Commodity prices move up
Maize prices moved up this week by 5.6% over last week, reaching Rs.7550 per MT at market yard. The prices are also higher than last year by 3%. SPOT rates of maize at various markets Davangere Rs.7020 per MT; Nizamabad Rs.7550 per MT; and Karimnagar Rs.7442 per MT were higher than last week prices at these markets. Prices for future deliveries for May and June moved up to Rs.8955 per MT and Rs.9350 per MT from last week’s Rs.8900 per MT and Rs.9150 per MT respectively.
Government of Pakistan on the other side has removed the duty in imports if maize and there are queries for import from India. Reports indicate price of $250 (CNF Pakistan) being offered to the end users in Pakistan via Wagah border.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices also moved up this week by 3%, reaching Rs.7000 per MT, though the prices remained lower than last year by 4% and also against maize the prices remained lower by 8% at the market yards.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices on the other hand have moved lower by 5.5% to Rs.8900 per MT, but the prices are still higher than last year prices by 10%. Against maize the prices are higher by 18%.
Barley prices have started to climb down as the date with new crop comes near. Prices slumped by 4.5% this week to reach 10280 per MT, but prices are higher than last year by about 45%. SPOT prices at Jaipur were down to Rs.12257 per MT from Rs.12435 per MT last week. While April delivery prices are up to Rs.10754 per MT against 10350 per MT last week, prices for May – July delivery were lower at Rs.10400 – Rs.11100 per MT range.
Corn on CBOT for March delivery was down from last week’s close to 214.94 to $210 per MT. May delivery also was down to $215.42 from last week’s close at 219.62. July futures closed at $220 per MT.
World commodity prices to remain high – FAPRI report
A report by Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) has indicated that the commodity prices are likely to remain at historic highs in the next decade. FAPRI has come out with their new 10 year projection for U.S. and international commodity markets.
The world corn price which increased to $ 198.17 per MT in 2007/08 because of increased demand from two sector, ethanol and livestock and also exports to growing markets, will sustain the high price level over the rest of the decade.
The world wheat price is expected to settle at $264.05 for 2017/18 period as per FAPRI from a high of $313.55 per metric ton. The lower prices settlement will be due to adjustments in supply and demand as per the report.
Other forecasts by FAPRI include:
1. Global net trade in ethanol is projected to reach 13.64 billion litres by 2017, up from the current 9.56 billion litres. The prices of ethanol as per the report are likely to lower in the first half of the decade due to strong supplies. The prices are likely to stabilize at $0.40 per litre by 2017.
2. The price of sugar over the next decade due to lower exportable surplus from EU and higher ethanol production in Brazil will be higher by 10.7% over the next decade
3. Within the Soybean complex the trade will increase by 17-32% and the production of soybean will increase to 297 MMT by 2017.
4. Consumption of Palm oil will increase by 46% in the next decade.
5. Sustained income and population growth will lead to higher per capita meat consumption and the meat production will reach 248.5 MMT and the meat trade will also expand to 20.9 million metric tons by 2017/18.
6. The world prices of butter, cheese, non-fat dry milk (SMP), and whole milk powder, increased to record levels in 2007, due to global demand and limited growth in supplies. The higher prices has led to higher investments and higher production in many countries and because of the higher production the world dairy prices are expected to taper in mid-term, but strong economic growth and rising population, will lift the demand and higher prices are forecast in the long term by FAPRI.
Due to the strong demand of commodities including oil, wheat, rice, pulses etc due to sustained economic growth in India and all across Asia, the prices of commodities will remain high and it may not be possible to keep a reign on the inflation, unless some drastic measures are taken. The rate of crossed the 5% RBI limit to reach 5.02 for the week ending Feb 23, 2008.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
bluecross303@gmail.com
Maize prices moved up this week by 5.6% over last week, reaching Rs.7550 per MT at market yard. The prices are also higher than last year by 3%. SPOT rates of maize at various markets Davangere Rs.7020 per MT; Nizamabad Rs.7550 per MT; and Karimnagar Rs.7442 per MT were higher than last week prices at these markets. Prices for future deliveries for May and June moved up to Rs.8955 per MT and Rs.9350 per MT from last week’s Rs.8900 per MT and Rs.9150 per MT respectively.
Government of Pakistan on the other side has removed the duty in imports if maize and there are queries for import from India. Reports indicate price of $250 (CNF Pakistan) being offered to the end users in Pakistan via Wagah border.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices also moved up this week by 3%, reaching Rs.7000 per MT, though the prices remained lower than last year by 4% and also against maize the prices remained lower by 8% at the market yards.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices on the other hand have moved lower by 5.5% to Rs.8900 per MT, but the prices are still higher than last year prices by 10%. Against maize the prices are higher by 18%.
Barley prices have started to climb down as the date with new crop comes near. Prices slumped by 4.5% this week to reach 10280 per MT, but prices are higher than last year by about 45%. SPOT prices at Jaipur were down to Rs.12257 per MT from Rs.12435 per MT last week. While April delivery prices are up to Rs.10754 per MT against 10350 per MT last week, prices for May – July delivery were lower at Rs.10400 – Rs.11100 per MT range.
Corn on CBOT for March delivery was down from last week’s close to 214.94 to $210 per MT. May delivery also was down to $215.42 from last week’s close at 219.62. July futures closed at $220 per MT.
World commodity prices to remain high – FAPRI report
A report by Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) has indicated that the commodity prices are likely to remain at historic highs in the next decade. FAPRI has come out with their new 10 year projection for U.S. and international commodity markets.
The world corn price which increased to $ 198.17 per MT in 2007/08 because of increased demand from two sector, ethanol and livestock and also exports to growing markets, will sustain the high price level over the rest of the decade.
The world wheat price is expected to settle at $264.05 for 2017/18 period as per FAPRI from a high of $313.55 per metric ton. The lower prices settlement will be due to adjustments in supply and demand as per the report.
Other forecasts by FAPRI include:
1. Global net trade in ethanol is projected to reach 13.64 billion litres by 2017, up from the current 9.56 billion litres. The prices of ethanol as per the report are likely to lower in the first half of the decade due to strong supplies. The prices are likely to stabilize at $0.40 per litre by 2017.
2. The price of sugar over the next decade due to lower exportable surplus from EU and higher ethanol production in Brazil will be higher by 10.7% over the next decade
3. Within the Soybean complex the trade will increase by 17-32% and the production of soybean will increase to 297 MMT by 2017.
4. Consumption of Palm oil will increase by 46% in the next decade.
5. Sustained income and population growth will lead to higher per capita meat consumption and the meat production will reach 248.5 MMT and the meat trade will also expand to 20.9 million metric tons by 2017/18.
6. The world prices of butter, cheese, non-fat dry milk (SMP), and whole milk powder, increased to record levels in 2007, due to global demand and limited growth in supplies. The higher prices has led to higher investments and higher production in many countries and because of the higher production the world dairy prices are expected to taper in mid-term, but strong economic growth and rising population, will lift the demand and higher prices are forecast in the long term by FAPRI.
Due to the strong demand of commodities including oil, wheat, rice, pulses etc due to sustained economic growth in India and all across Asia, the prices of commodities will remain high and it may not be possible to keep a reign on the inflation, unless some drastic measures are taken. The rate of crossed the 5% RBI limit to reach 5.02 for the week ending Feb 23, 2008.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
bluecross303@gmail.com
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