Commodity prices stable, but increase over the year
The average corn prices across the country remained stable at about Rs.6500 per Mt at the market yard. The prices were higher than last year by 9.1%. Taking the average prices over the year, Nov – Sept (11 month period), the average delivered price of maize in 2004-05 was Rs.6833 per MT, while in 2005-06 the prices increased to Rs.7321 per MT, an increase of over 7.21% in one year. This increase has surely increase the cost of production eggs and poultry meat and have reduced the profitability of the farmers in this one year, wherein the farmers also suffered a huge loss due to bird flue episode. The increased cost of production of end products is also an issue with the starch manufacturers, whose profitability would also be affected. There is also an indication that in order to cover the losses or keep the profits stable, sale price of the maize products (starch and other value added products) is increased, which will affect the other users also, like textile, pharma, candy, food, paper etc.
Though the market yard prices of barley were reported to be lower, some areas reported higher prices, indicating a higher trade margins due to slower deliveries into the market yards and a lower production. The prices this week indicate a upward trend and reports available indicate a higher price of Rs.7600 per MT. The prices are close to last year levels at this time of the year. The delivered prices thus would be close to Rs.9000 per MT, which is much higher than the anticipated price. Even though the barley consumption in brewery and beverages sector has grown significantly in the last few years, it is still lower than international standards.
Sorghum prices at the market yard have come down to Rs.7300 per MT, lower than last week’s prices by 7.6% and also lower than last year’s prices by 7.7%. the prices are still significantly higher than maize (12.3%).
Pearl Millet prices in this one week have come down to Rs.6200 per MT, about 4.3% lower than last week, and also 2.5% lower than last year.
The khariff (summer) crop for maize is estimated at 11 MMT and if the Rabi (winter) crop production is added (1.8 MMT), the total production for the year will be about 12.8 MMT as per GOI estimates. The end users sector is of the opinion that the khariff production of maize is about 9.45 MMT and addition of 1.8 MMT in Rabi would make the total of 11.25 MMT. The demand of maize in India is expected to be 13.86 MMT for the year 2006-07. The overall deficit based on industry and GOI production figures could be a low of 1.06 MMT to a high of 2.6 MMT, without taking into account exports to Nepal and Bangladesh.
With such a high demand and low availability the prices are expected to remain high over the next year as well, till steps are taken to stabilize the prices.
Prices of Corn at CBOT moved up by about $3 per MT over last week to 103.28 per MT.
The China Story – increasing corn consumption
China is expected to produce 142 MMT of corn this year, but its own consumption is likely to be much higher than anticipated leaving little for exports, as per the experts.
Some experts believe that the corn consumption in China will grow due to the demand from the industrial sector and the demand from the feed sector may stagnate.
The industrial processing capacity in China which was 50 MMT in 2005 is expected to increase to 70 MMT by 2006 end and 85 MMT by 2007.
Current consumption by industrial sector would be close to 30 MMT in the next year, and most of the new additions are due to new projects for biofuels (ethanol). A new project is likely to come up in Inner Mongolia (North China), which will process 1 MMT of corn a year to manufacture ethanol. Other products include Glycol production, processing 360,000 tons of corn in a year to produce 200,000 tons of glycol.
Demand for other corn-based products, such as High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) as a replacement of sugar is growing, leading to new projects. This is because Chinese become more health conscious and their standard of living rises.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 30, 2006
Saturday, September 30, 2006
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Maize Prices stable – but production estimated downward; USGC conducts interactive session on poultry marketing and packaging
Maize Prices stable – but production estimated downward
The maize prices in the last two weeks remained stable at about Rs.6500 per MT and are higher than last year’s prices by approximately 10%. The prices have come down mainly due to some new arrivals in the market yard and also the decision of the GOI to release maize stocks fort he poultry sector at subsidized rates.
Price in comparison to last year - Maize
(Rs./ton at Market Yard)
Sept 06 Sept 13 Sept 20 Sept 27
Sept 06 7404.5 6495.8 6504.8
Sept 05 6854.0 5929.4 5901.8 5947.8
% diff
over
last year8.0 9.6 10.2
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have also been stable at about Rs.6450 over the last two weeks, mainly because of the arrivals in North and Andhra Pradesh. The prices are also lower than last year’s prices by about 5.5%. In comparison with Maize, the price differential is just about 0.8%. (Pearl Millet prices are lower), making it a touch decision to use the commodity in poultry diets as use of the product tends to reduce the efficiency of production in layers and broilers, if not used properly.
Price in comparison to last year - Pearl Millet
(Rs. per MT at Market Yard)
Sept 06 Sept 13 Sept 20 Sept 27
Sept 06 6831.5 6420.2 6453.8
Sept 05 7038.0 5980.0 6831.0 6361.8
% diff
over
last year -2.9 7.4 -5.5
Grain Sorghum (Jowar) prices are stable at about Rs.7800 per MT, but the prices are still higher than last year by about 20%, mainly due to the crop being affected due to floods in growing areas. With the price differential between maize at sorghum at 21%, sorghum being priced higher than maize, it is difficult to use the commodity in poultry diets.
Price in comparison to last year - Sorghum
(Rs. per MT at the Market Yard)
Sept 06 Sept 13 Sept 20 Sept 27
Sept 06 8206.2 7773.1 7883.3
Sept 05 7498.0 7636.0 6559.6 7948.8
% diff
over
last year 9.4 1.8 20.2
Barley prices came down to almost Rs.6200 per MT on the average in the market yard, a drop of almost 21%. The prices are also lower than last year by almost 14%. But as the consumption will increase, it will be difficult to predict the movement of prices.
