Corn prices are stable, other cereals gather speed and move up
Corn prices on the average notched up a bit ending about $0.70 (Rs.30) per MT higher than last weeks $128.5 (Rs.5700) per MT. The local delivery prices are still higher and ruling at Rs.6700 ($152) per MT. The prices a similar to last years price of $128 (Rs.5700) per MT during this period. The prices would have been higher, had there been no episode of Avian Influenza in India, causing slowdown in the corn demand.
It is felt that the corn demand is likely to come back, as the prices of chicken are gradually improving and placements of chicks in all states except Maharashtra is happening. It will still take some time for the consumption to come back to normal. The gap in demand and supply will be seen by end of June 2006, and the prices are likely to rise further.
With a very harsh summer being forecast and a likely lower than normal monsoon, corn crop in the rain dependent area will be affected, thus fuelling speculation and causing spurt in prices in the lean season.
Pearl Millet prices also increased by $7 (Rs.315) per Mt over last week and are also higher by $7 per MT (4.79%) over last year’s prices.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices though are higher by $4 (Rs.175) per MT over last week, they are $15 (Rs.665) per MT (8.33%) lower than last years price of $180 (RS.8000) per MT during April last week.
Barley prices have also moved up by $5 (RS.225) per MT over last week and are higher by almost $25 (Rs.11000 per MT over last years prices, indicating a short crop.
The price of corn on CBOT was up by $0.77 per MT over last week. May 2006 delivery closed at $93.67 per MT.
As Government has not been able to fill its godowns with the required wheat for Public Distribution System (PDS), reports indicate that the procurement will be much lower than the last year’s procurement of 14.8 MMT. Government of India has cleared decks to import another 3 MMT of wheat. Prices of wheat in the future markets have already touched Rs.10,000 ($225) per MT and traders are anticipating a higher price.
Will consumers pay more for food safety ?
When this question was asked to the American public, 84% responded that they will be willing to pay $270 (Rs.12,000) or 5% more every year, if food borne illnesses could be reduced by 50%.
A survey carried out on behalf of the Food Safety Policy Centre by Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University (MSU), took the pulse of a pubic at a time when regulatory action is focused on increasing the safety of the food chain.
Recent trends in global food production, processing, distribution, preparation and need for convenience foods is creating an increasing demand for safe food. It is also vital to have a food safety research in order to ensure a safer food supply. As per World Health Report of 2006, food and waterborne diarrhoeal diseases are leading causes of illness and death in less developed countries, killing approximately 1.8 million people annually, most of whom are children.
Outbreaks of food borne disease attract media attention and raise consumer concern. However, cases of food borne illness occur daily in all countries, from the most to the least developed. As most of these cases are go unreported, the true dimension of the problem is unknown.
The latest data from Center of Disease Control and Prevention, indicates that food borne illnesses kills 5,000 people a year in US. About 325,000 people go to hospital each year for a food-borne illness. This is based in estimates from the surveys conducted earlier.
Reports also indicate that the new regulations and systems have reduced the incidence of E Coli, Listeria in the US.
Everyone in the food system, from producers to preparers, must be vigilant in controlling microbiological hazards. Accordingly, food safety experts are stepping up calls for education about safe food handling because of the following factors that make controlling foodborne pathogens particularly challenging:
Lessons in 4C’s + S & T are a must. Check, Clean, Cook, Chill, Separate and Throw.
Check if the meat or food is in proper condition when it is purchased
Clean all surfaces and utensils before and after the cooking. Clean fruits and vegetables before consumption.
Chill it if you wish to use it later
Cook it properly – at stipulated temperature
Chill all leftovers and reheat when you wish to consume
Separate cooked and raw food, specially raw meat and vegetables etc
Throw if in doubt
Educating consumers will help in establishing a rapport with the consumers and winning their trust, which is vital.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
April 29, 2006
Saturday, April 29, 2006
Monday, April 24, 2006
Price move up again; Avian Influenza in India
Price move up again
It seems that the demand of corn for poultry sector is coming back. The prices of corn, notched up by $6 in one week from an average of $122.5 per MT in the market yard to $128.5 per MT. Prices in almost all states incluing Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh moved up. The prices last week were lower by 2.8% over last year (April 2005), but prices now are up by about 2% over last year.
