Grain Production and Monsoon; Biotech Research roundup

Grain Production and Monsoon

Most areas of India have received above normal rainfall in the month of July and most of the reservoirs are almost full. The rainfall is about 16% above the normal, but the distribution on rainfall is the main issue. The current widespread rains have also caused huge losses of human lives as well and stocks. Areas that have been affected by floods include Western Maharahstra, Konkan, Gujarat, North Karnataka and Parts of Madhya Pradesh. Parts of Bihar, West Bengal, Assam and Mizoram.

Till a week ago there were reports of delayed monsoon in Karnataka, West Bengal and Rajasthan and currently North Karanataka specially Belgaum are bearing the brunt of heavy rainfall and release of water from dams.

Though on paper the total area under cereals has been higher than last year, which heavy rains in parts of Maharahstra, Karnataka and Gujarat which are cereals growing areas as well, it is unlikely that the farmers will be in a position to sow again. As the flood waters recede they take with it the top soil which contains the organic matter. Reports appearing in a section of press indicate Area under cotton, coarse cereals (with exception of maize), sugarcane and jute has increased as compared to the same period in previous year.

The prices of maize are stable as most of the end users have covered themselves in advance. But with the demand rising the spot prices area also higher. Report suggest spot prices are up to Rs.5616 ($129) at Davangere, while in Nizamabad the spot prices have broken the Rs.6000 ($138) per ton barrier are up to Rs.6096 ($140) per MT. These prices are at market yards and additional costs of handling and transport will need to be added, which will further add to the cost.

The future price for Aug is also up to Rs.6030 ($138.6) per MT, while for sept the prices are ruling a little lower at Rs.5890 ($135) per MT.

While it is still too early to access the damage caused by rains in Western Maharashtra, Gujarat and North Karnataka in the cereal belts, the prices are showing an upward trend. Also with delayed rains in Rajasthan, parts of Madhya Pradesh and Bihar it is unlikely that cereal crop will be sown in those areas as well, which will make meeting the requirements very difficult.

The worst effected areas in North Karnataka include Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Raichur, Gulbarga and Bagalkot districts. Jamkhandi is amonst the worst effected areas. All the above areas are major suppliers of maize to Karnataka from where it moves to Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and other parts of the country.

The high temperature and low moisture in US is likely to take its toll and effect the grain production. Reports suggest the production of corn down to 9.99 Billion bushels (253 MMT) down from record production of 299 MMT in 2004. The average productivity is also expected to be down to 135.7 bushels/acre (3.44 tons/acre) down from over 4 tons/acre in 2004.

The corn prices in US are stable. CBOT closed on Friday at $2.205 per bushel ($86.80 per MT) for Sept delivery, down from July 29 close of $93.10 per ton. The FOB value would be close to $102 per ton.

The detailed USGC market report can be found at
http://www.grains.org/buying/market_perspectives/mp_08-05-05.pdf

Biotech Research roundup (from seed quest)

Chinese scientists have been successful in breeding genetically modified rice to grow well in soil that has low levels of the mineral phosphate. The new rice will reduce the reliance of Phospate fertilizers, thus reducing some cost.

The gene called “osptf1” became active when rice was grown in low levels of phosphate. The gene is copied and inserted it into a different variety of rice to create genetically-modified (GM) plants that could tolerate low phosphate levels.

When grown in such conditions, the GM rice plants produced longer roots and took up 30 per cent more phosphate than non-GM rice plants in the same environment.

As one of the researchers, Guo Longbiao of the China National Rice Research Institute, put it, “osptf1 was derived from rice rather than a different plant species, new rice varieties containing the gene could be developed by combining traditional breeding with molecular techniques.”

Although this method would take several years longer than using genetic modification on its own, said Guo, it could be used in areas where the sale of GM rice has not been authorised.

Guo added that new rice varieties with the osptf1 gene would be important in many developing countries. When phosphate fertilisers are used in such countries, yields increase but at a high cost to farmers and to the environment, he said.

Phosphate fertilisers, which often contain the toxins fluoride and arsenic, are among the most environmentally damaging of all fertilisers. Their manufacture can cause atmospheric pollution, and the fertilisers themselves can pollute soil and rivers. (Reference: Plant Physiology doi:10.1104/pp.105.063115)

In India, rice research (to produce GM rice) is being carried out at various location including New Delhi, Calcutta, Madurai, Coimbatore, Hyderabadm Baroda and Bangalore. In most cases the research involves inserting a Bt gene or producing a plant which is resistant to viruses, or to produce rice with high Vitamin A content.

In India at present research is being done in over 33 crops, which includes fruits, vegetables, cereals, tubers etc and these are at difference stages.

Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com