Saturday, November 26, 2005

High maize prices in India will affect competitiveness; Biotech becoming popular in developing countries

High maize prices in India will affect competitiveness

While most of the corn grain has been harvested, the prices still remain higher, indicating a lower corn crop than anticipated. The southern belt has been receiving excessive rains for the last few days, which might affect Rabi sowing, specially in Tamil Nadu.

With some hurried calculations done, Tamil Nadu’s poultry industry requires over 1.2 MMT of corn, while the production this year is expected to be 0.6 MMT of which 0.48 MMT will be in Rabi, the pressure will be on Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh to fulfil the requirements of maize in Tamil Nadu for its growing broiler and layer sector. With Gujarat, West Bengal also putting pressure on Andhra and Karnataka, prices are bound to go up in the near future.

The indicative prices at some of the varieties were as under:

Deshi Red, Rs.6200 ($139) per MT; Hybrid, Rs.6100 ($137) per MT; Local, Rs.5750 ($129) per MT; Kesari, Rs.5800 ($130) per MT; Yellow Rs.5575 ($125) per MT. In Cuddapah (AP), the prices of Deshi Red variety sold for an average price of Rs.6500 ($146) per MT, despite arrivals of over 1300 tons of material on Friday. In Maharahstra the average price at the markets was Rs.5640 ($126) per MT, while in Tamil Nadu the average price was Rs.5720 ($129) per MT. In Udamulpet, the hub of integration, the corn price at the market was Rs.6100 ($137) per MT.

In 2004 (Nov 26), the indicative prices in Andhra Pradesh was Rs.4990 ($112) per MT. This year the price increase is almost Rs.300 per ton, almost 6%. In Tamil Nadu the price was Rs.4810 ($108) per MT and the increase this year has been Rs.910 per MT, almost 19%.

It is unlikely that the prices are going to come down in near future, and increased demand and low supplies will give rise to speculation and certainly some sort of hoarding which will further increase the price of the commodity. With demand increasing and supplies low, the end users in the poultry, starch sector are in for tough times as their businesses cannot be run without corn.

For poultry it is one of the most vital ingredient and its low supplies, high prices will certainly affect the profitability of small farmers, feed millers and integrators in the long run. The starch sector too is increasing its capacities as the starch and other value added products are much in demand. A price beyond Rs.6000 ($135) per MT, delivered to the starch mill would reduce the profitability and affect the competitiveness of the products in the world market.

There has been much hype about making India a hub for processed food, but it must be seen that if Indian businesses have to scale such heights, the raw materials must be made available at reasonable prices without any restrictions.

In the US the CBOT closed at $1.896 per bushel ($74.62 per MT) for December delivery, almost $0.73 per MT lower than Nov 18, 2005 closing. March delivery closed at $ 2.026 per bushel ($79.74 per MT).

Biotech becoming popular in developing countries

As the population increases the Asia, specially India and China, the countries are bound to adapt biotechnology to feed its growing populations and the opposition is to biotech food crops like rice is likely to dissipate. As per Dr.Gurdev Singh Kush, a consultant to International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) and a World Food Prize recipient in an interview stated that some day GM rice will be approved in Asia. As per reports available, the number of rice consumers is likely to increase to 4 billion by 2030 and almost 70% of the rice consumers live in Asia.

China, India and the Philippines are pushing research on a few varieties of biotech rice containing the BT gene, which is resistant to the corn borer pest, the leading destroyer of corn crops in Asia.

Other biotech rice, containing the Xa21 gene which is resistant to the bacterial blight pest and golden rice rich in Vitamin A, are also being studied and may be released in comming years.

Iran on the other hand has claimed to be the first country to commercialize GM rice in 2004 after nearly 10 years of risk assessment, including field trials.

As Mr.Clive James, Chairman and founder of International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA), puts it, 'While the West argues, the developing world is planting biotech crops'

GM crops are being embraced in developing countries much faster and there is a greater interest in high-yielding, pest-resistant crops that can increase productivity and profits to the farmers.

In 2003 the number of developing countries growing biotech crops was 6, while in 2004, it increased to 11, almost double. As per ISAAA, More than 34 per cent of the global biotech crop area of 81 million hectares last year was grown in developing countries.

The benefits accrued to producers from biotech crops in 2003 in US were $1.9 billion, while in Argentina in 2001-02, the gains were to the tune of $1.7 billion. In 2010, China expects the gains to be $1billion from Bt Cotton and $4 billion from GM rice.