Barley prices are still higher by 8% over last years $138 per MT at the market yard and have reached $149 per MT, even though the crop is coming into the market. The prices are higher by $5 per MT over last week as well.
Sorghum prices are higher by $2 per MT over last week’s prices of $159 and up to $161 per MT. The prices is still lower by 6% over last year’s price.
Pearl Millet prices are up by 3% over last year and are down from last week $155 per MT to $146 per MT.
Reports indicate that GOI has decided to import additional 3 MMT of wheat for its stocks with Food Corporation of India and this is likely to stabilize the prices. As the demand of wheat is open market is higher, farmers it seems have made a judgement call and are storing wheat and will look for higher prices in the coming months as private traders and millers will demand more wheat.
Prices of corn on CBOT were stable and corn closed at $93.10 per Mt on Friday. FOB value for #2 Yellow Corn was $109.65 per MT US Gulf for May delivery.
Prices of other commodities Sorghum (FOB, US Gulf) was $118.70 per MT, while the price for Barley (FOB PNW) was $127 per Mt for may delivery. Corn co-product prices are also higher. As Corn Gluten Feed was available at $99 per MT (FOB US Gulf), Corn Gluten Meal (60% protein) is available at $320 per MT for May delivery. Another co-product being used extensively in dairy rations and also in poultry layer rations, Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles (DDGS) is being shipped to Indonesia and the price (CIF) is $176 per MT in a 40 feet container.
Avian Influenza in India
The poultry industry is coming back to normal and prices all over the country are getting back to normal. While price in Hyderabad touched Rs.30 per kg live (a little bit lower than cost of production), prices in Delhi touched Rs.26 per kg live. The only state where prices are not inching up is Maharsahtra where they are still hovering at Rs.18 per kg live.
It is still little early to finalize on what the actual placements would be from now on and if Indian poultry industry especially the broiler sector will be able to attain its normal growth of 10%. Reports indicate some placements of parent stocks have already started and it would catch up. There is anticipation that there would be more consolidation and more farmers would like to operate on contract basis in the wake of losses that they have incurred. In addition, as there are empty sheds, some companies would certainly plan on renting the premises.
Poultry processing is the answer to many of the problems which the industry faces, one of them being marketing. It is time that the industry and Government realizes that it is wise to provide safe food to the consumers. One issue that would need to be tackled on a serious note would be the cold chain that is existent in Metros and some tier 2 cities.
While the government is keen to give incentives to the sector, two areas that would need strengthening are cold chain and retail marketing, without which it might not be possible to for the industry to attain the growth it can and provide the consumers with safe poultry meat.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
April 22, 2006
It seems that the demand of corn for poultry sector is coming back. The prices of corn, notched up by $6 in one week from an average of $122.5 per MT in the market yard to $128.5 per MT. Prices in almost all states incluing Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh moved up. The prices last week were lower by 2.8% over last year (April 2005), but prices now are up by about 2% over last year.
Barley prices are still higher by 8% over last years $138 per MT at the market yard and have reached $149 per MT, even though the crop is coming into the market. The prices are higher by $5 per MT over last week as well.
Sorghum prices are higher by $2 per MT over last week’s prices of $159 and up to $161 per MT. The prices is still lower by 6% over last year’s price.
Pearl Millet prices are up by 3% over last year and are down from last week $155 per MT to $146 per MT.
Reports indicate that GOI has decided to import additional 3 MMT of wheat for its stocks with Food Corporation of India and this is likely to stabilize the prices. As the demand of wheat is open market is higher, farmers it seems have made a judgement call and are storing wheat and will look for higher prices in the coming months as private traders and millers will demand more wheat.
Prices of corn on CBOT were stable and corn closed at $93.10 per Mt on Friday. FOB value for #2 Yellow Corn was $109.65 per MT US Gulf for May delivery.