Price in comparison to last year - Barley
(Rs. per MT at Market Yard)
Sept 06 Sept 13 Sept 20 Sept 27
Sept 06 7834.9 7856.8 6204.0
Sept 05 7185.2 7465.8 7203.6 7304.8
% diff.
over
last year 9.0 5.2 -13.9
Government of India in its first advance estimates for the production of agriculture produce has predicted a drop in production of 105 MMT of food grains, including rice and coarse cereals. The production of coarse cereals is estimated to be 25 MMT, lower than production of last year by almost 2 MMT as per the GOI release. Maize production is estimated at 11 MMT, lower by almost 1.4 MMT. This production is estimated from 7.1 million hac of land with the productivity of 1.54 tons/ha.
GOI has fixed the target for the food grain production for 2006-07 at 220 MMT, which is about 8 – 10 MMT higher than what has been produced on an average over last few years. Most of the targeted increase (5-7 MMT) is for wheat.
The new reports indicate the production of corn in US is 282.31 MMT from 29.07 million ha (71.80 mill acres), with an average productivity of 9.71 tons/ha. Average productivity of corn in India is 6.3 times lower than US.
USGC conducts interactive session on poultry marketing and packaging
U S Grains Council’s has an initiative in India to assist the poultry sector to grow faster and make more profit though sale of hygienically processed chicken to the consumers. The council over the last two (2) years was assisting the chicken processors by providing them information regarding Good Manufacturing Practices, Good Hygienic Practices, Standard Operating Procedures, Standard Sanitary Operating Procedures and HACCP guidelines.
After the bird flue episode it was felt necessary that the sector can take this as an opportunity to market packaged chicken to the consumers at a right price and make them aware of the advantages of buying chicken that has been processed hygienically and packaged.
The council sponsored two eminent scientists from University of Arkansas, Dr.James Denton, Former Head of Centre of Excellence for Poultry Science and Dr.John Marcy, Poultry Extension Scientist. While both are food microbiologists, they have extensive experience in working with poultry meat companies in the US and finding solution to the various problems faced by the industry of packaging and marketing of chicken.
Dr.Denton and Dr.March conducted a bench marking exercise for the products available in some of the key markets and met with the processors and their production and marketing staff and shared ideas on packaging solutions which will help them in moving forward.
One of the major issues discussed was the shelf life of chilled chicken. While in India the shelf life of chilled chicken is 3 days (72 hours), in USA the chilled chicken is safe to consume even after 14 days. This is only possible because of better packaging and maintaining a cold chain. The chilled chicken is kept at -2 deg C in storage and at shops at 1 deg C, which help is keeping the microbial growth in check. In India in most cases chilled chicken is placed on the market shelf where the temperature is 2-4 deg C.
As the retailing sector develops, there is hope that the demand from the retailers for better quality products will help in the development of the processing sector. Reliance Retail, Spensers, Metro Whole Sale have already plans to set up large format stores in major cities across the country which the sector believes would change the way processed chilled chicken is sold in the country.
The seminars conducted by the Council were well attended and one of the conclusions of the seminars was a need for a better interface with the consumers and spreading the message of goodness of processed chicken through generic promotion through cooking competitions, fliers, bill boards etc.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 27, 2006
The maize prices in the last two weeks remained stable at about Rs.6500 per MT and are higher than last year’s prices by approximately 10%. The prices have come down mainly due to some new arrivals in the market yard and also the decision of the GOI to release maize stocks fort he poultry sector at subsidized rates.
Price in comparison to last year - Maize
(Rs./ton at Market Yard)
Sept 06 Sept 13 Sept 20 Sept 27
Sept 06 7404.5 6495.8 6504.8
Sept 05 6854.0 5929.4 5901.8 5947.8
% diff
over
last year8.0 9.6 10.2
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have also been stable at about Rs.6450 over the last two weeks, mainly because of the arrivals in North and Andhra Pradesh. The prices are also lower than last year’s prices by about 5.5%. In comparison with Maize, the price differential is just about 0.8%. (Pearl Millet prices are lower), making it a touch decision to use the commodity in poultry diets as use of the product tends to reduce the efficiency of production in layers and broilers, if not used properly.
Price in comparison to last year - Pearl Millet
(Rs. per MT at Market Yard)
Sept 06 Sept 13 Sept 20 Sept 27
Sept 06 6831.5 6420.2 6453.8
Sept 05 7038.0 5980.0 6831.0 6361.8
% diff
over
last year -2.9 7.4 -5.5
Grain Sorghum (Jowar) prices are stable at about Rs.7800 per MT, but the prices are still higher than last year by about 20%, mainly due to the crop being affected due to floods in growing areas. With the price differential between maize at sorghum at 21%, sorghum being priced higher than maize, it is difficult to use the commodity in poultry diets.
Price in comparison to last year - Sorghum
(Rs. per MT at the Market Yard)
Sept 06 Sept 13 Sept 20 Sept 27
Sept 06 8206.2 7773.1 7883.3
Sept 05 7498.0 7636.0 6559.6 7948.8
% diff
over
last year 9.4 1.8 20.2
Barley prices came down to almost Rs.6200 per MT on the average in the market yard, a drop of almost 21%. The prices are also lower than last year by almost 14%. But as the consumption will increase, it will be difficult to predict the movement of prices.
Price in comparison to last year - Barley
(Rs. per MT at Market Yard)
Sept 06 Sept 13 Sept 20 Sept 27
Sept 06 7834.9 7856.8 6204.0
Sept 05 7185.2 7465.8 7203.6 7304.8
% diff.
over
last year 9.0 5.2 -13.9
Government of India in its first advance estimates for the production of agriculture produce has predicted a drop in production of 105 MMT of food grains, including rice and coarse cereals. The production of coarse cereals is estimated to be 25 MMT, lower than production of last year by almost 2 MMT as per the GOI release. Maize production is estimated at 11 MMT, lower by almost 1.4 MMT. This production is estimated from 7.1 million hac of land with the productivity of 1.54 tons/ha.
