Commodity prices & Production estimates
This week is a mixed bag. Same time last month there was heavy rainfall in Maharashtra, Karnataka and surrounding areas and there was loss to agriculture in these parts. This week the monsoon has subdued and as per the report from the Indian Meterological Department, the overall deficit at this point is 3%. Areas that have been put under moisture stress watch are Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Western Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam.
Due to the erratic monsoon, the area under coarse cereals and oilseeds has dipped. As per Ministry of Agriculture reports Maize area is down from last years 7.2 mill ha to 6.9 mill ha. Industry estimates the coverage at 6.7 mill ha. The monsoon and the dry spell will also effect the productivity, but it is too early to say anything about it. First estimates available put the figure 1.7 – 1.75 tons/ha, putting the production at 11.3 – 11.7 MMT. A lot would depend on the monsoon again and if reports from National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) are to be taken, the monsoon is already in break-like phase again and if no rains are there, the standing crop in the rainfed areas will be severely effected.
Area under Grain Sorghum (Jowar) is also down to 3.93 mill ha, while Pearl Millet (Bajra) is down to 8.72 mill ha from 8.97 mill ha last year. The area under Cotton (8.13 mill ha), pulses (9.65 mill ha) and sugarcane (4.19 mill ha) has gone up from last year 7.86 mill ha for Cotton, 8.38 mill ha for pulses and 3.75 mill ha of Sugarcane respectively.
The prices of corn are in the spot Market have risen tremendously is the last one month. Corn in Davangere (Karnataka) is now offered at Rs.5640 ($130) per MT as against Rs.5500 ($126) per MT, an increase of 2.5 percent. While in Nizamabad the prices have gone up by 4.6 percent, The prices are up from Rs.5830 ($134) per MT to Rs.6100 per MT ($140) per MT.
The prices in US are down and the CBOT closed at $80.27 per MT on Friday (Aug 26) lower by $2.56 per MT from last week (Aug 19). The FOB US Gulf price for September delivery is quoted at $99 per MT, while for October it is quoted at $101 per MT. With freights going up slightly due to higher demand and high fuel prices, it will be a little expensive to move commodities.
Barley prices in the US for October & November delivery are quoted at $110-120, FOB PNW. (Pacific North West).
The detailed USGC Market perspectives can be seen at
http://www.grains.org/buying/market_perspectives/mp_8-26-05.pdf
The International Grains Council (IGC) estimates, released on Aug 24, 2005 puts the 2005/2006 wheat production at 610 MMT as against 608 MMT set last month, up by 2 MMT. This is due to increase in the estimates for China, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan and Australia, which will cover dips in production in EU, Pakistan, US and Argentina.
The coarse cereals production has been reduced from 955 MMT of last month to 945 MMT and most of this has been attributed to corn, the production of which is estimated at 661 MMT. USDA estimated the world production at 657 MMT on Aug 12, 2005.
IGC estimates the barley production at 137 MMT as against 133 MMT by USDA. The production is still below last year’s record production of 152 MMT.
Use of renewable resources to increase
Ethanol produced from Grains, poly bags produced from Grains would be the new mantra. With the crude prices going up again and may touch as high as $100 per barrel if reports are to be believed, many economies will not be able to sustain the pressure.
With Government of Maharshtra banning use of plastic bags after the last month flooding being attributed to the petro based plastic bags which do not degrade and block drains etc, poly bags made out of Poly Lactic Acid from Starch (grain) would be more eco friendly. The product range that can be made out of PLA includes, egg trays, water bottles, sheets, food containers. Even panel for car inside, CD covers etc can be made out of PLA granules. The product can be remoulded as a normal Poly Propylene (PP) product, but will be eco friendly. Using paper bags would be an option, but to make paper again trees will need to be felled and paper can not sustain moisture.
Ethanol too can be produced from renewable sources like grains. The first plant in India on commercial lines has come up in Andhra Pradesh by Ammana Bio Pharma Limited and will use sweet sorghum (Sorghum bicolour). The company claims that the raw material cost per unit with use of sweet sorghum will get reduced by 40% compared to use of molasses.
