ahead: The Business Significance of an Avian Influenza Pandemic suggests that this is just the tip of the iceberg compared with the possible global economic consequences of a human influenza pandemic.
“According to the quantitative measures the group developed for assigning relative economic risk exposure to infectious disease outbreaks for countries in Asia. Hong Kong and Singapore are especially vulnerable to the initial economic shock waves that would ensue from a pandemic.” As per the report, “the secondary impacts on other countries, especially China, could also have far-reaching impacts for economies around the world, including the US.”
Other key findings in the report include:
• Avian influenza is the latest in a series of major livestock disease outbreaks that have caused more than $60 billion in economic damages worldwide over the past 15 years. The current crisis could accelerate the industrialization of the poultry industry in parts of Asia.
• Concerns about a possible influenza pandemic are already providing stimulus for increased spending and accelerated research and development efforts in some parts of the economy, ranging from custom microarray chips for rapid diagnostic testing to antiviral drugs.
• Governments around the world have recently made commitments totalling an estimated $1.4 billion to stockpile oseltamivir (Tamiflu)—an antiviral drug produced by pharmaceutical giant Roche.
• Manufacturers of flu vaccines are gearing up for what may be an unprecedented global demand for a vaccine effective against H5N1 variants, but it is not known whether the vaccines being developed now would be effective against the influenza strains that might emerge.
• New “DNA vaccines” offer an alternative to conventional production technology and could speed the vaccine industry’s ability to respond, but these technologies are not yet approved by FDA.
The bio-era study summarizes and interprets the latest science and economic analysis relevant to the current outbreak of Avian influenza (H5N1) in Southeast Asia, including the economic burdens imposed so far by the disease, and the risks and potential business impacts should the current outbreak develop into a global influenza pandemic. The study looks at how things might unfold under six very different but highly plausible scenarios for the evolution of the outbreak.
The report is a part of bio-era’s recently launched service “Thinking Ahead: Anticipating Early Impacts of an Avian Influenza Pandemic”, designed to support business and investment planning efforts in advance of a possible influenza pandemic. The executive summary and first few pages of the report are available for download from the bio-era website (http://www.bio-era.net) free of charge.
Bio Economic Research Associates (bio-era™) is a leading provider of independent research and advisory services on the emerging bio economy. Bio - era’s mission is to help decision-makers understand and respond to the risks and opportunities arising from the economic and societal impacts of human-induced changes to biological systems. The firm’s practice areas include biosecurity, bioenergy, and biotechnology.
Corn-based plastics struggle to find a market – the opportunity exists
Cargill Dow Joint Venture PLA manufacturing plant came on stream in 2002. New plants were expected to come up every 2 years, but none has been announced so far. In early 2005, Cargill purchased Dow’s share and renamed the venture NatureWorks LLC.
NatureWorks PLA has an advantage in packaging and non-woven fabrics as there has been some success in the past. In US, water is being sold in PLA bottles; organic salad is being packaged in PLA tubs.
The only appeal PLA has is its biodegradable quality and that it is based on renewable resources. This appeal will grow with the masses. Many believe that just being eco-friendly may not be sufficient for the success of PLA, it has to be cheaper.
For the fiber processor, PLA offers a good promise as it is compatible with polyester in blends and because it can be dyed at a much lower temperature than polyester. In times to come it will be cheaper than PET and its qualities will improve giving it an edge.
In Taiwan, bioplastics are being promoted as a suitable ingredient for use in food trays in the supermarkets. In India, there are few companies promoting biodegradable plastics, one such company is Kayani Bakery in Pune, which is providing biodegradable plastic carry bags to its customers. The bag is being manufactured by Degradable Poly Tech (DPT).
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
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