Saturday, February 25, 2006

Maize Price Update; Ripple Effect of Avian Influenza

Maize Price Update

As the bird flu hit the Indian poultry industry last week, there was anticipation that the prices will fall, due to the decrease in demand, but surprisingly the prices have been stable all week, which some very small changes within this week. The average weekly prices for the week was Rs.5922 ($133) per MT at the market yard. The spot prices (average) between Davangere and Nizamabad were Rs.5518 ($124) per MT.

Within the month of February, the prices of the Maize have increased. The average market yard price has increased from Rs.5696 ($128) at the start of the month to Rs.5922 ($131) per MT, an increase of about 4% within the month, bringing it to January 2006 levels. In the last week of Feb 2005, the average price at Market yard was Rs.5518 ($124) per MT. The prices in Feb 2006 are higher by 7.2% than last year.

The average spot prices started the month with Rs.5442 ($122.3) per MT, ended the month with the spot prices of Rs.5518 ($124) per MT, a nominal increase of 1.4% within the month of February 2006.

It is too early to say what will be the effect on maize prices as Avian Influenza threat remains in the country and unless the AI is wiped out and contained in the area, where it has been found on the border of Maharashtra and Gujarat.

The prices of Corn (maize) in US are slightly up and CBOT closed on Friday at $89.73 per MT for March 2006 deliveries, about $0.50 up from last weeks close of $89.24 per MT. The FOB value US Gulf remained at $108 per MT.

Reports also indicate that China will not be in the market for corn exports in the near future. China had allocated 4 MMT of corn for export and will not be issuing any new export quotas. Increase in demand from the dairy and swine sector is increasing the domestic demand and the prices of corn in China.

Demand of corn is also likely to increase within US, specially in the Ethanol sector, which is projected to use 40 MMT of corn in 2005/06. In 2007 the ethanol sector is expected to use 54 MMT of corn, while the exports are projected at 50.8 MMT for the same year. Ethanol production in 2006 is expected to be 5.1 billion gallons (19.30 billion liters) and expected to increase to 7 billion gallons (26.49 billion liters) by 2007. But there will be still enough corn in US to feed the growing world markets.

Ripple Effect of Avian Influenza

With the Government of India doing all within its scope to contain the Avian Influenza outbreak in the border areas of Maharashtra and Gujarat where it was first reported and with all 95 human blood samples testing negative for AI, the Industry has been hit severely.

The industry places & sells about 5 million broiler chicks every day and produces approximately 123 million eggs every day. All sales and placements have been hit very badly due to the panic reaction.

The demand of poultry products (broiler meat and eggs) has taken a nosedive especially in Maharashtra which is the ground zero. Consumption in Delhi is down by approximately 50%, while in Bombay the consumption is down by 80%. Most restaurants, hotels in all the metros are not serving any chicken or poultry products, thus affecting the overall profitability of the sector.

The total loss of the industry in last 6 days, since the outbreak took place is close to Rs.2500 million ($56 million), and the losses are more likely to go up, if the demand of poultry products does not stabilize and increases in the long run.

The exports of eggs, egg powder and poultry meat has sharply declined since the outbreak. Most of the eggs, egg powder and even poultry meat is exported from Tamil Nadu, effecting the very economy of the state.

It is not only the farmers, but also the allied sectors that have been affected and it is difficult to make a guess on the losses. Supplies of inputs like Soy meal, Corn Glutten Meal, which are required on a regular basis have stopped, a cause of worry to the soy crushers and starch manufacturers.

In order to be back on its feet, sustain the projected growth of 10% or higher and get back into the export markets, the industry will need to learn from other countries like China, which too was affected by AI in 2004. Though it has taken more than a year to get back into the export market, the focus within the industry has shifted to Food Safety.

In China, many companies have streamlined their processes and breeding, hatching feed production, including transportation and processing are carried out in a standardized way. A tracing system has been established for the purpose of food safety, which can be used to inspect the whole process from broiler production to processing, further processing, transport, sales and consumption. Within the system, it is necessary to identify a shed in a poultry farm, where the problem might have occurred and isolate the same. If “All in All out” system is followed, it is a much better option. In India, some of the systems are in place with the integrators, but still more will needs to be done, to win that consumer trust back that has been lost.

Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com

Feb 25, 2006

Saturday, February 18, 2006

Bird flu confirmed in India; Maize prices stabilize; Your new cell phone may be made from Corn-Based Plastic

Bird flu confirmed in India

As bird flu is reported in other parts of the world particularly the Middle East, Europe and Africa, reports of the first bird flu case emerges from India as well.