GOI has fixed the target for the food grain production for 2006-07 at 220 MMT, which is about 8 – 10 MMT higher than what has been produced on an average over last few years. Most of the targeted increase (5-7 MMT) is for wheat.
The new reports indicate the production of corn in US is 282.31 MMT from 29.07 million ha (71.80 mill acres), with an average productivity of 9.71 tons/ha. Average productivity of corn in India is 6.3 times lower than US.
USGC conducts interactive session on poultry marketing and packaging
U S Grains Council’s has an initiative in India to assist the poultry sector to grow faster and make more profit though sale of hygienically processed chicken to the consumers. The council over the last two (2) years was assisting the chicken processors by providing them information regarding Good Manufacturing Practices, Good Hygienic Practices, Standard Operating Procedures, Standard Sanitary Operating Procedures and HACCP guidelines.
After the bird flue episode it was felt necessary that the sector can take this as an opportunity to market packaged chicken to the consumers at a right price and make them aware of the advantages of buying chicken that has been processed hygienically and packaged.
The council sponsored two eminent scientists from University of Arkansas, Dr.James Denton, Former Head of Centre of Excellence for Poultry Science and Dr.John Marcy, Poultry Extension Scientist. While both are food microbiologists, they have extensive experience in working with poultry meat companies in the US and finding solution to the various problems faced by the industry of packaging and marketing of chicken.
Dr.Denton and Dr.March conducted a bench marking exercise for the products available in some of the key markets and met with the processors and their production and marketing staff and shared ideas on packaging solutions which will help them in moving forward.
One of the major issues discussed was the shelf life of chilled chicken. While in India the shelf life of chilled chicken is 3 days (72 hours), in USA the chilled chicken is safe to consume even after 14 days. This is only possible because of better packaging and maintaining a cold chain. The chilled chicken is kept at -2 deg C in storage and at shops at 1 deg C, which help is keeping the microbial growth in check. In India in most cases chilled chicken is placed on the market shelf where the temperature is 2-4 deg C.
As the retailing sector develops, there is hope that the demand from the retailers for better quality products will help in the development of the processing sector. Reliance Retail, Spensers, Metro Whole Sale have already plans to set up large format stores in major cities across the country which the sector believes would change the way processed chilled chicken is sold in the country.
The seminars conducted by the Council were well attended and one of the conclusions of the seminars was a need for a better interface with the consumers and spreading the message of goodness of processed chicken through generic promotion through cooking competitions, fliers, bill boards etc.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 27, 2006
Saturday, September 16, 2006
Maize Prices decline – but are still higher; WASDE Report projects high corn production and high exports
Maize Prices decline – but are still higher
As the corn from the go-downs of Food Corporation India has started to trickle in the market, the average prices in the market yard have declined from 7400 to 6495, almost 12.2% in last one week and reached mid August 2006 levels. But averages can be deceptive. The corn release was announced in Andhra Pradesh (118,900 tons), Tamil Nadu (96,500 tons), Maharashtra (45,000 tons), Karnataka, Orissa, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Goa (89600 tons collectively). The prices are still high in Uttar Pradesh (Rs.6580), Maharashtra (Rs.7520), Bihar (Rs.6500), Gujarat (Rs.7425), Rajasthan (Rs.7600).
Reports from Bihar indicate extensive damage to stored corn due to improper storage. Wet, high moisture grain in gunny bags is liable to get heated, germinate and spoil and can be the major source of Aflatoxin, which can cause havoc in the poultry and starch sectors alike.
There are reports from Maharashtra that new corn has started to arrive is some markets, but prices are ranging from Rs.6900 to Rs.7400 per ton delivered.
Arrivals of Bajra (pearl Millet) have started in states of Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka and Rajasthan and the prices have started to come down. Average price in the market is Rs.6402 per MT, lower by 6.6% than last week. But the prices are also lower than corn by 1.2%. The prices are higher than last year by 7.2%
Sorghum (Jowar) prices are also down to Rs.7780 per MT at the market yard, and are lower than last week by 5.2%. The prices are similar to last year, but are higher than corn prices by approximately 19.7%.
Barley prices have remained stable and are at Rs.7860 per MT and are higher than last year by about 3%.
Prices in CBOT settled at $95.10 per MT. FOB price, US Gulf were at $120 - $123 from Sept – Dec deliveries. Reports indicate that the freight rates are high and would continue to be move up, till they find resistance.
WASDE Report projects high corn production and high exports
Tha latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report out on Sept 12, 2006, project US corn production at 279.4 MMT, almost 3.5 MMT highr than the last month’s estimate. His would the the second largest corn crop in US history. With china out of the market and US being the only residual supplier of corn in the world, report projects that exports of corn to be about 57.15 MMT, about 2.5 MMT higher than the august estimate. As per FAS report, US would dominate the market with 71% market share in trade, while Argentina would share 14% of the world market.
China though is expected to produce a bumper crop, may just have 5% share in the world market, due to its continuous high dometic demand for the livestock and poultry sectors which are experiencing rapid growth and industrial use. A high meat consumption is largely attributed to higher incomes and urbanization. In Brazil, a similar strong domestic growth is projected to limit exports. Argentine crop would be available for exports only in March 2007.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 15, 2006
As the corn from the go-downs of Food Corporation India has started to trickle in the market, the average prices in the market yard have declined from 7400 to 6495, almost 12.2% in last one week and reached mid August 2006 levels. But averages can be deceptive. The corn release was announced in Andhra Pradesh (118,900 tons), Tamil Nadu (96,500 tons), Maharashtra (45,000 tons), Karnataka, Orissa, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Goa (89600 tons collectively). The prices are still high in Uttar Pradesh (Rs.6580), Maharashtra (Rs.7520), Bihar (Rs.6500), Gujarat (Rs.7425), Rajasthan (Rs.7600).
