Commodity prices tumble in India
On high production estimates in the Khariff season (Oct harvest) and fewer buyers, coarse grain prices across the board declined sharply. Maize prices were down by about 4.3% over last week settling at Rs.7000 per Mt at the market yard. Prices were down by 4.3% over last year as well. Buying of maize is for current usage only and all buyers are waiting for the new crop which will be harvested in Oct 2007.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were also down by 4.3% over last week, settling at Rs.6400-6450 per MT at the market yard. Prices are down by 6% over last year. As against maize the prices are down by 9%.
Sorghum prices are also down by 1.4% over last week to Rs.9250 per MT at the market yard. The prices are up over last year by 12.7%. As against maize, the prices are higher by 31%.
Barley is probably the only coarse grain, whose prices are up. Barley prices have shown an upward trend of 4% over last week, settling at Rs.8300 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 6.6%. The increase is prices is being attributed to higher demand for exports and some consolidation by exporters.
Corn prices on CBOT, came down for Sept and Dec deliveries. Prices were $130.38 and $134.40 per MT for Sept and Dec deliveries respectively, lower than last week by about $4 for nSept and $7 for Dec delivery.
Trade reports indicate a higher corn production in US at 333.32 MMT as against the USDA production estimate of 331.57 MMT. Trade also estimates a higher ending stocks at 39.16 MMT as against USDA estimate of 38.5 MMT. Due the increase in prices the average price of Corn may fall to $126 per MT as against 149.60 MT, a drop, not a huge drop. The reason for the small drop is the strong demand for corn from U.S. ethanol plants.
Growth of Poultry in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh
Sri Lankan poultry has been growing steadily for the last 10 years. The latest reports indicate that the placement of broiler is about 7 million/month, 84 million per year. This is a 35% increase from 62 million placed in 1996. The average growth of the industry is about 3.5% per year. The average weight of the birds is 2 kg live, the per capita consumption is at about 6.0 kg per person per annum. Corn production in Sri Lanka is estimated at 40-50 TMT and the requirement is about 200 - 220 TMT. The gap in the supply is fullfilled from the neigbouring countries whenever required and mostly from India.
New processing plants are coming up in Sri Lanka and the current slaughter capacities are about 20,000 birds / hr at standard plants and there are many smaller plants that have also come up in the last couple of years. Food safety is a primary issue in Sri Lanka and almost 80% of the chicken is sold as processed and value added. All plants have to be necessarily HACCP certified.
Major poultry producers in Sri Lanka include Bairaha, Chrisbro, Maxies, Nelna, Prima, Pussella farms. As per the Govt. of Sri Lanka reports the constant value added of the poultry sector increased by 2.3% for 2005. Producer prices of all the livestock items have also increased by around 5% to 29%. This has affected the current value added to grew by 19.3% in 2005.
In Bangladesh the broiler growth is about 10%. In 2007, 320 million broilers are expected to be placed along with about 33 million layers. The overall requirement of maize in the country is estimated at 1.4 MMT. Due to the increase in demand, many farmers in Bangladesh have started cultivating maize instead of Rice. Maize production has touched about 0.4 MMT, which is a 100% increase over last 10 years, when the country was not producing any maize. Of the gap in demand, almost 60% is fulfilled by India, which is a major supplier of maize to Bangladesh.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
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