There are many reports which site that ethanol production has a negative energy balance, but there are more reports which suggest that ethanol has a positive energy balance. At the forum organized last week, USDA experts gave a final verdict, “Ethanol's net energy balance is strongly positive, with the fuel producing at least 35 percent to 67 percent more energy than is consumed in making it”. That can go much higher, they said, under some limited circumstances. USDA and other federal studies, as well as University of Nebraska energy audits, found ethanol had a positive energy balance of between 25 percent and 65 percent.
The energy balance exercise is more complex than thought. The energy derived from burning a litre of ethanol can be measured easily. But production inputs include everything from the energy used to produce and spread fertilizer to the cost of bringing the grain to the ethanol plant and then to the gasoline blender. The energy needed to make tractors and combines to harvest the grain is factored in, as is the cost of building the ethanol plant.
In this whole exercise up-to-date figures are very important. New corn varieties, currently in the market in US, yield more and require less attention by machinery, thus using less energy per ton to produce. Modern ethanol manufacture, experts say, uses drastically less energy than in the past.
When ethanol is made, a by-product is dry distiller's grain, an efficient cattle feed. This is at least a partial answer to those who are concerned because a food grain, corn, is being used not to feed the hungry but to make energy.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Saturday, August 27, 2005
Saturday, August 20, 2005
Grain Prices at Mandi Stable; Test For Aflatoxin approved by GIPSA; Broiler Growth India
Grain Prices at Mandi Stable
The monsoon is progressing well and now is good in east India, which is good news. Over the last few days, Central India has received some rains which may not be enough.
Though the commodity prices are stable at Mandi level (Market yard), the arrivals are very slow.
Barley: The mid week saw the some arrivals in Rajasthan, but overall the arrivals were slow. The prices in Rajasthan were close to Rs.6350 ($146) per ton while in Uttar Pradesh the prices were at Rs.6790 ($156) per MT.
Jowar:The arrivals are now slowing down in almost all production areas and some arrivals were seen in Karnataka in mid week. The highest price though was in Rajasthan Rs.8400 ($193) followed by Gujarat at Rs.8050 ($185) per MT.
Maize: There are still some stocks available in Bihar and arrivals were good in Khagaria and Muzzfarpur. Some arrivals were also seen in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. The spot prices in Nizamabad and Davangere are stable at Rs.6000 ($138) and Rs.5660 ($130) per MT respectively.
Prices in US have come down again and the FOB price (US gulf) were reported under $100 per MT for September delivery. The October delivery was higher by about $3 per MT.
The freight rates showed little gains this week due to increased demand from US and higher fuel prices.
The detailed US market report can be seen at the link below:
http://www.grains.org/buying/market_perspectives/mp_08-19-05.pdf
On the world market the big question is when will China start importing maize. The USDA reports a 3.10 MMT export potential from China, while the market observers believe it to be too high, though the export is down from last year (2004-05) figure of 7.00 MMT. China’s corn production is expected to be 127 MMT as against 130 MMT last year (2004-05).
Test For Aflatoxin approved by GIPSA
A fast new aflatoxin test for grain has been approved by the USDA’s Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration (GIPSA). The Rapid One Step Assay (ROSA®) Aflatoxin (Quantitative) can test four samples in 15 minutes, eight samples in 19 minutes and 16 samples in less than 30 minutes, offering U.S. grain traders an efficient option for testing grain before shipping. ROSA Aflatoxin can detect aflatoxin from zero to 100 parts per billion (PPB). According to its manufacturer, Charm Sciences, the new test is the first quantitative lateral flow test developed to detect the presence of aflatoxins in corn/grain samples. Two qualitative aflatoxin tests, Reveal® for Aflatoxin (5 to 100 PPB) from Neogen and The AgraStrip™ (20 PPB) from Romer, have also been approved in recent weeks.
Broiler Growth India
In the year 2004-05, around 1537 million broilers were placed in India. The placements are expected to be 1695 million in the year 2005-06, a growth of approximately 10.29%. In 2004-05, South had the highest share of 40.60% followed by North at 24.53%. East and West had a share of 19.65% and 15.22% respectively.
