The Long and the Short of Bird Flu; Commodity prices are stable

The Long and the Short of Bird Flu

As the second case of bird flu was found in Jalagaon, a small hamlet in Maharashtra, plummeting the prices and the consumption of chicken in India, yet again. The prices which were showing signs of revival and had reached Rs.28 per kg live in Delhi market, crashed to Rs.15 per kg live. The consumption which had reached 60-65% level in some markets, crashed again.

This time though the bird flu has been found in native birds, which have never been part of the monitoring system and vaccination for any kind of disease. It has always been said that the native birds are hardy and can withstand the disease pressure. This time though it was proved wrong. Any live stock can succumb to the disease pressure.

Though Government of India has already ordered the culling of 75,000 birds in the area and the area will not be depopulated and decontaminated, it must be seen that no new outbreaks occur and lessons must be learnt from countries from Thailand, which have won the war against the deadly disease.

The first episode of bird flu was reported in Thailand in 2004 and since then 22 people has been reported dead due to the disease. This year though, there have no cases of bird flu in Thailand – human or animal and this has been possible by the commitment the Thai government made to WHO and other international agencies. 750,000 strong army of volunteers were given the charge of monitoring and surveillance of villages and reporting any bird deaths and human illnesses. This was part of the strategy to nip the disease in its early stages and it has worked.

In other countries massive disinfection programs have been started and potent disinfectants are been used in areas where there is high poultry concentrations. In some other countries, vaccination of all poultry birds is being started. But the question is what needs to be done in India?

On the short term, there are two things that will need to be done and both are complementary to each other:

1. Awareness about the spread of the bird flu and how to stem the spread by using bio-security measures. Monitoring of the birds including native birds and bringing them under the safety net will be a critical step in the equation.

2. A massive PR exercise (on the lines of AIDS awareness), wherein the consumers need to made aware that the disease does not spread by eating properly cooked poultry products.

If India can do the exercise to eradicate Malaria and working towards eradication of Polio, we can very much eradicate bird flu as well if efforts are made collectively by all the stake holders, be it organized poultry or backyard poultry.

On the long term, a plan must be started to create processing and cold chain infrastructure through a public private partnership, wherein companies can be asked to join hands with state governments to create the infrastructure. The

Venture Capital fund and the Rs.1000 crores ($225 million) special food processing fund can be utilized for the purpose. Creating a food safety net, to win the confidence of the consumer will need to be a priority.

The World Health Organization (WHO) on its website has given answers fo some frequently asked questions. The questions and answers may be found at:

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/avian_faqs/en/index.html#poultry

It will be necessary to answer the questions being asked by the consumers correctly without creating any confusion, so as the consumers can be confident about consuming the poultry products.

Commodity prices are stable

Even as bird flu episode enters the 4th week, the prices of commodity, specially corn is stable. Though few markets, like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh experienced decline in prices, other markets like Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh showed an upward trend. The overall prices declined from last weeks $131.2 per MT to $129.2 per MT this week, a loss of $2 on per MT at the market yard. But the arrivals in the market are not higher and most end users and traders feel that this is a temporary phenomenon and supplies in the North and west will be much tighter as we move into summer.

The arrivals in Bihar are very small and the prices in Tamil Nadu are also stable indicating that the prices are likely to remain stable even as the new crop starts to come in.

Pearl millet prices are also higher than maize. Current prices are averaging $141 per MT, about 9% higher than the maize prices. Sorghum prices on the other hand are averaging about $170 per MT, about 32% higher than. Compared to last year the sorghum prices are higher by approximately 23%.

The prices in US on the other hand dropped substantially over lost week. Corn at CBOT for May was down by almost 7.48% to $87.20 per MT. The FOB value (US Gulf) also was down for April delivery to $103.75, while for May the FOB value was indicated at $104.55 per MT, which is almost $4 down from last week.

Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com

Mar 18, 2006