In India, it has been fours years since biotech cotton was introduced and the sales of transgenic seeds has jumped by over 30 times since than, if reports are to be believed. After the initial success, Monsanto plans to introduce Bt Cotton with 2 genes, which it claims will be 10 times more effective. Bollgard II, as it has been named is in its final year of field trials and will be released in the next season.

With GM Cotton and GM Rice is the forefront of the adoption in India and China, it is likely that the gains from the technology will be huge and benefit the small farmers in developing countries immensely and will also make them competitive in the world market. A study by Australian economists, predicts that the grains by biotech grains, oil seeds and fruit and vegetables would amount to $210 billion by 2015. This projection has been based on a full adoption with 10 per cent productivity gains in high and middle-income countries, and 20 per cent in low-income countries.

Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com

November 26, 2005

Saturday, November 19, 2005

Maize prices in India on the rise and US production surges; Vertical integration is the best bet against bird flu threat

Maize prices in India on the rise and US production surges

It seems there is no respite from increasing commodity prices in India, especially corn, which is the third most important coarse cereal in India, and is used by poultry, starch and the livestock sector. As its demand has gone up, the production has not been able to keep pace, due to several factors which include adoption of hybrid seeds, inputs costs and prices of competitive crops which can be grown in the same area among the few.

Current prices in India for some specific varieties are much higher than the Minimum Support Price (MSP) declared by Government of India. Some indicative prices are as under:

Deshi Red, Rs.6400 ($144) per MT; Hybrid Yellow, Rs.6125 ($138) per MT; Kesari, Rs.5900 ($133) per MT; Medium, Rs.5500 ($124) per MT. The prices of the same varieties in Oct 2005 was lower by an average of Rs.534 ($12) per MT at the market level, thus making the commodities more expensive at the fag end of the harvest.

In US, corn closed lower on CBOT on Nov 18 at $1.91 ($75.35) for Dec corn, lower by almost $2.27 from Nov 11, 2005 for Dec corn. FOB value for December delivery was indicated at $98 per MT, while for January 2005 the FOB value (US Gulf) was indicated at $99.50 per MT.

The freight has also shown a decline is the last 2 weeks. Even the values for domestic freght in US have declined.

Detailed market report from US Grains Council can be found at:

http://www.grains.org/buying/market_perspectives/mp_11-18-05.pdf

The WASDE report, out on Nov 10, 2005 predicted a higher corn production in the US. The production is now estimated at 11.03 billion bushels (280.2 MMT), up from 10.857 billion bushels (275.8 MMT) estimated in Oct 2005. The usage in food feed and industrial sector has also been increased to 75.2 MMT of which 40 MMT is estimated to be used for ethanol production. Report also predicts the average farm price to be in the range of $1.60 – 2.00 per bushel ($62.97 – 78.72) per MT. (The above price is the weighted average price received by the US corn farmer).

Vertical integration is the best bet against bird flu threat

Poultry specialists at the Purdue University, have stated that the business model of poultry industry is the key component in preventing the outbreak. All commercial poultry in US is company managed – under vertical integration and the processes are safer and more efficient. And having full control over the entire production process is probably a good thing.

Poultry production is big business in the United States. In 2004 the combined production value of broilers, eggs, turkeys and sales from chickens was $28.9 billion, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Of that total value, 71 percent came from broilers, 18 percent from eggs and 11 percent from turkeys.

Under a vertically integrated system, a company owns parent stock - the males and females - that lay the hatchable eggs, which are transferred to a company-owned hatchery. It is possible that the parent stock could be on a contract farm and the company would likely own the birds on that farm, provide them feed and supply technical expertise to help that producer rear those birds.

Once a bird is hatched from the company-owned hatchery, it is usually transported to another contracted producer. At the end of the production period, the company comes and collects the birds from that farm and takes them to a processing facility that they own themselves or to the market.

Bio-security measures are tight throughout the production process, especially on the parent farms and hatcheries. Typical levels of bio-security include limiting visitors onto the farm and limiting the transfer of equipment from one farm to another.

By limiting visitors and equipment transfer, it is possible to limit possible routes of infection. Most producers go to great lengths to limit other sources of vectors that may transmit diseases, including rodents, flies and wild birds.

In India too, poultry is big business, valued at $6.5 billion, providing employment opportunities to almost 3 million people, directly or indirectly. Almost 80 percent of poultry production business in integrated in Southern India, while in West India, integration is limited to 40 percent. In east India almost 20 percent of the poultry production business in integrated, while in North India only 10 percent in under integration.

Many companies do see bird flu as a business risk, specially in South East Asia. Businesses in SEA have issued warnings to investors that earnings could get affected. But that is all part of the game.