Reports from Bihar indicate extensive damage to stored corn due to improper storage. Wet, high moisture grain in gunny bags is liable to get heated, germinate and spoil and can be the major source of Aflatoxin, which can cause havoc in the poultry and starch sectors alike.
There are reports from Maharashtra that new corn has started to arrive is some markets, but prices are ranging from Rs.6900 to Rs.7400 per ton delivered.
Arrivals of Bajra (pearl Millet) have started in states of Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka and Rajasthan and the prices have started to come down. Average price in the market is Rs.6402 per MT, lower by 6.6% than last week. But the prices are also lower than corn by 1.2%. The prices are higher than last year by 7.2%
Sorghum (Jowar) prices are also down to Rs.7780 per MT at the market yard, and are lower than last week by 5.2%. The prices are similar to last year, but are higher than corn prices by approximately 19.7%.
Barley prices have remained stable and are at Rs.7860 per MT and are higher than last year by about 3%.
Prices in CBOT settled at $95.10 per MT. FOB price, US Gulf were at $120 - $123 from Sept – Dec deliveries. Reports indicate that the freight rates are high and would continue to be move up, till they find resistance.
WASDE Report projects high corn production and high exports
Tha latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report out on Sept 12, 2006, project US corn production at 279.4 MMT, almost 3.5 MMT highr than the last month’s estimate. His would the the second largest corn crop in US history. With china out of the market and US being the only residual supplier of corn in the world, report projects that exports of corn to be about 57.15 MMT, about 2.5 MMT higher than the august estimate. As per FAS report, US would dominate the market with 71% market share in trade, while Argentina would share 14% of the world market.
China though is expected to produce a bumper crop, may just have 5% share in the world market, due to its continuous high dometic demand for the livestock and poultry sectors which are experiencing rapid growth and industrial use. A high meat consumption is largely attributed to higher incomes and urbanization. In Brazil, a similar strong domestic growth is projected to limit exports. Argentine crop would be available for exports only in March 2007.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 15, 2006
Saturday, September 09, 2006
Maize Prices show unprecedented increase; Learning about Avian Influenza?; Flies are responsible for the spread of Campylobacter
Maize Prices show unprecedented increase
Even after the release of 350,000 tons of maize to the poultry sector at subsidized rates, the prices of maize are increasing relentlessly. Maize prices have risen to all time high all across the country. The average price during the mid week was Rs.7402.5 per MT at the market yard, about 6% higher than last week’s Rs.6982 and 8% over last year’s Rs.6854 per MT. In the last one month the prices at the market yard have gone from Rs.6257 to the current levels, an increase of 18.3% which has not been recorded any time. The poultry sector which provides self employment opportunities to many rural youth stands on the crossroads today due to such price increase on the basic raw material which is needed to feed the birds for meat or egg production.
Grain Sorghum (Jowar) average prices have increased from Rs.7415.6 per MT last week to Rs.8206.2 per MT, an increase of 10.66%. The prices are higher by 9.44% over last year’s Rs.7498 per MT. The prices are higher by approximately 14% over last month’s Rs.7194 per MT at the market yard.
Barley prices are also up from Rs.6980.5 per MT last week to Rs.7834.9 per MT, an increase of 12.22%. The price one month ago, first week of Aug were ruling at Rs.Rs.6987.4 per MT at the market yard, an increase of 12.12%. Over thel last year, the prices are higher by 9.44%. In the US 93% of the crop has been harvested.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) is the probably the only commodity whose prices have come down over last week’s Rs.6941 per MT to Rs.6831 per MT this week, a decrease of 1.5%. The prices are also down from last year’s Rs.7038 per MT by 2.9%, but are higher by 6.6% over last month’s Rs.6407 per MT.
This is the fourth consecutive week, when commodity prices have shown an upward trend, especially maize which is the basic raw material for the poultry and the starch sector. Since the first week of April 2006, when the average price of maize at the market yard was Rs.5810.4 per MT, the prices have increased by 27.7%. The prices are higher than the Minimum Support Price announced by GOI by 37% and all this benefit of high price does not accrue to the maize farmer.
Corn prices at CBOT were $91.15 and $96.82 per MT for Sept and December Delivery. The FOB Gulf prices for the months of October and Dec were $123.62 & $124.40 per MT respectively.
What is the world doing to learn about Avian Influenza? (taken from various sources)
In order the gather all the information about the way the Avian Influenza spreads, FAO has joined hands with U S Geological Survey (USGS), Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and Mongolian Academy of Sciences (MAS) in one of its kind surveillance project, The project, part of the Wild Bird Global Avian Influenza Network for Surveillance (GAINS) programme funded by USAID will aim to attach GPS transmitters to wild whooper swans in an effort to track the birds to their wintering grounds.
The unique study will shed light on how wild birds may be involved in the spread of avian influenza and provide information on migration routes and inform governments about potential threats from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
The whooper swan locations are being updated twice weekly on the website:
http://www.werc.usgs.gov/sattrack/
The website also includes access to the data in Google Earth format. A comprehensive database of information on international wild bird avian influenza surveillance and migratory bird activity is available on the WCS website at http://www.gains.org.
While in Mongolia, Satellites help scientists track AI, in Thailand, the Department of Livestock Development has plans to use Radio frequency identification (RFID) system to ensure the world about the systems in place in Thailand. The pilot project will be on 25 poultry farms to start with and is budgeted at about $2 million. The RFID system will help convince the export market that the Thai companies have high standards and there is traceability system in place. The Thailand's animal identification system is expected to comply with the International Committee for Animal Recording (ICAR) and once the RFID implementation is complete, the consumers can be encouraged to choose the certified food products
Until now, Latin America, which is the home to a largest portion of the world’s broiler population has been free of Avian Influenza, which spread in Asia in 2003 and also spread to other regions of the world including Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
FAO in order to create awareness about the disease, its spread and also to keep it out of Latin America and the Caribbean has published a new handbook targeted especially to the region's small-scale poultry farmers.
