Maize availability - a big issue; Broilers in India – post AI episode

Maize availability - a big issue

Though the average price of maize at the market yard may not have gone up from last week’s Rs.6240 ($135.6) per MT, the availability of stocks sure is a major issue for the end users in non production areas like Gujarat, where average prices have moved up and delivered prices are close to Rs.7500 ($163) per MT. In the days to come the prices are likley to go up.

Prices in Bihar have also firmed up and are up from last weeks Rs.5610 ($122) per MT to Rs.5840 ($127) per Mt at the market yard. With renewed monsoon activity and heavy showers in South Maharashtra, Karnatak and in Andhra Pradesh, the likleyhood of standing crop getting affected is very high.

The prices of other coarse cereals, sorghum, bajra and barley have remained stable in the past week at Rs.7190 ($156.4) per MT, Rs.6430 ($139.8) per MT and Rs.6990 ($151.9) per MT respectively at the market yard. As the prices of sorghum is still about 15.3% higher than maize, the poultry sector is unable to utilize sorghum instaed of maize in the rations.

Prices at CBOT closed a $3.03 per MT higher than last week at $96.43 per MT for September delivery.

Due to heavy rains in the maize production areas, resowing may be required, which would also mean late harvest and lwo production. As the season would be delayed and arrivals would be only in November 2006, which is still 3 months from now. The price increase would be anybody’s guess.

While on one side there has been discussions about diversification in agriculture and farmers have been asked to move away from wheat – rice cultivation to oter crops, reports indicate that the situation for wheat is likely to worsen by 2012. GOI is contempelating schemes to bring in more land under wheat particularly in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar.

Broilers in India – post AI episode

Even though it has been over 5 months since the bird flu episode occurred in India, the poultry sector has not been able to come to terms with it. With losses being estimated at Rs.3000 crores ($0.65 billion), the industry which had placed 140 million broilers in Jan 2006, industry estimates suggest that the placement in March 2006 was down to 85 million broilers. The overall estimates for broiler placement for the financial year 2005-06 were pegged at 1694 million broilers was cut short to 1611 millions due to the bird flu episode. The growth which was estimated at 10.28% pre AI, is now 4.88%. There may still be time to cover the lost ground and partly cover some of the the losses in broiler placements and reach the end of 2005-06 level of 1694 million.

Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com

Aug 05, 2006