Prices of other commodities Sorghum (FOB, US Gulf) was $118.70 per MT, while the price for Barley (FOB PNW) was $127 per Mt for may delivery. Corn co-product prices are also higher. As Corn Gluten Feed was available at $99 per MT (FOB US Gulf), Corn Gluten Meal (60% protein) is available at $320 per MT for May delivery. Another co-product being used extensively in dairy rations and also in poultry layer rations, Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles (DDGS) is being shipped to Indonesia and the price (CIF) is $176 per MT in a 40 feet container.
Avian Influenza in India
The poultry industry is coming back to normal and prices all over the country are getting back to normal. While price in Hyderabad touched Rs.30 per kg live (a little bit lower than cost of production), prices in Delhi touched Rs.26 per kg live. The only state where prices are not inching up is Maharsahtra where they are still hovering at Rs.18 per kg live.
It is still little early to finalize on what the actual placements would be from now on and if Indian poultry industry especially the broiler sector will be able to attain its normal growth of 10%. Reports indicate some placements of parent stocks have already started and it would catch up. There is anticipation that there would be more consolidation and more farmers would like to operate on contract basis in the wake of losses that they have incurred. In addition, as there are empty sheds, some companies would certainly plan on renting the premises.
Poultry processing is the answer to many of the problems which the industry faces, one of them being marketing. It is time that the industry and Government realizes that it is wise to provide safe food to the consumers. One issue that would need to be tackled on a serious note would be the cold chain that is existent in Metros and some tier 2 cities.
While the government is keen to give incentives to the sector, two areas that would need strengthening are cold chain and retail marketing, without which it might not be possible to for the industry to attain the growth it can and provide the consumers with safe poultry meat.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
April 22, 2006
Saturday, April 15, 2006
Stability is commodity prices; Agri Biotechnology gearing to provide benefits to consumers; Labeling of GM products in India
Stability is commodity prices
Average corn prices for the week dropped another $3.8 per MT at the market yard to $122.5 per MT from last weeks $126.3 per MT. Also the price is lower than last year’s price of $126 per MT at the market yard. This is probably due to new arrivals and low demand from the poultry sector as an aftermath of Avian Influenza.
The average prices in some markets like Bihar, Maharashtra and Karnataka increased a bit. Major increase was seen in Karnataka of about $7 per MT and this could be an anomaly. Prices in Rajasthan dropped to $133 per MT from last week’s $141 per MT.
Barley prices averaged $144 per MT this week and is about $5 per Mt higher than last week. The price is also higher by 12.5% than last year’s $128 per MT at the same time.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices are stable at $159 per MT and be lower by 3.04% than last year’s $164 per MT
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved up by $5 per MT to $155 per MT and is higher by 11.51% than last year’s $139 per MT.
Both Pearl Millet and Sorghum prices are still much higher than average corn prices in India by 27-30%, making it difficult for endusers to use these commodities.
Corn on CBOT for May delivery closed at $92.88 per MT, on Friday, lower by almost $2.76 per MT than its previous close a week ago.
Agri Biotechnology gearing to provide benefits to consumers
Companies are betting that the worldwide public will be less resistant to biotech crops that yield consumer benefits and to the use of biotech enzymes and microbes to aid in the production of foods, chemicals and biofuels, a field known as industrial biotechnology.
The biotech industry believes that the first set of crops aimed at the farming community is just a scratch on the surface and there are more products in offing specially for consumers. The new biotechnology developments are likely to sweep production agriculture, food manufacturing, the pharmaceutical industry and myriad industrial areas.
With crude oil touching $70 per barrel, there are more concerns about high oil prices, climate change etc and more work is being done in this direction.
In Australia, scientists are trying to breed a new type of sugar cane so the entire cane, not just the sugar, can be processed cheaply into ethanol. The cane would produce its own enzymes to break the fiber in the cane.
In the United States, biotech companies are working to breed crops that would produce the heart-healthy omega-3 fatty acids that are now found primarily in fish.
Then there will be milk, rather clear milk, made by using enzymes. The milk would not coagulate and can be used to blend with juices to make high protein fruit drink.