More than 60 human deaths have been attributed to avian influenza, and four outbreaks have been reported in the past two weeks in China, where authorities have reportedly destroyed 2.5 million birds to contain the virus.

In order to keep the consumers informed about the disease, National Chicken Council, National Turkey Federation and Egg Safety Centre have come together to launch a website www.avianinfluenzainfo.com. The key message is "Avian influenza: It's not in your food" The avian influenza virus is not food borne and cannot survive heat.

Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com

November 19, 2005

Monday, November 14, 2005

Maize prices ruling high in India; Socks made out of Corn; Indian broiler sector has the potential, but for raw material availability

Maize prices ruling high in India

Even though the harvest of Khariff crop is almost over and farmers are getting ready for Rabi sowing in most parts of the country, the maize prices are much higher than last year. Market reports reveal feed millers and starch manufacturers are procuring maize delivered at their site at Rs.7000 ($157) per ton. There are reports that the prices in states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat are very high and most of North India procures maize from these states. It is believed that the maize crop in Uttar Pradesh was affected due to drought at the start and later due to untimely rains.

Reports from some parts of Andhra Pradesh indicate that almost 30% of the crop has been damaged due to un-timely rains and government of India has also relaxed the rules of Fair Average Quality (FAQ), the basis on which it procures grain from the market. It would mean that lower quality grains would also be picked by the agencies at the same price at good quality.

Production estimates have been worked out by various agencies and trading companies. Based on market information, it is estimated that the production of Maize in Khariff is about 9.4 – 9.6 MMT and during Rabi it is expected to be 2.5 – 2.6 MMT due to high soil moisture and good irrigation that would be available during the season. With a demand of over 13.8 MMT and production at 12.1 – 12.2 MMT, the prices are bound to remain higher.

Some current price indications are Red – Rs.6000 ($ 134.8), Gajjar Rs.5700 ($128), Hyb/Local Rs.5975 ($134.3), Yellow 5250 ($118) per MT. The prices are at market yards and costs like commission, packing, loading and transport, will need be added.

In parts of Andhra Pradesh where though crop is higher than last year, rain damage has affected the quality. The damaged grain is of no use for the poultry industry, but can be used by the starch sector, under special circumstances.

In parts of Karnataka too, the same story is unfolding. Maize with high moisture content was being brought in the markets.

Due to the increased price of maize , the feed pries are likely to increase in near future which will affect the profitability not only of the small farmers but large integrators as well. Though India is the second lowest cost producer of broiler in the world, it may lose out if the commodity prices remain high.

In US the prices remained firm and there was no change in prices as on last week. Dec corn closed at $77.62 per MT, while March corn closed at $82.65. The US rail and barge rates declined and this has also helped in firming the prices in domestic markets. The FOB rates Dec corn is $97.5 per MT while Jan corn was $99 per MT.

Detailed market report from US Grains Council can be found at:

http://www.grains.org/buying/market_perspectives/mp_11-11-05.pdf

Socks made out of Corn

The environmental benefits of biodegradable fibers are one of the selling points for a new line of socks introduced this week in Japan. The socks promoted by North Carolina's Harriss & Covington Hosiery Mills, is made out of Ingeo fiber, a corn-based bioplastic from NatureWorks, in place of petroleum-based fibers. Ingeo fibre, is the 'world's first man-made fibre' produced from corn extrusion. The bioplastic fibers offer excellent wicking, moisture management and comfort properties, in addition to being biodegradable under appropriate conditions. The hosiery line, which includes running, walking, climbing, cycling, golf and specialty children’s socks, will be available in 2006. If the new line of socks is successful in Japan, the manufactures may market them in Europe and the United States. (photo courtesy: www.yahoo.com)

Indian broiler sector has the potential, but for raw material availability

The Indian broiler industry which has been growing at about 10% per annum, can grow much faster, provided the inputs are available at reasonable prices.

It will be possible to provide safe, high quality chicken to the consumers at affordable prices. The new food law and the amendment to the Meat Food Products Order of 1973 will make it possible for the companies to promote processed poultry to the consumers and increase its demand.

But if the prices of raw material, especially maize fluctuates, it will difficult for the poultry farmers to keep the cost of production down. With the current feed price of Rs.11 per kg ($0.24) in South India the cost of production of a kg of live chicken is Rs.27.67 ($0.62) (at farm gate). An increase of Rs.1 in feed price is likely to increase the cost of production to Rs.29.47 ($66) per kg. i.e., a Rs.1 increase in feed causes the cost of production to increase by Rs.1.8 for 1 kg of live chicken, thus reducing the profit margin of the farms by the same amount on a kg of chicken.

