May the setting sun of 2006 take along with it all sorrows and displeasures and may the bright New Year dawn bring into your life endless happiness and prosperity.
Have a great year ahead!!
What a year 2006 was and expectations from 2007 ?
As the maize users usher in a new year, there are many who would keep their fingers crossed and hope that the year 2006 does not repeat itself in any manner. Poultry sector would like to forget the year 2006, specially after what happened in Feb 2006 (Avian Influenza), direct losses and indirect losses amounted to over 10,000 crores ($2.2 billion). It was a major setback for the poultry sector. As the sector started on the comeback trail, demand of chicken and eggs was normal, chicken placements were back to normal, high maize prices affected the profitability of the farmers yet again. Though the price of end products (chicken and eggs) was up, but so was the cost of production.
In the year 2007, at least in the first 10 months, it is likely that the maize availability would be poor, prices high, until the new crop arrives in October 2007. A higher production may not grant solace as 2007 would be the year of Al Nino, which would also mean a lower monsoon.
In addition, the demand from the starch sector will increase due to the boom in retail sector. It would be the food sector, which many believe will give a boost to the starch sector and the PULL EFFECT from the retail sector for packaged, processed foods.
The PULL EFFECT from the retail sector will also help the poultry sector and processed poultry will gain much wider acceptance and audience. The recoveries to the integrators would be higher and in all likelihood India would see major investments to set up processing plans and supply chain systems.
Maize prices move up
Maize prices are slightly up from last week by Rs.100 per MT, averaging Rs.6800 – 6900 per MT at the market yard. The prices are higher over last year by almost 14%. Reports from the market also indicate that the prices are likely to remain higher in the coming months, until the new rabi crop arrives in the market in Feb/March 2007 in some markets (Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Maharsahtra). The prices are likely to soften, but for a short period only. Rabi crop provides about 15-17% of the total maize production of India and even a small increase in land coverage will not be able to fulfil the deficit already in the market.
Pearl Millet prices are up over last week by Rs.100 per MT, reaching a level of Rs.7400 – 7500 per MT. As against maize, the prices are higher by about 9%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices remained stable at Rs.7600 per MT at the market yard, but are higher than the maize prices by almost 12%.
Barley prices moved up by almost Rs.700 per MT at the market yard, to reach Rs.7700 per MT (average), an increase of almost 9% over last week. The prices of barley are also lower than last year by 11.2%.
In the world market maize prices are likely to remain high, especially due to the ethanol boom in US. There are about 111 ethanol plants in the US producing almost 19.5 billion litres ethanol in 2006. There are another 70 plants that will be online in 2007. Currently 20% of the maize crop is converted to ethanol, which is likely to rise to 25% in 2007. The ending stocks of maize in the US in 2006 were 25 MMT, and are likely to be 20.3 MMT in 2007, which will further fuel the prices. This is despite a higher production of 306 MMT estimated by many analysts. The average maize price at the farm in 2006 was $120 per MT as against $78.72 in 2005. The average farm gate maize price in 2007 is expected to be $128 per MT.
Prices at CBOT moved a bit higher and March 2007 delivery closed at $153.6 per MT, May 2007 delivery $156.81 per MT.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Dec 30, 2006
Saturday, December 30, 2006
Saturday, December 23, 2006
Average maize prices remain stable; Pressure on GOI to allow duty free imports
We wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy, Healthy and Fun 2007!
May the Year 2007 be synonymous of Joy, Happiness, Good Health and Prosperity for you and your family.
Average maize prices remain stable
Average maize prices at the market yard have remained stable at Rs.6700 – 6800 per MT range. The prices though are higher than last year by almost 13%. As one goes by the varieties, the price of yellow maize, which is more in demand by the poultry and the starch sector has gone up drastically to Rs.7300 per MT at the market yard. Prices of local and the red varieties has though come down. Within the states, the highest prices of maize are recorded in Rajasthan at Rs.8000 per MT, followed by Gujarat, Rs.7600 per MT; Uttar Pradesh, Rs.7300 per MT & Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra at Rs.7000 per MT.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have moved up by 2.5% over last week, reaching Rs.7300 – 7400 per MT range. The prices are the highest in Gujarat at Rs.8200 per MT. The average prices are still higher than maize by 9%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices have also shown a rising trend this week and are up by 3% over last week, reaching Rs.7700 – 7800 per MT at the market yard. The prices in Gujarat were the highest at Rs.10000 per MT, while in Rajasthan the were at Rs.7400 per MT at the market yard. The average prices are still higher than maize by 13.5%.
Barley prices have shown a decline of over 13% over last week, reaching levels of Rs.7000 – 7200 per MT at the market yard. Prices in Gujarat though have gine up to Rs.8500 per MT levels, while in UP the prices have declined to Rs.6900 per MT level at the market yard.
The prices of all the commodities are the highest in Gujarat and have gone up over the last week.
The price of corn on CBOT was higher than last week, up by almost $6 per MT. CBOT closed at $151.14 per MT. The prices were higher on the premise that China may not be able to supply the world with the promised corn as it is expected to consume 143 MMT of corn, up by 1 MMT over the last report.
Pressure on GOI to allow duty free imports
At the recent press conference on Dec 20, 2006, Shri.Sharad Pawar, Minister for Agriculture made a mention regarding allowing maize imports at Zero Duty for the benefit of the poultry sector. He said that the Government is strongly considering the case as requested by the poultry sector.
The prices of maize have risen sharply over the last few months. Looking at the year gone by, the monthly average price of maize at the market yard in Dec 04 was Rs.5240 per MT, which in Dec 05 rose to Rs.5817 an increase on 11%. In Jan 06 too, the prices were higher than Jan 05 by 11% and in the period April – July 2006 were at levels similar to April – July 2006. In August 2006 the prices started to rise once again and were higher by 9% over Aug 2005. In Oct 2006 the prices were higher over Oct 2005 by 5.36%, this was at a time when the new crop came into the market.
In Nov 2006 the prices were higher than Nov 2005 levels by 12.17% and till date (3 weeks of Dec 2006), the prices are higher by 16.47% from Dec 2005 level. From Oct 2006 to Dec 2006 the prices have risen from a level of Rs.6000 per Mt to Rs.6800 per MT.
In the last quarter of 2005 (Oct 2005 – Dec 2005) the price of maize rose from Rs.5700 to Rs.5817, a mere 2% increase. In the last quarter of 2006 (Oct 2006 – Dec 2006), the prices rose from Rs.6000 – Rs.6775 per MT at the market yard, a 12.9% increase.
Government of India has also allowed import of wheat on duty free terms until Feb 2007. Import of pulses has also been allowed at duty free until July 31, 2007. This is to keep the prices of essential commodities down.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Dec 23, 2006
May the Year 2007 be synonymous of Joy, Happiness, Good Health and Prosperity for you and your family.
Average maize prices remain stable
Average maize prices at the market yard have remained stable at Rs.6700 – 6800 per MT range. The prices though are higher than last year by almost 13%. As one goes by the varieties, the price of yellow maize, which is more in demand by the poultry and the starch sector has gone up drastically to Rs.7300 per MT at the market yard. Prices of local and the red varieties has though come down. Within the states, the highest prices of maize are recorded in Rajasthan at Rs.8000 per MT, followed by Gujarat, Rs.7600 per MT; Uttar Pradesh, Rs.7300 per MT & Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra at Rs.7000 per MT.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have moved up by 2.5% over last week, reaching Rs.7300 – 7400 per MT range. The prices are the highest in Gujarat at Rs.8200 per MT. The average prices are still higher than maize by 9%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices have also shown a rising trend this week and are up by 3% over last week, reaching Rs.7700 – 7800 per MT at the market yard. The prices in Gujarat were the highest at Rs.10000 per MT, while in Rajasthan the were at Rs.7400 per MT at the market yard. The average prices are still higher than maize by 13.5%.
Barley prices have shown a decline of over 13% over last week, reaching levels of Rs.7000 – 7200 per MT at the market yard. Prices in Gujarat though have gine up to Rs.8500 per MT levels, while in UP the prices have declined to Rs.6900 per MT level at the market yard.
The prices of all the commodities are the highest in Gujarat and have gone up over the last week.
The price of corn on CBOT was higher than last week, up by almost $6 per MT. CBOT closed at $151.14 per MT. The prices were higher on the premise that China may not be able to supply the world with the promised corn as it is expected to consume 143 MMT of corn, up by 1 MMT over the last report.
Pressure on GOI to allow duty free imports
At the recent press conference on Dec 20, 2006, Shri.Sharad Pawar, Minister for Agriculture made a mention regarding allowing maize imports at Zero Duty for the benefit of the poultry sector. He said that the Government is strongly considering the case as requested by the poultry sector.
The prices of maize have risen sharply over the last few months. Looking at the year gone by, the monthly average price of maize at the market yard in Dec 04 was Rs.5240 per MT, which in Dec 05 rose to Rs.5817 an increase on 11%. In Jan 06 too, the prices were higher than Jan 05 by 11% and in the period April – July 2006 were at levels similar to April – July 2006. In August 2006 the prices started to rise once again and were higher by 9% over Aug 2005. In Oct 2006 the prices were higher over Oct 2005 by 5.36%, this was at a time when the new crop came into the market.
In Nov 2006 the prices were higher than Nov 2005 levels by 12.17% and till date (3 weeks of Dec 2006), the prices are higher by 16.47% from Dec 2005 level. From Oct 2006 to Dec 2006 the prices have risen from a level of Rs.6000 per Mt to Rs.6800 per MT.
In the last quarter of 2005 (Oct 2005 – Dec 2005) the price of maize rose from Rs.5700 to Rs.5817, a mere 2% increase. In the last quarter of 2006 (Oct 2006 – Dec 2006), the prices rose from Rs.6000 – Rs.6775 per MT at the market yard, a 12.9% increase.
Government of India has also allowed import of wheat on duty free terms until Feb 2007. Import of pulses has also been allowed at duty free until July 31, 2007. This is to keep the prices of essential commodities down.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Dec 23, 2006
Saturday, December 16, 2006
Maize Prices are stable, but availability an issue; Animal feeding takes a hit with high grain prices
Maize Prices are stable, but availability an issue
Maize prices at the Market yard are slightly down over last week, at Rs.6700 per MT, a mere 2.7% drop over last week market yard prices. The average delivery prices remain in the range of Rs.8200 – 8300 per MT. The price drop is mostly in North India due to winter and drop in placement of chicks in the area. Maize prices at this time of the year are running at 22% higher that last year. At this time last year, the average delivered prices were Rs.6750 per MT.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices also cam down by about 6% this week, reaching a leven of Rs.7150 per MT, which are still higher than maize prices by 6.5%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices also crashed at the market yard by 11% over last week, reaching a level of Rs.7400 per MT at the market yard, which is still higher than the maize price by 10%.
Barley prices remained stable at the Rs.8100 per MT at the market yard, which is similar to last year prices. The demand of barley as raw material for malt is going up. Malt is used to manufacture beverages and also beer. The two products are extreme in the middle income group, with malt beverages aimed at children for health and wellness, while beer is aimed at the younger generation as a fun drink.
The drop in prices is merely a correction and the prices are likely to go up again as the demand of maize in west, south and east increases, In addition the demand will pickup in January in North India as the placements of chicks for Holi (festival of colors) are likely to increase.
On the international front, China may not be able to fulfil its export obligations on maize. Reports indicate that the exporters had permits/contracts for 4.18 MMT, which was supposed to be completed by end of the year or early 2007. The total exports from China are 2.37 MMT and the domestic prices have steadily risen, due to increase in demand. China has also imported 60,000 tons on maize this year and has a quota of 7.2 MMT tons as per WTO rules.
The prices in US are up this week again. At CBOT corn for March 07 delivery was 145.2 per MT.
Animal feeding takes a hit with high grain prices
High grain prices -- particularly for wheat and corn – due to poor crop production in major production areas are likely to have an impact on the animal feeding in some parts of the world. The latest report from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), indicates that as the use of grain take precedence for biofuels against food or animal feeding, countries may witness higher consumer prices of red meat and poultry and possible meat shortages.
Higher grain prices will also affect the overall economy of some of the developing countries, translate into lower purchases of meats in certain countries, not necessarily due to improved domestic supply, but due to higher international prices. FAO report estimates that the import costs for developing countries might rise almost five percent from 2005, mainly as a result of price increases rather than an increase in the actual volume of food imports. In 2006 the global expenditures on imported food in 2006 could reach a historic high of US$374 billion – two percent more than the previous year’s level as per FAO report.
World production of coarse grains in 2006 stands at 981 million metric tons, down by 2.1 percent from 2005 but above the average of the past five years. There is also belief that the current higher prices are likely to encourage higher plantings and larger production in 2007, but if industrial use, mainly for ethanol, continues to grow at the current pace, it may take more than one good crop season for prices to retreat significantly from their current highs.
It is a catch 22 situation, as there was expectation of a rebound in the meat consumption due to renewed consumer confidence as a result of reduced animal disease outbreaks, the high feed costs may postpone the recovery in the livestock market.
While corn and soybean availability in the global market place is low and prices high, in Brazil the supplies are good and prices low, which is helping companies and farmers to expand feeding operations to feed the growing meat demand. The feedlot capacities have grown by over 20% within one year. The lower prices of grains will also help in feeding the rapidly expanding poultry sector in Brazil, which is more oriented towards exports.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Dec 16, 2006
Maize prices at the Market yard are slightly down over last week, at Rs.6700 per MT, a mere 2.7% drop over last week market yard prices. The average delivery prices remain in the range of Rs.8200 – 8300 per MT. The price drop is mostly in North India due to winter and drop in placement of chicks in the area. Maize prices at this time of the year are running at 22% higher that last year. At this time last year, the average delivered prices were Rs.6750 per MT.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices also cam down by about 6% this week, reaching a leven of Rs.7150 per MT, which are still higher than maize prices by 6.5%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices also crashed at the market yard by 11% over last week, reaching a level of Rs.7400 per MT at the market yard, which is still higher than the maize price by 10%.
Barley prices remained stable at the Rs.8100 per MT at the market yard, which is similar to last year prices. The demand of barley as raw material for malt is going up. Malt is used to manufacture beverages and also beer. The two products are extreme in the middle income group, with malt beverages aimed at children for health and wellness, while beer is aimed at the younger generation as a fun drink.
The drop in prices is merely a correction and the prices are likely to go up again as the demand of maize in west, south and east increases, In addition the demand will pickup in January in North India as the placements of chicks for Holi (festival of colors) are likely to increase.
On the international front, China may not be able to fulfil its export obligations on maize. Reports indicate that the exporters had permits/contracts for 4.18 MMT, which was supposed to be completed by end of the year or early 2007. The total exports from China are 2.37 MMT and the domestic prices have steadily risen, due to increase in demand. China has also imported 60,000 tons on maize this year and has a quota of 7.2 MMT tons as per WTO rules.
The prices in US are up this week again. At CBOT corn for March 07 delivery was 145.2 per MT.
Animal feeding takes a hit with high grain prices
High grain prices -- particularly for wheat and corn – due to poor crop production in major production areas are likely to have an impact on the animal feeding in some parts of the world. The latest report from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), indicates that as the use of grain take precedence for biofuels against food or animal feeding, countries may witness higher consumer prices of red meat and poultry and possible meat shortages.
Higher grain prices will also affect the overall economy of some of the developing countries, translate into lower purchases of meats in certain countries, not necessarily due to improved domestic supply, but due to higher international prices. FAO report estimates that the import costs for developing countries might rise almost five percent from 2005, mainly as a result of price increases rather than an increase in the actual volume of food imports. In 2006 the global expenditures on imported food in 2006 could reach a historic high of US$374 billion – two percent more than the previous year’s level as per FAO report.
World production of coarse grains in 2006 stands at 981 million metric tons, down by 2.1 percent from 2005 but above the average of the past five years. There is also belief that the current higher prices are likely to encourage higher plantings and larger production in 2007, but if industrial use, mainly for ethanol, continues to grow at the current pace, it may take more than one good crop season for prices to retreat significantly from their current highs.
It is a catch 22 situation, as there was expectation of a rebound in the meat consumption due to renewed consumer confidence as a result of reduced animal disease outbreaks, the high feed costs may postpone the recovery in the livestock market.
While corn and soybean availability in the global market place is low and prices high, in Brazil the supplies are good and prices low, which is helping companies and farmers to expand feeding operations to feed the growing meat demand. The feedlot capacities have grown by over 20% within one year. The lower prices of grains will also help in feeding the rapidly expanding poultry sector in Brazil, which is more oriented towards exports.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Dec 16, 2006
Saturday, December 09, 2006
Maize Prices moving up, no respite in sight; Retail boom in the offing, but are chicken suppliers ready?
Maize Prices moving up, no respite in sight
Price of maize in India moved up yet again this week by another 4% over last week, closing at an average of about Rs.6900 per MT at the market yard. The delivered price on an average would be close to Rs.8300 – 8500 range per MT. Over the last year the prices are higher by 23% at the market yard levels.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices at the market yard have also reached a level of Rs.8300 per MT and up by approximately 11% over last week. Against maize, the prices are higher by approximately 20%.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have also shot up and are at Rs.7600 per MT at the market yard, higher by 2.5% over last week. Against maize the prices are higher by approximately 10%.
Average price of barley was down this week by 11% over last week, levelling at RS.7900 per MT at the market yard. The prices are also lower than last year by 5.6%.
The situation on coarse grains looks very bleak, with demand going up and supplies dwindling fast. Government of India has extended duty free status for pulses import until July 31, 2007, as there is a need for pulses and this has also been done to curb inflation. If GOI does allow imports of maize at NIL duty, it may not be possible to reduce the cost of production of eggs, broilers or starch on a short term basis, but it will certainly enhance the availability of maize and any increase in prices will eventually be reflected in the inflation. At this point, the big question not the price but availability of the commodity to run the plants and feed the broilers and layers and have a sustainable employment generation in these sectors.
The world demand for corn will be rising in near future and in the current scenario Australia will also be in the market to buy corn from US. As Australian authorities complete the pest risk analysis from US, imports to Australia may start as soon as next month.
Prices of corn on CBOT were slightly down over last week. Dec corn closed at $139.33 per MT, down by almost $7.87 per MT over last week’s close.
Retail boom in the offing, but are chicken suppliers ready?
The retail boom in India is about to happen, with Reliance Retail, Bharti-Walmart, Subhiksha etc entering the fray and Metro expanding its wings. In addition to the retail boom, the growth of the fast food chains, KFC, Pizzahut, McDonalds also would happen.
With McDonalds at 100 stores at the moment, KFC with few joints (2 in Delhi and some other locations) and Pizzahut and many more to come, the next question to ask, are our chicken and value added product suppliers ready to serve the outlets, retail or fast food chains with a consistent good quality product?.