The above are just a few examples of the way that biotech sector is changing and is looking to alter crops and food products in ways that will be appealing to consumers and will be beneficial to them.
Labeling of GM products in India
The labeling of food products containing genetically modified products and food products prepared by using genetically modified products or food products containing additives that have been prepared by using genetically modified products is a contentious issue. How it will end up being implemented is still a question. GOI has come out with a draft notification which would make it mandatory for all food products (domestically produced or imported) of the above category to carry a label of GM food.
Few examples that could need to be labeled include, wine, cheese, breads as they are prepared using yeast or material which has been genetically modified, all vegetable oils including those containing imported (soy oil) and domestic (containing cotton seed oil).
Another question that needs to be answered is, will all products of animal origin particularly, milk, its value added products (butter, ice cream etc) and Indian milk sweets (Rossogulla, Ras Malais etc) and cottage cheese (paneer) will also need to be labeled as they are produced by using feed that contains cotton seed or cotton seed that is all co-mingled and is a genetically modified product.
In addition to the above labeling requirement, the import policy also stipulates that all GM products must be cleared by GEAC before they are sold in the market and each consignment must be cleared by GEAC. This would mean slow movement of oil in the market, prices hikes for the consumers and congestion at the ports for clearance of the consignments.
The big question though is, who will benefit from this labelling requirement and what will be the achievement, when there is enough knowledge in the place to suggest that the product is safe and was being imported or used domestically for some time. In addition, does India have the infrastructure to test all the consignments of products that contain GM products and are being manufactured using GM products.
An ideal situation would be to clear all GM products and events that are cleared in country of origin for marketing and use in foods and feeds.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
April 14, 2006
Average corn prices for the week dropped another $3.8 per MT at the market yard to $122.5 per MT from last weeks $126.3 per MT. Also the price is lower than last year’s price of $126 per MT at the market yard. This is probably due to new arrivals and low demand from the poultry sector as an aftermath of Avian Influenza.
The average prices in some markets like Bihar, Maharashtra and Karnataka increased a bit. Major increase was seen in Karnataka of about $7 per MT and this could be an anomaly. Prices in Rajasthan dropped to $133 per MT from last week’s $141 per MT.
Barley prices averaged $144 per MT this week and is about $5 per Mt higher than last week. The price is also higher by 12.5% than last year’s $128 per MT at the same time.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices are stable at $159 per MT and be lower by 3.04% than last year’s $164 per MT
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved up by $5 per MT to $155 per MT and is higher by 11.51% than last year’s $139 per MT.
Both Pearl Millet and Sorghum prices are still much higher than average corn prices in India by 27-30%, making it difficult for endusers to use these commodities.
Corn on CBOT for May delivery closed at $92.88 per MT, on Friday, lower by almost $2.76 per MT than its previous close a week ago.
Agri Biotechnology gearing to provide benefits to consumers
Companies are betting that the worldwide public will be less resistant to biotech crops that yield consumer benefits and to the use of biotech enzymes and microbes to aid in the production of foods, chemicals and biofuels, a field known as industrial biotechnology.
The biotech industry believes that the first set of crops aimed at the farming community is just a scratch on the surface and there are more products in offing specially for consumers. The new biotechnology developments are likely to sweep production agriculture, food manufacturing, the pharmaceutical industry and myriad industrial areas.
With crude oil touching $70 per barrel, there are more concerns about high oil prices, climate change etc and more work is being done in this direction.
In Australia, scientists are trying to breed a new type of sugar cane so the entire cane, not just the sugar, can be processed cheaply into ethanol. The cane would produce its own enzymes to break the fiber in the cane.
In the United States, biotech companies are working to breed crops that would produce the heart-healthy omega-3 fatty acids that are now found primarily in fish.
Then there will be milk, rather clear milk, made by using enzymes. The milk would not coagulate and can be used to blend with juices to make high protein fruit drink.
The above are just a few examples of the way that biotech sector is changing and is looking to alter crops and food products in ways that will be appealing to consumers and will be beneficial to them.