Within the regions, North India is expected to show a maximum growth of 11.03% followed by West India at 10.67%. South and East are expected to grow at 10% and 9.67% respectively.
Within the North the highest growth is expected in Uttar Pradesh (13.3%) and Rajasthan (12.65%) while in the Western region, Maharashtra is expected to grow at 11.43% followed by Goa, Daman and Diu at 10%.
In the Southern Region the highest growth in expected in Karnataka (10.71%) followed by Andhra Pradesh (10.53%), as more movement is expected from Tamil Nadu to these area. Tamil nadu is expected to see a growth of 9.38%. Within the east the North Eastern states have a high potential but the placements are expected to be small as compared to other states. The highest growth is expected in Orissa (12.5%), followed by Chattisgarh at 12%.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
The monsoon is progressing well and now is good in east India, which is good news. Over the last few days, Central India has received some rains which may not be enough.
Though the commodity prices are stable at Mandi level (Market yard), the arrivals are very slow.
Barley: The mid week saw the some arrivals in Rajasthan, but overall the arrivals were slow. The prices in Rajasthan were close to Rs.6350 ($146) per ton while in Uttar Pradesh the prices were at Rs.6790 ($156) per MT.
Jowar:The arrivals are now slowing down in almost all production areas and some arrivals were seen in Karnataka in mid week. The highest price though was in Rajasthan Rs.8400 ($193) followed by Gujarat at Rs.8050 ($185) per MT.
Maize: There are still some stocks available in Bihar and arrivals were good in Khagaria and Muzzfarpur. Some arrivals were also seen in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. The spot prices in Nizamabad and Davangere are stable at Rs.6000 ($138) and Rs.5660 ($130) per MT respectively.
Prices in US have come down again and the FOB price (US gulf) were reported under $100 per MT for September delivery. The October delivery was higher by about $3 per MT.
The freight rates showed little gains this week due to increased demand from US and higher fuel prices.
The detailed US market report can be seen at the link below:
http://www.grains.org/buying/market_perspectives/mp_08-19-05.pdf
On the world market the big question is when will China start importing maize. The USDA reports a 3.10 MMT export potential from China, while the market observers believe it to be too high, though the export is down from last year (2004-05) figure of 7.00 MMT. China’s corn production is expected to be 127 MMT as against 130 MMT last year (2004-05).
Test For Aflatoxin approved by GIPSA
A fast new aflatoxin test for grain has been approved by the USDA’s Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration (GIPSA). The Rapid One Step Assay (ROSA®) Aflatoxin (Quantitative) can test four samples in 15 minutes, eight samples in 19 minutes and 16 samples in less than 30 minutes, offering U.S. grain traders an efficient option for testing grain before shipping. ROSA Aflatoxin can detect aflatoxin from zero to 100 parts per billion (PPB). According to its manufacturer, Charm Sciences, the new test is the first quantitative lateral flow test developed to detect the presence of aflatoxins in corn/grain samples. Two qualitative aflatoxin tests, Reveal® for Aflatoxin (5 to 100 PPB) from Neogen and The AgraStrip™ (20 PPB) from Romer, have also been approved in recent weeks.
Broiler Growth India
In the year 2004-05, around 1537 million broilers were placed in India. The placements are expected to be 1695 million in the year 2005-06, a growth of approximately 10.29%. In 2004-05, South had the highest share of 40.60% followed by North at 24.53%. East and West had a share of 19.65% and 15.22% respectively.
Within the regions, North India is expected to show a maximum growth of 11.03% followed by West India at 10.67%. South and East are expected to grow at 10% and 9.67% respectively.
Within the North the highest growth is expected in Uttar Pradesh (13.3%) and Rajasthan (12.65%) while in the Western region, Maharashtra is expected to grow at 11.43% followed by Goa, Daman and Diu at 10%.
