Grain markets in turmoil
Maize prices are 2.3% over last week reaching Rs.6600 – 6650 range at the market yard. The prices are also 8.3% higher than last year in the last week of October 2006. Possible reasons of the increases in prices is export consolidation and bad weather in parts of Tamil nadu and Andhra Pradesh holding deliveries. Average Oct 2007 price was Rs.6549 at the market yard, about 8.77% higher than Oct 2006 prices. though the prices are lower than Sept 2007 average price by 4.92%.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices for end of Oct 2007 reached Rs.6166 per MT at the market yard, about 4.1% lower than last week. Prices are also lower than last year by 6.7%. As against maize the prives are lower by 7%, but pearl millet is not being included in poultry rations, as the differential is not higher. Average Oct 2007 price was Rs.6385, down by 2.10% over Sept 2007 price. Average price is also lower than Sept 2007 price by 2.57%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices are lower than last week values by 1.7% at Rs.9535 per MT, but are 21.2% higher than last year. Against maize, the prices are 44% higher . Average sorghum prices for Oct 2007 was Rs.9218, about 1.13% lower than Sept 2007 prices, But higher by 31% over Oct 2006 prices on an average. Against Maize, the average price is 29% higher.
Barley prices dipped by 7.3% over last week, to reach Rs.10200 per MT at the market yard. The prices are about 48% higher than last year. Average prices for Oct 2007 was Rs.10400, higher by 34% over Oct 2006 and 11.6% higher than Sept 2007.
GOI has estimated the production of maize in India at 13.03 MMT for Oct 2007 against 11.48 MMT for Oct 2006 harvest and 3.0 MMT for Fed/March 2008 against 3.55 MMT for Feb/March 2007. The total production is estimated at 16.03 MMT for 2007 against 14.98 MMT for 2006. With the wheat MSP increased to Rs.10,000 per MT, many analysts believe that the land under maize in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh may go down and shift to Maize. In addition high prices of wheat in the local market will force many a subsistence farmers to consume maize as food and not sell the same to procure wheat from the open market, thus reducing the market surplus.
The total demand of maize for all sectors including poultry, starch, livestock, brewery, exports etc is estimated at 15.93 MMT, any reduction in Rabi (Feb/March 2008) harvest, increase in human consumption and higher exports could trigger an unusual increase in prices of Maize in India.
Corn prices on CBOT moved up due to high energy values. Corn on CBOT for Dec 07 and March 08 closed at $148.42 and $155.31 per MT respectively, up by $2 – 2.26 per MT. Corn harvest is 73% complete and almost 84% of soybean has been harvested in the US.
DDG’s prices are going up again and if indications are correct it will be close to $290 – 300 per MT for CNF India for Jan – Feb deliveries. At these prices, it is little lower than Soy-meal, which is currently selling at $375 per MT delivered at some of the destinations.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
1 comment:
i think you should check your barley price...
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