Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Indian Coarse Grain Prices Remain Volatile; US Prices are high

Indian Coarse Grain Prices are Volatile
Maize prices by week ending Oct 27, 2007 reached Rs.6400 - 6500 per MT at the market yard and have been at this value for 2 weeks now. The prices are higher than last year (OCt 2006) prices by about 8%. even with the higher crop. The increased prices are due to higher local/domestic demand and also due to export demand to South East Asian market, specially Malaysia, Vietman and other countries.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices are stable between s.6200 - 6400 per MT range by end of Oct 27, 2007 and were higher than last year prices by 10%. Against maize, the prices are lower by just 1%.
Sorghum prices have moved up by over 11% in one week to end at Rs.9700 per MT after reaching a low of Rs.8700 per MT a week before. Prices are higher than 50% over last year and against maize prices are higher by 49%. There are some export querrie for sorghum as well, but at these prices it just may not be feasible to export sorghum.
Barley prices reached Rs.11000 per MT at the market yard and have been going up steadily. Prices are about 38% higher than last year. GOI has fixed a target of 2 MMT of barley for Rabi season, up fro, a production of 1.31 MMT last year. Thebig question though is will the farmers move from wheat to barley as the Minimum Support Price for wheat is higher a Rs.10000 per MT.
Prices in US are high
Fueled by high crude oil prices and increase in ethanol prices from $1.40 per gallon to $1.75 per gallon (on CBOT), corn prices in last 2 weeks have added $7.27 per MT to the rally for Dec delivery (up from $139.18 to $146.45) and $8.26 per MT for Mar 08 delivery (up from $144.78 to $153.04 per MT on CBOT).
FOB US Gulf values for Nov / Dec deliveries were $179.5 per MT and from Pacific North West (PNW) were $196.85 and $198.40 per MT respectevely.
About 60% of corn crop is estimated to be harvested and the harvest is lilkely to proceed faster as the winter fast approaches.
Based on the curret prices of other commodities, Informa Economics have estimated land coverage for next's years crop in US.
They have predicted that U.S. acreage planted to major crops would be as under:
Corn acreage: 85.8 million acres down 7.9 million acres from this year.
Soybean acreage: 71.7 million acres up 8 million acres from this year.
W heat acreage: 63.7 million acres up 3.3 million acres from this year.
This is mainly due to higher soy and wheat prices in the world market
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council

Saturday, October 13, 2007

Commodity prices remain volatile; Higher US Corn crop predicted

Commodity prices remain volatile
Maize prices were down by about 3.4% over last week reaching Rs.6400 - 6500 per MT level at the market yard, with lowest prices in Karnataka and there is speculation that GOI agencies will intervene to start the procurement of Maize in Karnataka. The Minimum Support Price (MSP) has been fixed at Rs.6200 per MT. The prices though on an average are higher than last year by 7.8%. There are reports that farmers have grown large quantities of while maize in Gujarat, Maharashtra and also some parts of Karnataka and will be used for human consumption.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were down by 10.8% on large quantity of arrivals in the market yard. The prices are down to Rs.6100 per MT. As against last year the prices are lower by 1%. Against maize the prices are lower by 4.8%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices have shot up by 8% over last week, reaching Rs.9400 per MT at the market yard at a time crop crop is being harvested. Last year during the same time (2nd week of October) the prices had slumped. As against last year the prices are higher by 37% and against maize prices are higher by 43%.
Barley prices are down by 6% over last week to at about Rs.10000 per MT. The prices are running higher than last year by 32%. GOI has announced the new Minimum Support Price for barley at Rs.6500 per MT and increase of 15%, which may believe will make farmers plant more barley this season so as the availability is better in April 2008. India is reeling under a severe shortage of barley this time of the year.
On CBOT, corn prices are slightly up over last week to $138.18 for Dec delivery and $144.71 for Mar delivery.
Higher US Corn crop predicted
New report from USDA released on Oct 12, 2007 predicts a yet another increase in corn crop. New estimates indicate a production of 338.27 MMT, which is 26.42% higher than 2006/07 production of 267.57 MMT. The ending stocks for the 2007/08 are projected to be high at 50.72 MMT. One of the major reasons for the increase in ending stocks in higher supplies and lower end use (as compared to last report) specially by the ethanol sector, down from 83.82 MMT to 81.28 MMT. The use in Food, Seed and Industrial sector is down from 119.126 MMT to 116.58 MMT as per the latest report. The Domestic Feed and Residual use is down from 148.59 MMT to 144.78 MMT. Due to lower supply of grain in the world the exports have been projected higher at 59.69 MMT by USDA.
In India there is lot of speculation about large maize exports due to higher production, but due to the appreciated Rupee, it just may not be feasible to export maize or barley on a long term basis and India will able to fill the gap on a short term basis.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
bluecross303@gmail.com

Saturday, October 06, 2007

Mixed Reaction on Commodities in India; Feed Grain Shortage in EU and Short corn crop in China; What can biotech do for the consumer?