In the Southern Region the highest growth in expected in Karnataka (10.71%) followed by Andhra Pradesh (10.53%), as more movement is expected from Tamil Nadu to these area. Tamil nadu is expected to see a growth of 9.38%. Within the east the North Eastern states have a high potential but the placements are expected to be small as compared to other states. The highest growth is expected in Orissa (12.5%), followed by Chattisgarh at 12%.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Saturday, August 13, 2005
Grain Prices surge; MON 863 cleared by EU for feed use
Grain Prices surge
Though the monsoon has been good in most parts of India and Government of India reports a higher grain production, market sentiments prove otherwise. Midweek saw a surge in prices in almost all commodities across all states though the future prices were a little low. The spot prices on the other hand very a little higher at Rs.6100 ($140) per MT at Nizamabad (Andhra Pradesh) and Rs.5640 ($130) at Davangere (Karnataka).
Indications are for a low crop of coarse cereals. The total area as per GOI is still not covered (21.6 Mill Hac against 22.2 mill hac last year), of which Maize is 6.8 mill hac against 7.26 mill hac last year. But with areas like Maharahstra, North Karnataka which produce bulk of maize effected and with no time for re-sowing the production is likely to be effected.
In the US the WASDE report was out on Aug 12, 2005. The report indicates a lower production of corn for the year 2005/06. Of the total area of 81.6 million acres planted 74.4 million acres is expected to be harvested (91.17%), with an average production of 3.535 tons/acres, producing 263 million metric tons of corn. This is lower than expected in July report by almost 11 MMT, due to decreased moisture and drought conditions prevailing in US.
Of the total production about 95.25 MMT (36.21%) is expectedto be used for feed and residual purposes, while food, seed and industrial sector are expected to utilize 72.90 MMT (27.5%) of the production. Ethanol use is expected to remain same as in July report at 38.10 MMT (14.48%), but the end stocks will to 48.26 MMT, almost 8.64 MMT reduction from the July report.
The detailed report can be found at
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/waobr/wasde-bb/2005/wasde08.txt
The prices in US also came down. CBOT closed at $85.79 per MT for September delivery, which translates to $105 per MT FOB US gulf.
MON 863 cleared by EU for feed use (from The Guradian)
Despite strong opposition from half of EU 25 countries, the European commission cleared imports of genetically modified maize, MON 863 for use as animal feed. A 10 year 10-year licence was granted to Monsanto to export the maize.
This is the third GM product to be approved by the EU since the end of its six-year moratorium in April last year, and it comes after a tortuous authorisation process. The variety has been under the scanner for last two months and several EU governments and environmental activists have consistently questioned the safety of the maize variety known as MON 863.
In September, EU health ministers will vote on whether to clear the same maize for human consumption. Environmental groups argue that GM crops have not been proved to be safe for human consumption and may contaminate other crops, but the commission insisted the maize was subject to "a rigorous pre-market risk assessment".
Though the question is still debatable and needs serious education effort from companies engaged in biotech research, non government organizations and governments who are all part of the system. In the last 10 years there has been no report when a biotech crop has affected the health of the living being (human or animal) or has caused any effect on the diversity of the countries flora and fauna.
Even reports from Mexico indicate that there are no transgenic in the native landraces of maize in Oaxaca. The Us and Mexican researchers screened for two transgene elements that are present in all commercialized biotech maize varieties using highly sensitive PCR-based markers. No transgene sequences were found in 125 fields and 18 localities in the State of Oaxaca during 2003 and 2004. The transgenes were not present in spite of approved import of
US and Canadian corn grain into Mexico.
Biotech crops are more thoroughly studied, regulated than regular crops. Advantages seen by farmers in countries like China, US, Argentina, South Africa, India can not be sidelined.
In China, biotech cotton has helped reduce the insecticide use to two thirds. In US and Argentina farmers ahev adopted technologies that reduce soil erosion. In India, South Africa and China, biotech Cotton has helped small farmers in getting better yields and increase net incomes.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Though the monsoon has been good in most parts of India and Government of India reports a higher grain production, market sentiments prove otherwise. Midweek saw a surge in prices in almost all commodities across all states though the future prices were a little low. The spot prices on the other hand very a little higher at Rs.6100 ($140) per MT at Nizamabad (Andhra Pradesh) and Rs.5640 ($130) at Davangere (Karnataka).