While else where is it mostly wild birds and swans, in a small village on the border of Maharahstra and Gujarat, bird flu has been confirmed in poultry birds. Reports available indicate death of 50000 – 120000 birds, but these are all unconfirmed, but the high security lab at Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh has confirmed the news.

As per the international protocol, all farms in 3 km radius have been cordoned. Reports available indicate a population of 500,000 birds in this area, which will be culled and birds destroyed. The government is gearing up to take steps to safe guard the interest of the farmers and the sector at large with provides livelihood to more than 3 million people in the country.

India is the 5th largest producer of broilers with a placement of 1700 million broilers per year, and 6th Largest producer of eggs with a production of 43 billion eggs per year. With a per capita availability of broiler meat and eggs at 1.8 kg and 41 eggs per person per year, it is makes a small, but significant contribution to the protein intake of the Indian population.

The last episode of the bird flu scare in Jan 2004 caused a loss of about Rs.3000 crores ($674 million) to the industry, just because of the panic, but this time the industry and the government is well prepared to handle the situation even thought the disease has been confirmed.

With the cordoning of the area, the government has given clear signals that it will try its best to contain the disease in the area, but the industry must also join hands in creating awareness amongst the populace that a properly cooked chicken and eggs safe to be eaten.

In addition, bio-security at the farms must be stepped up and any dead birds reported to the authorities.

There is a general belief that the integrated sector in India would be safe as they take more precautions than the small / medium individual farmers who might be affected if the disease spreads.

As on other countries Iran has reported 135 wild swans that died from bird flu near the Caspian Sea. Iraq have declared a bird flu alert in the southern province of Maysan. The province is described as a major southern trade route so security forces have totally closed the area to prevent people from carrying birds out. The disease is apparently in local birds, not migratory birds but the area is known for rich marshlands that are home to a vast collection of bird life. Health authorities have sent tissue samples of 12 Iraqi people suspected of having H5N1 to a U.S. Navy laboratory in Egypt for testing Saturday. At least four people have died in Iraq since the outbreak was first confirmed in January 2006.

The killer strain of the Avian Flu has also been detected in North western Iran, according to reports available from World Heath Organization (WHO). The strain has been found in dead wild swans. The dead swans were found in two sites in the Anzali wetlands of the northwestern Gilan province. Immediately, protection and surveillance zones were established in the area.

As per a note from Iran Veterinary Organization (IVO), around 18,500 domestic birds in six villages within a radius of 2 km around the affected sites have been culled and owners have received compensation. All poultry around the wetlands has been identified, the movement of poultry products is under control, assembly of live birds at markets is banned and awareness campaign started among poultry owners created, the IVO report stated.

In Europe, Hungary is the lastest country to report the disease. Other countries that have already reported death of swans due to H5N1 include Germany, Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Ukraine, Romania, Slovenia and Austria. Danish officials have also found dead birds on some of their islands in the Baltic Sea, test results are pending while Poland is testing three dead swans found on the Baltic coast. The governments of Switzerland, Sweden and Norway have ordered those with poultry to keep their birds indoors in an effort to prevent the spread of the disease.

In Africa, Nigeria is the first country to report death of birds due to Avian Flu. Some 140,000 birds have been killed and farmers are trying to quickly sell their chickens before they are killed. The strain has been confirmed in three northern states but outbreaks are now suspected in at least five others. In neighboring Niger also, officials are investigating two dead roosters found in a market there.

The arrival of avian flu in Africa has been of particular concern since most African nations are economically poor and have little in the way of funding or resources to help fight a bird-flu pandemic. With human cases also suspected in Nigeria, where man and bird share the same space, it will be a difficult time ahead for the Nigerian officials and farmers.

Maize prices stabilize

With most of the end users covered for atleast next 30 – 45 days and supplies in the market yard dwindling, the prices of maize are slowly softening. The prices are also softening as the quality as desired by the end user is not available at the fag end of the season. Looking at the price trend the prices this week averaged at about Rs.5900 ($131) per MT at the market yard, still about 6% higher than the prices last year during the same period.

Looking at the prices in the last 3 months, average prices in Nov 2005 were higher by about 14% than Nov 2004. In Dec 2005 the difference dropped to approximately 8% and again in Jan 2006 the prices were higher by 11.5% than Jan 2005.

It is not only India, which is facing the availability crunch. End users in Philippines are under similar threat and have approached the government to remove the tariff on corn imports.

