Higher production estimates, lower prices of commodities
As per the third advance estimates released recently, maize production has been estimated at 18.54 MMT against last year’s production of 15.1 MMT, a growth of 22.6%. The increased production is attributed to more crop area and also good monsoon. The second estimate projected the maize production at 16.78 MMT.
Production of Sorghum has also been revised to 7.73 MMT, 8.1% increase over 2006/07 Production of Pearl Millet has been estimated at 9.65 MMT, 14.6% more than 2006/07. The coarse cereal basket is expect to yield 39.67 MMT in 2007/08 against 33.92 MMT, a growth of 17%.
In wake of the high production numbers estimated by GOI in the third advance estimates of agricultural production, prices of all coarse cereals except barley tumbled this week, with maize down by 2.3% to Rs.7060 per MT, Pearl Millet (Bajra) down by 0.4% to Rs.7280 per MT and Sorghum down by 2.7% to Rs.9860 per MT. The prices of barley though went up by 4.2% this week to Rs.9550 per MT.
Maize prices were also lower than last year by 2.8%, while prices of pearl millet and Sorghum were up by 4% and 12% respectively. Barley prices were up by 24% over last year.
While the prices at the market yard may be higher, the delivered prices to end users have shown an upward trend over last year, due to increased cost of mandi Tax (levied on value of produce), cost of labour, jute bags and also transport cost.
Prices in US have shown a declining trend and may and July delivery prices are down by approximately 3.7% to $227.23 per MT and $232.50 per MT respectively.
IGC predicts a lower corn and higher barley crop
International Grains Council in its April 24, 2008 update has predicted a lower corn and a higher barley crop for the year 2008/09.
While corn production is predicted at 762 MMT in 2008/09, down from 775 MMT of 2007/09, the trade is also expected to be down to 89 MMT in 2008/09 from 99 MMT of 2007/08. The consumption though is expected to go up from 774 MMT in 2007/08 to 784 MMT in 2008/09, thus reducing the world ending stocks to 93 MMT in 2008/09 from 114 MMT in 2007/09.
Barley production on the other hand is predicted to increase from 136 MMT to 149 MMT in 2008/09. The trade is also expected to increase by 1 MMTto reach 16 MMT in 2008/09 and the consumption is expected to increase by 4.2% to reach 146 MMT in 2008/09. The ending stocks are also likely to increase to 23 MMT in 2008/09.
As per the third advance estimates released recently, maize production has been estimated at 18.54 MMT against last year’s production of 15.1 MMT, a growth of 22.6%. The increased production is attributed to more crop area and also good monsoon. The second estimate projected the maize production at 16.78 MMT.
Production of Sorghum has also been revised to 7.73 MMT, 8.1% increase over 2006/07 Production of Pearl Millet has been estimated at 9.65 MMT, 14.6% more than 2006/07. The coarse cereal basket is expect to yield 39.67 MMT in 2007/08 against 33.92 MMT, a growth of 17%.
In wake of the high production numbers estimated by GOI in the third advance estimates of agricultural production, prices of all coarse cereals except barley tumbled this week, with maize down by 2.3% to Rs.7060 per MT, Pearl Millet (Bajra) down by 0.4% to Rs.7280 per MT and Sorghum down by 2.7% to Rs.9860 per MT. The prices of barley though went up by 4.2% this week to Rs.9550 per MT.
Maize prices were also lower than last year by 2.8%, while prices of pearl millet and Sorghum were up by 4% and 12% respectively. Barley prices were up by 24% over last year.
While the prices at the market yard may be higher, the delivered prices to end users have shown an upward trend over last year, due to increased cost of mandi Tax (levied on value of produce), cost of labour, jute bags and also transport cost.
Prices in US have shown a declining trend and may and July delivery prices are down by approximately 3.7% to $227.23 per MT and $232.50 per MT respectively.
IGC predicts a lower corn and higher barley crop
International Grains Council in its April 24, 2008 update has predicted a lower corn and a higher barley crop for the year 2008/09.
While corn production is predicted at 762 MMT in 2008/09, down from 775 MMT of 2007/09, the trade is also expected to be down to 89 MMT in 2008/09 from 99 MMT of 2007/08. The consumption though is expected to go up from 774 MMT in 2007/08 to 784 MMT in 2008/09, thus reducing the world ending stocks to 93 MMT in 2008/09 from 114 MMT in 2007/09.
Barley production on the other hand is predicted to increase from 136 MMT to 149 MMT in 2008/09. The trade is also expected to increase by 1 MMTto reach 16 MMT in 2008/09 and the consumption is expected to increase by 4.2% to reach 146 MMT in 2008/09. The ending stocks are also likely to increase to 23 MMT in 2008/09.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
bluecross303@gmail.com
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