Indications are for a low crop of coarse cereals. The total area as per GOI is still not covered (21.6 Mill Hac against 22.2 mill hac last year), of which Maize is 6.8 mill hac against 7.26 mill hac last year. But with areas like Maharahstra, North Karnataka which produce bulk of maize effected and with no time for re-sowing the production is likely to be effected.
In the US the WASDE report was out on Aug 12, 2005. The report indicates a lower production of corn for the year 2005/06. Of the total area of 81.6 million acres planted 74.4 million acres is expected to be harvested (91.17%), with an average production of 3.535 tons/acres, producing 263 million metric tons of corn. This is lower than expected in July report by almost 11 MMT, due to decreased moisture and drought conditions prevailing in US.
Of the total production about 95.25 MMT (36.21%) is expectedto be used for feed and residual purposes, while food, seed and industrial sector are expected to utilize 72.90 MMT (27.5%) of the production. Ethanol use is expected to remain same as in July report at 38.10 MMT (14.48%), but the end stocks will to 48.26 MMT, almost 8.64 MMT reduction from the July report.
The detailed report can be found at
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/waobr/wasde-bb/2005/wasde08.txt
The prices in US also came down. CBOT closed at $85.79 per MT for September delivery, which translates to $105 per MT FOB US gulf.
MON 863 cleared by EU for feed use (from The Guradian)
Despite strong opposition from half of EU 25 countries, the European commission cleared imports of genetically modified maize, MON 863 for use as animal feed. A 10 year 10-year licence was granted to Monsanto to export the maize.
This is the third GM product to be approved by the EU since the end of its six-year moratorium in April last year, and it comes after a tortuous authorisation process. The variety has been under the scanner for last two months and several EU governments and environmental activists have consistently questioned the safety of the maize variety known as MON 863.
In September, EU health ministers will vote on whether to clear the same maize for human consumption. Environmental groups argue that GM crops have not been proved to be safe for human consumption and may contaminate other crops, but the commission insisted the maize was subject to "a rigorous pre-market risk assessment".
Though the question is still debatable and needs serious education effort from companies engaged in biotech research, non government organizations and governments who are all part of the system. In the last 10 years there has been no report when a biotech crop has affected the health of the living being (human or animal) or has caused any effect on the diversity of the countries flora and fauna.
Even reports from Mexico indicate that there are no transgenic in the native landraces of maize in Oaxaca. The Us and Mexican researchers screened for two transgene elements that are present in all commercialized biotech maize varieties using highly sensitive PCR-based markers. No transgene sequences were found in 125 fields and 18 localities in the State of Oaxaca during 2003 and 2004. The transgenes were not present in spite of approved import of
US and Canadian corn grain into Mexico.
Biotech crops are more thoroughly studied, regulated than regular crops. Advantages seen by farmers in countries like China, US, Argentina, South Africa, India can not be sidelined.
In China, biotech cotton has helped reduce the insecticide use to two thirds. In US and Argentina farmers ahev adopted technologies that reduce soil erosion. In India, South Africa and China, biotech Cotton has helped small farmers in getting better yields and increase net incomes.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Tuesday, August 09, 2005
Grain Production and Monsoon; Biotech Research roundup
Grain Production and Monsoon
Most areas of India have received above normal rainfall in the month of July and most of the reservoirs are almost full. The rainfall is about 16% above the normal, but the distribution on rainfall is the main issue. The current widespread rains have also caused huge losses of human lives as well and stocks. Areas that have been affected by floods include Western Maharahstra, Konkan, Gujarat, North Karnataka and Parts of Madhya Pradesh. Parts of Bihar, West Bengal, Assam and Mizoram.
Till a week ago there were reports of delayed monsoon in Karnataka, West Bengal and Rajasthan and currently North Karanataka specially Belgaum are bearing the brunt of heavy rainfall and release of water from dams.
Though on paper the total area under cereals has been higher than last year, which heavy rains in parts of Maharahstra, Karnataka and Gujarat which are cereals growing areas as well, it is unlikely that the farmers will be in a position to sow again. As the flood waters recede they take with it the top soil which contains the organic matter. Reports appearing in a section of press indicate Area under cotton, coarse cereals (with exception of maize), sugarcane and jute has increased as compared to the same period in previous year.
