Maize Price up in India, area down at present; Heat Stress in Poultry

Maize Prices slide up

Maize prices were up by almost 5.6% over last week at Rs.7300 - 7400 per MT range at the market yard, up from Rs.7000 where the prices were held for last 6 weeks. The prices are 24% higher that what they were last year during the same time. The big question is will the higher prices this year translate to higher sowing in the year 2007/08. The monsoon is still unpredictable. As per the reports available the maize sowing is lagging behind by 11% over last year, but there is still time for sowing.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices slid down by about 4% over last week and are at Rs.6200 per MT at the market yard. The prices are similar to what they were last year, but against maize the prices are about 15% lower, which makes a case for its substitution in poultry rations, specially in layer rations in North India.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices are also down by 4% over last week at Rs.9200 - 9300 pert MT range at the market yard. The prices are about 15% higher than last year and about 26% higher than maize. Sorghum sowing is also down by about 20% over last year, but as the monsoon is still in its first phase, lost ground can be gained as the monsoon progresses.

Barley prices are about 5% higher than last week at Rs.6900 per MT at the market yard and 4% lower than last year prices.

Report from the meteorological department indicate that the pre-monsoon showers between March 1 - May 31, were lower than last year by 15.56% and of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions, 20 received deficient rains in central and southern parts of the country.

Sowing of cotton, particularly Bt Cotton has caught on. The overall sowing for cotton is up by 33.8% over last year.

Corn prices in US at CBOT July, Sept, Dec delivery were $165 - 167 per MT, up from $150 - 154 per MT range of last week and increase of $13 -15 per MT.

USDA also released it crop report last week and also two other consulting companies released their reports.

Area under corn is estimated between 90.5 - 90.724 million hectares and the production at 316 MMT - 322 MMT.

The overall usage of corn in US is expected to be 261.41 - 265 MMT of which the feed use is expected to be 142.24 - 144.38 MMT and industrial usage (Food/Seed/Ethanol/Starch) is expected to be 119.32 - 121.66 MMT. Of this the use of corn for ethanol is expected to be 83.82 - 86.26 MMT as per the estimates.

High heat - production stress on livestock

Birds are ‘heat stressed’ if they have difficulty achieving a balance between body heat production and body heat loss. This can occur at all ages and in all types of poultry.

Abnormally high temperatures in Northern plains of India have affected the production of eggs, and meat. The production of eggs has been reported to be down in parts of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and central India where temperatures ran as high as 48 deg C.

Broilers do not consume feed at such high temperatures and the weight gain is also very slow as high temperatures.

Farmers in Haryana have reported production loss of 25 - 30% in case of eggs. Though there has been no mortality, birds are not consuming feed, which affects the production of eggs.

One way to combat heat stress is to feed birds (layers and broilers) during the cool hours (early morning and late night) and provide cool drinking water to the birds. In addition of fans / coolers / foggers can be provided, it helps in combating heat stress.

Feed removal prior to the hottest part of the day has been shown to be beneficial in reducing mortality. The advantages are reduced metabolic heat output, and where feeds systems can be lifted, increased floor space and improved air distribution over the floor.

Where feed consumption is decreased due to spells of hot weather, dietary adjustments can help maintain a good supply of nutrients. Protein contributes more metabolic heat than fats and carbohydrates, so a correct energy: protein ratio is important. Dietary vitamins and minerals can be reformulated.

Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council
India
bluecross303@gmail.com

Stable Maize prices; Alternative to poultry...sheep & goats under stall feeding

Maize prices remain stable in India

Maize prices are stable at Rs.7000 per MT at the market yard, but the prices are about 20% higher than last year.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices dipped by 2.6% over last week to Rs.6450 - 6500 per MT range. The prices are also lower than last year by 2.8% and also lower than maize by about 7%.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices averaged Rs.9600 - 9700 per MT this week, up 2.8 over last week. The prices are 21% higher than last year and are also higher than maize by 38%.

Barley prices averaged Rs.6550 - 6600 per MT, about 2% lower than last week and also about 7% lower than last year.

Price of corn at CBOT also remained stable at $150 - $154 per MT for July - sept - Dec deliveries.

As the weather has been good in US, many analysts beleive that the corn production will be better in 2007/08 and the ending stocks will in the range of 24 - 27 MMT. The USDA report will be out on Monday, Jun 11, 2007 at 8:30 AM (DC Time).

Alternatives to Poultry Business…small ruminants for meat

There are many to debate poultry as a risky business, mainly due to the recent out-breaks of Avian Influenza in different parts of the world and India also suffered in Feb 2006, when AI was discovered in India and the consumption of chicken and eggs went down.