It is still a month before the rabi crop hits the market and the prices are likely to increase in coming months.

Prices in US went up by about $5.6 per ton and ender at $89.17 per ton, which FOB values also moving up to $109 – 110 per ton range (US Gulf).

Your new cell phone may be made from Corn-Based Plastic

Reports available from Japan indicate that NEC Corp. and Unitika Ltd. have developed an eco-friendly bio-plastic which will be to be used in the cellphones of NTT DoCoMo Inc.

The plastic, made with Poly Lactic Acid (PLA) derived from corn, is reinforced with the fiber from another plant called kenaf, which is capable of absorbing carbon dioxide in the air, to improve its heat resistance -- a factor making it available for use in mobile phones.

Amid concerns about depletion of natural resources and global warming caused by extensive use of petroleum, PLA has drawn wide industrial attention specially in Japan and Taiwan because of its promise as an environmentally friendly material.

PLA has not been considered desirable for use in electronic gadgets because it has been more brittle and less heat-resistant than petroleum-based plastics, but with use of kenaf, another plant based fiber and the development of new methods to blend ingredients, it will be possible to use the product in electronic gadgets.

The new Foma N701iEco handsets which DoCoMo plans to market, will hit the Japanese markets in March 2006 will be made with the new bio-plastic, about 90 percent of which is made from plant-based substances.

Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com

Feb 18, 2006

Saturday, February 11, 2006

Maize prices move up; WTO biotech ruling in favour of US;Ban on meat imports extended in India

Maize prices move up

With reports of a lower Rabi maize, the prices of the commodity, the main raw material for the poultry feed to provide energy have moved up. While last week the average price was Rs.5700 ($128) per MT, the week has ended with an average price of Rs.5874 ($132. Prices across the board for all varieties in all states have gone up. Yellow maize sold at Rs.6540 ($147), up from Rs.5830 ($131) last week, while the Red variety sold for Rs.6500 ($146), up from last weeks Rs.6000 ($135). Prices in Uttar Pradesh notched to Rs.6850 ($154) per MT at the market yard.

It must been seen that on the above prices the end users must pay 15-18% for packaging, loading, unloading and transport (depending on destination) and on top of this bank interest and ware housing charges if the stock is to be stored for longer periods.

Some end users have indicated that due to buying pressure in the production areas, their average purchase price has gone up to Rs.5600 ($126) from Rs.5000 ($112) last year during the same period, an upswing of Rs.600 per ton (12%) in one year
As there are concerns about the availability, the concerns about prices and bottom lines are rising. The average annual requirement of maize in the country is 13.73 MMT (1.14 MMT per month) and with production now anticipated to be around 11.75 – 12 MMT, a deficit of 0.14 MMT per month is seen (1.68 MMT in a year).

Another reason for the short supply can be the move from wheat to corn as the markets witnessed lower supplies. Movement towards maize as staple food in some of the states is a possibility as wheat supplies were reduced.

With demand of maize in poultry sector growing at 6.3% per annum, much more than the production growth (average agri growth 2.3% as estimated by GOI), poultry sector must be ready for difficult times ahead. It is likely that the availability of the basic raw material will affect the growth of the sector and small farmers who will not be able to cope up with the rise in maize prices will close farms.

Other sector likely to be affected is the industrial sector, which produces starch, used in pharmaceuticals, textile, paper, and food sector to name a few. Other products manufactured by the sector include sorbitol, dextrose, maltose etc, which has varied uses in the pharma and food business.

In order to make wheat available to the states of Karnataka and Kerala, the State Trading Corporation took out a tender on Friday, Feb 10, 2006 for imports of 500,000 MT of wheat. As per the reports available, Wheat is likely to be imported at Mangalore, Cochin, Tuticorin, Chennai and Vishakhapatman. Reports also indicate that the ports are gearing up for these imports that are likely to happen between March – May 2006.

U S Department of Agriculture came out with the WASDE report on Feb 09, 2006, which indicates lower year end stocks as compared to last month. This is mainly due to increased domestic use, especially for ethanol, which is estimated at 40.65 MMT, up from last month estimates of 40 MMT. The average prices to the farmer is expected to be $68.88 - $80.68 per ton, down from $95.25 per ton in 2003/04 and $ 81.08 for the year 2004/05.

The detailed report can be found at
http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/waobr/view.asp?f=wasde-bb

The prices in US for the week ended (Feb 10, 2006) at $87.06 per ton, while the FOB rate (US Gulf) was $108 per ton.