Guide to the prevention and control of avian flu in small-scale poultry farming in Latin America and the Caribbean, is available on the net in Spanish and stresses the measures needed to ensure on-farm bio-security and prevent contact between domestic poultry and potentially infected wild birds.
The information contained in the book is specifically designed to meet the needs of small-scale and farmyard poultry production units and the handbook stresses simple and affordable methods to prevent and control the disease.
Flies are responsible for the spread of Campylobacter
In New Zealand, experts and Medical investigators have blamed the recent increase in the incidence of Campylobacter-infected chicken on flies. They have also said that flies and cattle close to cities or in area are responsible for the Campylobacter contamination in Chicken. Does it sound familiar? In India, Live chicken shops in Delhi, Bombay or any other metro, cattle roaming the streets, Gazipur Milk Colony close to Gazipur Poultry Market on National Highway 24.
The investigators have concluded that the sporadic nature of Campylobacter illnesses and the seasonal pattern of infection, which peaks in warmer months, indicate that chicken meat itself was not the major source of infection. The flies were the link between environmental sources of Campylobacter and food. In New Zealand, the primary source of infection is thought to be the faeces of dairy and beef cattle. It was the proximity to rural environments that allowed flies to transmit the bacteria to food, particularly during the warmer months when they are most active.
The Campylobacter bacteria is transferred through fly faecal deposits on common surfaces such as hand rails and door handles. Campylobacter deposited on fingertips can survive for at least one hour, and have been recovered from dry surfaces 24 hours after being deposited.
In August a study conducted at Otago University, suggested that 90 percent of fresh chicken sold was contaminated with Campylobacter.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 09, 2006
Even after the release of 350,000 tons of maize to the poultry sector at subsidized rates, the prices of maize are increasing relentlessly. Maize prices have risen to all time high all across the country. The average price during the mid week was Rs.7402.5 per MT at the market yard, about 6% higher than last week’s Rs.6982 and 8% over last year’s Rs.6854 per MT. In the last one month the prices at the market yard have gone from Rs.6257 to the current levels, an increase of 18.3% which has not been recorded any time. The poultry sector which provides self employment opportunities to many rural youth stands on the crossroads today due to such price increase on the basic raw material which is needed to feed the birds for meat or egg production.
Grain Sorghum (Jowar) average prices have increased from Rs.7415.6 per MT last week to Rs.8206.2 per MT, an increase of 10.66%. The prices are higher by 9.44% over last year’s Rs.7498 per MT. The prices are higher by approximately 14% over last month’s Rs.7194 per MT at the market yard.
Barley prices are also up from Rs.6980.5 per MT last week to Rs.7834.9 per MT, an increase of 12.22%. The price one month ago, first week of Aug were ruling at Rs.Rs.6987.4 per MT at the market yard, an increase of 12.12%. Over thel last year, the prices are higher by 9.44%. In the US 93% of the crop has been harvested.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) is the probably the only commodity whose prices have come down over last week’s Rs.6941 per MT to Rs.6831 per MT this week, a decrease of 1.5%. The prices are also down from last year’s Rs.7038 per MT by 2.9%, but are higher by 6.6% over last month’s Rs.6407 per MT.
This is the fourth consecutive week, when commodity prices have shown an upward trend, especially maize which is the basic raw material for the poultry and the starch sector. Since the first week of April 2006, when the average price of maize at the market yard was Rs.5810.4 per MT, the prices have increased by 27.7%. The prices are higher than the Minimum Support Price announced by GOI by 37% and all this benefit of high price does not accrue to the maize farmer.
Corn prices at CBOT were $91.15 and $96.82 per MT for Sept and December Delivery. The FOB Gulf prices for the months of October and Dec were $123.62 & $124.40 per MT respectively.
What is the world doing to learn about Avian Influenza? (taken from various sources)
In order the gather all the information about the way the Avian Influenza spreads, FAO has joined hands with U S Geological Survey (USGS), Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and Mongolian Academy of Sciences (MAS) in one of its kind surveillance project, The project, part of the Wild Bird Global Avian Influenza Network for Surveillance (GAINS) programme funded by USAID will aim to attach GPS transmitters to wild whooper swans in an effort to track the birds to their wintering grounds.
The unique study will shed light on how wild birds may be involved in the spread of avian influenza and provide information on migration routes and inform governments about potential threats from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
The whooper swan locations are being updated twice weekly on the website:
http://www.werc.usgs.gov/sattrack/
The website also includes access to the data in Google Earth format. A comprehensive database of information on international wild bird avian influenza surveillance and migratory bird activity is available on the WCS website at http://www.gains.org.
While in Mongolia, Satellites help scientists track AI, in Thailand, the Department of Livestock Development has plans to use Radio frequency identification (RFID) system to ensure the world about the systems in place in Thailand. The pilot project will be on 25 poultry farms to start with and is budgeted at about $2 million. The RFID system will help convince the export market that the Thai companies have high standards and there is traceability system in place. The Thailand's animal identification system is expected to comply with the International Committee for Animal Recording (ICAR) and once the RFID implementation is complete, the consumers can be encouraged to choose the certified food products
Until now, Latin America, which is the home to a largest portion of the world’s broiler population has been free of Avian Influenza, which spread in Asia in 2003 and also spread to other regions of the world including Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
FAO in order to create awareness about the disease, its spread and also to keep it out of Latin America and the Caribbean has published a new handbook targeted especially to the region's small-scale poultry farmers.
Guide to the prevention and control of avian flu in small-scale poultry farming in Latin America and the Caribbean, is available on the net in Spanish and stresses the measures needed to ensure on-farm bio-security and prevent contact between domestic poultry and potentially infected wild birds.
