Commodity prices stable; World Avian Influenza update (with inputs from New York Times) and food safety

Commodity prices stable

The commodity prices in India over the week have remained stable, even as poultry industry is showing signs of revival.

Corn prices were up by almost $1.5 per MT over last week (1.2%) at $128.7 per MT but were still lower by $2.4 per MT (1.76%) over last year’s $131 per MT at the same time. The prices moved up in Maharashtra ($148 per MT from $123) and Rajasthan ($163 per Mt from $153), but dropped in Bihar ($120 per MT from $ 124) and Uttar Pradesh ($137 per MT from $147)

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices mover lower to $146.2 per MT, loss of $3 per MT (2%) over last week. The prices were also $1.1per MT lower than last year as well.

Prices of Sorghum (Jowar) were up by $1.75 per MT to $182 per Mt over last week’s $180.25 per MT. The prices were also lower by $8 per MT over last year $180 per MT.

Barley is the only coarse cereals, which is running higher than last years prices during the same time. The prices last year were $117 per MT, which, this year are ruling at $163 per MT, higher by almost 40%.

Prices in US moved up and corn closed at $101.67 for July 2006 delivery. Higher by almost $7 over last week’s close. The FOB value US gulf for July delivery was $116.60 per MT.

USDA came out with an updated WADSE report on Friday. The comments are as under:

COARSE GRAINS: The 2006/07 U.S. outlook for coarse grains includes decreased feed grain supplies, higher use, falling stocks, and higher prices. The 2006/07 corn crop is projected at 10.55 billion bushels (268 MMT), 5 percent below last year’s 282.25 MMT. Total corn supply, at 12.8 billion bushels (325.12 MMT), is down 3 percent as the smaller corn crop is only partially offset by higher beginning stocks.

Projected 2006/07 corn use expands 6 percent to a record 11.6 billion bushels (294.64 MMT). Domestic use for ethanol production increases 34 percent from last year to 2.15 billion bushels (54.16 MMT) while exports increase 6 percent to 2.15 billion bushels (54.16 MMT). The export increase is due to reduced foreign competition and lower global feed-quality wheat supplies. Ending stocks of 1.1 billion bushels are down by about half from year-earlier levels. The projected price range for corn is $2.25 to $2.65 per bushel ($88.56 – 104.30 per MT), compared with $1.95 to $2.05 ($76.75 – 80.68 per MT) for 2005/06. Projected stocks of sorghum, barley, and oats are below year-earlier levels, and prices for these crops are higher.

The 2006/07 global coarse grains outlook includes slightly lower production, increased consumption, and lower ending stocks. Smaller coarse grain crops in the United States more than offset higher foreign production. Production increases are significant for Argentina and EU-25. Global coarse grain trade is up slightly while consumption is up 2.7 percent. China's corn stocks continue to fall; global corn ending stocks drop 29 percent to 92 million tons, the lowest in more than 20 years.”

Detailed report can be seen at

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

World Avian Influenza update (with inputs from New York Times) and food safety

Over the last couple of weeks there have been no reports from the bird flu from Southeast Asia, where it first started.

Vietnam. Which had almost 50% of the human cased of H5NI in the world, has not had a single human and poultry case this year. Vietnam began vaccinating its chickens last summer. Thailand also has not reported any human case for 1 year and no poultry case for over 6 months now.

Different tactics, used in countries have worked well. While Vietnam began vaccinating all its 220 million chickens last summer, Thailand did not because it has a large poultry export industry, and other nations would have banned its birds indefinitely. (Vaccines can mask the virus instead of killing it.). Instead, Thailand culled wide areas around infected flocks, compensated farmers generously and deputized a volunteer in every village to report sick chickens.

In China, the reported human cases have remained low: 8 last year and 10 this year.
Perhaps more important, its poultry cases — which lead to human cases and increase the risk of a mutant pandemic strain — seem to be dropping.

According to the World Health Organization, China said it had outbreaks in 16 provinces in 2004. In 2005, it reported outbreaks in only 12 provinces, but one in November was so large that 2.5 million birds were culled to contain it.

After that, the Agriculture Ministry announced that it would vaccinate every domestic bird in China, which raises and consumes 14 billion chickens, ducks and geese each year. The official news agency reported about the same time that a fake flu vaccine, possibly with live virus in it, might have spread the disease.

While all is being done to contain the virus though vaccinations and culling, there still is a need to educate the producers on the bio-security aspects of poultry farming, which seems to have taken a back seat. Unplanned expansions, new farms coming up in close proximity to each other and unwanted movement of people and materials from one farm to other may be another cause. The consumers also need to be made aware about the Good Kitchen Practises and safety of food products that they consumer on a regular basis.

Over the last few months, the Council has been active in providing information on Food Safety issues on meat, but which can also be applied to other food products which are used by consumers. It not only meat which gets into the kitchen, but also other products like fruits, vegetables, milk. One the readers of the report has posted his comments on the food safety issues with milk, which can be read at the following link.

http://usgcindiamarketreport.blogspot.com/2006/05/corn-demand-losses-steam-for-time.html#comments

If you have any such comments, please feel free to post the same of the blog spot or send the same to me.

Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com

May 13, 2006