Commodity prices and its availability in 2005; Biosafety Protocol

Commodity prices and its availability in 2005

Prices of coarse cereals are stable for the last one week. The quotes at Market yards are as under:

Bajra – Pearl Millet – is being quoted @ Rs.3741 ($86) per ton in Haryana to highest in Gujarat @ Rs.7177 ($165) per ton. In Rajasthan the prices are quoted at Rs.6177 ($142) per ton.

Barley prices are the lowest in Haryana at Rs.4611 ($106) per ton while are highest in Gujarat @ Rs.5916 ($136) per MT. In Rajastan Barley is being traded at Rs.5568 ($128) per ton at the market yard.

Maize arrivals in most of the south Indian market yards has slowed down, while Bihar and UP are getting some large quantities. The prices are ranging from Rs.5002 ($115) per ton in Karnataka to a high of Rs.6612 ($152) in Rajasthan. In UP and Bihar the prices are Rs.5437 ($125) and Rs.5133 ($118) per ton respectively. In Tamil Nadu the prices are Rs.5611 ($129) per ton, higher than the March average prices.

CBOT prices for corn were lower than estimated on Friday. CBOT closed at $2.04 per bushel ($80.29 per ton) for May delivery and $2.12 per bushel ($83.44 per ton) for July delivery.

FAO in its recent report has forecast the grain production at 1.971 billion tonnes, including rice in milled terms. That figure is above the average of the past five years, but down slightly on last year's record level.

According to the report, the forecast was based on "conditions of crops already in the ground and planting intentions for those still to be sown later this year and assuming normal weather for the remainder of the 2005 cropping seasons."

As per the report, dry weather in several Asian countries since late last year has reduced the 2004 secondary paddy crop season, which is nearing its conclusion. The situation has led to international price increases, FAO noted.

However, prices for wheat and coarse grains remain below last year, reflecting large availabilities in the major exporting countries, generally favorable prospects for the 2005 crops and relatively slack demand, the agency noted.

If the current production forecasts hold true, FAO forecasts that world cereal output in 2005 may not be sufficient to meet next year's expected use without a draw-down of world carryover reserves. A notable reduction of 16 million tonnes in world stocks may in fact be needed, even if world cereal utilization in 2005-06 remains close to trend at some 1.955 billion tonnes.

"However, should use exceed trend, as has been the case this season, the bigger deficit would have to be met by larger draw-down of stocks, while cereal prices may also rise sharply," FAO said.

Food Outlook has revised upward its forecast for global cereal trade in 2004-05, mainly because of higher wheat imports.

"Based on the latest indications, international trade in cereals in 2004-05 is forecast at 231 million tonnes, up 3 million from the previous report but still slightly below the previous season," FAO said.

The meat market is expected to recover in 2005 as markets open up and exportable meat supplies increase. However, the report warns, meat markets in 2005 could still be influenced heavily by food safety concerns in the wake of Asian human fatalities due to Avian Influenza and bovine spongiform encephalopathy.

Bio safety Protocol (from a note circulated by Crop Life)

The Biosafety Protocol came into force on 11 September 2003. Currently 114 countries have become Party to the Protocol (ie: made it law in their own country), including the European Union countries, Mexico, Japan, Switzerland, Brazil and New Zealand, as well as most African and Asian nations. Many of these countries – which have voluntarily undertaken the legal obligations of the Protocol - do not have adequate systems in place to handle requests for imports or to comply with even the most basic Protocol requirements. Canada, China, Russia, Argentina, Australia and the United States (i.e., the major agricultural exporting countries) have not joined the Protocol.

In order that the trade is not affected, Biosafety Protocol implementation work should focus first and foremost on capacity building to bring all Parties into compliance rather than creating new obligations. As additional implementation matters are considered in the future, care must be taken to carefully balance the need for an adequate level of biosafety with the goal of ensuring the continued availability of the technology to those wishing to benefit from it.

In this regard, material exists to help national governments (e.g., CropLife International Reference Guide for Biosafety Frameworks Addressing the Release of Plant LMOs and Model Act: Proposed Provisions for a Transparent, Effective and Workable Biosafety Regulatory Framework, both available, free of charge, in English, Spanish and French at www.croplife.org and www.arentfox.com/biosafetymodelact.pdf).

Should you need any more information, please feel free to contact the undersigned

Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com