Friday, January 25, 2008

Commodities Tumble; Bird Flu Update

Commodities tumble

Commodity prices across the board were down, partly to the this week’s stock market crash and lower corn prices attributed partly to Avian Influenza outbreak in India.

Maize prices slumped by about 2.7% over last week to Rs.7025 per MT at the market yard. The prices after a long time are lower than last year price by about 3.6%. The lower price is due to the affect of Avian Influenza and now 9 districts are affected and about 2.2 millions birds will be culled in West Bengal. Another 0.3 million are expected to be culled in Bihar (Dist Kathiar) adjoining Malda district of West Bengal. Purchases by end users have been stopped in the east, this is having this affect.

In the futures market, Maize for March delivery was quoted at Rs.8115 per MT while for May Rs.8380, lower than last week by Rs.500. Even in the spot markets the prices were lower.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices slumped slightly to Rs.695 per MT over last week and the prices were also lower than last year prices by 2.9%. Against maize the prices were lower by 6%.

Sorghum prices moved up over last week by 11.2% to Rs.9860 per MT at the market yard. Prices are ruling about 12% higher than last year and about 40% higher than maize.

Barley prices also slumped by 6.7% over last week at about Rs.9300 per MT. Prices remain higher than last year by about 20%. Prices at Jaipur (Rajasthan) market (packed) are quoted at Rs.12,120 per MT. Delivered prices to Malt plants in Haryana are quoted at Rs.12,500 per MT.

One reason for the slump in the commodity prices is the crash of the stock market, which somehow had a cascade effect on the commodity markets .

On CBOT, corn prices closed on Thursday for March delivery at $192.58 per MT, while May delivery closed at $197.31 per MT.

Bird Flu update

Since December 2007, 15 countries including India have been affected by the bird flu virus. The countries are Bangladesh, Benin, China, Egypt, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, Myanmar, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and Viet Nam that have confirmed new H5N1 outbreaks. All outbreaks have been reported in poultry stocks expect in China, Poland and United Kingdom.

The total death cases have gone up to 221, out of the 353 affected, almost 62.6% fatality. The maximum fatalities have been reported in Indonesia, where 98 people have died out of 120 affected.

As per reports from UN, it is important that countries keep a close watch on the evolving situation. The virus may not have become contagious to humans but has managed to persist in parts of Asia, Africa and probably Europe.

In Bangladesh, 21 out of the 64 districts have been infected with H5N1 and the situation seems to be worsening. The disease appears to be endemic in the country, and surveillance and control campaigns have so far not succeeded in interrupting virus transmission between provinces.
Indonesia is probably the worst hit with 31 of the 33 districts affected by Avian Influenza

As per FAO, apart from reporting the new outbreak in poultry, disinfection, culling, movement control and biosecurity on farms and markets is important, but remains remain insufficient and needs to be improved. In the first few days India has fought a battle against time to contain the bird flu, and since Jan 24, 2008, no new outbreaks have been reported.

In order to reach the far flung areas in West Bengal, GOI proposes to launch a campaign on All India Radio. The idea is to inform people about the spread of bird flu in the area, precautions people need to take and if need be to contact the closest health inspector.

In all this milieu, the poultry sector is growing and will continue to grow faster. After every episode the industry has become more stronger and it is also the consumer that is taking things on a stride and is much better informed. Though exports of eggs have been affected, it is more of a temporary phase and the domestic consumption of eggs and meat in most of the areas in not affected. Analysts believe the sector will continue to grow on long term basis.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
bluecross303@gmail.com

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