As one moves ahead, the processing plants in India are small and regional, may not be able to cover whole of the country. There is a need for operators to expand their operations, and the buyers to work very closely with the processors/suppliers to plan standards for the products and supply chain, which is a vital tool in the present scenario.
If there is no plan, the growth may not be proper and with supply as a bottleneck, the growth of the retail chains as well as the fast food restaurants may be hampered. In this case GOI’s intervention may be required only to form rules and regulations for quality certification (ISO & HACCP), but it would be the responsibility of the trade (Buyers and suppliers) to formulate a strategy which will be mutually beneficial to all, the processors, retailer/users and the consumer.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Dec 9, 2006
Price of maize in India moved up yet again this week by another 4% over last week, closing at an average of about Rs.6900 per MT at the market yard. The delivered price on an average would be close to Rs.8300 – 8500 range per MT. Over the last year the prices are higher by 23% at the market yard levels.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices at the market yard have also reached a level of Rs.8300 per MT and up by approximately 11% over last week. Against maize, the prices are higher by approximately 20%.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have also shot up and are at Rs.7600 per MT at the market yard, higher by 2.5% over last week. Against maize the prices are higher by approximately 10%.
Average price of barley was down this week by 11% over last week, levelling at RS.7900 per MT at the market yard. The prices are also lower than last year by 5.6%.
The situation on coarse grains looks very bleak, with demand going up and supplies dwindling fast. Government of India has extended duty free status for pulses import until July 31, 2007, as there is a need for pulses and this has also been done to curb inflation. If GOI does allow imports of maize at NIL duty, it may not be possible to reduce the cost of production of eggs, broilers or starch on a short term basis, but it will certainly enhance the availability of maize and any increase in prices will eventually be reflected in the inflation. At this point, the big question not the price but availability of the commodity to run the plants and feed the broilers and layers and have a sustainable employment generation in these sectors.
The world demand for corn will be rising in near future and in the current scenario Australia will also be in the market to buy corn from US. As Australian authorities complete the pest risk analysis from US, imports to Australia may start as soon as next month.
Prices of corn on CBOT were slightly down over last week. Dec corn closed at $139.33 per MT, down by almost $7.87 per MT over last week’s close.
Retail boom in the offing, but are chicken suppliers ready?
The retail boom in India is about to happen, with Reliance Retail, Bharti-Walmart, Subhiksha etc entering the fray and Metro expanding its wings. In addition to the retail boom, the growth of the fast food chains, KFC, Pizzahut, McDonalds also would happen.
With McDonalds at 100 stores at the moment, KFC with few joints (2 in Delhi and some other locations) and Pizzahut and many more to come, the next question to ask, are our chicken and value added product suppliers ready to serve the outlets, retail or fast food chains with a consistent good quality product?.
As one moves ahead, the processing plants in India are small and regional, may not be able to cover whole of the country. There is a need for operators to expand their operations, and the buyers to work very closely with the processors/suppliers to plan standards for the products and supply chain, which is a vital tool in the present scenario.
If there is no plan, the growth may not be proper and with supply as a bottleneck, the growth of the retail chains as well as the fast food restaurants may be hampered. In this case GOI’s intervention may be required only to form rules and regulations for quality certification (ISO & HACCP), but it would be the responsibility of the trade (Buyers and suppliers) to formulate a strategy which will be mutually beneficial to all, the processors, retailer/users and the consumer.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Dec 9, 2006
Tuesday, December 05, 2006
Maize Prices move up again, production estimates down; China plans to phase out Live Poultry Markets
Maize Prices move up again, production estimates down
Local maize prices in India moved up in India in the week (Nov 27 – Dec 2) to Rs.6700 – Rs.6900 per MT range at the market yard. The delivered prices were close to Rs.8500 – 8700 per MT range. The prices were higher by about 2% over last week, and about 13.6% higher over last year at market yard values.
The new estimate for maize production put out by Government of India for the year 2006-07 is 12.41 MMT, much lower than last year. The demand of maize for the year 2006-07 is estimated at 14 MMT, thus the deficit will be close to 1.6 MMT. If the exports of 0.7 MMT to Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal are accounted, the deficit will be close to 2.1 MMT. The prices will be much higher than they are now between March – Sept 2007 as during the time, no new corn will be coming in the market and the new crop will only arrive in the market in October 2007.
Pearl Millet (Bajra), prices have reached Rs.7500 – 7700 per MT at market yard, which are about 2.8% lower than last week., but the prices are still higher than maize by 11.5%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices have also reached Rs.7500 per MT levels at market yard and are 1.8% lower over last week. The prices are higher than maize by 12.2%.
Barley prices, whicj were down in the last week, jumped to Rs.8900 per tons level at the market yard, gaining almost 17% over last week. The delivered prices are close to Rs.11000 per MT level. The prices are higher than last year by almost 5%. The demand for Barley has increased considerably and the production is estimated toi be down, which is leading to higher prices.
The prices of corn on CBOT on Dec 1, 2006 was $3.74 per Bushel ($147.20 per MT), and the FOB value (US Gulf) was close to $172 per MT for December delivery. The dry bulk freight prices for corn to china were $46 – 47 per MT. Freight cost from Brazil to China was reported at $50 per MT and there are delays in deliveries through Panama Canal.
China plans to phase out Live Poultry Markets
Reports available indicate that China has started taking steps to phase out live poultry markets. The pashing out of live poultry markets is a part of plan to fight bird flu more effectively.
The document, released by the State Council, the nation's cabinet, has called for a complete ban on any new live poultry markets and urges that the current live markets must be moved out of high density population areas.
In China, as elsewhere throughout Asia, (including India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Bangladesh etc) the live markets are popular as locals prefer to buy the freshest meat, however the live birds are regarded as dangerous incubators of bird flu and the unhygienic conditions in which the birds are slaughters could be responsible on other diseases.
It is important that the poultry markets are regulated and the systems are implemented which will strengthen the market supervision. These can be effective measures in controlling the occurrence and spread of the bird flu.
As per the document, the central government intends to restrict the number of live poultry markets and gradually move them away from urban areas in large and medium-size cities and in a few years completely ban them. The State Council has also urged local governments to regulate wholesale chicken markets and ensure that state-regulated sanitation standards were being implemented. The document also suggests that the live poultry trading areas should be separated from other farming products in the marketplace in both rural and urban areas, and separate exits and entrances should be established to the bird markets.
It is a step forward, and it is necessary that the state governments and the municipalities in India to take a lead and enact laws which will help in regulating live markets and take a step towards a processing industry which will help the industry to grow further.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Dec 5, 2006
Local maize prices in India moved up in India in the week (Nov 27 – Dec 2) to Rs.6700 – Rs.6900 per MT range at the market yard. The delivered prices were close to Rs.8500 – 8700 per MT range. The prices were higher by about 2% over last week, and about 13.6% higher over last year at market yard values.
The new estimate for maize production put out by Government of India for the year 2006-07 is 12.41 MMT, much lower than last year. The demand of maize for the year 2006-07 is estimated at 14 MMT, thus the deficit will be close to 1.6 MMT. If the exports of 0.7 MMT to Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal are accounted, the deficit will be close to 2.1 MMT. The prices will be much higher than they are now between March – Sept 2007 as during the time, no new corn will be coming in the market and the new crop will only arrive in the market in October 2007.
Pearl Millet (Bajra), prices have reached Rs.7500 – 7700 per MT at market yard, which are about 2.8% lower than last week., but the prices are still higher than maize by 11.5%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices have also reached Rs.7500 per MT levels at market yard and are 1.8% lower over last week. The prices are higher than maize by 12.2%.
Barley prices, whicj were down in the last week, jumped to Rs.8900 per tons level at the market yard, gaining almost 17% over last week. The delivered prices are close to Rs.11000 per MT level. The prices are higher than last year by almost 5%. The demand for Barley has increased considerably and the production is estimated toi be down, which is leading to higher prices.
The prices of corn on CBOT on Dec 1, 2006 was $3.74 per Bushel ($147.20 per MT), and the FOB value (US Gulf) was close to $172 per MT for December delivery. The dry bulk freight prices for corn to china were $46 – 47 per MT. Freight cost from Brazil to China was reported at $50 per MT and there are delays in deliveries through Panama Canal.
China plans to phase out Live Poultry Markets
Reports available indicate that China has started taking steps to phase out live poultry markets. The pashing out of live poultry markets is a part of plan to fight bird flu more effectively.
The document, released by the State Council, the nation's cabinet, has called for a complete ban on any new live poultry markets and urges that the current live markets must be moved out of high density population areas.
In China, as elsewhere throughout Asia, (including India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Bangladesh etc) the live markets are popular as locals prefer to buy the freshest meat, however the live birds are regarded as dangerous incubators of bird flu and the unhygienic conditions in which the birds are slaughters could be responsible on other diseases.
It is important that the poultry markets are regulated and the systems are implemented which will strengthen the market supervision. These can be effective measures in controlling the occurrence and spread of the bird flu.
As per the document, the central government intends to restrict the number of live poultry markets and gradually move them away from urban areas in large and medium-size cities and in a few years completely ban them. The State Council has also urged local governments to regulate wholesale chicken markets and ensure that state-regulated sanitation standards were being implemented. The document also suggests that the live poultry trading areas should be separated from other farming products in the marketplace in both rural and urban areas, and separate exits and entrances should be established to the bird markets.
It is a step forward, and it is necessary that the state governments and the municipalities in India to take a lead and enact laws which will help in regulating live markets and take a step towards a processing industry which will help the industry to grow further.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Dec 5, 2006
Saturday, November 25, 2006
Maize Prices are high, but stable in India ; Tighter world grain supplies; Increased cost of production of Broilers and Eggs in India
Maize Prices are high, but stable
Corn prices have remained stable for 2 weeks now, with delivered prices close to Rs.8000 – 8200 per MT range average. In some areas delivered prices are as high as Rs.9000 per MT. The prices are higher than last year by 15% over last year at this time of the year. There has been speculation in the market and reports suggested that GOI will ban exports of maize from India, but this has not happened. The end users are keenly watching the situation and hoping for a relief from the Government by way of ban on exports on a short term.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices from the first week of Nov 2006 have increased from Rs.6600 per MT to Rs.7950 per MT at the market yard, an increase of 20.4%. The prices are also higher than maize (at market yard) by 20%. Under normal circumstances the prices of pearl millet during the harvest would be lower than maize, but not this time. In the last 2 months, it has been only one week (last week of Oct 2006), when the price of Pearl Millet was lower than maize.
Prices of Sorghum on the other size has been showing a downward trend, which average prices currently at Rs.7600 per MT at the Market Yard. The prices are still higher that the maize prices at the market yard by 16%%.
Barley prices have shown the highest increase in these last two weeks and have increased to Rs.8000 per MT from Rs.6900 per MT at the market yard, an increase of 16%. Last week the prices were at a high of Rs.8600 per MT at the market yard. The prices during the last year were at the range of Rs.8600 per Mt level at the market yard.
Before the Thanksgiving Holiday, the CBOT closed higher at $142.72 [per MT) for Dec delivery. The March 2007 delivery was higher at $148.86 per MT. After the holiday the market closed higher with Dec delivery at $145.32 per MT and March delivery at $152 per MT. This is unprecedented increase.
Tighter grain supplies, high prices forecast for 2006-07
The International Grain Council (IGC), has forecast a wheat production of 587 MMT in 2006-07, lower by almost 31 MMT over 2005-06. The Corn production is forecast at 688 MMT, down by almost 5 MMT over 2005-06. The consumption of corn as per IGC is expected to be 721 MMT, higher than 2005-06 estimates of 700 MMT.
IGC also reports that the corn carry over stocks in US in 2006-07 are expected to be 23.8 MMT, which is less than half from last year’s 50.1 MMT.
This is the second year in the row that the world grain production will be lower, while consumption will be up, signalling tighter supplies and higher prices for 2006-07.
Chinese government has finally confirmed that they have issued export permits for 4 MMT of corn from Nov 2006 to Feb 2007, but there have been reports that the 1 MMT corn export slated for Nov – DEC 2006 is delayed. Speculation on exports from China, have also increased the local prices in China. In Argentina, the permits for new crop export registrations are on hold, as the government audits the registrations and wishes to introduce a higher export tax.
Increased cost of production of eggs and broilers – effects profits of farmers
As the delivered price of maize have increased to levels beyond Rs.9000.00 per MT, the price of feed which constitutes 55 – 60 percent maize, have also gone up, thus signalling the increase in cost of production of eggs and broilers.
When maize was delivered to the feed mills and farms at Rs.6000 per MT, the feed prices were in the range Rs.9000-9500 per MT and the cost of production of live broilers ranged from Rs.25 per kg in South India to Rs.29 per kg in North India.
With the price of maize at Rs.9000 – 9300 per MT at several locations, the feed prices have reached Rs.13000 – 13500 per MT, and the cost of production of live broilers is up to Rs.33 per kg in South and Rs.38 in North India. The market prices though have not gone up so much, thus effecting the profit margins of the farmers.
The cost of production of eggs which used to be average at Rs.1.11 each at times when price of maize was Rs.6000 per MT, has now gone up to Rs.1.41 each at these times.
While some state governments like Maharashtra have increased the sale price of milk by Rs.1.00 per kg (to the consumer) due to increase is price of feed, it is not possible to increase the price of broiler. Egg prices in the markets have shown an increase.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Nov 25, 2006
Corn prices have remained stable for 2 weeks now, with delivered prices close to Rs.8000 – 8200 per MT range average. In some areas delivered prices are as high as Rs.9000 per MT. The prices are higher than last year by 15% over last year at this time of the year. There has been speculation in the market and reports suggested that GOI will ban exports of maize from India, but this has not happened. The end users are keenly watching the situation and hoping for a relief from the Government by way of ban on exports on a short term.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices from the first week of Nov 2006 have increased from Rs.6600 per MT to Rs.7950 per MT at the market yard, an increase of 20.4%. The prices are also higher than maize (at market yard) by 20%. Under normal circumstances the prices of pearl millet during the harvest would be lower than maize, but not this time. In the last 2 months, it has been only one week (last week of Oct 2006), when the price of Pearl Millet was lower than maize.
Prices of Sorghum on the other size has been showing a downward trend, which average prices currently at Rs.7600 per MT at the Market Yard. The prices are still higher that the maize prices at the market yard by 16%%.
Barley prices have shown the highest increase in these last two weeks and have increased to Rs.8000 per MT from Rs.6900 per MT at the market yard, an increase of 16%. Last week the prices were at a high of Rs.8600 per MT at the market yard. The prices during the last year were at the range of Rs.8600 per Mt level at the market yard.
Before the Thanksgiving Holiday, the CBOT closed higher at $142.72 [per MT) for Dec delivery. The March 2007 delivery was higher at $148.86 per MT. After the holiday the market closed higher with Dec delivery at $145.32 per MT and March delivery at $152 per MT. This is unprecedented increase.
Tighter grain supplies, high prices forecast for 2006-07
The International Grain Council (IGC), has forecast a wheat production of 587 MMT in 2006-07, lower by almost 31 MMT over 2005-06. The Corn production is forecast at 688 MMT, down by almost 5 MMT over 2005-06. The consumption of corn as per IGC is expected to be 721 MMT, higher than 2005-06 estimates of 700 MMT.
IGC also reports that the corn carry over stocks in US in 2006-07 are expected to be 23.8 MMT, which is less than half from last year’s 50.1 MMT.
This is the second year in the row that the world grain production will be lower, while consumption will be up, signalling tighter supplies and higher prices for 2006-07.
Chinese government has finally confirmed that they have issued export permits for 4 MMT of corn from Nov 2006 to Feb 2007, but there have been reports that the 1 MMT corn export slated for Nov – DEC 2006 is delayed. Speculation on exports from China, have also increased the local prices in China. In Argentina, the permits for new crop export registrations are on hold, as the government audits the registrations and wishes to introduce a higher export tax.
Increased cost of production of eggs and broilers – effects profits of farmers
As the delivered price of maize have increased to levels beyond Rs.9000.00 per MT, the price of feed which constitutes 55 – 60 percent maize, have also gone up, thus signalling the increase in cost of production of eggs and broilers.
When maize was delivered to the feed mills and farms at Rs.6000 per MT, the feed prices were in the range Rs.9000-9500 per MT and the cost of production of live broilers ranged from Rs.25 per kg in South India to Rs.29 per kg in North India.
With the price of maize at Rs.9000 – 9300 per MT at several locations, the feed prices have reached Rs.13000 – 13500 per MT, and the cost of production of live broilers is up to Rs.33 per kg in South and Rs.38 in North India. The market prices though have not gone up so much, thus effecting the profit margins of the farmers.
The cost of production of eggs which used to be average at Rs.1.11 each at times when price of maize was Rs.6000 per MT, has now gone up to Rs.1.41 each at these times.
While some state governments like Maharashtra have increased the sale price of milk by Rs.1.00 per kg (to the consumer) due to increase is price of feed, it is not possible to increase the price of broiler. Egg prices in the markets have shown an increase.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Nov 25, 2006
Saturday, November 11, 2006
Maize Prices shoot up in India; USGC Poultry Team back in India
Maize Prices shoot up in India
This week prices of maize on an average were Rs.7890 per MT delivered, but certain markets hovered at over Rs.9000 per ton mark (delivered). The increase in prices has created a chaos in the market and affected all end users.
Gujarat Rs.9140, Rajasthan Rs.9440, Karnataka Rs.7780, TN and AP Rs.7340, UP Rs.8280 (All prices approximate delivered at the feed mill, starch mills on per ton basis).
The major reason attributed to the increased price is the rise in demand from Poultry and increased demand from South East Asia due to high US prices. There are reports of demands from Malaysia and Sri Lanka which a few Indian traders are trying to fulfil at the cost of Indian end users (poultry and starch sector).
At the end of October the average prices at the market yard were Rs.6000 per MT and with the current price Rs.6575 per MT, this is an increase 9.5% in 2 weeks, which is high. The average price is higher than last year by 12.1%.
Even in production centres like Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh the prices have increased to a level making it unaffordable for the end users.
Market Yard prices in some areas are as under Karnataka Rs.6500 per MT, Madhya Pradesh Rs.6850 per MT, Rajashtan Rs.7860 per MT.
In Tamilnadu the prices at the market yard increased from Rs.5700 per Mt to Rs.6030 this week and increase of 5.8%, Maharashtra Rs.6030 per MT to Rs.6350 per MT, an increase of 5.3%, Gujarat Rs.7225 per Mt to Rs.7630 per MT, increase of 5.6%. The maximum increase was in Andhra Pradesh, where the prices have gone up from Rs.5475 per MT to Rs.6120 per MT, an increase of 11.8% and all this in one week.