Labeling of GM products in India
The labeling of food products containing genetically modified products and food products prepared by using genetically modified products or food products containing additives that have been prepared by using genetically modified products is a contentious issue. How it will end up being implemented is still a question. GOI has come out with a draft notification which would make it mandatory for all food products (domestically produced or imported) of the above category to carry a label of GM food.
Few examples that could need to be labeled include, wine, cheese, breads as they are prepared using yeast or material which has been genetically modified, all vegetable oils including those containing imported (soy oil) and domestic (containing cotton seed oil).
Another question that needs to be answered is, will all products of animal origin particularly, milk, its value added products (butter, ice cream etc) and Indian milk sweets (Rossogulla, Ras Malais etc) and cottage cheese (paneer) will also need to be labeled as they are produced by using feed that contains cotton seed or cotton seed that is all co-mingled and is a genetically modified product.
In addition to the above labeling requirement, the import policy also stipulates that all GM products must be cleared by GEAC before they are sold in the market and each consignment must be cleared by GEAC. This would mean slow movement of oil in the market, prices hikes for the consumers and congestion at the ports for clearance of the consignments.
The big question though is, who will benefit from this labelling requirement and what will be the achievement, when there is enough knowledge in the place to suggest that the product is safe and was being imported or used domestically for some time. In addition, does India have the infrastructure to test all the consignments of products that contain GM products and are being manufactured using GM products.
An ideal situation would be to clear all GM products and events that are cleared in country of origin for marketing and use in foods and feeds.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
April 14, 2006
Saturday, April 08, 2006
Commodity Prices slide up; Avian Flu effects poultry trade
Commodity Prices slide up
The average maize prices softened a bit and the demand fell due to the bird flu. The average price for March 2006 $130.2, which this week fell by about $4 to $126.3 per MT at the market yard.
Another reason for the drop in prices is the arrivals in Bihar and Tamil Nadu. Prices in Bihar till last week were at $137 per MT, slid to $118 per MT at the market yard on fresh arrivals. Prices in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh have gone up a little bit from $125 and $ 153 to $133 and $158 per MT respectively.
Pearl millet prices till last week were at $143 per Mt at the market yard, have notched up further to $150 per MT. Last year same time the Pearl Millet prices were $134 per MT. The prices are higher by almost 12% than last year.
Sorghum prices have remained stable at $160 per MT at the market yard, but the prices last year during the same time were $141 per MT, indicating an increase of approximately 13.5% over last year prices.
Barley crop has started to come into the market, but the average price at the market yard is about $139 per MT, which last year was $123 per MT, an increase of about 13%.
The dip in corn prices is a temporary phenomenon and as the chick placement catches up the demand for corn will be higher and the prices might shoot up much faster.
Reports indicate that the planting in US are down by almost 5% than last year. While the industry estimated the plantings to take place in over 80 million acres of land, preliminary information available indicates plantings in only 78 million acres of land.
With the world corn demand higher and also domestic requirements up in US particularly due to ethanol, the prices in the world market are likely to remain high. Some analysts also believe that the US farmers are likely to make more money in 2006-07 and the average farm price will be up from $76.75 per MT to $84.62 per MT.
Corn on CBOT for May delivery closed at $95.64 per MT, higher by almost $2.73 per MT than last week, basically on the news that the supplies will be short and the demand will be higher.
Avian Flu effects poultry trade
With almost 45 countries affected due to bird flu in four regions of the world, including Europe, Africa, Asia and Middle East the disease has killed about 108 people in the last 3 years. It has caused culling or death of 200 million birds in the region, but vigorous response to outbreaks in this certain regions, particularly in Thailand, Vietnam, China and India have reduced the chances of transmission of the disease from poultry to humans.
Vaccination campaigns, such as the one carried out in Vietnam, have also played an important role in helping some countries contain the spread of the disease
The FAO, in close collaboration with the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), has urged governments to concentrate containment efforts on the farm and emphasizes the role of human activity — trade and markets — which are the main spreaders of the virus but also are the areas that can be inspected, controlled and improved.