The information contained in the book is specifically designed to meet the needs of small-scale and farmyard poultry production units and the handbook stresses simple and affordable methods to prevent and control the disease.
Flies are responsible for the spread of Campylobacter
In New Zealand, experts and Medical investigators have blamed the recent increase in the incidence of Campylobacter-infected chicken on flies. They have also said that flies and cattle close to cities or in area are responsible for the Campylobacter contamination in Chicken. Does it sound familiar? In India, Live chicken shops in Delhi, Bombay or any other metro, cattle roaming the streets, Gazipur Milk Colony close to Gazipur Poultry Market on National Highway 24.
The investigators have concluded that the sporadic nature of Campylobacter illnesses and the seasonal pattern of infection, which peaks in warmer months, indicate that chicken meat itself was not the major source of infection. The flies were the link between environmental sources of Campylobacter and food. In New Zealand, the primary source of infection is thought to be the faeces of dairy and beef cattle. It was the proximity to rural environments that allowed flies to transmit the bacteria to food, particularly during the warmer months when they are most active.
The Campylobacter bacteria is transferred through fly faecal deposits on common surfaces such as hand rails and door handles. Campylobacter deposited on fingertips can survive for at least one hour, and have been recovered from dry surfaces 24 hours after being deposited.
In August a study conducted at Otago University, suggested that 90 percent of fresh chicken sold was contaminated with Campylobacter.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 09, 2006
Saturday, September 02, 2006
Maize Prices remain high; The ethanol debate; USDA report on the Future of Agricultural Biotechnology
Maize Prices remain high
The maize prices have remained on an upswing for third week in a row. The average price of maize at the market yard was Rs.6990 ($151.8) per MT, slightly higher than last week’s Rs.6960 ($151.3) per MT. The price is also higher than last year’s price by approximately 13.42%. In the history the prices of maize have not gone up to this level and not have the end user sectors have been in such a crisis before. The overall growth of the poultry sector is affected due to the bird flu episode and now the high ingredient price of feed ingredients, particularly maize and its non availability.
Average Sorghum prices have also shot up from last week’s Rs.6860 ($149) to Rs.7790 ($169.31) per MT and increase of 13.36%. The prices are also higher than last year’s price by 13.3%. Average Sorghum prices are still higher than maize by 6.4%, which is still limiting its use in poultry rations.
Pearl Millet (Bajra), prices increased from Rs.6540 ($142.1) to Rs.6940 ($150.91) per MT, an increase of 6.2% over last week. The prices are also higher than last year by 7%, but are lower than maize by 0.4%.
Prices of Barley are the once one’s that have come down from last week’s Rs.7240 ($157.4) to Rs.6980 ($151.75) per MT, a reduction of 3.6%. The prices though are still higher than last year’s price at the same time by 8%.
In the current scenario when availability of the basic raw material for poultry and starch mills is very poor and prices high, it will have a cascading affect on the value added products and the industries that use these products. Specifically paper, food, packaging, textiles, candy, pharma and healthcare which use products from the starch sector are likely to get affected.
Profarm, a US consulting company has estimated the US crop at 275 MMT, with an average productivity if 3.84 tons/acre, while USDA estimates the crop to be 278 MMT, with an average productivity of 3.86 tons/acre. These are still estimates and within the next 30 days a much clear picture of the production will emerge as the harvest starts.
In China the production of maize for the year 2006 estimated at 142 MMT and the demand is expected to be about 135 MMT. This is based on estimates of the growth of the industrial sector at 30% and poultry sector at 4%.
China, which is currently importing maize from US, may not be in the market for export of maize in years to come, due to the increased demand.
Prices in US are slightly up, and CBOT closed at $90.52 per MT for September delivery. December delivery was also slightly up from last week to $96.66 per MT. The FOB value of Corn from US Gulf has gone up to $120 per MT for September delivery, $123.10 per MT for October delivery and $123.90 per MT for December delivery. The ocean freight rates at the moment are also running very high.
The ethanol debate
The amount of U.S. maize utilized in ethanol has more than doubled in the past five years, rising from 17.2 MMT in 2001 to 36.32 MMT in 2005. The ethanol industry processed a record 13% of the domestic maize crop last year, which in 2006 is likely to increase to 40 MMT. In terms of the usage it ranks behind only feed/industrial (55%) and exports (17%).
The reason for US going ahead with the ethanol in a big way is mainly to reduce its dependence on foreign crude oil. The numbers are surely going to be higher in the next couple of years as more plants come online.
A study by the researchers from the University of Minnesota describes maize ethanol as a "first generation" bio-fuel that produces about 25% more energy than is needed to grow the crops and turn them into biofuels. The study is more favorable toward maize ethanol than several previous studies, which claim that it takes more energy to produce maize ethanol than the energy it provides. But researchers in the University of Minnesota study maintain that maize ethanol has its limitations, noting that if every acre of maize in the U.S. was earmarked for ethanol production, it would still only supply about 12% of U.S. motoring fuel.
Although more than 60% of the world’s ethanol is currently made from sugar, and cellulose is being touted as the future of the industry, experts say demand for grain-based ethanol will continue to grow.
The rapidly growing U.S. fuel ethanol industry has the capacity to distill 4.8 billion gallons (18.6 billion liters) of the motor fuel this year, mostly from corn (maize). Federal law sets a target of using 7.5 billion gallons (28.4 billion liters) of renewable fuels annually by 2012.
The biotech advisory group to USDA in its report has stated that in near future crops with energy-specific traits may be developed to help meet the growing demands for renewable alternative fuels.
It said genetic engineering could be used to add traits to food crops, such as corn and soybeans, and nonfood crops, like grasses and trees, to enhance energy production. In addition the bioenergy uses of the transgenic crops will be beneficial to the consumers on a large scale and the benefits will be visible.