With prices of other ingredients (alternate) like Sorghum and Pearl Millet also high, poultry sector is finding it difficult to fed the birds for production of meat or eggs. Over the last few years there were instances wherein poultry sector has used rice cutting to cover the energy in feeds, but with its availability also poor (demand high for food purposes), it is becoming impossible to feed the birds.
US prices ended a little higher than last week at $135 per MT for December deliveries. The prices were up within the week. Looking at these prices the CNF prices (Indian port) will be close to $205 per MT (Rs.9430 per MT)
This may not be the best time to import maize into India and there is no price parity, but in order to give a choice, Government of India would need to ease restrictions on imports and remove the duty of 15% on import of maize and review the quota mechanism, which will give access to the end users to fulfil their requirements from the world market as and when required. With imports allowed without duty, the market sentiment would help in reducing the prices.
USGC Poultry Team back in India
The 8 member poultry team sponsored by USGC to tour the US Poultry sector to study the marketing and packaging trends, returned this week after meeting with the key people in US poultry industry. The team met with USDA officials in Washington. In North West Arkansas, the team was in the hometown of Tyson and Walmart and visited the corporate offices of the Poultry and Retail bigwigs.
Based on the discussions the team had with the best in the field, the team was able to put a time line on India’s position against US. Indian poultry is at a point where the US sector was in 1972. Though it will not take 34 years to reach where the US sector is today, the Indian poultry sector will need to embrace innovations and invest in the retail infrastructure to sell more.
Another major learning was the fact that the majority of the chicken sold in the market, parts or value added was chilled with the average shelf life of over 12 days. In India the shelf life provided is about 3 days on chilled product. The major difference is in the chilling process wherein the product is deep chilled and is distributed at O deg C in US. In India the product is chilled at 4 deg C and the temperature during distribution and sale is up at 6 deg C, which is detrimental to the shelf life of chicken.
The team also studied the various packing models and systems which are used by the companies and which help the consumers to identify the product and are convenient as well.
The team would be working together to put out the set of observations and recommendations for the Industry, academics and the government which will help the sector to grow faster.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Nov 11, 2006
This week prices of maize on an average were Rs.7890 per MT delivered, but certain markets hovered at over Rs.9000 per ton mark (delivered). The increase in prices has created a chaos in the market and affected all end users.
Gujarat Rs.9140, Rajasthan Rs.9440, Karnataka Rs.7780, TN and AP Rs.7340, UP Rs.8280 (All prices approximate delivered at the feed mill, starch mills on per ton basis).
The major reason attributed to the increased price is the rise in demand from Poultry and increased demand from South East Asia due to high US prices. There are reports of demands from Malaysia and Sri Lanka which a few Indian traders are trying to fulfil at the cost of Indian end users (poultry and starch sector).
At the end of October the average prices at the market yard were Rs.6000 per MT and with the current price Rs.6575 per MT, this is an increase 9.5% in 2 weeks, which is high. The average price is higher than last year by 12.1%.
Even in production centres like Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh the prices have increased to a level making it unaffordable for the end users.
Market Yard prices in some areas are as under Karnataka Rs.6500 per MT, Madhya Pradesh Rs.6850 per MT, Rajashtan Rs.7860 per MT.
In Tamilnadu the prices at the market yard increased from Rs.5700 per Mt to Rs.6030 this week and increase of 5.8%, Maharashtra Rs.6030 per MT to Rs.6350 per MT, an increase of 5.3%, Gujarat Rs.7225 per Mt to Rs.7630 per MT, increase of 5.6%. The maximum increase was in Andhra Pradesh, where the prices have gone up from Rs.5475 per MT to Rs.6120 per MT, an increase of 11.8% and all this in one week.
With prices of other ingredients (alternate) like Sorghum and Pearl Millet also high, poultry sector is finding it difficult to fed the birds for production of meat or eggs. Over the last few years there were instances wherein poultry sector has used rice cutting to cover the energy in feeds, but with its availability also poor (demand high for food purposes), it is becoming impossible to feed the birds.
US prices ended a little higher than last week at $135 per MT for December deliveries. The prices were up within the week. Looking at these prices the CNF prices (Indian port) will be close to $205 per MT (Rs.9430 per MT)
This may not be the best time to import maize into India and there is no price parity, but in order to give a choice, Government of India would need to ease restrictions on imports and remove the duty of 15% on import of maize and review the quota mechanism, which will give access to the end users to fulfil their requirements from the world market as and when required. With imports allowed without duty, the market sentiment would help in reducing the prices.
USGC Poultry Team back in India
The 8 member poultry team sponsored by USGC to tour the US Poultry sector to study the marketing and packaging trends, returned this week after meeting with the key people in US poultry industry. The team met with USDA officials in Washington. In North West Arkansas, the team was in the hometown of Tyson and Walmart and visited the corporate offices of the Poultry and Retail bigwigs.
Based on the discussions the team had with the best in the field, the team was able to put a time line on India’s position against US. Indian poultry is at a point where the US sector was in 1972. Though it will not take 34 years to reach where the US sector is today, the Indian poultry sector will need to embrace innovations and invest in the retail infrastructure to sell more.
Another major learning was the fact that the majority of the chicken sold in the market, parts or value added was chilled with the average shelf life of over 12 days. In India the shelf life provided is about 3 days on chilled product. The major difference is in the chilling process wherein the product is deep chilled and is distributed at O deg C in US. In India the product is chilled at 4 deg C and the temperature during distribution and sale is up at 6 deg C, which is detrimental to the shelf life of chicken.
The team also studied the various packing models and systems which are used by the companies and which help the consumers to identify the product and are convenient as well.
The team would be working together to put out the set of observations and recommendations for the Industry, academics and the government which will help the sector to grow faster.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Nov 11, 2006
Saturday, October 28, 2006
Coarse Grain Prices stable; Corn prices are likely to remain high in US
Coarse Grain Prices stable
During the week of festivities the market was not very high, arrivals were slow and producers, traders and buyers were busy with the festival. The market opened with a high note.
The average maize prices at the market yard was marginally up over last week at Rs.6000 per MT. The prices are higher than last year price at the same time by approximately 8.6%. The average prices in Karnataka have shown an upward trend and have moved up from Rs.5500 per MT last week to Rs.6100 per MT. The prices in Punjab, Rajasthan though have shown a downward trend.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices are down by about Rs.420 per MT over last week to Rs.5850 per MT, a down of 6.7%. Also the prics are lower than last year by 1.2%. The prices are also lower than maize by 2.4%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices have also shown a downward trend and were down by Rs.450 per MT at Rs.6400 per Mt over last week, a drop of 6.6%. The prices though are higher than last year by 4%. As against maize, the prices are higher by 7.5%.
Barley prices have remained stable at about Rs.8000 per MT levels at the market yard, but the arrivals are small. Delivered prices are close to Rs.9000 – 9200 per MT. The prices are similar to last year. The Minimum Support Price for barley has been increased from Rs.5500 per MT to Rs.5650 per MT.
There are reports suggesting Indian corn is competitive in the South East Market and some cargoes have been sold at $160 FOB (Chennai). With US prices touching over $150 FOB, the buyers will look for the nearest supplier. Exports being open from India, there is a likelihood of some boatloads will find buyers in this area.
Market sentiment suggests a price increase in the coming months even at the time when harvest would just be over. In addition a swing toward wheat in some of the maize belts cannot be ruled out, if the Minimum Support Price (MSP for wheat is increased.
Corn closed higher on Friday at $3.32 per bushel ($130.83 per MT) an increase of almost $7.7 per MT over last week’s close. FOB values (US Gulf) are at a high of $155 – 156 per MT.
Corn prices are likely to remain high in US
Many analysts now believe that the corn prices in US will remain high. The prices touched a high of $124.77 per MT at CBOT on Oct 13, 2006 and since then have not come down. Corn prices closed at $130.83 on Oct 27, 2006.
Despite a crop size of almost 277 MMT, the third largest U.S. crop the prices have gone up sharply. Market analysts believe that this is mainly due to
a. Declining world wheat stocks because of Australian drought.
b. Lower ending stocks estimates from 30.98 MMT (Sept 2006) to 24.36 MMT in Nov 2006.
There is a general concern that there would be a need to increase the corn plantings substantially in 2007 to cover the demand for ethanol. As reports suggest 53% of the corn has been harvested.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Oct 28, 2006
During the week of festivities the market was not very high, arrivals were slow and producers, traders and buyers were busy with the festival. The market opened with a high note.
The average maize prices at the market yard was marginally up over last week at Rs.6000 per MT. The prices are higher than last year price at the same time by approximately 8.6%. The average prices in Karnataka have shown an upward trend and have moved up from Rs.5500 per MT last week to Rs.6100 per MT. The prices in Punjab, Rajasthan though have shown a downward trend.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices are down by about Rs.420 per MT over last week to Rs.5850 per MT, a down of 6.7%. Also the prics are lower than last year by 1.2%. The prices are also lower than maize by 2.4%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices have also shown a downward trend and were down by Rs.450 per MT at Rs.6400 per Mt over last week, a drop of 6.6%. The prices though are higher than last year by 4%. As against maize, the prices are higher by 7.5%.
Barley prices have remained stable at about Rs.8000 per MT levels at the market yard, but the arrivals are small. Delivered prices are close to Rs.9000 – 9200 per MT. The prices are similar to last year. The Minimum Support Price for barley has been increased from Rs.5500 per MT to Rs.5650 per MT.
There are reports suggesting Indian corn is competitive in the South East Market and some cargoes have been sold at $160 FOB (Chennai). With US prices touching over $150 FOB, the buyers will look for the nearest supplier. Exports being open from India, there is a likelihood of some boatloads will find buyers in this area.
Market sentiment suggests a price increase in the coming months even at the time when harvest would just be over. In addition a swing toward wheat in some of the maize belts cannot be ruled out, if the Minimum Support Price (MSP for wheat is increased.
Corn closed higher on Friday at $3.32 per bushel ($130.83 per MT) an increase of almost $7.7 per MT over last week’s close. FOB values (US Gulf) are at a high of $155 – 156 per MT.
Corn prices are likely to remain high in US
Many analysts now believe that the corn prices in US will remain high. The prices touched a high of $124.77 per MT at CBOT on Oct 13, 2006 and since then have not come down. Corn prices closed at $130.83 on Oct 27, 2006.
Despite a crop size of almost 277 MMT, the third largest U.S. crop the prices have gone up sharply. Market analysts believe that this is mainly due to
a. Declining world wheat stocks because of Australian drought.
b. Lower ending stocks estimates from 30.98 MMT (Sept 2006) to 24.36 MMT in Nov 2006.
There is a general concern that there would be a need to increase the corn plantings substantially in 2007 to cover the demand for ethanol. As reports suggest 53% of the corn has been harvested.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Oct 28, 2006
Friday, October 20, 2006
Coarse Grain Prices remain high; International Biotechnology Information Conference 2006 in the US
Coarse Grain Prices remain high
As we enter the festive season, Diwali and Eid and people get busy with their purchases etc, the end users of coarse cereals will be a worried lot. Even though harvest of coarse grain is half way through, prices at the market yard are still ruling high.
The average maize price at the market yard was marginally down by 0.5% over last week at Rs.5975 per MT, and the price is still higher than last year’s price of Rs.5780 per MT, by 3.5%. As weather turns good, marriage season starts, poultry farmers are likely to put in more birds, turning the pressure on maize.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices are marginally up by 0.6% over last week at Rs.6270 per MT. The price is higher over last year’s price of Rs.6075 per MT by 3.2%. The price of Pearl Millet is also higher than maize by approximately 5%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices also moved up marginally by 0.5% to Rs.6900 per MT at the Market Yard. The prices are also higher than last year’s price of Rs.6250 per MT by 10.3%. As against Maize, the prices are higher by 15.4%, making maize a grain of choice for the poultry farmers, unless some low quality sorghum is available at a cheaper price.
Barley prices moves up substantially this week, up by 7.3% over last week to Rs.8150 per MT. Last year too the prices were at the same level.
With the maize prices still lower than sorghum and pearl millet, pressure on maize will be high. With production in Khariff limited to 11.00 MMT as per GOI estimate and demand higher, prices are likely to remain high.
Prices of Maize at CBOT moved up slightly and closed at $124.37 per MT on Thursday. FOB value New Orleans (US Gulf) would be close to $145 – 146 per MT range.
International Biotechnology Information Conference 2006 in the US
The 5th International Biotechnology Information Conference sponsored by U.S. Grains Council, Iowa Corn Promotion Board, Nebraska Corn Board and National Corn Growers Association in underway in the US. About 70 policy makers from 20 countries are taking part in 5 day event to gain insight into the agricultural commodity chain in Iowa and Nebraska while also learning the practice of risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and decision making.
Over the last couple of years, the council though its partners has organized events in US and have produced many publications on various aspects of biotechnology. One such publication produced with National Corn Growers Association is the Biotechnology Reference Guide which contains important information on the science of biotechnology in layman terms. The guide can be down loaded from NGCA website and is available on the link given below
http://www.ncga.com/biotechnology/pdfs/ReferenceGuide/guide.pdf
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Oct 20, 2006
As we enter the festive season, Diwali and Eid and people get busy with their purchases etc, the end users of coarse cereals will be a worried lot. Even though harvest of coarse grain is half way through, prices at the market yard are still ruling high.
The average maize price at the market yard was marginally down by 0.5% over last week at Rs.5975 per MT, and the price is still higher than last year’s price of Rs.5780 per MT, by 3.5%. As weather turns good, marriage season starts, poultry farmers are likely to put in more birds, turning the pressure on maize.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices are marginally up by 0.6% over last week at Rs.6270 per MT. The price is higher over last year’s price of Rs.6075 per MT by 3.2%. The price of Pearl Millet is also higher than maize by approximately 5%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices also moved up marginally by 0.5% to Rs.6900 per MT at the Market Yard. The prices are also higher than last year’s price of Rs.6250 per MT by 10.3%. As against Maize, the prices are higher by 15.4%, making maize a grain of choice for the poultry farmers, unless some low quality sorghum is available at a cheaper price.
Barley prices moves up substantially this week, up by 7.3% over last week to Rs.8150 per MT. Last year too the prices were at the same level.
With the maize prices still lower than sorghum and pearl millet, pressure on maize will be high. With production in Khariff limited to 11.00 MMT as per GOI estimate and demand higher, prices are likely to remain high.
Prices of Maize at CBOT moved up slightly and closed at $124.37 per MT on Thursday. FOB value New Orleans (US Gulf) would be close to $145 – 146 per MT range.
International Biotechnology Information Conference 2006 in the US
The 5th International Biotechnology Information Conference sponsored by U.S. Grains Council, Iowa Corn Promotion Board, Nebraska Corn Board and National Corn Growers Association in underway in the US. About 70 policy makers from 20 countries are taking part in 5 day event to gain insight into the agricultural commodity chain in Iowa and Nebraska while also learning the practice of risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and decision making.
Over the last couple of years, the council though its partners has organized events in US and have produced many publications on various aspects of biotechnology. One such publication produced with National Corn Growers Association is the Biotechnology Reference Guide which contains important information on the science of biotechnology in layman terms. The guide can be down loaded from NGCA website and is available on the link given below
http://www.ncga.com/biotechnology/pdfs/ReferenceGuide/guide.pdf
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Oct 20, 2006
Saturday, October 14, 2006
Corn prices stabilize; Recommendation from USGC Poultry Marketing Seminar
Corn prices stabilize
The average corn prices in the market yard across the country stabilized at Rs.6000 per ton, but the prices are higher than last year by 4.2% at the market yard. The average delivered price is about Rs.7200 per MT. In Punjab even with the new crop the price is about Rs.7300 per MT delivered, while in parts of Andhra Pradesh prices are at Rs.6300 – Rs.6500 per MT delivered.
Pearl Millet (Bajra), prices have come down from last week’s price of Rs.6700 per MT to Rs.6200 per MT this week, drop of 7.5%, but the prices are higher than last year’s value by 2.4%. In comparison to corn, the prices are still higher by 3.8%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices have also come down from Rs.7100 per MT to Rs.6800 – Rs.6900 per MT range, drop of 2.8% at the market yard. The prices are also much lower than last years price of Rs.7800 at this time of the year. As against corn, the pieces are higher than corn by 14.3%, making it impossible for its use in poultry ration as replacing corn.
Barley prices have risen this week to Rs.7500 – Rs.7600 per MT range. Delivered prices are ranging from Rs.8300 – Rs.8500 per MT. As per reports available the prices are likely to remain high and small quantities are coming into the market and the trade anticipates a shortage of crop.
The price of corn in US has climbed yet again and CBOT closed at $123.75 per MT for Dec delivery. A year ago, second week of Oct 2005, the a ton of corn at CBOT traded at $80.2 per MT, a month back (Sept 2006) the price was $95.1 per MT.
As per the latest WASDE report, released on Oct 12, 2006, the world production of corn in 2006-07 is expected to be 689.14 MMT, down from 2005-06 estimated production of 692.74 MMT. The production in US is expected to be down to 277 MMT and the total harvested acres are also expected to be down to 71 Million acres. The average productivity is 3.90 tons/acre.
Production and export surplus in other countries is as under, Argentina, 17.5 MMT, with an exportable surplus of 11.5 MMT, Brazil, 40.5 MMT with an exportable surplus of 1.5 MMT and China, 141 MMT with an exportable surplus of 4.0 MMT.
The 2006/07, marketing year average price is raised to $2.40 to $2.80 per bushel ($94.46 – 110.21 per MT), reflecting the tight stocks and higher demand.
Recommendation from USGC Poultry Marketing Seminar
While on a visit to India Dr.James Denton and Dr.John Marcy in Sept 2006, apart for conducting seminars and one to one meetings with the poultry processors, also carried out a bench marking exercise of the chicken and chicken products being sold in India. Some of the critical observations and recommendations made by them are listed below.
Observations
1. Indian poultry processors demonstrated a wide array of products with marketing and packaging systems ranging from excellent (one processor) to very poor dependent on brand. The retail markets also demonstrated a wide array of product display locations and formats, also ranging from excellent to very poor. This lack of shelf space and priority display location was evident every where.
2. Cold chain management is a serious concern with distribution not controlled by the processor. This includes mismanagement of product by the retailer.
3. There is a lack of relationship between poultry processors and the retailer with regard to product display location and inventory management & between the retailer and the Indian consumers with regard to communication and consumer feedback.
4. The lack of a government inspection system (covering only frozen chicken) also results in a lower acceptance of mechanically processed chicken.
Recommendations
1. The government of India must develop a single poultry inspection system to assure that safe and wholesome product is provided to the Indian consumer. A proper inspection system, wherein all chicken products (chilled or frozen) are covered and receive a certification from the federal inspector would be trusted by the consumer. Random checks on plant through third party testing can be mandated.
