Corn prices advance up in India
Corn prices continue to rule higher and with no sign of relief in near future. Prices in areas like Sangli, Miraj which are the producing areas are ruling at Rs.6000 ($138) per MT delivered to the feed factory. Prices in other areas of Karnataka are also higher and arrivals are very slow. Arrivals in only few markets of Andhra Pradesh and Bihar are about 100 tons, while in Karnataka one or two markets are reporting arrivals of higher than 500 tons. Prices range from a low of Rs.4785 ($110) per MT in Bihar to a high of Rs.7130 ($164) per MT in Gujarat. Bihar Maize is available in Delhi at Rs.5900 ($135) per MT.
On the futures market, the prices for July and August delivery were quoted at Rs.5687 ($131) and Rs.5745 ($132) per MT respectively. On the spot markets the prices were close to Rs.5555 ($128) at Nizamabad and Rs.5275 ($121) at Davangere.
The monsoon on the other side has advanced, but it is not enough. Some areas of Maharashtra are covered, but the major area is left out. Monsoon also surpassed Hyderabad and reached Calcutta. The north is probably the most severely affected due to high temperatures and parched land. Only small areas seem to be cultivated where irrigation is available.
As the sowing gets delayed by over two weeks in most parts of the corn belts in south India, the production is likely to be effected, though it is very early to predict.
The US corn prices also continued to up and the CBOT closed at $2.35 per bushel ($92.51) per ton. The FOB US Gulf prices were hovering around $101 per MT. With freight prices coming down as well, trade to Asia is much cheaper.
The International Grains Council (IGC) at its recent meeting in London released crops outlook for the year 2005/06.
The Council reviewed the outlook for various grains, including, wheat and corn. With regard to wheat, the latest available forecasts pointed to some downturn from last year’s exceptional yields but global production would likely remain above-average. Official crop forecasts had recently been lowered in Australia, India, Europe and the United States, mainly because of excessively dry conditions, although timely rains had improved prospects in Australia.
As regards coarse grains, the world coarse grains harvest in 2005 is expected to decline from the previous year, even though yield assumptions in some countries, notably the United States, were above-trend. World closing stocks of maize at the end of 2005/06 were expected to increase again. Stocks were forecast unchanged in China, after large falls in recent years. In the longer term, these were likely to decline further as China’s domestic demand outstripped maize output. World trade in maize was forecast to rise in 2005/06, with Brazil expected to turn from an exporter to a net importer, and with higher exports for Argentina and the United States.
A recent study by the council, shows that trade in meat had steadily and substantially risen in recent years and that this represented some 45 MMT of indirect grain trade in 2004. IGC expects a continued strong growth in meat demand, especially in feed-deficit developing countries, and this would boost the meat trade rise further, with the grain equivalent projected to climb by an additional 10 MMT between now and 2010.
As per the “Food Outlook” report from FAO, the world grain trade is set to decline slightly in the 2005-06 marketing season.
FAO puts global cereal trade in 2005-06 at 230 million tonnes, or 1.3% below the previous season, mainly because of lower wheat import demand.
All you wanted to know about white sorghum
Must of us are aware of Jowar (Sorghum) as a poor man’s food. In India the production of grain sorghum has been declining, thus leading to price increases. Current prices of white sorghum are close to Rs.8000 to 8300 per MT ($184 – 191).
World over interest has been generated in white sorghum, especially in areas where people wish to lead a healthy lifestyle. Even in India there is a population who would like to eat products made out of white sorghum as there is a general belief that it is healthy to eat sorghum.
There are many people in the world who suffer from gluten allergy. Gluten is a collection of proteins found in wheat and other cereal grains. In the popular imagination, proteins are the safe and desirable components of food. Unfortunately, wheat and its close relatives, barley, rye and oats can also be cause of allergies. Immune responses do develop to gluten proteins.
Coeliac Disease (also known as gluten-sensitive enteropathy or coeliac sprue) is the best-recognized form of gluten allergy. It is a condition of the small intestine and is sometimes associated with other conditions. People with insulin-dependent diabetes, thyroid problems and ulcerative colitis, have an increased chance of developing coeliac disease
There is evidence that gluten allergy in some people contributes to or causes a surprising number of diseases. A short list includes asthma, eczema, hives, arthritis, chronic fatigue, fibromyalgia, cerebellar ataxia, diabetes 2, depression, migraine headaches, Crohn's disease, irritable bowel, lymphoma and gastrointestinal cancers. There is a distinct possibility that gluten allergy contributes to the development of autism, schizophrenia, several autoimmune disorders and glomerulonephritis.
U S Grains Council though its office in Japan has is working closely with Japan Confectionery Association to provide more information on white sorghum and the products that can be made from it. In a recent seminar, the participants tasted six different sorghum sweets without wheat, including pistachio and walnut cake, pumpkin roll, fresh cheese cake, peach and cream tart, strawberry chocolate sorghum puff, and walnut cookie.
If there is any interest in white sorghum and what to make from white sorghum, please download the handbook from the council’s website: www.grains.org, or directly go the link below.
http://www.grains.org/buying/publications/Sorghum%20Handbook.pdf
More than half of the world Cotton will be GM (from Bloomberg.com)
As per the report from Rabobank, more than half the world's cotton may be grown from genetically modified crops within the next two years as farmers in India and Brazil embrace the new technology that promises increased incomes and higher output.
Currently about 35% of the cotton produced in the world is GM, mostly from Monsanto’s Bollgard II and other gene related varieties. The share will increase to 50% by 2006-07 as per the report.
The new technology strains can withstand pest attack, require less pesticide and a lower pesticide cost will reduce costs of production, boosting incomes. Rising sales of the biotechnology in countries such as Brazil may bolster supplies amid a global glut of the fiber.
“`The expansion of GM production, particularly in regions which already operate under a fairly low-cost production system, will have long-term implications upon the marginal cost of production and, subsequently, prices,”' Rabobank said in a May cotton industry report.
Prices on the New York Board of Trade, the world's biggest cotton futures market, slumped 40 percent last year after larger crops in the U.S. and China swelled global supplies. As per USDA report, the global output may exceed consumption by 2.5 million tons in the year ending July 31.
India, the world's third-largest cotton-grower, planted 550,000 hectares (1.36 million acres) of biotech crops last year, up 460 percent from a year earlier, Rabobank said.
“Some estimates indicate that this area may officially double in 2005-06 to 1 million hectares and, coupled with a higher proportion of better performing seeds, there is talk of India surpassing U.S. production in the near future to become the second-largest cotton producer globally behind China,”' the report said.
In the U.S., 54 percent of cotton crops were planted with gene-altered seeds, according to Rabobank. The proportion rises to 76 percent in China and 80 percent in Australia.
Brazil, the world's fifth-largest cotton-grower, will probably become the largest growth market for biotech cotton after the government officially approved the release of genetically modified varieties in March, Rabobank said.
“The uptake is likely to be quick,” the bank said. “The inherent cost savings will encourage the use of GM seed”' and strengthen the South American country's cotton exports.
According to the report, the cost of producing a pound of cotton in Brazil has risen to 50 U.S. cents from 43 U.S. cents two years ago, partly as higher energy prices drove up the cost of ammonia and other fertilizers,
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
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