USDA report on the Future of Agricultural Biotechnology
A report entitled "Opportunities and Challenges in Agricultural Biotechnology: The Decade Ahead" prepared by USDA's Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture (AC21) was out this week.
The new varieties were intended to provide increased productivity, profitability, and improved environmental management (e.g., reduced pesticide use and expanded conservation tillage). Most of the new varieties were developed to be incorporated into existing undifferentiated commodities.
In the United States, these transgenic varieties are largely undifferentiated and fully integrated into commodity markets. In 2005, 52% of corn, 87% of soybeans, and 79% of cotton planted in the United States was genetically engineered, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service. As per ISAAA statistics, in addition to the above, in 2005 transgenic crops were planted globally on about 222 million acres, roughly 5.8% of the estimated 3.8 billion acres devoted to crops. The report cites that the transgenic varieties thus far in the marketplace have been beneficial to farmers and the environment, but have not provided marketing advantages to food retailers or improved nutrition or taste to attract consumers.
The report also discusses the future and say’s that it is impossible to predict exactly which new modern biotechnology-derived plants or animals will be ready for the marketplace over the next decade. Some possibilities that have been cites in the report are:
• Genetically engineered plant varieties that provide improved human nutrition (e.g., soybeans enriched in omega-3 fatty acids)
• Products designed for use in improved animal feeds (providing better nutritional balance by increasing the concentration of essential amino acids often deficient in some feed components, increased nutrient density, or more efficient utilization of nutrients such as phosphate that could provide environmental benefits)
• Crops resistant to drought and other environmental stresses such as salinity
• Crops resistant to pests and diseases (e.g., fusarium-resistant wheat; chestnut-blight resistant chestnut; plum pox resistance in stone fruit; various insect resistant crops)
• Additional crops containing a number of transgenic traits incorporated in the same plant (stacked traits)
• Crops engineered to produce pharmaceuticals, such as vaccines and antibodies
• Crops engineered for particular industrial uses (e.g., crops having improved processing attributes such as increased starch content, producing useful enzymes that can be extracted for downstream industrial processes, or modified to have higher content of an energy-rich starting material such as oil for improved utilization as biofuel)
• Transgenic animals for food, or for production of pharmaceuticals or industrial products (e.g., transgenic salmon engineered for increased growth rate to maturity, transgenic goats producing human serum factors in their milk, and pigs producing the enzyme phytase in their saliva for improved nutrient utilization and manure with reduced phosphorus content).
The report is also critical of the fact that though the new technology offers scope and safe, it requires countries to enact regulations to manage the products. Lack of information at times would lead to a situation which will hamper some countries and its farmers and people to reap the benefits of the technology.
The report also points the fact that the “first-generation” transgenic products developed in the United States have now been adopted by farmers in other nations, including developing nations; and the new transgenic plant varieties intended for food use over the next few years are likely emerge from the developing world, from countries like China and India. For example, if transgenic rice varieties (probably insect-resistant varieties) that have been developed or are being developed are commercialized, this could have a significant impact on the global genetic engineering debate because large populations of humans will be consuming a staple transgenic whole food.
The report can be found on the web on USDA site. You may follow the link to given below.
http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_1OB?contentidonly=true&contentid=AC21Reports.xml">http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_1OB?contentidonly=true&contentid=AC21Reports.xml">http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_1OB?contentidonly=true&contentid=AC21Reports.xml
Thinking more about this, most people are looking for healthy foods, and it may just be possible that the technology will allow scientists to make food products and our favourite fatty food, which we would have without guilt; or if people don’t like broccoli, it may be possible to extract its cancer fighting nutrients and put them in an APPLE.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 02, 2006
The maize prices have remained on an upswing for third week in a row. The average price of maize at the market yard was Rs.6990 ($151.8) per MT, slightly higher than last week’s Rs.6960 ($151.3) per MT. The price is also higher than last year’s price by approximately 13.42%. In the history the prices of maize have not gone up to this level and not have the end user sectors have been in such a crisis before. The overall growth of the poultry sector is affected due to the bird flu episode and now the high ingredient price of feed ingredients, particularly maize and its non availability.
Average Sorghum prices have also shot up from last week’s Rs.6860 ($149) to Rs.7790 ($169.31) per MT and increase of 13.36%. The prices are also higher than last year’s price by 13.3%. Average Sorghum prices are still higher than maize by 6.4%, which is still limiting its use in poultry rations.
Pearl Millet (Bajra), prices increased from Rs.6540 ($142.1) to Rs.6940 ($150.91) per MT, an increase of 6.2% over last week. The prices are also higher than last year by 7%, but are lower than maize by 0.4%.
Prices of Barley are the once one’s that have come down from last week’s Rs.7240 ($157.4) to Rs.6980 ($151.75) per MT, a reduction of 3.6%. The prices though are still higher than last year’s price at the same time by 8%.
In the current scenario when availability of the basic raw material for poultry and starch mills is very poor and prices high, it will have a cascading affect on the value added products and the industries that use these products. Specifically paper, food, packaging, textiles, candy, pharma and healthcare which use products from the starch sector are likely to get affected.
Profarm, a US consulting company has estimated the US crop at 275 MMT, with an average productivity if 3.84 tons/acre, while USDA estimates the crop to be 278 MMT, with an average productivity of 3.86 tons/acre. These are still estimates and within the next 30 days a much clear picture of the production will emerge as the harvest starts.
In China the production of maize for the year 2006 estimated at 142 MMT and the demand is expected to be about 135 MMT. This is based on estimates of the growth of the industrial sector at 30% and poultry sector at 4%.
China, which is currently importing maize from US, may not be in the market for export of maize in years to come, due to the increased demand.
