Coarse Grain Cereal Prices in India and US
All coarse grains (Pearl Millet, Barley, Grain Sorghum and Maize) in India are trading at prices higher than Minimum Support Price announced by government of India.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) was being traded at Rs.5700 – Rs.6900 ($131 – 159) per MT for different varieties. With in the states the commodity was traded at lowest in Andhra Pradesh at Rs.5785 ($133) per MT and highest in Maharahtra at Rs.7180 ($165) per MT. The MSP announced is Rs.5250 ($121) per MT.
Barley was being traded at Rs.4750 – Rs.4825 ($109 – 111)) per MT for different varieties. Within the states the commodity was traded in Rajasthan only at Rs.5350 ($123). The MSP announced is Rs.5400 ($124) per MT. The prices are expected to increase as the supplies are not coming into the market.
Grain Sorghum (Jowar) was being traded at Rs.6000 – Rs.9200 ($138 – 212) per MT for different varieties. With in the states the commodity was traded at lowest in Gujarat at Rs.6450 ($148) per MT and highest in Rajasthan at Rs.10475 ($241) per MT. The MSP announced is Rs.5250 ($121) per MT.
Corn (Maize) was being traded at Rs.5350 – Rs.5785 ($123 – 133) per MT for different varieties. With in the states the commodity was traded at lowest in Tamil Nadu at Rs.5475 ($126) per MT and highest in Maharahtra at Rs.6050 ($139) per MT. The MSP announced is Rs.5400 ($124) per MT.
The CBOT closed at $2.0425 per bushel ($80.40 per MT) on Thursday, May 12,2005. Average farm prices were pegged at $1.55-$1.95 per bushel ($61 -76.75 per MT) (for the 2005/2006 season which is well below $2.00-$2.10 per bushel ($78.72 - $82.65 per MT) for this season and $2.42 per bushel ($95.25 per MT) last season.
World corn ending stocks for the 2005/2006 season were pegged at 122.1 million tonnes as compared with 128.7 million tonnes for this season which was an upward revision from 124.68 million last month. China is expected to export 3 million tonnes as compared with 6 million this season.
Biotech Update
While there are still controversies on labelling etc, the one billionth cumulative acre of biotech crops was planted on May 09, 2005, as per Dr.Ross Kroves, economist and policy analyst with Truth About Trade & Technology (TATT). The information is based on the counter designed to track biotech crop acres as they are planted and harvested around the world.
With a billion acres planted – and in their 10th year of commercialization – seeds with biotech traits are the new safe and conventional source of food and could lead to food security in many developing countries, which have adopted the GM technology and are researching as well.
Using a two-year-old database, FAO-BioDeC, which has about 2,000 entries from 71 developing countries, the Food and Agricultural Agency (FAO) predicts that some of these countries could soon have new GM crops, such as virus-resistant papaya, sweet potato and cassava, as well as rice tolerant of such abiotic stresses as salinity and drought.
The data shows that Argentina, Brazil, China, Cuba, Egypt, India, Mexico and South Africa are leading the research advances on such crops as banana, cassava, cowpea, plantain, rice and sorghum, and on traits needed for food security, such as abiotic stress tolerance and quality.
The billion acres planted around the world clearly shows the economic as well as the environmental benefits of biotech crops. Analysis of producer experiences in both developed and developing countries indicate increased economic return as a direct result of biotech crop production. With improved traits, the use of the technology will increase and provide support to the farmers as well as consumers.
Imagine, how big is a BILLION ACRES. It is BIG.
A billion square acres would circle the earth at the equator more than 1587 times. It would reach the moon and return 164 times. A billion acres would reach the sun and be back and will still have some length left to spare. A billion acres (equivalent to 400 million hectares) would cover the entire land area of the European Union’s 25 countries. (World Factbook, 2004).
Younger, Vibrant India will move the meat demand
With only 2.4% of land mass, India supports about 17% of the world’s population. As per reports, India with an average age of 26 years against 33 years of China will enjoy a much bigger demographic growth. There will be a surge in the working population will be about 942 million in 2025. India’s youthfulness is going to drive its growth rates.
This some view as a demographic goldmine, as Indian economy will be the only economy that will be consistently growing at 5% annually until 2050. This would also encourage flow of capital.
As India gets younger, the consumer demands will change, perceptions of market would also change. Super store chains like Walmart, have already identified India as the next stop and retailing quality products and reaching the consumers will benefit all industries especially the processed food sector. Currently with only 2% of the food being processed, Indian industry and Government will have to work together to make available the best products at the best possible price to the Indian consumers.
A report from Australian Centre for International Agriculture Research Suggests, “Per person meat and seafood consumption is projected to increase by 157 per cent over the next 20 years, to reach 13 kg per head. But this remains extremely low compared with meat consumption in other countries. For all meats, production growth will be sufficient to satisfy consumption growth, with no need for imports. Consumption of dairy products will grow at a faster rate than production, leading to a substantial import dependency by 2020”.
The report also points towards some facts like, “There are negligible exports because of poor quality and hygiene standards”; “Integrators are fast taking over from independent growers. Live broilers are marketed at 1.75 kg per bird, with a feed conversion ratio of 1:8”; “A big growth in demand is expected, driven by population and per market opportunities capita income growth”; “India is traditionally a market for live birds (96 per cent in total) but its processing share is increasing rapidly.”
For the future the reports is little sceptical on inputs and points a a finger at Maize output. The report points out that that with poultry consuming over 50% of India’s maize crop, India will not be able to expand its maize production sufficiently to support the anticipated increase in production to meet projected demands.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
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