2. Industry needs to work together on formulating standards which can be used by the trade organizations and provided to its members.
3. Poultry processors need to develop mechanisms to interface directly with consumers of poultry products. The absolute minimum should be a toll free 800-number placed on every package of product offered in the retail market. This will enable the processor to hear directly from the consumer and not through the filter of a retailer.
4. Individual poultry processors must develop improved relationships with retail market management personnel. One of the key factors which needs improvement is product placement in the retail store in priority locations rather than in obscure locations.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Oct 14, 2006
The average corn prices in the market yard across the country stabilized at Rs.6000 per ton, but the prices are higher than last year by 4.2% at the market yard. The average delivered price is about Rs.7200 per MT. In Punjab even with the new crop the price is about Rs.7300 per MT delivered, while in parts of Andhra Pradesh prices are at Rs.6300 – Rs.6500 per MT delivered.
Pearl Millet (Bajra), prices have come down from last week’s price of Rs.6700 per MT to Rs.6200 per MT this week, drop of 7.5%, but the prices are higher than last year’s value by 2.4%. In comparison to corn, the prices are still higher by 3.8%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices have also come down from Rs.7100 per MT to Rs.6800 – Rs.6900 per MT range, drop of 2.8% at the market yard. The prices are also much lower than last years price of Rs.7800 at this time of the year. As against corn, the pieces are higher than corn by 14.3%, making it impossible for its use in poultry ration as replacing corn.
Barley prices have risen this week to Rs.7500 – Rs.7600 per MT range. Delivered prices are ranging from Rs.8300 – Rs.8500 per MT. As per reports available the prices are likely to remain high and small quantities are coming into the market and the trade anticipates a shortage of crop.
The price of corn in US has climbed yet again and CBOT closed at $123.75 per MT for Dec delivery. A year ago, second week of Oct 2005, the a ton of corn at CBOT traded at $80.2 per MT, a month back (Sept 2006) the price was $95.1 per MT.
As per the latest WASDE report, released on Oct 12, 2006, the world production of corn in 2006-07 is expected to be 689.14 MMT, down from 2005-06 estimated production of 692.74 MMT. The production in US is expected to be down to 277 MMT and the total harvested acres are also expected to be down to 71 Million acres. The average productivity is 3.90 tons/acre.
Production and export surplus in other countries is as under, Argentina, 17.5 MMT, with an exportable surplus of 11.5 MMT, Brazil, 40.5 MMT with an exportable surplus of 1.5 MMT and China, 141 MMT with an exportable surplus of 4.0 MMT.
The 2006/07, marketing year average price is raised to $2.40 to $2.80 per bushel ($94.46 – 110.21 per MT), reflecting the tight stocks and higher demand.
Recommendation from USGC Poultry Marketing Seminar
While on a visit to India Dr.James Denton and Dr.John Marcy in Sept 2006, apart for conducting seminars and one to one meetings with the poultry processors, also carried out a bench marking exercise of the chicken and chicken products being sold in India. Some of the critical observations and recommendations made by them are listed below.
Observations
1. Indian poultry processors demonstrated a wide array of products with marketing and packaging systems ranging from excellent (one processor) to very poor dependent on brand. The retail markets also demonstrated a wide array of product display locations and formats, also ranging from excellent to very poor. This lack of shelf space and priority display location was evident every where.
2. Cold chain management is a serious concern with distribution not controlled by the processor. This includes mismanagement of product by the retailer.
3. There is a lack of relationship between poultry processors and the retailer with regard to product display location and inventory management & between the retailer and the Indian consumers with regard to communication and consumer feedback.
4. The lack of a government inspection system (covering only frozen chicken) also results in a lower acceptance of mechanically processed chicken.
Recommendations
1. The government of India must develop a single poultry inspection system to assure that safe and wholesome product is provided to the Indian consumer. A proper inspection system, wherein all chicken products (chilled or frozen) are covered and receive a certification from the federal inspector would be trusted by the consumer. Random checks on plant through third party testing can be mandated.
2. Industry needs to work together on formulating standards which can be used by the trade organizations and provided to its members.
3. Poultry processors need to develop mechanisms to interface directly with consumers of poultry products. The absolute minimum should be a toll free 800-number placed on every package of product offered in the retail market. This will enable the processor to hear directly from the consumer and not through the filter of a retailer.
4. Individual poultry processors must develop improved relationships with retail market management personnel. One of the key factors which needs improvement is product placement in the retail store in priority locations rather than in obscure locations.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Oct 14, 2006
Sunday, October 08, 2006
Corn down, all other commodity prices jump; Importance of Biotech - all over the world
Corn down, all other commodity prices jump
Since last week corn prices all over the country have shown a decline in the markets, Average market yard price is down from Rs.6500 per MT to Rs.6000 per MT, a decline of approximately 7.7% in one week, but the prices are still higher than last years price of Rs.5690 per MT, about 5.4% higher than last year.
Prices of other commodities have shown an upward trend since last week and Pearl millet prices are higher by about 9.5%, reaching Rs.6790 per MT. The prices are also higher than last year by 15.3%. As compared to corn, the prices are higher by 13%.
Sorghum prices are stable, but are higher than last years price by 10%. As compared to corn the prices are higher by 19%.
Barley prices in the market yard have shown an upward trend and reached a level of Rs.7300 – Rs.7500 per MT. The delivered prices have gone up to Rs.8800 per MT.
It is likely that the prices will remain higher and pressure on corn will remain as more chicken placements is happening for the coming festival season and the temperature would be conducive for the growth. With other grain prices also higher and farmers/feed manufacturers unable to use these, the pressure will remain on corn.
In China, USGC officers completed the crop tour and the production estimates are close to 139.4 MMT, lower than the official estimates by 2.6 MMT. The low production is attributed to drought and insect damage. The consumption of corn is rising due to the increasing demand of meat, milk and eggs and increase in urbanization, buying power.
Prices of Corn in US on CBOT moves a little higher than last week’s $103 per MT to $106.67 per Mt for Dec 2006 deliveries. The price for March 2007 delivery was much higher at $ 111.78 per MT.
Importance of Biotech - all over the world
It has just become necessary to look beyond sustainable agriculture production to meet the needs of the people. As the global grain stocks plummet and demand grows, the prices are likely to remain firm. As per the ERS, USDA report, the prices in for the US farmer will be $85 – 100 per MT for the year 2006-07. Last year the average price was $78.32 per MT.
As the demand grows, productions get affected due to various reasons, it is being felt that Biotech products would be the key that will help in overcoming the demand and meet the supply of the commodities.
In its final report on Sept 29, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has found that the European Union’s has failed to act on biotechnology approvals.
This report upholds the claim by the United States, Argentina and Canada that the EU’s failure to act on biotech applications constitutes an unjustifiable impediment to trade. In addition, the report requires EU member states to eliminate national bans on products already approved by the EU. France, Germany, Luxembourg, Austria, Italy and Greece have each banned EU-approved biotech products, but have not provided sufficient scientific evidence of risks to either people or the environment.
As Australia grapples with the worst drought of the century,, the Australian states have been told to lift moratorium on genetically modified crops. Reports indicate that of states of Victoria and New South Wales (NSW) moved ahead and allowed GM crop cultivation, other states would also move ahead. There is only 5 – 10% chance that Australia will receive rain and it the drought persists, GM technology would be a boon.
Experience in other parts of the world, wherever the technology has been used, has showed GM crops offer cost efficiencies for producers as well as environmental benefits. It has now a known fact that India in No. 2 in Cotton production, thanks to the GM technology and the introduction on Bt Cotton seed which has helped the farmers in India.
Companies like Monsanto are working against time to bring out drought tolerant GM products including corn, which will have increase upto 8 – 10% in dry conditions
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Oct 7, 2006
Since last week corn prices all over the country have shown a decline in the markets, Average market yard price is down from Rs.6500 per MT to Rs.6000 per MT, a decline of approximately 7.7% in one week, but the prices are still higher than last years price of Rs.5690 per MT, about 5.4% higher than last year.
Prices of other commodities have shown an upward trend since last week and Pearl millet prices are higher by about 9.5%, reaching Rs.6790 per MT. The prices are also higher than last year by 15.3%. As compared to corn, the prices are higher by 13%.
Sorghum prices are stable, but are higher than last years price by 10%. As compared to corn the prices are higher by 19%.
Barley prices in the market yard have shown an upward trend and reached a level of Rs.7300 – Rs.7500 per MT. The delivered prices have gone up to Rs.8800 per MT.
It is likely that the prices will remain higher and pressure on corn will remain as more chicken placements is happening for the coming festival season and the temperature would be conducive for the growth. With other grain prices also higher and farmers/feed manufacturers unable to use these, the pressure will remain on corn.
In China, USGC officers completed the crop tour and the production estimates are close to 139.4 MMT, lower than the official estimates by 2.6 MMT. The low production is attributed to drought and insect damage. The consumption of corn is rising due to the increasing demand of meat, milk and eggs and increase in urbanization, buying power.
Prices of Corn in US on CBOT moves a little higher than last week’s $103 per MT to $106.67 per Mt for Dec 2006 deliveries. The price for March 2007 delivery was much higher at $ 111.78 per MT.
Importance of Biotech - all over the world
It has just become necessary to look beyond sustainable agriculture production to meet the needs of the people. As the global grain stocks plummet and demand grows, the prices are likely to remain firm. As per the ERS, USDA report, the prices in for the US farmer will be $85 – 100 per MT for the year 2006-07. Last year the average price was $78.32 per MT.
As the demand grows, productions get affected due to various reasons, it is being felt that Biotech products would be the key that will help in overcoming the demand and meet the supply of the commodities.
In its final report on Sept 29, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has found that the European Union’s has failed to act on biotechnology approvals.
This report upholds the claim by the United States, Argentina and Canada that the EU’s failure to act on biotech applications constitutes an unjustifiable impediment to trade. In addition, the report requires EU member states to eliminate national bans on products already approved by the EU. France, Germany, Luxembourg, Austria, Italy and Greece have each banned EU-approved biotech products, but have not provided sufficient scientific evidence of risks to either people or the environment.
As Australia grapples with the worst drought of the century,, the Australian states have been told to lift moratorium on genetically modified crops. Reports indicate that of states of Victoria and New South Wales (NSW) moved ahead and allowed GM crop cultivation, other states would also move ahead. There is only 5 – 10% chance that Australia will receive rain and it the drought persists, GM technology would be a boon.
Experience in other parts of the world, wherever the technology has been used, has showed GM crops offer cost efficiencies for producers as well as environmental benefits. It has now a known fact that India in No. 2 in Cotton production, thanks to the GM technology and the introduction on Bt Cotton seed which has helped the farmers in India.
Companies like Monsanto are working against time to bring out drought tolerant GM products including corn, which will have increase upto 8 – 10% in dry conditions
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Oct 7, 2006
Saturday, September 30, 2006
Commodity prices stable, but increase over the year; The China Story – increasing corn consumption.
Commodity prices stable, but increase over the year
The average corn prices across the country remained stable at about Rs.6500 per Mt at the market yard. The prices were higher than last year by 9.1%. Taking the average prices over the year, Nov – Sept (11 month period), the average delivered price of maize in 2004-05 was Rs.6833 per MT, while in 2005-06 the prices increased to Rs.7321 per MT, an increase of over 7.21% in one year. This increase has surely increase the cost of production eggs and poultry meat and have reduced the profitability of the farmers in this one year, wherein the farmers also suffered a huge loss due to bird flue episode. The increased cost of production of end products is also an issue with the starch manufacturers, whose profitability would also be affected. There is also an indication that in order to cover the losses or keep the profits stable, sale price of the maize products (starch and other value added products) is increased, which will affect the other users also, like textile, pharma, candy, food, paper etc.
Though the market yard prices of barley were reported to be lower, some areas reported higher prices, indicating a higher trade margins due to slower deliveries into the market yards and a lower production. The prices this week indicate a upward trend and reports available indicate a higher price of Rs.7600 per MT. The prices are close to last year levels at this time of the year. The delivered prices thus would be close to Rs.9000 per MT, which is much higher than the anticipated price. Even though the barley consumption in brewery and beverages sector has grown significantly in the last few years, it is still lower than international standards.
Sorghum prices at the market yard have come down to Rs.7300 per MT, lower than last week’s prices by 7.6% and also lower than last year’s prices by 7.7%. the prices are still significantly higher than maize (12.3%).
Pearl Millet prices in this one week have come down to Rs.6200 per MT, about 4.3% lower than last week, and also 2.5% lower than last year.
The khariff (summer) crop for maize is estimated at 11 MMT and if the Rabi (winter) crop production is added (1.8 MMT), the total production for the year will be about 12.8 MMT as per GOI estimates. The end users sector is of the opinion that the khariff production of maize is about 9.45 MMT and addition of 1.8 MMT in Rabi would make the total of 11.25 MMT. The demand of maize in India is expected to be 13.86 MMT for the year 2006-07. The overall deficit based on industry and GOI production figures could be a low of 1.06 MMT to a high of 2.6 MMT, without taking into account exports to Nepal and Bangladesh.
With such a high demand and low availability the prices are expected to remain high over the next year as well, till steps are taken to stabilize the prices.
Prices of Corn at CBOT moved up by about $3 per MT over last week to 103.28 per MT.
The China Story – increasing corn consumption
China is expected to produce 142 MMT of corn this year, but its own consumption is likely to be much higher than anticipated leaving little for exports, as per the experts.
Some experts believe that the corn consumption in China will grow due to the demand from the industrial sector and the demand from the feed sector may stagnate.
The industrial processing capacity in China which was 50 MMT in 2005 is expected to increase to 70 MMT by 2006 end and 85 MMT by 2007.
Current consumption by industrial sector would be close to 30 MMT in the next year, and most of the new additions are due to new projects for biofuels (ethanol). A new project is likely to come up in Inner Mongolia (North China), which will process 1 MMT of corn a year to manufacture ethanol. Other products include Glycol production, processing 360,000 tons of corn in a year to produce 200,000 tons of glycol.
Demand for other corn-based products, such as High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) as a replacement of sugar is growing, leading to new projects. This is because Chinese become more health conscious and their standard of living rises.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 30, 2006
The average corn prices across the country remained stable at about Rs.6500 per Mt at the market yard. The prices were higher than last year by 9.1%. Taking the average prices over the year, Nov – Sept (11 month period), the average delivered price of maize in 2004-05 was Rs.6833 per MT, while in 2005-06 the prices increased to Rs.7321 per MT, an increase of over 7.21% in one year. This increase has surely increase the cost of production eggs and poultry meat and have reduced the profitability of the farmers in this one year, wherein the farmers also suffered a huge loss due to bird flue episode. The increased cost of production of end products is also an issue with the starch manufacturers, whose profitability would also be affected. There is also an indication that in order to cover the losses or keep the profits stable, sale price of the maize products (starch and other value added products) is increased, which will affect the other users also, like textile, pharma, candy, food, paper etc.
Though the market yard prices of barley were reported to be lower, some areas reported higher prices, indicating a higher trade margins due to slower deliveries into the market yards and a lower production. The prices this week indicate a upward trend and reports available indicate a higher price of Rs.7600 per MT. The prices are close to last year levels at this time of the year. The delivered prices thus would be close to Rs.9000 per MT, which is much higher than the anticipated price. Even though the barley consumption in brewery and beverages sector has grown significantly in the last few years, it is still lower than international standards.
Sorghum prices at the market yard have come down to Rs.7300 per MT, lower than last week’s prices by 7.6% and also lower than last year’s prices by 7.7%. the prices are still significantly higher than maize (12.3%).
Pearl Millet prices in this one week have come down to Rs.6200 per MT, about 4.3% lower than last week, and also 2.5% lower than last year.
The khariff (summer) crop for maize is estimated at 11 MMT and if the Rabi (winter) crop production is added (1.8 MMT), the total production for the year will be about 12.8 MMT as per GOI estimates. The end users sector is of the opinion that the khariff production of maize is about 9.45 MMT and addition of 1.8 MMT in Rabi would make the total of 11.25 MMT. The demand of maize in India is expected to be 13.86 MMT for the year 2006-07. The overall deficit based on industry and GOI production figures could be a low of 1.06 MMT to a high of 2.6 MMT, without taking into account exports to Nepal and Bangladesh.
With such a high demand and low availability the prices are expected to remain high over the next year as well, till steps are taken to stabilize the prices.
Prices of Corn at CBOT moved up by about $3 per MT over last week to 103.28 per MT.
The China Story – increasing corn consumption
China is expected to produce 142 MMT of corn this year, but its own consumption is likely to be much higher than anticipated leaving little for exports, as per the experts.
Some experts believe that the corn consumption in China will grow due to the demand from the industrial sector and the demand from the feed sector may stagnate.
The industrial processing capacity in China which was 50 MMT in 2005 is expected to increase to 70 MMT by 2006 end and 85 MMT by 2007.
Current consumption by industrial sector would be close to 30 MMT in the next year, and most of the new additions are due to new projects for biofuels (ethanol). A new project is likely to come up in Inner Mongolia (North China), which will process 1 MMT of corn a year to manufacture ethanol. Other products include Glycol production, processing 360,000 tons of corn in a year to produce 200,000 tons of glycol.
Demand for other corn-based products, such as High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) as a replacement of sugar is growing, leading to new projects. This is because Chinese become more health conscious and their standard of living rises.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 30, 2006
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Maize Prices stable – but production estimated downward; USGC conducts interactive session on poultry marketing and packaging
Maize Prices stable – but production estimated downward
The maize prices in the last two weeks remained stable at about Rs.6500 per MT and are higher than last year’s prices by approximately 10%. The prices have come down mainly due to some new arrivals in the market yard and also the decision of the GOI to release maize stocks fort he poultry sector at subsidized rates.
Price in comparison to last year - Maize
(Rs./ton at Market Yard)
Sept 06 Sept 13 Sept 20 Sept 27
Sept 06 7404.5 6495.8 6504.8
Sept 05 6854.0 5929.4 5901.8 5947.8
% diff
over
last year8.0 9.6 10.2
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have also been stable at about Rs.6450 over the last two weeks, mainly because of the arrivals in North and Andhra Pradesh. The prices are also lower than last year’s prices by about 5.5%. In comparison with Maize, the price differential is just about 0.8%. (Pearl Millet prices are lower), making it a touch decision to use the commodity in poultry diets as use of the product tends to reduce the efficiency of production in layers and broilers, if not used properly.