WTO biotech ruling in favour of US

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has upheld the US challenge to European Union’s (EU) ban/moratorium on agricultural crops derived from biotechnology. Preliminary ruling reported that the moratorium is not based on scientific lines. The United States, Argentina and Canada in the joint challenge, had asserted the moratorium violates international trade rules and undermines the development and use of biotechnology. The challenge also argued that the ban is not based on scientific evidence and maintained that biotech crops are as safe to health and the environment as other crops.

The final decision will be out only in mid-2006 and EU is likely to file an appeal against the ruling.

In the last decade since the biotech crops were commercialized, EU was a buyer of US corn, valued at approximately $300 million every year till 1998, when the moratorium was put in place. In addition, 10 new countries which joined EU in 2004 have since stopped buying US Corn.

There is also a fear among EU states that there will be huge compensation claims from the American biotech industry, as the preliminary ruling suggested that member states had illegally banned imports of genetically modified food.

Prof. Dr. Marc Van Montagus, who also produced the first GM plant in Europe, is convinced that technology transfer and plant biotechnology research could revolutionise both agriculture and the food industry. In a press conference in Brussels, he said, “Europe is lagging behind its worldwide competitors and European farmers are deprived of access to one of the fastest growing technologies in agriculture,"

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) also have said there are no greater risks associated with biotech-derived foods than with conventional plants and foods.

The ruling also found inconsistencies within the European regulatory system and by not allowing its approval system to operate, the EU has imposed undue delays on biotech approvals, resulting in extensive delays and preventing the marketing of many crops grown in the United States.

In October 2005, an E Journal, The Promise of Biotechnology was launched by U S Department of State. The journal can be assessed and downloaded from the following link.
http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/ites/1005/ijee/ijee1005.htm

In another development the American Dietetic Association (ADA) has recognized the important role biotech crops play in modern agriculture. In a statement released, it notes that “agricultural and food biotechnology techniques can enhance the quality, safety, nutritional value, and variety of food available for human consumption and increase the efficiency of food production, food processing, food distribution, and environmental and waste management.” The ADA went on to call for the government, food manufacturers, food commodity groups as well as qualified food and nutrition professionals educate consumers about Ag biotech and encourage availability in the marketplace.

Ban on meat imports extended in India

Through an express notification, GOI has extended the ban on meat and livestock product imports from those countries which have reported cases of Avian Influenza. In a section of the press it has been reported – INDIA BANS MEAT IMPORTS, which could create a panic in the minds of the consumers.

Discussions with officials has indicated that the new notification is only an extension of the old one and imports from those countries which do not have Avian Influenza are allowed.

India has not reported any cases of Avian Influenza and Department of Animal Husbandry is following up with the state forest departments on the status on the migratory birds.

Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com

Feb 11, 2006

Saturday, February 04, 2006

GOI allows imports on Wheat;Japan to increase use of bio-fuels and bio-plastics; Focus on Biotechnology

GOI allows imports on Wheat

Duty free import of 500,000 tons of wheat has been allowed by GOI through State Trading Corporation (STC’s), setting a precedence for imports of agri commodities to check the rising commodity prices. Wheat prices in South India has touched a all time high of Rs.12000 ($270) per ton in retail. As the food habits are changing in South India, demand of wheat is rising. The prices in North are also rising and were reported at Rs.9500 ($213) per ton.

As per the reports available, the imports are expected to arrive in about 60 days in the South India ports only, namely., Chennai, Tuticorin, Vishakhapatnam and Kakinada and are meant for South India states.

The arrival of imported wheat will coincide with the procurement of wheat in North India and it will be some time before the wheat from North India makes way to South India. As per GOI the imports are not expected to affect the farmers price and imports will help the end users to buy some time till stocks from North India (domestic) can be routed to South India.

It is not only wheat, whose prices are rising. Maize (corn) prices have also risen and the end users specially the Poultry sector and the starch manufacturers are finding it difficult to procure maize to fulfil their requirements. The crop of corn is expected to arrive in the markets in March/April in Bihar, Tamil Nadu and small crops in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. The end users face high prices every year from April to September, which, this year have been from Dec 2005 only.

Average prices for the best red and yellow varieties at the start of the week (Jan 30), were $137 (Rs.6100) per ton and $141 (Rs.6275) per ton. The prices by the end of the week had gone up to $144 (Rs.6400) per ton forred and had remained same from the yellow varieties. Prices of other commodities like Jowar (Grain Sorghum) and Bajra (Pearl Millet) also averaged $150 (Rs.6675) per ton by the end of the week, higher than the maize prices, making it more difficult for the poultry farmers to feed the birds.