The disease is threatening the livelihoods of many people and depressing poultry prices in many regions of the world. The recent outbreaks in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and India have caused dramatic swings in poultry consumption and sharp price declines.
Some reports indicate that the international poultry prices over the last few years were higher by over 30% because of declining exportable supplies. But the developments in early 2006 created a completely different market environment, wherein consumption shocks are progressively lowering global import demand for broiler meat. Poultry prices are expected to continue declining in the world market, threatening industry profitability around the world, household livelihood and rural employment opportunities in all developing countries.
The unfounded fears of disease transmission have reduced consumption, effected general trade including imports and exports. If the domestic prices remain depressed, lower production growth is forecast.
In India reports of consumption drops of 25 - 30% have caused domestic prices to fall by over 50% in some area, implying lower production prospects for some time to come. In India the prices declined to Rs.1 per kg live in some markets. The consumption in some markets is showing an upward trend, but stocks are still selling below cost of production.
In Brazil too, where exports account for approximately 30% of total poultry output, the price of day-old chicks is down sharply, a warning of potential production changes.
Ultimately it is the consumer, who needs to be convinced that the product that is being put forward is safe and the companies in the business and governments are going all the way to ensure that the products are safe to consume. The message that as long as poultry products are cooked properly and come from a reliable source then there is nothing to worry about must be highlighted. Effective strategies will need to implemented, live bird markets regulated and slowly and gradually banned as has been done in Hong Kong, Vietnam and Thailand.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
April 07, 2006
The average maize prices softened a bit and the demand fell due to the bird flu. The average price for March 2006 $130.2, which this week fell by about $4 to $126.3 per MT at the market yard.
Another reason for the drop in prices is the arrivals in Bihar and Tamil Nadu. Prices in Bihar till last week were at $137 per MT, slid to $118 per MT at the market yard on fresh arrivals. Prices in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh have gone up a little bit from $125 and $ 153 to $133 and $158 per MT respectively.
Pearl millet prices till last week were at $143 per Mt at the market yard, have notched up further to $150 per MT. Last year same time the Pearl Millet prices were $134 per MT. The prices are higher by almost 12% than last year.
Sorghum prices have remained stable at $160 per MT at the market yard, but the prices last year during the same time were $141 per MT, indicating an increase of approximately 13.5% over last year prices.
Barley crop has started to come into the market, but the average price at the market yard is about $139 per MT, which last year was $123 per MT, an increase of about 13%.
The dip in corn prices is a temporary phenomenon and as the chick placement catches up the demand for corn will be higher and the prices might shoot up much faster.
Reports indicate that the planting in US are down by almost 5% than last year. While the industry estimated the plantings to take place in over 80 million acres of land, preliminary information available indicates plantings in only 78 million acres of land.
With the world corn demand higher and also domestic requirements up in US particularly due to ethanol, the prices in the world market are likely to remain high. Some analysts also believe that the US farmers are likely to make more money in 2006-07 and the average farm price will be up from $76.75 per MT to $84.62 per MT.
Corn on CBOT for May delivery closed at $95.64 per MT, higher by almost $2.73 per MT than last week, basically on the news that the supplies will be short and the demand will be higher.
Avian Flu effects poultry trade
With almost 45 countries affected due to bird flu in four regions of the world, including Europe, Africa, Asia and Middle East the disease has killed about 108 people in the last 3 years. It has caused culling or death of 200 million birds in the region, but vigorous response to outbreaks in this certain regions, particularly in Thailand, Vietnam, China and India have reduced the chances of transmission of the disease from poultry to humans.
Vaccination campaigns, such as the one carried out in Vietnam, have also played an important role in helping some countries contain the spread of the disease
The FAO, in close collaboration with the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), has urged governments to concentrate containment efforts on the farm and emphasizes the role of human activity — trade and markets — which are the main spreaders of the virus but also are the areas that can be inspected, controlled and improved.
The disease is threatening the livelihoods of many people and depressing poultry prices in many regions of the world. The recent outbreaks in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and India have caused dramatic swings in poultry consumption and sharp price declines.
