Coarse Cereals prices up, land coverage down
Prices of all coarse cereals (Maize, Pearl Millet, Sorghum and Barley) rose slightly on higher demand and limited supplies this week.
Maize prices were up over last week by 1%, at Rs.7400 per MT on an average at the market yard, but the prices are over 18.6% higher than average reported last year this week. The demand of maize is higher in Tamil Nadu due to high egg prices and continued export. Reports from Bihar indicate a quality issues due to wet grains, which could be cause of concern for the poultry farmers and feed manufacturers in East India and also starch manufacturers who are sourcing the material from Bihar.
Pearl Millet prices were up by 3.5% over last week to Rs.6500 per MT. The prices are similar to last year prices and are about 12% lower than maize prices.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices are about 4% up over last week at Rs.9650 per MT. The prices are over 28% than last year and about 30% higher than maize.
Barley prices also are up by 4.3% over last week at Rs.7050 per MT. The prices are just about 1% higher than last prices at this time of the year.
Reports available from Ministry of Agriculture indicate that sowing for Pearl Millet, Sorghum and maize is all lagging behind in comparison to last year’s coverage. It is expected that Sorghum coverage may be higher this year, due to higher prices. As per the report from Ministry of Agriculture, Maize sowing is only 3.317 mhac this year against 3.914 mhac last year, lower by 15%. Under normal circumstances Maize in Khariff season is grown on 6.5 mhac of land.
On the other side sowing of cotton is up from 5.8 mhac to 6.905 mhac of which 35% is sowing with Bt Cotton seed. Area under oilseeds is also reported higher at 9.519 mhac, up from 8.742 mhac.
Prices of corn in US are on the upward trend this week. Corn on CBOT for July delivery ended at $134.44 per MT, while for Sept it was quoted at $139.59. It is getting difficult to provide a CNF value on corn as the freight rates are going up steadily for want of ships. In India also reports indicate that KANDLA PORT TRUST has increased the port fees, which is levied on the ship depending on its
New corn production estimates in US
Corn production as per USDA estimates (WASDE Report, July 12, 2007), is likely to be 326 MMT for the year 2007/08,up from last month (Jun 2007) estimates of 316 MMT. The ending stocks are also estimated to be up from 25.33 MMT (estimated Jun 2007) to 38.15 MMT. It is expected that the farmers will receive a value of $110 – 133 per MT (at farm), which is also lower that than $122 – 145 per MT estimated in June 2007. The average farm price estimated for 2006/07corn crop is $120 per MT.
Of the total area under corn (92.9 million acres) the farmers in US have planted 73% with biotech seeds, which is up from last year by about 12%.
The major exporters in 2007/08 will be Argentina, 16 MMT; Brazil, 6.50 MMT; China, 3.0 MMT; Ukraine 1.5 MMT (down from last estimates of 2.5 MMT, due to lower production estimate of 6.5 MMT); FSU-12, 1.83 MMT (down from last estimates of 2.83 MMT due to lower production estimate of 13.48 MMT). The ending stocks in China are also expected to up to 29.96 MMT, due to higher production estimates of 148 MMT.
Total corn production in the world as per USDA figures is expected to be 777.10 MMT, up from June 2007 estimates of 767.96 MMT. The ending stocks in the world are also estimated at 108.36 MMT, as against 91.80 MMT in June 2007.
Cost of banning GM imports in Ireland
A feed group in Ireland has worked out the cost if the import of GM crops, particularly (corn) is banned in Ireland. The cost is estimated at EURO 40 million annually. This is mainly due t o the increase in cost as corn will not be available locally.
It is not only corn, but also by-products whose import is affected due to the ban on import of GM products. Corn by-products are used to feed the large beef and dairy sector in Ireland and any cost increase is also going to effect the profitability of the farmers and the overall competitiveness in the export market. Ireland is one of the major exporter of beef and dairy products.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
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