If GOI does open imports and takes a duty free route for maize as they have done for wheat, imports are most likely to happen in Kandla (Gujarat) to be used the starch and poultry sector (layer and broilers) in Gujarat, Chennai and Cochin to be used by poultry sector (broiler and layers) in Tamil Nadu, Bombay to be used by the starch and poultry sector in Maharashtra. The end users are sure that if GOI allows imports as in the case of wheat, it will help stabilize the prices by releasing the demand pressure in production states of Karnataka. Even in GOI decides to allows imports, it will happen only in April 2006, when local crop is not available in Gujarat and Maharashtra.

Prices in Gujarat which averaged $136.5 (Rs.6075) per ton in January 2006, started with $140 (Rs.6230) per ton in Feb 2006.

Prices in US are also slowly inching up. CBOT prices for March delivery closed at $88.68 per ton on Feb 03, 2006, up by almost 5.4% than last week close of $84.12 per ton, thus increasing the FOB (US Gulf) price as well to $108.75 per ton for March delivery, an increase of approximately $2.75 per ton. It is highly unlikely that the prices are going to show a down trend in US.

Japan to increase use of bio-fuels and bio-plastics

It is estimated that the demand for bio-fuels will be increasing in Japan by 20% per year. Japan is committed to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions as part of the Kyoto Protocol and the blending will help reduce the carbon-dioxide emissions by almost 600,000 tons per years, reports U S Grains Council office in Japan.

It is not only the biofuels, but also bio-plastics that will help reduce the environment load in Japan. The country used only 12,000 tons of Poly Lactic Acid (PLA) in 2005. Companies are increasing their capacities to use more of bio-plastics for food and beverages packing as it reduces the environment pollution. Bio-plastics will disintegrate in the environment in 35 – 40 days in proper temperature and moisture. Nikkei Biotechnology & Business Review estimates that the market for bio-plastics is worth about $22 million in Japan.

In countries like India, where dumping grounds, drains and fields are chocked with non-biodegradable plastic, use of bio-plastics makes sense. Policy interventions will be required to make it possible for industries to use the environmental friendly technologies, which will help the citizens of the country at large.

Focus on Biotechnology

A new book titled “Let Them Eat Precaution”, written by Jay Byrne, Gregory Conko, Jon Entine, Tony Gilland, Thomas Jefferson Hoban, Patrick Moore, Andrew S. Natsios, Martina Newell-McGloughlin, Robert L. Paarlberg, C. S. Prakash, Carol Tucker Foreman and Edited by Jon Entine, published by American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research talks about the communication void between the scientific community, innovators and the so called green groups.

In order that the benefits of the technology seep through to those who are in most need, like the children who die or go blind because of infections, vitamin A deficiency, it is vital that the void is removed. The technology it seems is a victim of a transatlantic cultural and trade war.

Among the key points made in "Let Them Eat Precaution":

-- Cultural politics and trade disputes, not science, pose the biggest hurdles in developing genetically modified products.

-- Countless independent scientific studies have shown that biotech farming can dramatically reduce reliance on costly and environmentally harmful chemicals, with results as safe and healthy as organic products.

-- Bioengineering has created new kinds of soybeans, wheat, and cotton that generate natural insecticides (making them more resistant to pests and drought and increasing yields); nutrition-added fruits, vegetables, and grains; and futuristic "farmaceuticals" -- life-saving medicines made by melding agricultural methods with advanced biotechnology.

-- Even though the National Academy of Sciences issued a report two years ago calling the fears of anti-biotechnology "scientifically unjustified," noting that genetic engineering is "not an inherently hazardous process," opponents -- including well-funded environmental groups such as Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth; organic advocates; religious groups such as Christian Aid; and "socially responsible" investors -- argue that the U.S. government and multinational corporations are ushering in an age of "Frankenfoods."

-- Ironically, while the political battle simmers in Europe and North America, fast-growing countries such as China, India, Brazil, and even Iran are growing record amounts of genetically modified (GM) cotton and rice altered to resist insects which reduces the use of chemical pesticides. The acreage devoted to GM crops is growing at double-digit rates, increasing to 222 million acres last year, although growth in the U.S. and other major farming countries is slowing because of political opposition.

The book review is available at the following link.

http://www.aei.org/books/bookID.842,filter.all/book_detail.asp


Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com

Feb 04, 2006