Prices in US are slightly up, and CBOT closed at $90.52 per MT for September delivery. December delivery was also slightly up from last week to $96.66 per MT. The FOB value of Corn from US Gulf has gone up to $120 per MT for September delivery, $123.10 per MT for October delivery and $123.90 per MT for December delivery. The ocean freight rates at the moment are also running very high.
The ethanol debate
The amount of U.S. maize utilized in ethanol has more than doubled in the past five years, rising from 17.2 MMT in 2001 to 36.32 MMT in 2005. The ethanol industry processed a record 13% of the domestic maize crop last year, which in 2006 is likely to increase to 40 MMT. In terms of the usage it ranks behind only feed/industrial (55%) and exports (17%).
The reason for US going ahead with the ethanol in a big way is mainly to reduce its dependence on foreign crude oil. The numbers are surely going to be higher in the next couple of years as more plants come online.
A study by the researchers from the University of Minnesota describes maize ethanol as a "first generation" bio-fuel that produces about 25% more energy than is needed to grow the crops and turn them into biofuels. The study is more favorable toward maize ethanol than several previous studies, which claim that it takes more energy to produce maize ethanol than the energy it provides. But researchers in the University of Minnesota study maintain that maize ethanol has its limitations, noting that if every acre of maize in the U.S. was earmarked for ethanol production, it would still only supply about 12% of U.S. motoring fuel.
Although more than 60% of the world’s ethanol is currently made from sugar, and cellulose is being touted as the future of the industry, experts say demand for grain-based ethanol will continue to grow.
The rapidly growing U.S. fuel ethanol industry has the capacity to distill 4.8 billion gallons (18.6 billion liters) of the motor fuel this year, mostly from corn (maize). Federal law sets a target of using 7.5 billion gallons (28.4 billion liters) of renewable fuels annually by 2012.
The biotech advisory group to USDA in its report has stated that in near future crops with energy-specific traits may be developed to help meet the growing demands for renewable alternative fuels.
It said genetic engineering could be used to add traits to food crops, such as corn and soybeans, and nonfood crops, like grasses and trees, to enhance energy production. In addition the bioenergy uses of the transgenic crops will be beneficial to the consumers on a large scale and the benefits will be visible.
USDA report on the Future of Agricultural Biotechnology
A report entitled "Opportunities and Challenges in Agricultural Biotechnology: The Decade Ahead" prepared by USDA's Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture (AC21) was out this week.
The new varieties were intended to provide increased productivity, profitability, and improved environmental management (e.g., reduced pesticide use and expanded conservation tillage). Most of the new varieties were developed to be incorporated into existing undifferentiated commodities.
In the United States, these transgenic varieties are largely undifferentiated and fully integrated into commodity markets. In 2005, 52% of corn, 87% of soybeans, and 79% of cotton planted in the United States was genetically engineered, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service. As per ISAAA statistics, in addition to the above, in 2005 transgenic crops were planted globally on about 222 million acres, roughly 5.8% of the estimated 3.8 billion acres devoted to crops. The report cites that the transgenic varieties thus far in the marketplace have been beneficial to farmers and the environment, but have not provided marketing advantages to food retailers or improved nutrition or taste to attract consumers.
The report also discusses the future and say’s that it is impossible to predict exactly which new modern biotechnology-derived plants or animals will be ready for the marketplace over the next decade. Some possibilities that have been cites in the report are:
• Genetically engineered plant varieties that provide improved human nutrition (e.g., soybeans enriched in omega-3 fatty acids)
• Products designed for use in improved animal feeds (providing better nutritional balance by increasing the concentration of essential amino acids often deficient in some feed components, increased nutrient density, or more efficient utilization of nutrients such as phosphate that could provide environmental benefits)
• Crops resistant to drought and other environmental stresses such as salinity
• Crops resistant to pests and diseases (e.g., fusarium-resistant wheat; chestnut-blight resistant chestnut; plum pox resistance in stone fruit; various insect resistant crops)
• Additional crops containing a number of transgenic traits incorporated in the same plant (stacked traits)
• Crops engineered to produce pharmaceuticals, such as vaccines and antibodies
• Crops engineered for particular industrial uses (e.g., crops having improved processing attributes such as increased starch content, producing useful enzymes that can be extracted for downstream industrial processes, or modified to have higher content of an energy-rich starting material such as oil for improved utilization as biofuel)
• Transgenic animals for food, or for production of pharmaceuticals or industrial products (e.g., transgenic salmon engineered for increased growth rate to maturity, transgenic goats producing human serum factors in their milk, and pigs producing the enzyme phytase in their saliva for improved nutrient utilization and manure with reduced phosphorus content).
The report is also critical of the fact that though the new technology offers scope and safe, it requires countries to enact regulations to manage the products. Lack of information at times would lead to a situation which will hamper some countries and its farmers and people to reap the benefits of the technology.
The report also points the fact that the “first-generation” transgenic products developed in the United States have now been adopted by farmers in other nations, including developing nations; and the new transgenic plant varieties intended for food use over the next few years are likely emerge from the developing world, from countries like China and India. For example, if transgenic rice varieties (probably insect-resistant varieties) that have been developed or are being developed are commercialized, this could have a significant impact on the global genetic engineering debate because large populations of humans will be consuming a staple transgenic whole food.
The report can be found on the web on USDA site. You may follow the link to given below.
http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_1OB?contentidonly=true&contentid=AC21Reports.xml">http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_1OB?contentidonly=true&contentid=AC21Reports.xml">http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_1OB?contentidonly=true&contentid=AC21Reports.xml
Thinking more about this, most people are looking for healthy foods, and it may just be possible that the technology will allow scientists to make food products and our favourite fatty food, which we would have without guilt; or if people don’t like broccoli, it may be possible to extract its cancer fighting nutrients and put them in an APPLE.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
Sept 02, 2006
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)