Price in comparison to last year - Pearl Millet
(Rs. per MT at Market Yard)
Sept 06 Sept 13 Sept 20 Sept 27
Sept 06 6831.5 6420.2 6453.8
Sept 05 7038.0 5980.0 6831.0 6361.8
% diff
over
last year -2.9 7.4 -5.5
Grain Sorghum (Jowar) prices are stable at about Rs.7800 per MT, but the prices are still higher than last year by about 20%, mainly due to the crop being affected due to floods in growing areas. With the price differential between maize at sorghum at 21%, sorghum being priced higher than maize, it is difficult to use the commodity in poultry diets.
Price in comparison to last year - Sorghum
(Rs. per MT at the Market Yard)
Sept 06 Sept 13 Sept 20 Sept 27
Sept 06 8206.2 7773.1 7883.3
Sept 05 7498.0 7636.0 6559.6 7948.8
% diff
over
last year 9.4 1.8 20.2
Barley prices came down to almost Rs.6200 per MT on the average in the market yard, a drop of almost 21%. The prices are also lower than last year by almost 14%. But as the consumption will increase, it will be difficult to predict the movement of prices.
Price in comparison to last year - Barley
(Rs. per MT at Market Yard)
Sept 06 Sept 13 Sept 20 Sept 27
Sept 06 7834.9 7856.8 6204.0
Sept 05 7185.2 7465.8 7203.6 7304.8
% diff.
over
last year 9.0 5.2 -13.9
Government of India in its first advance estimates for the production of agriculture produce has predicted a drop in production of 105 MMT of food grains, including rice and coarse cereals. The production of coarse cereals is estimated to be 25 MMT, lower than production of last year by almost 2 MMT as per the GOI release. Maize production is estimated at 11 MMT, lower by almost 1.4 MMT. This production is estimated from 7.1 million hac of land with the productivity of 1.54 tons/ha.
GOI has fixed the target for the food grain production for 2006-07 at 220 MMT, which is about 8 – 10 MMT higher than what has been produced on an average over last few years. Most of the targeted increase (5-7 MMT) is for wheat.
The new reports indicate the production of corn in US is 282.31 MMT from 29.07 million ha (71.80 mill acres), with an average productivity of 9.71 tons/ha. Average productivity of corn in India is 6.3 times lower than US.
USGC conducts interactive session on poultry marketing and packaging
U S Grains Council’s has an initiative in India to assist the poultry sector to grow faster and make more profit though sale of hygienically processed chicken to the consumers. The council over the last two (2) years was assisting the chicken processors by providing them information regarding Good Manufacturing Practices, Good Hygienic Practices, Standard Operating Procedures, Standard Sanitary Operating Procedures and HACCP guidelines.
After the bird flue episode it was felt necessary that the sector can take this as an opportunity to market packaged chicken to the consumers at a right price and make them aware of the advantages of buying chicken that has been processed hygienically and packaged.
The council sponsored two eminent scientists from University of Arkansas, Dr.James Denton, Former Head of Centre of Excellence for Poultry Science and Dr.John Marcy, Poultry Extension Scientist. While both are food microbiologists, they have extensive experience in working with poultry meat companies in the US and finding solution to the various problems faced by the industry of packaging and marketing of chicken.
Dr.Denton and Dr.March conducted a bench marking exercise for the products available in some of the key markets and met with the processors and their production and marketing staff and shared ideas on packaging solutions which will help them in moving forward.
One of the major issues discussed was the shelf life of chilled chicken. While in India the shelf life of chilled chicken is 3 days (72 hours), in USA the chilled chicken is safe to consume even after 14 days. This is only possible because of better packaging and maintaining a cold chain. The chilled chicken is kept at -2 deg C in storage and at shops at 1 deg C, which help is keeping the microbial growth in check. In India in most cases chilled chicken is placed on the market shelf where the temperature is 2-4 deg C.
As the retailing sector develops, there is hope that the demand from the retailers for better quality products will help in the development of the processing sector. Reliance Retail, Spensers, Metro Whole Sale have already plans to set up large format stores in major cities across the country which the sector believes would change the way processed chilled chicken is sold in the country.
The seminars conducted by the Council were well attended and one of the conclusions of the seminars was a need for a better interface with the consumers and spreading the message of goodness of processed chicken through generic promotion through cooking competitions, fliers, bill boards etc.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 27, 2006
The maize prices in the last two weeks remained stable at about Rs.6500 per MT and are higher than last year’s prices by approximately 10%. The prices have come down mainly due to some new arrivals in the market yard and also the decision of the GOI to release maize stocks fort he poultry sector at subsidized rates.
Price in comparison to last year - Maize
(Rs./ton at Market Yard)
Sept 06 Sept 13 Sept 20 Sept 27
Sept 06 7404.5 6495.8 6504.8
Sept 05 6854.0 5929.4 5901.8 5947.8
% diff
over
last year8.0 9.6 10.2
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have also been stable at about Rs.6450 over the last two weeks, mainly because of the arrivals in North and Andhra Pradesh. The prices are also lower than last year’s prices by about 5.5%. In comparison with Maize, the price differential is just about 0.8%. (Pearl Millet prices are lower), making it a touch decision to use the commodity in poultry diets as use of the product tends to reduce the efficiency of production in layers and broilers, if not used properly.
Price in comparison to last year - Pearl Millet
(Rs. per MT at Market Yard)
Sept 06 Sept 13 Sept 20 Sept 27
Sept 06 6831.5 6420.2 6453.8
Sept 05 7038.0 5980.0 6831.0 6361.8
% diff
over
last year -2.9 7.4 -5.5
Grain Sorghum (Jowar) prices are stable at about Rs.7800 per MT, but the prices are still higher than last year by about 20%, mainly due to the crop being affected due to floods in growing areas. With the price differential between maize at sorghum at 21%, sorghum being priced higher than maize, it is difficult to use the commodity in poultry diets.
Price in comparison to last year - Sorghum
(Rs. per MT at the Market Yard)
Sept 06 Sept 13 Sept 20 Sept 27
Sept 06 8206.2 7773.1 7883.3
Sept 05 7498.0 7636.0 6559.6 7948.8
% diff
over
last year 9.4 1.8 20.2
Barley prices came down to almost Rs.6200 per MT on the average in the market yard, a drop of almost 21%. The prices are also lower than last year by almost 14%. But as the consumption will increase, it will be difficult to predict the movement of prices.
Price in comparison to last year - Barley
(Rs. per MT at Market Yard)
Sept 06 Sept 13 Sept 20 Sept 27
Sept 06 7834.9 7856.8 6204.0
Sept 05 7185.2 7465.8 7203.6 7304.8
% diff.
over
last year 9.0 5.2 -13.9
Government of India in its first advance estimates for the production of agriculture produce has predicted a drop in production of 105 MMT of food grains, including rice and coarse cereals. The production of coarse cereals is estimated to be 25 MMT, lower than production of last year by almost 2 MMT as per the GOI release. Maize production is estimated at 11 MMT, lower by almost 1.4 MMT. This production is estimated from 7.1 million hac of land with the productivity of 1.54 tons/ha.
GOI has fixed the target for the food grain production for 2006-07 at 220 MMT, which is about 8 – 10 MMT higher than what has been produced on an average over last few years. Most of the targeted increase (5-7 MMT) is for wheat.
The new reports indicate the production of corn in US is 282.31 MMT from 29.07 million ha (71.80 mill acres), with an average productivity of 9.71 tons/ha. Average productivity of corn in India is 6.3 times lower than US.
USGC conducts interactive session on poultry marketing and packaging
U S Grains Council’s has an initiative in India to assist the poultry sector to grow faster and make more profit though sale of hygienically processed chicken to the consumers. The council over the last two (2) years was assisting the chicken processors by providing them information regarding Good Manufacturing Practices, Good Hygienic Practices, Standard Operating Procedures, Standard Sanitary Operating Procedures and HACCP guidelines.
After the bird flue episode it was felt necessary that the sector can take this as an opportunity to market packaged chicken to the consumers at a right price and make them aware of the advantages of buying chicken that has been processed hygienically and packaged.
The council sponsored two eminent scientists from University of Arkansas, Dr.James Denton, Former Head of Centre of Excellence for Poultry Science and Dr.John Marcy, Poultry Extension Scientist. While both are food microbiologists, they have extensive experience in working with poultry meat companies in the US and finding solution to the various problems faced by the industry of packaging and marketing of chicken.
Dr.Denton and Dr.March conducted a bench marking exercise for the products available in some of the key markets and met with the processors and their production and marketing staff and shared ideas on packaging solutions which will help them in moving forward.
One of the major issues discussed was the shelf life of chilled chicken. While in India the shelf life of chilled chicken is 3 days (72 hours), in USA the chilled chicken is safe to consume even after 14 days. This is only possible because of better packaging and maintaining a cold chain. The chilled chicken is kept at -2 deg C in storage and at shops at 1 deg C, which help is keeping the microbial growth in check. In India in most cases chilled chicken is placed on the market shelf where the temperature is 2-4 deg C.
As the retailing sector develops, there is hope that the demand from the retailers for better quality products will help in the development of the processing sector. Reliance Retail, Spensers, Metro Whole Sale have already plans to set up large format stores in major cities across the country which the sector believes would change the way processed chilled chicken is sold in the country.
The seminars conducted by the Council were well attended and one of the conclusions of the seminars was a need for a better interface with the consumers and spreading the message of goodness of processed chicken through generic promotion through cooking competitions, fliers, bill boards etc.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 27, 2006
Saturday, September 16, 2006
Maize Prices decline – but are still higher; WASDE Report projects high corn production and high exports
Maize Prices decline – but are still higher
As the corn from the go-downs of Food Corporation India has started to trickle in the market, the average prices in the market yard have declined from 7400 to 6495, almost 12.2% in last one week and reached mid August 2006 levels. But averages can be deceptive. The corn release was announced in Andhra Pradesh (118,900 tons), Tamil Nadu (96,500 tons), Maharashtra (45,000 tons), Karnataka, Orissa, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Goa (89600 tons collectively). The prices are still high in Uttar Pradesh (Rs.6580), Maharashtra (Rs.7520), Bihar (Rs.6500), Gujarat (Rs.7425), Rajasthan (Rs.7600).
Reports from Bihar indicate extensive damage to stored corn due to improper storage. Wet, high moisture grain in gunny bags is liable to get heated, germinate and spoil and can be the major source of Aflatoxin, which can cause havoc in the poultry and starch sectors alike.
There are reports from Maharashtra that new corn has started to arrive is some markets, but prices are ranging from Rs.6900 to Rs.7400 per ton delivered.
Arrivals of Bajra (pearl Millet) have started in states of Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka and Rajasthan and the prices have started to come down. Average price in the market is Rs.6402 per MT, lower by 6.6% than last week. But the prices are also lower than corn by 1.2%. The prices are higher than last year by 7.2%
Sorghum (Jowar) prices are also down to Rs.7780 per MT at the market yard, and are lower than last week by 5.2%. The prices are similar to last year, but are higher than corn prices by approximately 19.7%.
Barley prices have remained stable and are at Rs.7860 per MT and are higher than last year by about 3%.
Prices in CBOT settled at $95.10 per MT. FOB price, US Gulf were at $120 - $123 from Sept – Dec deliveries. Reports indicate that the freight rates are high and would continue to be move up, till they find resistance.
WASDE Report projects high corn production and high exports
Tha latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report out on Sept 12, 2006, project US corn production at 279.4 MMT, almost 3.5 MMT highr than the last month’s estimate. His would the the second largest corn crop in US history. With china out of the market and US being the only residual supplier of corn in the world, report projects that exports of corn to be about 57.15 MMT, about 2.5 MMT higher than the august estimate. As per FAS report, US would dominate the market with 71% market share in trade, while Argentina would share 14% of the world market.
China though is expected to produce a bumper crop, may just have 5% share in the world market, due to its continuous high dometic demand for the livestock and poultry sectors which are experiencing rapid growth and industrial use. A high meat consumption is largely attributed to higher incomes and urbanization. In Brazil, a similar strong domestic growth is projected to limit exports. Argentine crop would be available for exports only in March 2007.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 15, 2006
As the corn from the go-downs of Food Corporation India has started to trickle in the market, the average prices in the market yard have declined from 7400 to 6495, almost 12.2% in last one week and reached mid August 2006 levels. But averages can be deceptive. The corn release was announced in Andhra Pradesh (118,900 tons), Tamil Nadu (96,500 tons), Maharashtra (45,000 tons), Karnataka, Orissa, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Goa (89600 tons collectively). The prices are still high in Uttar Pradesh (Rs.6580), Maharashtra (Rs.7520), Bihar (Rs.6500), Gujarat (Rs.7425), Rajasthan (Rs.7600).
Reports from Bihar indicate extensive damage to stored corn due to improper storage. Wet, high moisture grain in gunny bags is liable to get heated, germinate and spoil and can be the major source of Aflatoxin, which can cause havoc in the poultry and starch sectors alike.
There are reports from Maharashtra that new corn has started to arrive is some markets, but prices are ranging from Rs.6900 to Rs.7400 per ton delivered.
Arrivals of Bajra (pearl Millet) have started in states of Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka and Rajasthan and the prices have started to come down. Average price in the market is Rs.6402 per MT, lower by 6.6% than last week. But the prices are also lower than corn by 1.2%. The prices are higher than last year by 7.2%
Sorghum (Jowar) prices are also down to Rs.7780 per MT at the market yard, and are lower than last week by 5.2%. The prices are similar to last year, but are higher than corn prices by approximately 19.7%.
Barley prices have remained stable and are at Rs.7860 per MT and are higher than last year by about 3%.
Prices in CBOT settled at $95.10 per MT. FOB price, US Gulf were at $120 - $123 from Sept – Dec deliveries. Reports indicate that the freight rates are high and would continue to be move up, till they find resistance.
WASDE Report projects high corn production and high exports
Tha latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report out on Sept 12, 2006, project US corn production at 279.4 MMT, almost 3.5 MMT highr than the last month’s estimate. His would the the second largest corn crop in US history. With china out of the market and US being the only residual supplier of corn in the world, report projects that exports of corn to be about 57.15 MMT, about 2.5 MMT higher than the august estimate. As per FAS report, US would dominate the market with 71% market share in trade, while Argentina would share 14% of the world market.
China though is expected to produce a bumper crop, may just have 5% share in the world market, due to its continuous high dometic demand for the livestock and poultry sectors which are experiencing rapid growth and industrial use. A high meat consumption is largely attributed to higher incomes and urbanization. In Brazil, a similar strong domestic growth is projected to limit exports. Argentine crop would be available for exports only in March 2007.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 15, 2006
Saturday, September 09, 2006
Maize Prices show unprecedented increase; Learning about Avian Influenza?; Flies are responsible for the spread of Campylobacter
Maize Prices show unprecedented increase
Even after the release of 350,000 tons of maize to the poultry sector at subsidized rates, the prices of maize are increasing relentlessly. Maize prices have risen to all time high all across the country. The average price during the mid week was Rs.7402.5 per MT at the market yard, about 6% higher than last week’s Rs.6982 and 8% over last year’s Rs.6854 per MT. In the last one month the prices at the market yard have gone from Rs.6257 to the current levels, an increase of 18.3% which has not been recorded any time. The poultry sector which provides self employment opportunities to many rural youth stands on the crossroads today due to such price increase on the basic raw material which is needed to feed the birds for meat or egg production.
Grain Sorghum (Jowar) average prices have increased from Rs.7415.6 per MT last week to Rs.8206.2 per MT, an increase of 10.66%. The prices are higher by 9.44% over last year’s Rs.7498 per MT. The prices are higher by approximately 14% over last month’s Rs.7194 per MT at the market yard.
Barley prices are also up from Rs.6980.5 per MT last week to Rs.7834.9 per MT, an increase of 12.22%. The price one month ago, first week of Aug were ruling at Rs.Rs.6987.4 per MT at the market yard, an increase of 12.12%. Over thel last year, the prices are higher by 9.44%. In the US 93% of the crop has been harvested.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) is the probably the only commodity whose prices have come down over last week’s Rs.6941 per MT to Rs.6831 per MT this week, a decrease of 1.5%. The prices are also down from last year’s Rs.7038 per MT by 2.9%, but are higher by 6.6% over last month’s Rs.6407 per MT.
This is the fourth consecutive week, when commodity prices have shown an upward trend, especially maize which is the basic raw material for the poultry and the starch sector. Since the first week of April 2006, when the average price of maize at the market yard was Rs.5810.4 per MT, the prices have increased by 27.7%. The prices are higher than the Minimum Support Price announced by GOI by 37% and all this benefit of high price does not accrue to the maize farmer.
Corn prices at CBOT were $91.15 and $96.82 per MT for Sept and December Delivery. The FOB Gulf prices for the months of October and Dec were $123.62 & $124.40 per MT respectively.
What is the world doing to learn about Avian Influenza? (taken from various sources)
In order the gather all the information about the way the Avian Influenza spreads, FAO has joined hands with U S Geological Survey (USGS), Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and Mongolian Academy of Sciences (MAS) in one of its kind surveillance project, The project, part of the Wild Bird Global Avian Influenza Network for Surveillance (GAINS) programme funded by USAID will aim to attach GPS transmitters to wild whooper swans in an effort to track the birds to their wintering grounds.
The unique study will shed light on how wild birds may be involved in the spread of avian influenza and provide information on migration routes and inform governments about potential threats from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
The whooper swan locations are being updated twice weekly on the website:
http://www.werc.usgs.gov/sattrack/
The website also includes access to the data in Google Earth format. A comprehensive database of information on international wild bird avian influenza surveillance and migratory bird activity is available on the WCS website at http://www.gains.org.
While in Mongolia, Satellites help scientists track AI, in Thailand, the Department of Livestock Development has plans to use Radio frequency identification (RFID) system to ensure the world about the systems in place in Thailand. The pilot project will be on 25 poultry farms to start with and is budgeted at about $2 million. The RFID system will help convince the export market that the Thai companies have high standards and there is traceability system in place. The Thailand's animal identification system is expected to comply with the International Committee for Animal Recording (ICAR) and once the RFID implementation is complete, the consumers can be encouraged to choose the certified food products
Until now, Latin America, which is the home to a largest portion of the world’s broiler population has been free of Avian Influenza, which spread in Asia in 2003 and also spread to other regions of the world including Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
FAO in order to create awareness about the disease, its spread and also to keep it out of Latin America and the Caribbean has published a new handbook targeted especially to the region's small-scale poultry farmers.
Guide to the prevention and control of avian flu in small-scale poultry farming in Latin America and the Caribbean, is available on the net in Spanish and stresses the measures needed to ensure on-farm bio-security and prevent contact between domestic poultry and potentially infected wild birds.
The information contained in the book is specifically designed to meet the needs of small-scale and farmyard poultry production units and the handbook stresses simple and affordable methods to prevent and control the disease.