Some reports indicate that the international poultry prices over the last few years were higher by over 30% because of declining exportable supplies. But the developments in early 2006 created a completely different market environment, wherein consumption shocks are progressively lowering global import demand for broiler meat. Poultry prices are expected to continue declining in the world market, threatening industry profitability around the world, household livelihood and rural employment opportunities in all developing countries.
The unfounded fears of disease transmission have reduced consumption, effected general trade including imports and exports. If the domestic prices remain depressed, lower production growth is forecast.
In India reports of consumption drops of 25 - 30% have caused domestic prices to fall by over 50% in some area, implying lower production prospects for some time to come. In India the prices declined to Rs.1 per kg live in some markets. The consumption in some markets is showing an upward trend, but stocks are still selling below cost of production.
In Brazil too, where exports account for approximately 30% of total poultry output, the price of day-old chicks is down sharply, a warning of potential production changes.
Ultimately it is the consumer, who needs to be convinced that the product that is being put forward is safe and the companies in the business and governments are going all the way to ensure that the products are safe to consume. The message that as long as poultry products are cooked properly and come from a reliable source then there is nothing to worry about must be highlighted. Effective strategies will need to implemented, live bird markets regulated and slowly and gradually banned as has been done in Hong Kong, Vietnam and Thailand.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
April 07, 2006
Wednesday, April 05, 2006
Commodity Update; Lessons from Hong Kong
Commodity Update
This week government of India finalized further imports of 1.5 – 2 MMT of wheat to fill it the Food Corporation of India godowns, clearly indicating shortfall in crop and higher market prices for wheat in the open market.
The first shipment of wheat in due to arrive in the southern port sometime in first or second week of April 2006. If the prices remain stable or nose dive is yet to be seen.
Corn prices on the other hand are stable, even though the demand is fairly low due to avian influenza in some poultry pockets in west India. The prices of some varieties showed an upward trend, particularly Red, up from $127 per MT last week to $ 138 per MT this week. Yellow maize also showed an upward trend from $136 per MT to $ 141 per MT at the market yard.
With supplies running low in parts most parts of the country and very limited arrivals, the prices are likely to remain high. In some states like Andhra Pradesh and Bihar the prices soften a bit from $130 and $143 per MT to $118 & $ 137 per MT respectively, but in states like Rajasthan the prices increased from $138 per MT to $144 per MT. in Tamil Nadu, the prices declined from $120 per MT to $112 per MT in the market yard due to new crop arrivals and low demand from the poultry sector.
The corn prices in US at CBOT jumped to $92.91 per MT for May 2006 delivery and increase of $6.79 per MT over last week. The indicative FOB values though remained stable at $108 – 109 per MT from US Gulf.
Detailed report can be seen at the following link.
http://www.grains.org/galleries/market_perspectives/Market%20Perspectives%203-31-06.pdf
The low demand is a temporary phenomenon and the production cycle is likely to revive in another 6 – 8 weeks after which normal hatching will start. This will bring back some demand in the market.
The poultry consumption is down all across the country, one of the reason is bird flu scare and the second is the festival season across the country, where 9 days of vegetarian diet takes precedence. There is a possibility that the industry will see the some of the consumption coming back after the festival is over.
Lessons from Hong Kong
Government of Hong Kong, in order to keep bird flu at bay is considering a series of long term measures, one of them being a ban on wet markets in the city. An area close to the boundary has been identified for a proposed central poultry slaughter plant, which is likely to come into operation in 2009. The plant capacity with be 40,000 chicken and 3,000 pigeons per day. The plant capacity will be increased to 60,000 chicken per day.
The plant will have a covered area of 10,500 sq meters and will cost $ 25.64 million. The trucks will deliver live birds from the farms and will go back to the farms only after complete sanitization.
As in other Asian countries, the residents of Hong Kong prefer to purchase live chickens and get them slaughtered and there is a thriving wet market system in all over China and Hong Kong. The trade currently employs some 3000 poultry retailers and wholesalers, ho will be effected due to this change in the chicken supply, but the change will certainly benefit the city dwellers and the community as a whole.