One of the alternatives to poultry business, especially broilers, is sheep and goat for meat under stall feeding.

India has vast small ruminant resources, the largest goat population and probably the most underfed, under-utilized, and malnourished.

Goat & Sheep farming finds its place in the socio-economic context of a landless and marginal Indian Agrarian Society. The National Commission on Agriculture has recommended that Animal Production is one such means to provide additional rural employment and to increase the Meat and Milk production in the country.

The Goat and Sheep species is perhaps the most misunderstood and neglected Livestock Species, but one the most important economic species of livestock especially in the developing counties (Asia and Africa). India, both in Asia and the World has the largest Sheep and Goat population.

But with the meat consumption on the increase and the prices rising, it is possible to scientifically breed the animals and rear the kids for better profits.
Prospects of Small Ruminant Production

1. It will be worthwhile to plan in advance the annual breeding, feeding, rearing and management program aimed at supply of lambs and kids to targeted markets based on their requirements for carcass weight and leanness.

2. Based on the trials conducted by US Grains Council at various locations in India, it has been found that lambs / kids weaned at 2 – 2.5 months of age fare well under intensive feeding system (stall fed) and gain economic market weight at 6 – 6.5 months of age.

3. An average weight gain of 280 gm/day for males and 191 gm/day for females of Boer – Sirohi crosses has been achieved, if the animals are fed concentrate @3% of body weight under stall fed conditions.

4. Smaller breeds also perform well and the average weight gain was over 130-150 gm/day on the above feeding regimen.

5. Another advantage was the rest to does and eves when the kids and lambs are weaned at 2 – 2.5 months, so as the animals can come in heat again at a proper time and available for breeding.

The goat meat is the preferred meat in the country. More than 35 percent of the meat consumed in the country is from Goat and Sheep.

The goats have been found to be most suited and economical for harsh environments and even in most unfavorable conditions. Economically, goats are more suited than cattle to harsh regions including wastelands.

There are many dual purpose breeds in India and there is also a possibility of cross breeding with imported stock. Goats are good breeders and with proper breeding systems in place, it is possible to enhance the genetic capabilities of the herd by using embryo transfer technology (ETT) and synchronization techniques to enhance the breeding efficiency.

Amit Sachdev

Representative

U S Grains Council, India

bluecross303@gmail.com

Prices remain stable; Ethanol slowdown in China

Prices remain stable

Maize prices have remained stable at Rs.7000 per MT at the market yard for five weeks in a row, which is ver unusual. Analysts believe that this could be due to better availability of the crop from the Rabi season and low oftake of the crop as most of the end users are covered. Also as the demand in summer months is down due to high heat, the stablity might be streched. The demand might pick up as monsoons hit the country at different locations and it is difficult to predict the prices now.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were down 6.3% over last week at Rs.6300 per MT. The prices are currently at 4% lower than last year and also 10% lower than maize price. With such low prices, the layer farmers can certainly use the commodity at 5 - 7% in the rations to further reduce the feed cost.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices were up by 4% over last week, at Rs.9350 - 9400 per MT range. The prices are about 14% higher than last year and running about 33% higher than maize. It may be bizzare, but sorghumis also a human staple in many parts of India, particularly in parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan. With high prices of sorghum and also of wheat, the questions that looms is what are the people eating?

Barley prices are stable at Rs.6800 - 6900 range at the market yard and the prices are 13% lower than last year.

Corn prices are CBOT moved up slightly to $152.19 for July, $153,21 for Sept and $150.77 for Dec deliveries. This is about $2 - 3 per MT higher than last week's close. Indicative FOB values (US Gulf) are $169 for July, $170 for Aug and $172 fpr Sept.

Corn to ethanol slowdown in China

Due to increase in prok prices, the staple meat in China, the goverment has put its foot down on use of corn for ethanol production.

Price of pork has gone up by about 25% over last year according to some of the reports and the price of live pigs has gone up by 71% over last year. Pork is a staple meat in China and prices must be down and affordable is the motto for the Government.

Corn prices in China have risen by 30% over last year as per the reports. Though the demand for corn in feed has gone up, pressure from the demand for industrial use, specially ethanol is behind the prices rise, as per some chinese analysts.

In 2005, China used 23 MMT of corn for ethanol purpose, that is about 16.5% of the corn crop in 2005 (139 MMT).

Amit Sachdev
Representative
U S Grains Council, India
bluecross303@gmail.com