Flies are responsible for the spread of Campylobacter
In New Zealand, experts and Medical investigators have blamed the recent increase in the incidence of Campylobacter-infected chicken on flies. They have also said that flies and cattle close to cities or in area are responsible for the Campylobacter contamination in Chicken. Does it sound familiar? In India, Live chicken shops in Delhi, Bombay or any other metro, cattle roaming the streets, Gazipur Milk Colony close to Gazipur Poultry Market on National Highway 24.
The investigators have concluded that the sporadic nature of Campylobacter illnesses and the seasonal pattern of infection, which peaks in warmer months, indicate that chicken meat itself was not the major source of infection. The flies were the link between environmental sources of Campylobacter and food. In New Zealand, the primary source of infection is thought to be the faeces of dairy and beef cattle. It was the proximity to rural environments that allowed flies to transmit the bacteria to food, particularly during the warmer months when they are most active.
The Campylobacter bacteria is transferred through fly faecal deposits on common surfaces such as hand rails and door handles. Campylobacter deposited on fingertips can survive for at least one hour, and have been recovered from dry surfaces 24 hours after being deposited.
In August a study conducted at Otago University, suggested that 90 percent of fresh chicken sold was contaminated with Campylobacter.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 09, 2006
Even after the release of 350,000 tons of maize to the poultry sector at subsidized rates, the prices of maize are increasing relentlessly. Maize prices have risen to all time high all across the country. The average price during the mid week was Rs.7402.5 per MT at the market yard, about 6% higher than last week’s Rs.6982 and 8% over last year’s Rs.6854 per MT. In the last one month the prices at the market yard have gone from Rs.6257 to the current levels, an increase of 18.3% which has not been recorded any time. The poultry sector which provides self employment opportunities to many rural youth stands on the crossroads today due to such price increase on the basic raw material which is needed to feed the birds for meat or egg production.
Grain Sorghum (Jowar) average prices have increased from Rs.7415.6 per MT last week to Rs.8206.2 per MT, an increase of 10.66%. The prices are higher by 9.44% over last year’s Rs.7498 per MT. The prices are higher by approximately 14% over last month’s Rs.7194 per MT at the market yard.
Barley prices are also up from Rs.6980.5 per MT last week to Rs.7834.9 per MT, an increase of 12.22%. The price one month ago, first week of Aug were ruling at Rs.Rs.6987.4 per MT at the market yard, an increase of 12.12%. Over thel last year, the prices are higher by 9.44%. In the US 93% of the crop has been harvested.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) is the probably the only commodity whose prices have come down over last week’s Rs.6941 per MT to Rs.6831 per MT this week, a decrease of 1.5%. The prices are also down from last year’s Rs.7038 per MT by 2.9%, but are higher by 6.6% over last month’s Rs.6407 per MT.
This is the fourth consecutive week, when commodity prices have shown an upward trend, especially maize which is the basic raw material for the poultry and the starch sector. Since the first week of April 2006, when the average price of maize at the market yard was Rs.5810.4 per MT, the prices have increased by 27.7%. The prices are higher than the Minimum Support Price announced by GOI by 37% and all this benefit of high price does not accrue to the maize farmer.
Corn prices at CBOT were $91.15 and $96.82 per MT for Sept and December Delivery. The FOB Gulf prices for the months of October and Dec were $123.62 & $124.40 per MT respectively.
What is the world doing to learn about Avian Influenza? (taken from various sources)
In order the gather all the information about the way the Avian Influenza spreads, FAO has joined hands with U S Geological Survey (USGS), Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and Mongolian Academy of Sciences (MAS) in one of its kind surveillance project, The project, part of the Wild Bird Global Avian Influenza Network for Surveillance (GAINS) programme funded by USAID will aim to attach GPS transmitters to wild whooper swans in an effort to track the birds to their wintering grounds.
The unique study will shed light on how wild birds may be involved in the spread of avian influenza and provide information on migration routes and inform governments about potential threats from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
The whooper swan locations are being updated twice weekly on the website:
http://www.werc.usgs.gov/sattrack/
The website also includes access to the data in Google Earth format. A comprehensive database of information on international wild bird avian influenza surveillance and migratory bird activity is available on the WCS website at http://www.gains.org.
While in Mongolia, Satellites help scientists track AI, in Thailand, the Department of Livestock Development has plans to use Radio frequency identification (RFID) system to ensure the world about the systems in place in Thailand. The pilot project will be on 25 poultry farms to start with and is budgeted at about $2 million. The RFID system will help convince the export market that the Thai companies have high standards and there is traceability system in place. The Thailand's animal identification system is expected to comply with the International Committee for Animal Recording (ICAR) and once the RFID implementation is complete, the consumers can be encouraged to choose the certified food products
Until now, Latin America, which is the home to a largest portion of the world’s broiler population has been free of Avian Influenza, which spread in Asia in 2003 and also spread to other regions of the world including Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
FAO in order to create awareness about the disease, its spread and also to keep it out of Latin America and the Caribbean has published a new handbook targeted especially to the region's small-scale poultry farmers.
Guide to the prevention and control of avian flu in small-scale poultry farming in Latin America and the Caribbean, is available on the net in Spanish and stresses the measures needed to ensure on-farm bio-security and prevent contact between domestic poultry and potentially infected wild birds.
The information contained in the book is specifically designed to meet the needs of small-scale and farmyard poultry production units and the handbook stresses simple and affordable methods to prevent and control the disease.
Flies are responsible for the spread of Campylobacter
In New Zealand, experts and Medical investigators have blamed the recent increase in the incidence of Campylobacter-infected chicken on flies. They have also said that flies and cattle close to cities or in area are responsible for the Campylobacter contamination in Chicken. Does it sound familiar? In India, Live chicken shops in Delhi, Bombay or any other metro, cattle roaming the streets, Gazipur Milk Colony close to Gazipur Poultry Market on National Highway 24.
The investigators have concluded that the sporadic nature of Campylobacter illnesses and the seasonal pattern of infection, which peaks in warmer months, indicate that chicken meat itself was not the major source of infection. The flies were the link between environmental sources of Campylobacter and food. In New Zealand, the primary source of infection is thought to be the faeces of dairy and beef cattle. It was the proximity to rural environments that allowed flies to transmit the bacteria to food, particularly during the warmer months when they are most active.
The Campylobacter bacteria is transferred through fly faecal deposits on common surfaces such as hand rails and door handles. Campylobacter deposited on fingertips can survive for at least one hour, and have been recovered from dry surfaces 24 hours after being deposited.
In August a study conducted at Otago University, suggested that 90 percent of fresh chicken sold was contaminated with Campylobacter.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 09, 2006
Saturday, September 02, 2006
Maize Prices remain high; The ethanol debate; USDA report on the Future of Agricultural Biotechnology
Maize Prices remain high
The maize prices have remained on an upswing for third week in a row. The average price of maize at the market yard was Rs.6990 ($151.8) per MT, slightly higher than last week’s Rs.6960 ($151.3) per MT. The price is also higher than last year’s price by approximately 13.42%. In the history the prices of maize have not gone up to this level and not have the end user sectors have been in such a crisis before. The overall growth of the poultry sector is affected due to the bird flu episode and now the high ingredient price of feed ingredients, particularly maize and its non availability.
Average Sorghum prices have also shot up from last week’s Rs.6860 ($149) to Rs.7790 ($169.31) per MT and increase of 13.36%. The prices are also higher than last year’s price by 13.3%. Average Sorghum prices are still higher than maize by 6.4%, which is still limiting its use in poultry rations.
Pearl Millet (Bajra), prices increased from Rs.6540 ($142.1) to Rs.6940 ($150.91) per MT, an increase of 6.2% over last week. The prices are also higher than last year by 7%, but are lower than maize by 0.4%.
Prices of Barley are the once one’s that have come down from last week’s Rs.7240 ($157.4) to Rs.6980 ($151.75) per MT, a reduction of 3.6%. The prices though are still higher than last year’s price at the same time by 8%.
In the current scenario when availability of the basic raw material for poultry and starch mills is very poor and prices high, it will have a cascading affect on the value added products and the industries that use these products. Specifically paper, food, packaging, textiles, candy, pharma and healthcare which use products from the starch sector are likely to get affected.
Profarm, a US consulting company has estimated the US crop at 275 MMT, with an average productivity if 3.84 tons/acre, while USDA estimates the crop to be 278 MMT, with an average productivity of 3.86 tons/acre. These are still estimates and within the next 30 days a much clear picture of the production will emerge as the harvest starts.
In China the production of maize for the year 2006 estimated at 142 MMT and the demand is expected to be about 135 MMT. This is based on estimates of the growth of the industrial sector at 30% and poultry sector at 4%.
China, which is currently importing maize from US, may not be in the market for export of maize in years to come, due to the increased demand.
Prices in US are slightly up, and CBOT closed at $90.52 per MT for September delivery. December delivery was also slightly up from last week to $96.66 per MT. The FOB value of Corn from US Gulf has gone up to $120 per MT for September delivery, $123.10 per MT for October delivery and $123.90 per MT for December delivery. The ocean freight rates at the moment are also running very high.
The ethanol debate
The amount of U.S. maize utilized in ethanol has more than doubled in the past five years, rising from 17.2 MMT in 2001 to 36.32 MMT in 2005. The ethanol industry processed a record 13% of the domestic maize crop last year, which in 2006 is likely to increase to 40 MMT. In terms of the usage it ranks behind only feed/industrial (55%) and exports (17%).
The reason for US going ahead with the ethanol in a big way is mainly to reduce its dependence on foreign crude oil. The numbers are surely going to be higher in the next couple of years as more plants come online.
A study by the researchers from the University of Minnesota describes maize ethanol as a "first generation" bio-fuel that produces about 25% more energy than is needed to grow the crops and turn them into biofuels. The study is more favorable toward maize ethanol than several previous studies, which claim that it takes more energy to produce maize ethanol than the energy it provides. But researchers in the University of Minnesota study maintain that maize ethanol has its limitations, noting that if every acre of maize in the U.S. was earmarked for ethanol production, it would still only supply about 12% of U.S. motoring fuel.
Although more than 60% of the world’s ethanol is currently made from sugar, and cellulose is being touted as the future of the industry, experts say demand for grain-based ethanol will continue to grow.
The rapidly growing U.S. fuel ethanol industry has the capacity to distill 4.8 billion gallons (18.6 billion liters) of the motor fuel this year, mostly from corn (maize). Federal law sets a target of using 7.5 billion gallons (28.4 billion liters) of renewable fuels annually by 2012.
The biotech advisory group to USDA in its report has stated that in near future crops with energy-specific traits may be developed to help meet the growing demands for renewable alternative fuels.
It said genetic engineering could be used to add traits to food crops, such as corn and soybeans, and nonfood crops, like grasses and trees, to enhance energy production. In addition the bioenergy uses of the transgenic crops will be beneficial to the consumers on a large scale and the benefits will be visible.
USDA report on the Future of Agricultural Biotechnology
A report entitled "Opportunities and Challenges in Agricultural Biotechnology: The Decade Ahead" prepared by USDA's Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture (AC21) was out this week.
The new varieties were intended to provide increased productivity, profitability, and improved environmental management (e.g., reduced pesticide use and expanded conservation tillage). Most of the new varieties were developed to be incorporated into existing undifferentiated commodities.
In the United States, these transgenic varieties are largely undifferentiated and fully integrated into commodity markets. In 2005, 52% of corn, 87% of soybeans, and 79% of cotton planted in the United States was genetically engineered, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service. As per ISAAA statistics, in addition to the above, in 2005 transgenic crops were planted globally on about 222 million acres, roughly 5.8% of the estimated 3.8 billion acres devoted to crops. The report cites that the transgenic varieties thus far in the marketplace have been beneficial to farmers and the environment, but have not provided marketing advantages to food retailers or improved nutrition or taste to attract consumers.
The report also discusses the future and say’s that it is impossible to predict exactly which new modern biotechnology-derived plants or animals will be ready for the marketplace over the next decade. Some possibilities that have been cites in the report are:
• Genetically engineered plant varieties that provide improved human nutrition (e.g., soybeans enriched in omega-3 fatty acids)
• Products designed for use in improved animal feeds (providing better nutritional balance by increasing the concentration of essential amino acids often deficient in some feed components, increased nutrient density, or more efficient utilization of nutrients such as phosphate that could provide environmental benefits)
• Crops resistant to drought and other environmental stresses such as salinity
• Crops resistant to pests and diseases (e.g., fusarium-resistant wheat; chestnut-blight resistant chestnut; plum pox resistance in stone fruit; various insect resistant crops)
• Additional crops containing a number of transgenic traits incorporated in the same plant (stacked traits)
• Crops engineered to produce pharmaceuticals, such as vaccines and antibodies
• Crops engineered for particular industrial uses (e.g., crops having improved processing attributes such as increased starch content, producing useful enzymes that can be extracted for downstream industrial processes, or modified to have higher content of an energy-rich starting material such as oil for improved utilization as biofuel)
• Transgenic animals for food, or for production of pharmaceuticals or industrial products (e.g., transgenic salmon engineered for increased growth rate to maturity, transgenic goats producing human serum factors in their milk, and pigs producing the enzyme phytase in their saliva for improved nutrient utilization and manure with reduced phosphorus content).
The report is also critical of the fact that though the new technology offers scope and safe, it requires countries to enact regulations to manage the products. Lack of information at times would lead to a situation which will hamper some countries and its farmers and people to reap the benefits of the technology.
The report also points the fact that the “first-generation” transgenic products developed in the United States have now been adopted by farmers in other nations, including developing nations; and the new transgenic plant varieties intended for food use over the next few years are likely emerge from the developing world, from countries like China and India. For example, if transgenic rice varieties (probably insect-resistant varieties) that have been developed or are being developed are commercialized, this could have a significant impact on the global genetic engineering debate because large populations of humans will be consuming a staple transgenic whole food.
The report can be found on the web on USDA site. You may follow the link to given below.
http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_1OB?contentidonly=true&contentid=AC21Reports.xml">http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_1OB?contentidonly=true&contentid=AC21Reports.xml">http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_1OB?contentidonly=true&contentid=AC21Reports.xml
Thinking more about this, most people are looking for healthy foods, and it may just be possible that the technology will allow scientists to make food products and our favourite fatty food, which we would have without guilt; or if people don’t like broccoli, it may be possible to extract its cancer fighting nutrients and put them in an APPLE.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 02, 2006
The maize prices have remained on an upswing for third week in a row. The average price of maize at the market yard was Rs.6990 ($151.8) per MT, slightly higher than last week’s Rs.6960 ($151.3) per MT. The price is also higher than last year’s price by approximately 13.42%. In the history the prices of maize have not gone up to this level and not have the end user sectors have been in such a crisis before. The overall growth of the poultry sector is affected due to the bird flu episode and now the high ingredient price of feed ingredients, particularly maize and its non availability.
Average Sorghum prices have also shot up from last week’s Rs.6860 ($149) to Rs.7790 ($169.31) per MT and increase of 13.36%. The prices are also higher than last year’s price by 13.3%. Average Sorghum prices are still higher than maize by 6.4%, which is still limiting its use in poultry rations.
Pearl Millet (Bajra), prices increased from Rs.6540 ($142.1) to Rs.6940 ($150.91) per MT, an increase of 6.2% over last week. The prices are also higher than last year by 7%, but are lower than maize by 0.4%.
Prices of Barley are the once one’s that have come down from last week’s Rs.7240 ($157.4) to Rs.6980 ($151.75) per MT, a reduction of 3.6%. The prices though are still higher than last year’s price at the same time by 8%.
In the current scenario when availability of the basic raw material for poultry and starch mills is very poor and prices high, it will have a cascading affect on the value added products and the industries that use these products. Specifically paper, food, packaging, textiles, candy, pharma and healthcare which use products from the starch sector are likely to get affected.
Profarm, a US consulting company has estimated the US crop at 275 MMT, with an average productivity if 3.84 tons/acre, while USDA estimates the crop to be 278 MMT, with an average productivity of 3.86 tons/acre. These are still estimates and within the next 30 days a much clear picture of the production will emerge as the harvest starts.
In China the production of maize for the year 2006 estimated at 142 MMT and the demand is expected to be about 135 MMT. This is based on estimates of the growth of the industrial sector at 30% and poultry sector at 4%.
China, which is currently importing maize from US, may not be in the market for export of maize in years to come, due to the increased demand.
Prices in US are slightly up, and CBOT closed at $90.52 per MT for September delivery. December delivery was also slightly up from last week to $96.66 per MT. The FOB value of Corn from US Gulf has gone up to $120 per MT for September delivery, $123.10 per MT for October delivery and $123.90 per MT for December delivery. The ocean freight rates at the moment are also running very high.
The ethanol debate
The amount of U.S. maize utilized in ethanol has more than doubled in the past five years, rising from 17.2 MMT in 2001 to 36.32 MMT in 2005. The ethanol industry processed a record 13% of the domestic maize crop last year, which in 2006 is likely to increase to 40 MMT. In terms of the usage it ranks behind only feed/industrial (55%) and exports (17%).
The reason for US going ahead with the ethanol in a big way is mainly to reduce its dependence on foreign crude oil. The numbers are surely going to be higher in the next couple of years as more plants come online.
A study by the researchers from the University of Minnesota describes maize ethanol as a "first generation" bio-fuel that produces about 25% more energy than is needed to grow the crops and turn them into biofuels. The study is more favorable toward maize ethanol than several previous studies, which claim that it takes more energy to produce maize ethanol than the energy it provides. But researchers in the University of Minnesota study maintain that maize ethanol has its limitations, noting that if every acre of maize in the U.S. was earmarked for ethanol production, it would still only supply about 12% of U.S. motoring fuel.
Although more than 60% of the world’s ethanol is currently made from sugar, and cellulose is being touted as the future of the industry, experts say demand for grain-based ethanol will continue to grow.
The rapidly growing U.S. fuel ethanol industry has the capacity to distill 4.8 billion gallons (18.6 billion liters) of the motor fuel this year, mostly from corn (maize). Federal law sets a target of using 7.5 billion gallons (28.4 billion liters) of renewable fuels annually by 2012.
The biotech advisory group to USDA in its report has stated that in near future crops with energy-specific traits may be developed to help meet the growing demands for renewable alternative fuels.
It said genetic engineering could be used to add traits to food crops, such as corn and soybeans, and nonfood crops, like grasses and trees, to enhance energy production. In addition the bioenergy uses of the transgenic crops will be beneficial to the consumers on a large scale and the benefits will be visible.
USDA report on the Future of Agricultural Biotechnology
A report entitled "Opportunities and Challenges in Agricultural Biotechnology: The Decade Ahead" prepared by USDA's Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture (AC21) was out this week.
