Saturday, May 31, 2008

Commodity price up across the board; Release of conservation acres in US will help stabilize prices

Commodity price up across the board

Maize prices moved up by about 2% this week at the market yard reaching Rs.7340 per MT. Prices were about 4.3% higher than last year prices. Average price for the month of May was Rs.7300, about 4.3% higher than May 2007 prices at the market yard. End users are finding it difficult to cover stocks.

Pearl Millet (bajra) prices remained stable at about Rs.6950 per MT, but were 9% higher than the prices last year. The average for the month of may 2008 was Rs.7250 per MT against Rs.6850 per MT in May 2007, an increase of 5.8%. Pearl Millet prices were about 5.6% lower than maize prices.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved up by 1.5% at Rs.9860 per MT and were 4.8% higher than last year prices. Monthly average for May 2008 was Rs.10285 per MT, against Rs.9000 per MT in May 2007, an increase of 14.3%. Against maize the sorghum prices were higher by 25.6%.

Barley prices jumped about 8% this week to reach Rs.11,000 per MT at the market yard (in loose). The prices are running about 39% higher than last year. Month average for may 2008 was Rs.10380 per MT against Rs.6865 per MT, an increase of 51% over May 2007.
Even though GOI has predicted the agricultural growth of 3.5% for the year 2007/08, which has led to GDP growth of 9%, the high rate of inflation at 8.1% on week ending May 17, 2008 is negating all the effects of high growth.

Corn prices on CBOT remained stable at $239.9 and $ 214 per MT for July and Sept delivery.

Release of conservation acres in US will help stabilize prices

US has about 34.7 million acres of land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has indicated that the government would open up 24 million conservation acres (69%) for grazing, a new tool the government is using to ease costs for livestock raisers.

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) land could be used for hay or forage after the primary nesting season for grass-nesting birds has finished, which typically happens in late July and early August. This will help relieve stress on the cattle producers and keep the feed prices stable.

The 24 million acres translates to 18 MMT of forage worth $1.2 billion. This will significantly increase the amount of feed available to the livestock sector in USA.

USDA report indicated that US will produce 308 MMT of corn in 2008/09 and only 134.63 MMT will be used for feed and residual purposes in 2008/09 against 156.22 MMT estimated use in 2007/08, down by 13.82%. One of the major reasons of this change is high corn price in US and also availability of Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles (DDGS), which is replacing part of the corn in livestock diets.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
bluecross303@gmail.com

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dear Amit,

Good Day!

I have been looking for US Grains Council latest market report of India.

Please advise from where I can get it.

Thanks & Regards,
Saurabh Gautam

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