Mixed reaction on Commodities in India

Maize prices in India are lower than last week by about 1% at the market yard, reaching Rs.6700 per MT. The prices are still higher than last year by 11.5%, when in the first week of Oct the prices were Rs.6010 per MT at the market yard. Some arrivals have started in Karnataka and Nizamabad and there are reports of some consolidation on export of maize from India to South East Asia, quality concerns with the buyers are a major issue.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have risen by about 7.4% over last week to Rs.6900 per MT. The prices are also higher than last year by 1.8% and against maize the prices are higher by 3%. Even though new crop has started to arrive, prices are going upward.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices have slumped by 9% over last week to Rs.8700 per MT. Against last year the prices are high by 22% and against maize the prices are higher by 30%.

Barley prices have shot through the roof and are up again this week by another 6.4% reaching over Rs.10500 per MT at the market yard. The prices are higher than last year by over 46% and the availability is getting tight day by day. Some of the buyers are of the view that FOB value at Kandla Rs.13,500 ($337) per MT is also feasible as the prices in other parts of the world are much higher. Until last week, US feed barley was offered at $350 (FOB, PNW), if that is any indication. In the long run, will Indian malting companies be able to get any barley from India or import at a higher price will be the only option.

Corn prices of CBOT softened and Dec corn dropped to $134.71 per MT, down from $146.84 per MT of last week close, lower by 8.26%. March corn also closed lower by 7.75% to 141.33 per MT.

The new report from Informa estimates the production of corn in US at 343 MMT against USDA estimate of 338 MMT.

Feed Grain Shortage in EU and short corn crop in China

USGC assessments indicate that there is likely to be a severe feed grain shortage in EU in coming years due to natural calamities and increasing demand. EU is currently buying Sorghum for feeding its livestock. For the year 2007/08 this could be as high as at 3-4 MMT for whole of EU.

USGC report from China indicate a corn crop of 139 MMT, about 6.5 MMT lower than last year's crop of 145.5 MMT. Though government figures indicate a crop of 149 MMT. Other private agencies have estimated a crop at 135 MMT, much lower than USGC estimates.

What can biotech do for the consumer?

While there have been discussions related to benefits of the technology for the farmers in the development world, Indian farmers have accepted the technology and more and more farmers are using the technology produce more and live a better life. They are also helping the environment and themselves by using less pesticides. But in all this there is also talk that the technology is only for the farmers and not for the consumers. As we move forward, there are products that are in the market or will be in the market soon that will be much safer, thanks to biotechnology.

Not only is biotechnology being used to produce more food, the technology is being used to produce better, healthier, more nutritious and tasting and safe food for the human race.
New products that are likely to be on the shelves soon include:

Golden Rice, fortified with beta-carotene that stimulates the production of vitamin A in the human body. Specially for those children who suffer from Night Blindness and often lose sight early in life.

A tomato with three times more beneficial lycopene than conventional varieties. Lycopene protects human tissue and could help prevent breast and prostate cancers as well as heart disease.

New cooking oils made from canola, corn and soybeans that contain up to 10 times more healthful vitamin E. Researchers believe vitamin E can lower the risk of cardiovascular disease and some cancers.
Plant based vaccines, made from crops such as banana or potato — which are then pulverized and administered in pill form. Researchers have developed a vaccine for hepatitis B that is similar to a traditional vaccine but can be produced by a banana for a fraction of the cost.

Food with fewer allergens. Researchers are working to reduce the allergens in rice, wheat, peanuts so as more people can enjoy these foods

There are organization which have attested to the safety of foods developed using biotechnology:
The American College of Nutrition "supports the use of biotechnology to develop food crops that contribute to global food security and enhance the safety and nutritional value of the food supply."

The American Medical Association, which recognized the "many potential benefits offered by genetically modified crops and foods … and encourages ongoing research developments in food biotechnology."
The international Society of Toxicology says "there is no reason to suppose that the process of food production through biotechnology leads to risks of a different nature than those … created by conventional breeding."

The General Accounting Office, the investigative arm of the U.S. Congress — says "biotechnology experts believe that the current regimen of tests has been adequate for ensuring that GM foods marketed to consumers are as safe as conventional foods."

The World Health Organization, which said "the benefits of biotechnology are many," including improved production and reduced pesticide use, and promise "major improvements in both food quality and nutrition."

Themajor concern most people have is that biotechnology has a potential to introduce allergens into the food supply, reports indicate that the technology will help reduce allergens in foods and reduce allergic reactions, which effect more than 50 million people worldwide.

(with inputs from whybiotech.com)

Amit Sachdev
Indian Representative
U S Grains Council
E Mail: bluecross303@gmail.com