The new varieties were intended to provide increased productivity, profitability, and improved environmental management (e.g., reduced pesticide use and expanded conservation tillage). Most of the new varieties were developed to be incorporated into existing undifferentiated commodities.
In the United States, these transgenic varieties are largely undifferentiated and fully integrated into commodity markets. In 2005, 52% of corn, 87% of soybeans, and 79% of cotton planted in the United States was genetically engineered, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service. As per ISAAA statistics, in addition to the above, in 2005 transgenic crops were planted globally on about 222 million acres, roughly 5.8% of the estimated 3.8 billion acres devoted to crops. The report cites that the transgenic varieties thus far in the marketplace have been beneficial to farmers and the environment, but have not provided marketing advantages to food retailers or improved nutrition or taste to attract consumers.
The report also discusses the future and say’s that it is impossible to predict exactly which new modern biotechnology-derived plants or animals will be ready for the marketplace over the next decade. Some possibilities that have been cites in the report are:
• Genetically engineered plant varieties that provide improved human nutrition (e.g., soybeans enriched in omega-3 fatty acids)
• Products designed for use in improved animal feeds (providing better nutritional balance by increasing the concentration of essential amino acids often deficient in some feed components, increased nutrient density, or more efficient utilization of nutrients such as phosphate that could provide environmental benefits)
• Crops resistant to drought and other environmental stresses such as salinity
• Crops resistant to pests and diseases (e.g., fusarium-resistant wheat; chestnut-blight resistant chestnut; plum pox resistance in stone fruit; various insect resistant crops)
• Additional crops containing a number of transgenic traits incorporated in the same plant (stacked traits)
• Crops engineered to produce pharmaceuticals, such as vaccines and antibodies
• Crops engineered for particular industrial uses (e.g., crops having improved processing attributes such as increased starch content, producing useful enzymes that can be extracted for downstream industrial processes, or modified to have higher content of an energy-rich starting material such as oil for improved utilization as biofuel)
• Transgenic animals for food, or for production of pharmaceuticals or industrial products (e.g., transgenic salmon engineered for increased growth rate to maturity, transgenic goats producing human serum factors in their milk, and pigs producing the enzyme phytase in their saliva for improved nutrient utilization and manure with reduced phosphorus content).
The report is also critical of the fact that though the new technology offers scope and safe, it requires countries to enact regulations to manage the products. Lack of information at times would lead to a situation which will hamper some countries and its farmers and people to reap the benefits of the technology.
The report also points the fact that the “first-generation” transgenic products developed in the United States have now been adopted by farmers in other nations, including developing nations; and the new transgenic plant varieties intended for food use over the next few years are likely emerge from the developing world, from countries like China and India. For example, if transgenic rice varieties (probably insect-resistant varieties) that have been developed or are being developed are commercialized, this could have a significant impact on the global genetic engineering debate because large populations of humans will be consuming a staple transgenic whole food.
The report can be found on the web on USDA site. You may follow the link to given below.
http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_1OB?contentidonly=true&contentid=AC21Reports.xml">http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_1OB?contentidonly=true&contentid=AC21Reports.xml">http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_1OB?contentidonly=true&contentid=AC21Reports.xml
Thinking more about this, most people are looking for healthy foods, and it may just be possible that the technology will allow scientists to make food products and our favourite fatty food, which we would have without guilt; or if people don’t like broccoli, it may be possible to extract its cancer fighting nutrients and put them in an APPLE.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 02, 2006
Wednesday, August 30, 2006
Maize Prices skyrocket
Maize Prices skyrocket
This week the prices of maize in the Indian market notched another high reaching an average price of Rs.6960 ($151.3) per MT. The delivered price of maize in Sangli (South Maharashtra) was Rs.9800 ($213) per MT, making it impossible for the poultry farmers to use maize in the poultry rations. The increase in the market yard price is about 5.2% in one week. The price is also higher than last year’s price of $133.5 by 13.34%.
In the current situation, when the Indian subcontinent is under severe drought in some parts and floods in some other parts, it has been difficult to assess the maize production. The new crop is likely to arrive in mid Oct 2006, which is still 45 days away.
Though the GOI has notified release of another 350,000 tons of maize from its go-downs, it will be difficult to bridge the gap between supply and demand. GOI has also stated that it is not averse to look at need based imports as it is doing for wheat.
In the recently concluded 48th National Symposium of CLFMA of India, the GOI officials present the discussions were appraised of the current maize situation and the hardships being faced by them due to the price increase. On one side the cost of production of chicken (live) is up to Rs.30 – 32 per kg, the sale price of live chicken in the market has come down drastically and the farmers are forced in sell chicken at a low price of Rs.17 – 24 at various locations, thus incurring a loss of Rs.8-15 per kg.
The CBOT on last Friday, Aug 25, closed a little higher than last week, with Sept corn at $88.56 per MT over last week’s $86.19, an increase of $2.37 per MT. Dec corn also closed higher by $2.36 per MT at $95.15 per MT.
The FOB values of corn at US Gulf are reported at $118.10 per MT for Sept Delivery, $121.95 per MT for Oct, $122.35 for MT for Nov and $123.15 for December 2006 deliveries.
It may still be possible to for Indian end users to import maize, but it might not be a very low price, but at least maize will be available to run the starch mills and feed the birds in animals in states which have high usage of maize and also have ports, like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Without the duty of 15%, it may be possible to deliver corn at the port (CNF) at $168 (Rs.7900) per MT, which with the duty will be $193 (Rs.9070) per MT. Added cost of clearance, delivery would be an additional Rs.1200 per ton. It may just be possible to make maize available to the end users at a price lower than the current delivered price.
Market reports indicate that consumers and end users are finding it difficult to source value added products like Malto-dextrin, Dextrose, Glucose etc, as the production of these is affected, as the companies have reduced their capacity utilization to be at a bare minimum and run the plants. The prices of these products are also on the rise and will definitely affect the end users bottom line and eventually the consumers. It is high time GOI considers import of maize to stem the price increase as has been done with the wheat.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Aug 30, 2006
This week the prices of maize in the Indian market notched another high reaching an average price of Rs.6960 ($151.3) per MT. The delivered price of maize in Sangli (South Maharashtra) was Rs.9800 ($213) per MT, making it impossible for the poultry farmers to use maize in the poultry rations. The increase in the market yard price is about 5.2% in one week. The price is also higher than last year’s price of $133.5 by 13.34%.
In the current situation, when the Indian subcontinent is under severe drought in some parts and floods in some other parts, it has been difficult to assess the maize production. The new crop is likely to arrive in mid Oct 2006, which is still 45 days away.
Though the GOI has notified release of another 350,000 tons of maize from its go-downs, it will be difficult to bridge the gap between supply and demand. GOI has also stated that it is not averse to look at need based imports as it is doing for wheat.
In the recently concluded 48th National Symposium of CLFMA of India, the GOI officials present the discussions were appraised of the current maize situation and the hardships being faced by them due to the price increase. On one side the cost of production of chicken (live) is up to Rs.30 – 32 per kg, the sale price of live chicken in the market has come down drastically and the farmers are forced in sell chicken at a low price of Rs.17 – 24 at various locations, thus incurring a loss of Rs.8-15 per kg.
The CBOT on last Friday, Aug 25, closed a little higher than last week, with Sept corn at $88.56 per MT over last week’s $86.19, an increase of $2.37 per MT. Dec corn also closed higher by $2.36 per MT at $95.15 per MT.
The FOB values of corn at US Gulf are reported at $118.10 per MT for Sept Delivery, $121.95 per MT for Oct, $122.35 for MT for Nov and $123.15 for December 2006 deliveries.
It may still be possible to for Indian end users to import maize, but it might not be a very low price, but at least maize will be available to run the starch mills and feed the birds in animals in states which have high usage of maize and also have ports, like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Without the duty of 15%, it may be possible to deliver corn at the port (CNF) at $168 (Rs.7900) per MT, which with the duty will be $193 (Rs.9070) per MT. Added cost of clearance, delivery would be an additional Rs.1200 per ton. It may just be possible to make maize available to the end users at a price lower than the current delivered price.
Market reports indicate that consumers and end users are finding it difficult to source value added products like Malto-dextrin, Dextrose, Glucose etc, as the production of these is affected, as the companies have reduced their capacity utilization to be at a bare minimum and run the plants. The prices of these products are also on the rise and will definitely affect the end users bottom line and eventually the consumers. It is high time GOI considers import of maize to stem the price increase as has been done with the wheat.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Aug 30, 2006
Sunday, August 20, 2006
Maize Prices unaffordable; New uses of Biotech Maize
Maize Prices unaffordable
The price of maize this week reached a highest level of Rs.6614 ($143.8) per MT, up from last week’s Rs.6350 ($138.1) per MT, an increase of 4.1%. In the last two weeks the price of maize in the local market has gone up from Rs.6237 ($135.6) to Rs.6614 ($143.8) per MT. The delivered prices in parts of Maharashtra touched a all time of high of Rs.8800 ($191) to Rs.9000 ($195) per MT, making the usage of corn unaffordable in the poultry rations. The price of maize in the market yard is also higher than last year by 13.5%. Last year the price of maize at this time of the year was Rs.5825 ($126.6) per MT.
Reports also indicate that the price of Bajra (Pearl Millet) in the local markets has gone up from Rs.6040 ($131.4) to Rs.7160 ($155.71) per MT, an increase of 18.5%. The price of Bajra is still higher than maize by 8.3% and last week the price of Bajra was lower than maize by 4.8%.
Sorghum prices on the other hand have come down from last week’s Rs.7400 ($161) to Rs.7100 ($154.28) per MT at the market yard, a drop of 4.17%. The price though is higher than last year’s Rs.6900 ($150) per MT. Even though the price of Sorghum has come down in the market yard, it is still higher than maize price in the market yard by 7.3%, making corn the best choice for the poultry rations.
Barley prices this week gained almost Rs.920 ($20) per MT reaching a high of Rs.7790 ($169.39) per MT at the market yard, an increase of 13.3%. The prices are also higher than last year’s prices by almost 17.14%.
With such high commodity prices, it is getting difficult for the end users to use these commodities for poultry or starch manufacturer.
With the current drop in prices of broilers and increase in cost of production due to increase in ingredient prices, it is likely that few of the farmers will close shop. With in the starch sector there is a possibility of increase in prices of starch and its value added products like dextrose etc which will be reflected in price increase of other products as well like processed foods, paper where starch is used and also health care products where dextrose and starch is used.
Maize may not be so much of direct use as wheat for human consumption, but it surely feeds the chickens and is the base stock for many industries, which in turn provides employment opportunities to many Indian people. A short supply of a particular commodity and its high prices will surely get reflected in the overall growth of the country.
While the prices in India may be increasing, prices in US at CBOT have shown a decline in the last two weeks. This week, CBOT closed at $86.43, lower than the previous week’s $87.53 per MT for September delivery. December corn was also down from $95.90 to $92.73 per MT.
While the demand for cereals in on the rise, a report by Rabo Bank projects an increase in us of Vegetable oil by 27% over a 5 year period (2006-2010). The reason for this increase will be due t o increase in world population and income, which will account for a 14% rise in use. The 13% rise will be due to the increased use of vegetable oil to manufacture biofuels.
The report also cited that the highest population and economic growth in the last 10 years has happened in India and China.
New uses of Biotech Maize
As the acceptance of crops derived from biotechnology is increasing, new uses of the technology are being found. While there are reports than vaccines can be administered to children via a GM Banana and Tomatoes can be modified to have increase Lycopene, required to fight cancer, Mexican researchers have proved that GM maize that has New Castle Vaccine.
A report published in Transgenic Research, indicates that the researchers of Center for Research and Advanced Studies (CINVESTAV) in Guanajuato, Mexico inserted a gene from the Newcastle disease virus into maize DNA. The chicken that were fed on the altered/modified maize produced antibodies against the virus. The maize provided a level of protection against infection comparable to that of commercial vaccines.
New Castle disease is an important disease of Poultry and effects millions of poultry birds worldwide. Though commercial vaccines are available, outbreaks are known to occur and there are times when booster doses of the vaccine have to be given at regular intervals. Providing the vaccine through Genetically Modified maize will help fight the disease and reduce losses due to morbidity and mortality.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Aug 19, 2006
The price of maize this week reached a highest level of Rs.6614 ($143.8) per MT, up from last week’s Rs.6350 ($138.1) per MT, an increase of 4.1%. In the last two weeks the price of maize in the local market has gone up from Rs.6237 ($135.6) to Rs.6614 ($143.8) per MT. The delivered prices in parts of Maharashtra touched a all time of high of Rs.8800 ($191) to Rs.9000 ($195) per MT, making the usage of corn unaffordable in the poultry rations. The price of maize in the market yard is also higher than last year by 13.5%. Last year the price of maize at this time of the year was Rs.5825 ($126.6) per MT.
Reports also indicate that the price of Bajra (Pearl Millet) in the local markets has gone up from Rs.6040 ($131.4) to Rs.7160 ($155.71) per MT, an increase of 18.5%. The price of Bajra is still higher than maize by 8.3% and last week the price of Bajra was lower than maize by 4.8%.
Sorghum prices on the other hand have come down from last week’s Rs.7400 ($161) to Rs.7100 ($154.28) per MT at the market yard, a drop of 4.17%. The price though is higher than last year’s Rs.6900 ($150) per MT. Even though the price of Sorghum has come down in the market yard, it is still higher than maize price in the market yard by 7.3%, making corn the best choice for the poultry rations.
Barley prices this week gained almost Rs.920 ($20) per MT reaching a high of Rs.7790 ($169.39) per MT at the market yard, an increase of 13.3%. The prices are also higher than last year’s prices by almost 17.14%.
With such high commodity prices, it is getting difficult for the end users to use these commodities for poultry or starch manufacturer.
With the current drop in prices of broilers and increase in cost of production due to increase in ingredient prices, it is likely that few of the farmers will close shop. With in the starch sector there is a possibility of increase in prices of starch and its value added products like dextrose etc which will be reflected in price increase of other products as well like processed foods, paper where starch is used and also health care products where dextrose and starch is used.
Maize may not be so much of direct use as wheat for human consumption, but it surely feeds the chickens and is the base stock for many industries, which in turn provides employment opportunities to many Indian people. A short supply of a particular commodity and its high prices will surely get reflected in the overall growth of the country.
While the prices in India may be increasing, prices in US at CBOT have shown a decline in the last two weeks. This week, CBOT closed at $86.43, lower than the previous week’s $87.53 per MT for September delivery. December corn was also down from $95.90 to $92.73 per MT.
While the demand for cereals in on the rise, a report by Rabo Bank projects an increase in us of Vegetable oil by 27% over a 5 year period (2006-2010). The reason for this increase will be due t o increase in world population and income, which will account for a 14% rise in use. The 13% rise will be due to the increased use of vegetable oil to manufacture biofuels.
The report also cited that the highest population and economic growth in the last 10 years has happened in India and China.
New uses of Biotech Maize
As the acceptance of crops derived from biotechnology is increasing, new uses of the technology are being found. While there are reports than vaccines can be administered to children via a GM Banana and Tomatoes can be modified to have increase Lycopene, required to fight cancer, Mexican researchers have proved that GM maize that has New Castle Vaccine.
A report published in Transgenic Research, indicates that the researchers of Center for Research and Advanced Studies (CINVESTAV) in Guanajuato, Mexico inserted a gene from the Newcastle disease virus into maize DNA. The chicken that were fed on the altered/modified maize produced antibodies against the virus. The maize provided a level of protection against infection comparable to that of commercial vaccines.
New Castle disease is an important disease of Poultry and effects millions of poultry birds worldwide. Though commercial vaccines are available, outbreaks are known to occur and there are times when booster doses of the vaccine have to be given at regular intervals. Providing the vaccine through Genetically Modified maize will help fight the disease and reduce losses due to morbidity and mortality.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Aug 19, 2006
Monday, August 14, 2006
Maize Prices up on slow deliveries and high demand; India free of Bird Flu
Maize Prices up on slow deliveries and high demand
Average maize prices in India suddenly shot up from last weeks Rs.6240 ($135.6) per MT to Rs.6350 ($138) per MT. The prices are likley to go up further as the most of the routes to production centres are cut of due to heavy rains in Central India in the last few days. Rains have also caused havoc in parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa.
Prices of maize in major consumption and production centres like Andhra Pradesh are up from $ 122 to $ 130, Gujarat from $ 150 to $154, Karnataka $ 123 to $ 134, Tamil Nadu $ 135 to $ 137, Uttar Pradesh $ 135 to $ 141 (All prices at market yard in respective states). With less availability and higher prices, it is getting more and difficult for the end users to use corn and keep profit margins.
Prices of Pearl Millet slid down after a long time from $139.3 to $131.4 per MT, but it is still not feasible to use the grain against corn as the prices only 5% lower than corn.
Prices of Sorghum are again up from last weeks $156.4 to $161 per MT and are higher than last years price of $153.7 per MT at the same time. The prices are higher than maize by 15% and does not warrant a change in the poultry rations.
Barley prices are also showing a down trend and were at $149.5 per MT by the end of the week, lower than last week by almost $2.5 Per MT.
Prices in US on the other hand have softened and CBOT closed at $88.4 per MT for September delivery, much lower than last weeks close of $96.43. This is probably due to the new estimates from USDA on corn production, which is now estimated at 10.976 billion bushels (278 million metric tons), possibly the third largesy crop in US history.
India free of Bird Flu
Government of India in its most recent report to OIE dated Aug 11, 2006 sas stated that it is now free of bird flu. The document can be found on the weblink as under:
http://dahd.nic.in/flu/OIEfinal.doc
The document clearly indicates that since the last known outbreak of H5N1 which occurred on April 18, 2006 and the subsequent cleaning and culling operations which were completed on May 07, 2006, no new cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza have been deteced in the country.
The disease free status will help the industry to get back to it feet and the exports will finally start. It is likley to help in better placements of broilers and also layers in major layer belts from where exports of eggs to Middle east countries take place namely Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pdeash. Export of Hatching eggs, chicks to Middle East, Nepal and Bangladesh was also effected which will hopefully open their doors for Indian prodcuts.
Just prior to the bird flu episode in Feb 2006, Indian poultry processing plants had received clearances from Japanese govermnent to export poultry meat to Japan. The diasease free status will help in getting back to export of poultry meat to this market as well.
Even though India has declared itself free of Avian Influenza, the surveillance of the poultry belts should continue and awareness regading reporting the diseases must be created, which will help in nipping the crisis early if it happens again.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Aug 12, 2006
Average maize prices in India suddenly shot up from last weeks Rs.6240 ($135.6) per MT to Rs.6350 ($138) per MT. The prices are likley to go up further as the most of the routes to production centres are cut of due to heavy rains in Central India in the last few days. Rains have also caused havoc in parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa.