The prices of maize are stable as most of the end users have covered themselves in advance. But with the demand rising the spot prices area also higher. Report suggest spot prices are up to Rs.5616 ($129) at Davangere, while in Nizamabad the spot prices have broken the Rs.6000 ($138) per ton barrier are up to Rs.6096 ($140) per MT. These prices are at market yards and additional costs of handling and transport will need to be added, which will further add to the cost.
The future price for Aug is also up to Rs.6030 ($138.6) per MT, while for sept the prices are ruling a little lower at Rs.5890 ($135) per MT.
While it is still too early to access the damage caused by rains in Western Maharashtra, Gujarat and North Karnataka in the cereal belts, the prices are showing an upward trend. Also with delayed rains in Rajasthan, parts of Madhya Pradesh and Bihar it is unlikely that cereal crop will be sown in those areas as well, which will make meeting the requirements very difficult.
The worst effected areas in North Karnataka include Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Raichur, Gulbarga and Bagalkot districts. Jamkhandi is amonst the worst effected areas. All the above areas are major suppliers of maize to Karnataka from where it moves to Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and other parts of the country.
The high temperature and low moisture in US is likely to take its toll and effect the grain production. Reports suggest the production of corn down to 9.99 Billion bushels (253 MMT) down from record production of 299 MMT in 2004. The average productivity is also expected to be down to 135.7 bushels/acre (3.44 tons/acre) down from over 4 tons/acre in 2004.
The corn prices in US are stable. CBOT closed on Friday at $2.205 per bushel ($86.80 per MT) for Sept delivery, down from July 29 close of $93.10 per ton. The FOB value would be close to $102 per ton.
The detailed USGC market report can be found at
http://www.grains.org/buying/market_perspectives/mp_08-05-05.pdf
Biotech Research roundup (from seed quest)
Chinese scientists have been successful in breeding genetically modified rice to grow well in soil that has low levels of the mineral phosphate. The new rice will reduce the reliance of Phospate fertilizers, thus reducing some cost.
The gene called “osptf1” became active when rice was grown in low levels of phosphate. The gene is copied and inserted it into a different variety of rice to create genetically-modified (GM) plants that could tolerate low phosphate levels.
When grown in such conditions, the GM rice plants produced longer roots and took up 30 per cent more phosphate than non-GM rice plants in the same environment.
As one of the researchers, Guo Longbiao of the China National Rice Research Institute, put it, “osptf1 was derived from rice rather than a different plant species, new rice varieties containing the gene could be developed by combining traditional breeding with molecular techniques.”
Although this method would take several years longer than using genetic modification on its own, said Guo, it could be used in areas where the sale of GM rice has not been authorised.
Guo added that new rice varieties with the osptf1 gene would be important in many developing countries. When phosphate fertilisers are used in such countries, yields increase but at a high cost to farmers and to the environment, he said.
Phosphate fertilisers, which often contain the toxins fluoride and arsenic, are among the most environmentally damaging of all fertilisers. Their manufacture can cause atmospheric pollution, and the fertilisers themselves can pollute soil and rivers. (Reference: Plant Physiology doi:10.1104/pp.105.063115)
In India, rice research (to produce GM rice) is being carried out at various location including New Delhi, Calcutta, Madurai, Coimbatore, Hyderabadm Baroda and Bangalore. In most cases the research involves inserting a Bt gene or producing a plant which is resistant to viruses, or to produce rice with high Vitamin A content.
In India at present research is being done in over 33 crops, which includes fruits, vegetables, cereals, tubers etc and these are at difference stages.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Most areas of India have received above normal rainfall in the month of July and most of the reservoirs are almost full. The rainfall is about 16% above the normal, but the distribution on rainfall is the main issue. The current widespread rains have also caused huge losses of human lives as well and stocks. Areas that have been affected by floods include Western Maharahstra, Konkan, Gujarat, North Karnataka and Parts of Madhya Pradesh. Parts of Bihar, West Bengal, Assam and Mizoram.