Municipal Corporation of Delhi has already passed an order in Nov 2004, which does not allow street slaughter of birds. The order also specifies the shop sizes and the systems that need to be followed for sale of meat under hygienic conditions in the city of Delhi. With Delhi Agricultural Marketing Board (DAMB) proposing a 40,000 birds processing unit at the Delhi Poultry Market, the solution for the supply of hygienic chicken in Delhi is not far. As the city of Delhi gets ready for 2010 Commonwealth Games, the Municipal Corporation of Delhi and Delhi Government must gear up to provide infrastructure which would make available processed hygienic chicken to the citizens and tourists in Delhi.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
March 31, 2006
This week government of India finalized further imports of 1.5 – 2 MMT of wheat to fill it the Food Corporation of India godowns, clearly indicating shortfall in crop and higher market prices for wheat in the open market.
The first shipment of wheat in due to arrive in the southern port sometime in first or second week of April 2006. If the prices remain stable or nose dive is yet to be seen.
Corn prices on the other hand are stable, even though the demand is fairly low due to avian influenza in some poultry pockets in west India. The prices of some varieties showed an upward trend, particularly Red, up from $127 per MT last week to $ 138 per MT this week. Yellow maize also showed an upward trend from $136 per MT to $ 141 per MT at the market yard.
With supplies running low in parts most parts of the country and very limited arrivals, the prices are likely to remain high. In some states like Andhra Pradesh and Bihar the prices soften a bit from $130 and $143 per MT to $118 & $ 137 per MT respectively, but in states like Rajasthan the prices increased from $138 per MT to $144 per MT. in Tamil Nadu, the prices declined from $120 per MT to $112 per MT in the market yard due to new crop arrivals and low demand from the poultry sector.
The corn prices in US at CBOT jumped to $92.91 per MT for May 2006 delivery and increase of $6.79 per MT over last week. The indicative FOB values though remained stable at $108 – 109 per MT from US Gulf.
Detailed report can be seen at the following link.
http://www.grains.org/galleries/market_perspectives/Market%20Perspectives%203-31-06.pdf
The low demand is a temporary phenomenon and the production cycle is likely to revive in another 6 – 8 weeks after which normal hatching will start. This will bring back some demand in the market.
The poultry consumption is down all across the country, one of the reason is bird flu scare and the second is the festival season across the country, where 9 days of vegetarian diet takes precedence. There is a possibility that the industry will see the some of the consumption coming back after the festival is over.
Lessons from Hong Kong
Government of Hong Kong, in order to keep bird flu at bay is considering a series of long term measures, one of them being a ban on wet markets in the city. An area close to the boundary has been identified for a proposed central poultry slaughter plant, which is likely to come into operation in 2009. The plant capacity with be 40,000 chicken and 3,000 pigeons per day. The plant capacity will be increased to 60,000 chicken per day.
The plant will have a covered area of 10,500 sq meters and will cost $ 25.64 million. The trucks will deliver live birds from the farms and will go back to the farms only after complete sanitization.
As in other Asian countries, the residents of Hong Kong prefer to purchase live chickens and get them slaughtered and there is a thriving wet market system in all over China and Hong Kong. The trade currently employs some 3000 poultry retailers and wholesalers, ho will be effected due to this change in the chicken supply, but the change will certainly benefit the city dwellers and the community as a whole.
Municipal Corporation of Delhi has already passed an order in Nov 2004, which does not allow street slaughter of birds. The order also specifies the shop sizes and the systems that need to be followed for sale of meat under hygienic conditions in the city of Delhi. With Delhi Agricultural Marketing Board (DAMB) proposing a 40,000 birds processing unit at the Delhi Poultry Market, the solution for the supply of hygienic chicken in Delhi is not far. As the city of Delhi gets ready for 2010 Commonwealth Games, the Municipal Corporation of Delhi and Delhi Government must gear up to provide infrastructure which would make available processed hygienic chicken to the citizens and tourists in Delhi.
Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com
March 31, 2006
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