Prices of maize in major consumption and production centres like Andhra Pradesh are up from $ 122 to $ 130, Gujarat from $ 150 to $154, Karnataka $ 123 to $ 134, Tamil Nadu $ 135 to $ 137, Uttar Pradesh $ 135 to $ 141 (All prices at market yard in respective states). With less availability and higher prices, it is getting more and difficult for the end users to use corn and keep profit margins.
Prices of Pearl Millet slid down after a long time from $139.3 to $131.4 per MT, but it is still not feasible to use the grain against corn as the prices only 5% lower than corn.
Prices of Sorghum are again up from last weeks $156.4 to $161 per MT and are higher than last years price of $153.7 per MT at the same time. The prices are higher than maize by 15% and does not warrant a change in the poultry rations.
Barley prices are also showing a down trend and were at $149.5 per MT by the end of the week, lower than last week by almost $2.5 Per MT.
Prices in US on the other hand have softened and CBOT closed at $88.4 per MT for September delivery, much lower than last weeks close of $96.43. This is probably due to the new estimates from USDA on corn production, which is now estimated at 10.976 billion bushels (278 million metric tons), possibly the third largesy crop in US history.
India free of Bird Flu
Government of India in its most recent report to OIE dated Aug 11, 2006 sas stated that it is now free of bird flu. The document can be found on the weblink as under:
http://dahd.nic.in/flu/OIEfinal.doc
The document clearly indicates that since the last known outbreak of H5N1 which occurred on April 18, 2006 and the subsequent cleaning and culling operations which were completed on May 07, 2006, no new cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza have been deteced in the country.
The disease free status will help the industry to get back to it feet and the exports will finally start. It is likley to help in better placements of broilers and also layers in major layer belts from where exports of eggs to Middle east countries take place namely Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pdeash. Export of Hatching eggs, chicks to Middle East, Nepal and Bangladesh was also effected which will hopefully open their doors for Indian prodcuts.
Just prior to the bird flu episode in Feb 2006, Indian poultry processing plants had received clearances from Japanese govermnent to export poultry meat to Japan. The diasease free status will help in getting back to export of poultry meat to this market as well.
Even though India has declared itself free of Avian Influenza, the surveillance of the poultry belts should continue and awareness regading reporting the diseases must be created, which will help in nipping the crisis early if it happens again.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Aug 12, 2006
Sunday, August 06, 2006
Maize availability - a big issue; Broilers in India – post AI episode
Maize availability - a big issue
Though the average price of maize at the market yard may not have gone up from last week’s Rs.6240 ($135.6) per MT, the availability of stocks sure is a major issue for the end users in non production areas like Gujarat, where average prices have moved up and delivered prices are close to Rs.7500 ($163) per MT. In the days to come the prices are likley to go up.
Prices in Bihar have also firmed up and are up from last weeks Rs.5610 ($122) per MT to Rs.5840 ($127) per Mt at the market yard. With renewed monsoon activity and heavy showers in South Maharashtra, Karnatak and in Andhra Pradesh, the likleyhood of standing crop getting affected is very high.
The prices of other coarse cereals, sorghum, bajra and barley have remained stable in the past week at Rs.7190 ($156.4) per MT, Rs.6430 ($139.8) per MT and Rs.6990 ($151.9) per MT respectively at the market yard. As the prices of sorghum is still about 15.3% higher than maize, the poultry sector is unable to utilize sorghum instaed of maize in the rations.
Prices at CBOT closed a $3.03 per MT higher than last week at $96.43 per MT for September delivery.
Due to heavy rains in the maize production areas, resowing may be required, which would also mean late harvest and lwo production. As the season would be delayed and arrivals would be only in November 2006, which is still 3 months from now. The price increase would be anybody’s guess.
While on one side there has been discussions about diversification in agriculture and farmers have been asked to move away from wheat – rice cultivation to oter crops, reports indicate that the situation for wheat is likely to worsen by 2012. GOI is contempelating schemes to bring in more land under wheat particularly in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar.
Broilers in India – post AI episode
Even though it has been over 5 months since the bird flu episode occurred in India, the poultry sector has not been able to come to terms with it. With losses being estimated at Rs.3000 crores ($0.65 billion), the industry which had placed 140 million broilers in Jan 2006, industry estimates suggest that the placement in March 2006 was down to 85 million broilers. The overall estimates for broiler placement for the financial year 2005-06 were pegged at 1694 million broilers was cut short to 1611 millions due to the bird flu episode. The growth which was estimated at 10.28% pre AI, is now 4.88%. There may still be time to cover the lost ground and partly cover some of the the losses in broiler placements and reach the end of 2005-06 level of 1694 million.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Aug 05, 2006
Though the average price of maize at the market yard may not have gone up from last week’s Rs.6240 ($135.6) per MT, the availability of stocks sure is a major issue for the end users in non production areas like Gujarat, where average prices have moved up and delivered prices are close to Rs.7500 ($163) per MT. In the days to come the prices are likley to go up.
Prices in Bihar have also firmed up and are up from last weeks Rs.5610 ($122) per MT to Rs.5840 ($127) per Mt at the market yard. With renewed monsoon activity and heavy showers in South Maharashtra, Karnatak and in Andhra Pradesh, the likleyhood of standing crop getting affected is very high.
The prices of other coarse cereals, sorghum, bajra and barley have remained stable in the past week at Rs.7190 ($156.4) per MT, Rs.6430 ($139.8) per MT and Rs.6990 ($151.9) per MT respectively at the market yard. As the prices of sorghum is still about 15.3% higher than maize, the poultry sector is unable to utilize sorghum instaed of maize in the rations.
Prices at CBOT closed a $3.03 per MT higher than last week at $96.43 per MT for September delivery.
Due to heavy rains in the maize production areas, resowing may be required, which would also mean late harvest and lwo production. As the season would be delayed and arrivals would be only in November 2006, which is still 3 months from now. The price increase would be anybody’s guess.
While on one side there has been discussions about diversification in agriculture and farmers have been asked to move away from wheat – rice cultivation to oter crops, reports indicate that the situation for wheat is likely to worsen by 2012. GOI is contempelating schemes to bring in more land under wheat particularly in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar.
Broilers in India – post AI episode
Even though it has been over 5 months since the bird flu episode occurred in India, the poultry sector has not been able to come to terms with it. With losses being estimated at Rs.3000 crores ($0.65 billion), the industry which had placed 140 million broilers in Jan 2006, industry estimates suggest that the placement in March 2006 was down to 85 million broilers. The overall estimates for broiler placement for the financial year 2005-06 were pegged at 1694 million broilers was cut short to 1611 millions due to the bird flu episode. The growth which was estimated at 10.28% pre AI, is now 4.88%. There may still be time to cover the lost ground and partly cover some of the the losses in broiler placements and reach the end of 2005-06 level of 1694 million.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Aug 05, 2006
Saturday, July 29, 2006
Imports of agri commodities – A big question; How to feed the growing population?
Imports of agri commodities – A big question
Another tender of 0.4 MMT of wheat was announced on Thursday, July 27, 2006. With this tender the total imports of wheat into India will be close to 3.9 MMT at zero percent duty. There has been confusion on duty on imports by private players and traders, which at one time was announced as zero percent, but later increased to 5 percent.
Price analysis in early July 2006 indicated that it is not only the food grain (wheat) which is in short supply, but also the coarse cereals and pulses are in short supply and thus the duty on imports of pulses was slashed.
The situation is somewhat similar for Maize as well and the price to the end user is about Rs.7200 – Rs.7300 per MT, about 35% higher that the Minimum Support Price (MSP) announced by GOI. The steep price is making it difficult for the poultry farmers and starch manufacturers to use more maize.
Looking at the prices at the market yard, the average price for maize is Rs.6233 ($135.5) per MT. Other grains like Sorghum (Rs.7263 per MT), and Bajra (Rs.6431 per MT) and still higher and can not be used in poultry feed.
GOI has decided to release maize from the FCI go-downs. Reports indicate that 0.45 MMT of maize will be released into the market by open tender and another 0.1 MMT will be at the discretion of the State Director of Animal Husbandry, for which the price to the end users has been fixed at Rs.5500 and the difference between the market value and the fixed value will be covered by the Department of Animal Husbandry. The 0.1 MMT has been earmarked as 50,000 tons for Andhra Pradesh and 25,000 tons each for Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. Stocks for Maharashtra will be released from Karnataka, while that for Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu will be released from Andhra Pradesh. The condition of the stock is still to be examined and it will be some time before these stocks area available. Based on the numbers the average requirement for India for maize is over 1.1 MMT and the FCI maize will cover only 50% of the months requirement.
CBOT this week closed for Sept delivery at $2.372 per bushel ($93.36 per MT) and for Dec delivery $2.534 per bushel ($99.73 per MT),which is same as last week’s close.
The ocean freight rates are expected to jump due to the increase in the crude oil prices and additional fuel surcharges being levied. As per Mr.Ken Eriksen, vice president-transportation, Informa Econmics, who spoke at the U.S. Grains Council’s 46th Board of Delegates’ Meeting, the US domestic freight traffic will increase 67 percent and general cargo 113 percent. Barges are the most fuel-efficient transportation method and will remain so, followed by rail and then truck. But as many barges are due to be retired soon, higher demand for barges is likley to increase the prices.
He also pointed out that that ocean freight is a rising wave with larger and larger ships coming on line, including a 96,000 TEU (20 feet equivalent units) containership.
How to feed the growing population?
The populations is two most populous countries, China and India are incearsing fast and India is likley to take over China and become the most populous country by 2025. By 2050 the world population is going to increase to 8.5 – 9.6 billion and most of this population increase is going to come from Asia, which has only 30% of arable land. There are only two ways to feed the increasing population, either increase the productivity from the current land or import.
Along with the population increase, the affluence of the people is also increasng and food is the first change people tend to make as their income increases. This allows them to move from grains and oils to meat, milk and eggs which not only help improve their diets
China and India have started a move towrads imports, China with import of corn to feed the increased animal populations and India with wheat to feed its growing human population.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Jul 29, 2006
Another tender of 0.4 MMT of wheat was announced on Thursday, July 27, 2006. With this tender the total imports of wheat into India will be close to 3.9 MMT at zero percent duty. There has been confusion on duty on imports by private players and traders, which at one time was announced as zero percent, but later increased to 5 percent.
Price analysis in early July 2006 indicated that it is not only the food grain (wheat) which is in short supply, but also the coarse cereals and pulses are in short supply and thus the duty on imports of pulses was slashed.
The situation is somewhat similar for Maize as well and the price to the end user is about Rs.7200 – Rs.7300 per MT, about 35% higher that the Minimum Support Price (MSP) announced by GOI. The steep price is making it difficult for the poultry farmers and starch manufacturers to use more maize.
Looking at the prices at the market yard, the average price for maize is Rs.6233 ($135.5) per MT. Other grains like Sorghum (Rs.7263 per MT), and Bajra (Rs.6431 per MT) and still higher and can not be used in poultry feed.
GOI has decided to release maize from the FCI go-downs. Reports indicate that 0.45 MMT of maize will be released into the market by open tender and another 0.1 MMT will be at the discretion of the State Director of Animal Husbandry, for which the price to the end users has been fixed at Rs.5500 and the difference between the market value and the fixed value will be covered by the Department of Animal Husbandry. The 0.1 MMT has been earmarked as 50,000 tons for Andhra Pradesh and 25,000 tons each for Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. Stocks for Maharashtra will be released from Karnataka, while that for Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu will be released from Andhra Pradesh. The condition of the stock is still to be examined and it will be some time before these stocks area available. Based on the numbers the average requirement for India for maize is over 1.1 MMT and the FCI maize will cover only 50% of the months requirement.
CBOT this week closed for Sept delivery at $2.372 per bushel ($93.36 per MT) and for Dec delivery $2.534 per bushel ($99.73 per MT),which is same as last week’s close.
The ocean freight rates are expected to jump due to the increase in the crude oil prices and additional fuel surcharges being levied. As per Mr.Ken Eriksen, vice president-transportation, Informa Econmics, who spoke at the U.S. Grains Council’s 46th Board of Delegates’ Meeting, the US domestic freight traffic will increase 67 percent and general cargo 113 percent. Barges are the most fuel-efficient transportation method and will remain so, followed by rail and then truck. But as many barges are due to be retired soon, higher demand for barges is likley to increase the prices.
He also pointed out that that ocean freight is a rising wave with larger and larger ships coming on line, including a 96,000 TEU (20 feet equivalent units) containership.
How to feed the growing population?
The populations is two most populous countries, China and India are incearsing fast and India is likley to take over China and become the most populous country by 2025. By 2050 the world population is going to increase to 8.5 – 9.6 billion and most of this population increase is going to come from Asia, which has only 30% of arable land. There are only two ways to feed the increasing population, either increase the productivity from the current land or import.
Along with the population increase, the affluence of the people is also increasng and food is the first change people tend to make as their income increases. This allows them to move from grains and oils to meat, milk and eggs which not only help improve their diets
China and India have started a move towrads imports, China with import of corn to feed the increased animal populations and India with wheat to feed its growing human population.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Jul 29, 2006
Monday, July 24, 2006
Corn prices in India move up, supply becoming tight; Pressure on Ethanol – more corn production in US
Corn prices in India move up, supply becoming tight
Corn prices in almost all consumption areas went up and average corn prices are close to Rs.6200 ($135) per MT at the market yards. Delivered prices are close to Rs.6800 – Rs.7200 ($149 - $157) per MT depending on the destination. The prices are higher than last year during the same period by about 4% (at the market yard).
Till date no concrete information on release of corn stocks from Food Corporation of India in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh is available. Unless that happens or GOI allows imports, it will be difficult for the end users (poultry and starch) sector to meet their requirements.
While prices of Sorghum are higher than last week by about Rs.150 per ton, ruling at Rs.7670 per MT, they are still lower than last year by Rs.740 per ton at the market yard.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices are also higher by Rs.115 per MT over last week, ruling at Rs.6640 per MT but lower than last year by about Rs.120 per MT at the market yard.
Barley prices are at the market yard is higher than last week by about Rs.60 per MT (a very small increase) and ruling at over Rs.7000 per MT, which to almost all malt manufacturers is a higher price. The price is also higher than last year by Rs.190 per MT.
In the US, CBOT closed lower than last week. Sept delivery was $93.36 Per MT while Dec delivery was $99.73 per MT. The FOB values (US Gulf) were $112.30 for July and August and $116.65 for Sept 2006. USDA expects the production of corn for 2006 to be 266.7 MMT, while the Informa Ecomonics estimate the corn crop to be 277 MMT.
Pressure on Ethanol – more corn production in US
Increase in the industrial usage of corn, especially ethanol is going to put pressure on corn and will eventually lead to more corn acres being planted in the US at the expense of wheat and soy.
International Grains Council has forecast a jump of 38.1 MMT in industrial grain usage from 2005-06 estimates to 2006-07, the major change coming through ethanol production. The estimate for 2005-06 was ethanol, 41 MMT; Starch 68.2 MMT; Brewing 29.7 MMT; and others 9.1 MMT, making a total of 147.9 MMT in industrial usage. The provisional numbers for 2005-06 are 50.2 MMT for ethanol; 72.6 MMT for Starch; 30.7 MMT for brewing and 10.1 MMT for others. For the 2006-07 forecast, the numbers are 65.3 MMT for ethanol; 79 MMT for Starch; 31.3 MMT for Brewing and 10.3 MMT for other usage.
This increased demand for ethanol production is also likely to push the pries higher. In 2005 the average corn price was $1.98 per bushel ($77.93 per MT). For the current crop is is estimated at $2.33 per bushel ($91.71 per MT). By 2010 the average price will be $2.69 per bushel ($105.88 per MT).
A research conducted by University of Missouri indicates than over a long term, ethanol will have a major impact on corn acres. Five US states, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio plant 36 Million acres of corn and a similar amount of land is on Soy. By 2010, the five states will grow corn on 39 Million acres and soy crop will be grown on 33 million acres.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Jul 22, 2006
Corn prices in almost all consumption areas went up and average corn prices are close to Rs.6200 ($135) per MT at the market yards. Delivered prices are close to Rs.6800 – Rs.7200 ($149 - $157) per MT depending on the destination. The prices are higher than last year during the same period by about 4% (at the market yard).
Till date no concrete information on release of corn stocks from Food Corporation of India in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh is available. Unless that happens or GOI allows imports, it will be difficult for the end users (poultry and starch) sector to meet their requirements.
While prices of Sorghum are higher than last week by about Rs.150 per ton, ruling at Rs.7670 per MT, they are still lower than last year by Rs.740 per ton at the market yard.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices are also higher by Rs.115 per MT over last week, ruling at Rs.6640 per MT but lower than last year by about Rs.120 per MT at the market yard.
Barley prices are at the market yard is higher than last week by about Rs.60 per MT (a very small increase) and ruling at over Rs.7000 per MT, which to almost all malt manufacturers is a higher price. The price is also higher than last year by Rs.190 per MT.
In the US, CBOT closed lower than last week. Sept delivery was $93.36 Per MT while Dec delivery was $99.73 per MT. The FOB values (US Gulf) were $112.30 for July and August and $116.65 for Sept 2006. USDA expects the production of corn for 2006 to be 266.7 MMT, while the Informa Ecomonics estimate the corn crop to be 277 MMT.
Pressure on Ethanol – more corn production in US
Increase in the industrial usage of corn, especially ethanol is going to put pressure on corn and will eventually lead to more corn acres being planted in the US at the expense of wheat and soy.
International Grains Council has forecast a jump of 38.1 MMT in industrial grain usage from 2005-06 estimates to 2006-07, the major change coming through ethanol production. The estimate for 2005-06 was ethanol, 41 MMT; Starch 68.2 MMT; Brewing 29.7 MMT; and others 9.1 MMT, making a total of 147.9 MMT in industrial usage. The provisional numbers for 2005-06 are 50.2 MMT for ethanol; 72.6 MMT for Starch; 30.7 MMT for brewing and 10.1 MMT for others. For the 2006-07 forecast, the numbers are 65.3 MMT for ethanol; 79 MMT for Starch; 31.3 MMT for Brewing and 10.3 MMT for other usage.
This increased demand for ethanol production is also likely to push the pries higher. In 2005 the average corn price was $1.98 per bushel ($77.93 per MT). For the current crop is is estimated at $2.33 per bushel ($91.71 per MT). By 2010 the average price will be $2.69 per bushel ($105.88 per MT).
A research conducted by University of Missouri indicates than over a long term, ethanol will have a major impact on corn acres. Five US states, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio plant 36 Million acres of corn and a similar amount of land is on Soy. By 2010, the five states will grow corn on 39 Million acres and soy crop will be grown on 33 million acres.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Jul 22, 2006
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