Till a week ago there were reports of delayed monsoon in Karnataka, West Bengal and Rajasthan and currently North Karanataka specially Belgaum are bearing the brunt of heavy rainfall and release of water from dams.
Though on paper the total area under cereals has been higher than last year, which heavy rains in parts of Maharahstra, Karnataka and Gujarat which are cereals growing areas as well, it is unlikely that the farmers will be in a position to sow again. As the flood waters recede they take with it the top soil which contains the organic matter. Reports appearing in a section of press indicate Area under cotton, coarse cereals (with exception of maize), sugarcane and jute has increased as compared to the same period in previous year.
The prices of maize are stable as most of the end users have covered themselves in advance. But with the demand rising the spot prices area also higher. Report suggest spot prices are up to Rs.5616 ($129) at Davangere, while in Nizamabad the spot prices have broken the Rs.6000 ($138) per ton barrier are up to Rs.6096 ($140) per MT. These prices are at market yards and additional costs of handling and transport will need to be added, which will further add to the cost.
The future price for Aug is also up to Rs.6030 ($138.6) per MT, while for sept the prices are ruling a little lower at Rs.5890 ($135) per MT.
While it is still too early to access the damage caused by rains in Western Maharashtra, Gujarat and North Karnataka in the cereal belts, the prices are showing an upward trend. Also with delayed rains in Rajasthan, parts of Madhya Pradesh and Bihar it is unlikely that cereal crop will be sown in those areas as well, which will make meeting the requirements very difficult.
The worst effected areas in North Karnataka include Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Raichur, Gulbarga and Bagalkot districts. Jamkhandi is amonst the worst effected areas. All the above areas are major suppliers of maize to Karnataka from where it moves to Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and other parts of the country.
The high temperature and low moisture in US is likely to take its toll and effect the grain production. Reports suggest the production of corn down to 9.99 Billion bushels (253 MMT) down from record production of 299 MMT in 2004. The average productivity is also expected to be down to 135.7 bushels/acre (3.44 tons/acre) down from over 4 tons/acre in 2004.
The corn prices in US are stable. CBOT closed on Friday at $2.205 per bushel ($86.80 per MT) for Sept delivery, down from July 29 close of $93.10 per ton. The FOB value would be close to $102 per ton.
The detailed USGC market report can be found at
http://www.grains.org/buying/market_perspectives/mp_08-05-05.pdf
Biotech Research roundup (from seed quest)
Chinese scientists have been successful in breeding genetically modified rice to grow well in soil that has low levels of the mineral phosphate. The new rice will reduce the reliance of Phospate fertilizers, thus reducing some cost.
The gene called “osptf1” became active when rice was grown in low levels of phosphate. The gene is copied and inserted it into a different variety of rice to create genetically-modified (GM) plants that could tolerate low phosphate levels.
When grown in such conditions, the GM rice plants produced longer roots and took up 30 per cent more phosphate than non-GM rice plants in the same environment.
As one of the researchers, Guo Longbiao of the China National Rice Research Institute, put it, “osptf1 was derived from rice rather than a different plant species, new rice varieties containing the gene could be developed by combining traditional breeding with molecular techniques.”
Although this method would take several years longer than using genetic modification on its own, said Guo, it could be used in areas where the sale of GM rice has not been authorised.
Guo added that new rice varieties with the osptf1 gene would be important in many developing countries. When phosphate fertilisers are used in such countries, yields increase but at a high cost to farmers and to the environment, he said.
Phosphate fertilisers, which often contain the toxins fluoride and arsenic, are among the most environmentally damaging of all fertilisers. Their manufacture can cause atmospheric pollution, and the fertilisers themselves can pollute soil and rivers. (Reference: Plant Physiology doi:10.1104/pp.105.063115)
In India, rice research (to produce GM rice) is being carried out at various location including New Delhi, Calcutta, Madurai, Coimbatore, Hyderabadm Baroda and Bangalore. In most cases the research involves inserting a Bt gene or producing a plant which is resistant to viruses, or to produce rice with high Vitamin A content.
In India at present research is being done in over 33 crops, which includes fruits, vegetables, cereals, tubers etc and these are at difference stages.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
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