If feed millers are buying maize at over Rs.6500 ($146) per ton during the harvest, the traders predict the prices to hit Rs.7500 ($166) per MT in summer time, which is likely to affect the profitability still further. There have been instances in the past when increased prices of raw materials and low profitability have forced many farmers to close farms and look for alternate jobs. It is high time that Government of India considers a policy to make available maize at a reasonable price by way of own production or by way of imports. It is a way to bridge the gap between supply and demand. The supply in 2005-06 is expected to be 12.2 MMT and the demand likely to touch 13.73 MMT and could be more of poultry exports start in a big way to Japan.

Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com

November 12, 2005

Monday, November 07, 2005

Commodity prices in India and US; Biotech – spreading its wings; It’s final – Frozen Chicken in MFPO net

Commodity prices in India and US

The last week in India was the festival week. The week started with Deepawali, the festival of lights on Tuesday and ended with EID on Friday. Most markets were subdued and arrivals very slow.

Yellow corn averaged at Rs.5500 ($124) per MT while the local corn average at Rs.5600 ($126) per MT. The spot price at Davangere (Karnataka) was reported at Rs.5322 ($120) per MT while in Nizamabad (Andhra Pradesh) the price was Rs.5348 ($121) per MT.

The prices during the same period last year (first week of November 2004) were much lower. Prices in Andhra Pradesh last year were $90 – 100 per MT while in Bangalore were $115 per MT.

The harvest in US is almost complete and 80% of the crop has been harvested. The prices have also come down as per last week and Dec corn closed at $1.955 per bushel ($77.62 per MT), The corresponding FOB value is $98.5 per MT. March corn closed at $2.0975 per bushel ($ 82.65 per MT). In India the future prices for February are Rs.5640 ($127) per MT. That will be the time when the Rabi crop will be harvested in some parts of the country, specially in Bihar and parts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.

Detailed market report from US Grains Council can be found at:

http://www.grains.org/buying/market_perspectives/mp_11-04-05.pdf

Biotech – spreading its wings

A report in farmers weekly says that the farmers in UK are losing out on agriculture as they are not allowed to plant any biotech crops. Farmers from UK visited Spain to study the system and found nothing wrong with the system. Spain, as per the reports, plants 11% of its area under biotech maize. The technology behind biotech maize prevents corn borer damage and saves at least two insecticide treatments, bringing down the cost of production.

As per the farmers from UK, a herbicide resistant biotech sugar beet could significantly reduce production costs to offset some of the severe price cuts in the proposed reforms.

While the farmers in UK are frustrated on not being allowed to use the technology to compete in the world, farmers in Czech Republic will be growing biotech corn this year, which will be hitting the market by 2006. The corn, which is more resistant to disease-bearing pests, is expected to be used in the country's animal feed industry.

Reports available suggest France and Portugal in Europe have also begun commercial growing of biotech maize this year. Spain and Germany are already growing biotech maize. The European Union has long imported biotech products from United States, but only this year the laws have been amended on the Continent's agriculture industry to enable countries to decide whether to allow the growing of biotech crops.

The EU currently allows only biotech maize to be grown, but it could also give a green light to modified potatoes and rapeseed down the line. Observers say farmers are turning to the crop to save money: Better harvests would cut production losses caused by disease and lower the costs of chemically protecting crops.

In lighter vain, some observers point out all those who oppose biotech crops travel on business or as tourists in areas of the world where they eat these products and do not raise any questions. In addition they bring packed food from those areas which, is not labelled and that this is the best clinical trial and opinion trial that one can have.

It’s final – Frozen Chicken in MFPO net

The final notification made on Oct 27, 2005 by Ministry of Food Processing Industries, Government of India is an amendment to the Meat Food Products Order of 1973. With this amendment frozen chicken and fish are included in the products that would need a licence to be sold in India. Plants processing chicken and selling frozen chicken would need to register themselves with Ministry of Food Processing Industries (MoFPI) and obtain a licence. The licence number would need to appear on the package of frozen chicken as it now appears on the packs of value added products. In the new amendment, the chilled chicken registration has been kept on a voluntary basis as this is the start will be made compulsory at a leter date.

Until recently chicken (frozen or chilled) was not included in the list of MFPO products. The notification is a step in a right direction and will help in creating confidence among the consumers and increase acceptance of dressed/packed chicken.

U S Grains Council has been involved with the poultry processing sector in India for last 3 years and has recently completed the training of Ministry of Food Processing Industry inspectors and production managers of major processing plants in India. The training will help the production managers produce a better product and will also help the inspectors implement the notification.

Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com

November 05, 2005