Saturday, July 26, 2008

Commodity prices increase further; Genetics and dairy business

Commodity prices increase further

Maize prices climbed another 1.3% this week at the market yard. The prices were average at Rs.8600 per MT. The prices are 13% higher than last year. In the future markets prices for Jul – Nov deliveries were all over 10,000 MT. Delivered prices in poultry pockets of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra have reached over Rs.11,500. Fed prices are close to Rs.16000 per MT.

In the futures market, the prices for Aug and September deliveries were quoted at Rs.10750 per MT and are up by 7.5% on an average. Oct deliveries prices are up by 4.5% over last week and Nov deliveries have gained another 1% over last week, closing at Rs.9945 per MT. In the SPOT markets, Nizamabad and Karimnagar in Andhra Pradesh have added 12.3% and 12.8% to its tally to close at about 10,950 per MT on an average, while in Davangere in Karnataka, the prices were Rs.10,365 per MT, 8.5% higher than last week.

It is getting difficult for the farmers and the industry to sustain at such high prices. Be it the poultry industry or the dairy industry, the increasing commodity prices are hitting on the bottom lines and it is not possible to increase the sale prices of the end products, like meat, milk and eggs to compensate for the increase in commodity prices.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have moved up by 8.6% this week to reach Rs.7880 per MT. The prices are about 17% higher than last year. Pearl Millet prices are still lower than maize by 9% in production areas at the market yard level, making it a good buy for use in broiler and layer rations.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices this week were lower than last week by 0.5%, close to Rs.10780 per MT. Prices are about 15.7% higher than last year and 20% higher than maize in the market yard,

Barley prices eased by 0.6% this week to Rs.10980 per MT at the market yard. The prices are still higher than last year by 33%. Even though the average prices moved lower, SPOT prices in Jaipur moved by 1.2% over last week to Rs.12715 per MT.

Corn on CBOT slipped further, closing at $227.23 and $234.79 per MT for Sept and Dec delivery respectively. The prices are about 5% lower than the last week’s close.

Genetics and dairy business

Of the three pillars of dairy sector (Genetics, Management and Feeding), genetics is one of the “Key Components” that can help in shaping a robust and a viable Diary Industry. Countries that have used genetics as a tool have enhanced productivity of animals and have also helped in sustaining farmer profitability by increasing milk production and components.

Countries like Netherlands, United Kingdom, Japan have benefitted tremendously from the open door policies of genetic imports which helped the farmers on these countries produce milk, much more than their counterparts earlier in another era.

Data from USDA and other organizations reveals that in Netherlands the growth of the dairy industry has been tremendous. In 40 years (1960 - 2000), the average production has gone up from 4200 kg/cow/lactation to 7000 kg/cow/lactation. Netherlands in 1960 produced 6.72 MMT of milk from 1.62 million animals, which in 2000 were only 1.5 million and produced 11.17 MMT of milk.

In United Kingdom, the number of animals in production reduced considerably from 2.6 million in 1996 to 2.0 million in 2006, but the average production went up from 5600 lit/cow/annum to 7000 lit/cow/annum.

Japan in 1995 produced 8.3 MMT of milk from 1.03 million animals, with an average production of 8106 kg/cow. In 2005, the total number of animals were down by 12.6% to 0.93 million. The total production of milk though remained same at 8.3 MMT, which an average productivity of 8935 kg/cow.

In USA, the milk productivity has almost tripled in 55 years. In 1940 the average milk production was 2100 kg/cow/lactation, which in 1995 was 7441 kg/cow/lactation.

In 1995, USA produced 70 MMT of milk from 9.4 million animals, with an average production of 7441 kg/cow. The total production of milk in 2006, rose to 79 MMT from 8.9 million animals, with an average production of 8800 kg/cow.

India is number one in milk production, but the total animal numbers are also the highest, thus giving a low productivity/animal. With an average productivity of 1000 kg/year, it is difficult for farmers to make money. Recent survey indicates that the commodity prices have gone up by an average of 20%, while the milk prices have increased by 12%. The cost of production of milk in last 3 years have increased by over 30%, due to increase in feed costs and labor costs.

Better genetics can play a role in enhancing productivity. Better feeding and management practices for the elite animals produced by better genetics will help in sustaining milk production and helping farmers to expand dairy farming business. In fact less number of animals will need to be fed to produce same or more quantity of milk, better animals can be produced by using better genetics.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
bluecross303@gmail.com

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Commodity prices move up in India – strain on end users

Commodity prices move up in India – strain on end users

Maize prices move up by another 4% this week at market yard, averaging Rs.8430 per MT. The prices are 11% higher than last year, during the same time. Delivery prices this week at some locations were close to Rs.11000 per MT, Bangalore Rs.10,700; Hyderabad R.10,900; Pune Rs.11,000. Soybean Meal prices are also soaring and have reached Rs.24500 per MT (delivered Hyderabad).

In comparison to last week, maize prices in the futures market have moved up considerably, Jul contract up by 3.9%; Aug up by 3.37%, Sept added 1.82% to its tally and Oct and Nov closed 5.4% higher than last week’s close. In the SPOT market too, maize prices moved up with Nizamabad and Karimnagar adding 4.2% and 6.31% respectively over last week, while Davangere Spot prices moved up 0.36% over last week. The question being asked, if the production is at its highest (19.31 MMT), why are the prices so high and deliveries poor.

The high prices of ingredients has increased the prices of feed to the farmers, reach Rs.14000 to Rs.15000 per MT for layers and broilers respectively. Just looking at layer feed price, the cost of feed per egg is about Rs.1.82, thus the cost of production is close to Rs.2.20 or higher per egg (adding management and interest costs).

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were down by 0.7% to reach Rs.7260 per MT at the market yard. but the prices are 3.6% higher than last year. The demand of pearl millet as a grin for poultry feed has surged due to its lower price than corn (17%), but this may not last for long as the prices are likely to go up in near future.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved by 0.5% to level at Rs.10825 per MT. Prices are 14% higher than last year. The prices are 21% higher than maize.

Barley prices have risen by3% this week to reach Rs.11050 per MT. The prices are 34% higher than last year. In the last one week, prices of barley have been stable.

Corn prices in the US fell further this week by 10 – 11% for Sept – Dec contracts. Corn on CBOT closed at $239 – 247 per MT. One of the reason attributed to the fall in prices is the good weather US corn belt is experiencing in the last couple of days, which will help the crop.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
bluecross303@gmail.com

Saturday, July 12, 2008

Commodity prices up - despite higher production estimates; Corn prices lower in US – on good weather and USDA projects lower production

Commodity prices up - despite higher production estimates

Government of India this week came out with the 4th Advance estimates for food grain production. The estimates project a production of +230 MMT of food grain production, including 19.31 MMT of maize, up by 4% over last estimates of 18.54 MMT and 27.8% over last years production of 15.10 MMT.

Despite high production estimates the future prices were higher and in the last two days (since the estimates were announced) the prices have moved up. July futures move up by 3.5% to Rs.9315 per MT on Friday (Jul 11, 2008), up from Rs.9000 per MT on Jul 10, 2008. Similarly August contract was up 3% to Rs.9640 per MT, Sept contract up 4% to Rs.9840 per MT and Oct contract up 2% to Rs.9350 per MT. November contract opened at Rs.9360 per MT.

On an average the prices at the Mandi were also up by about 1.3% over last week at Rs.Rs.8175 per MT. prices were higher than last year by about 10%. This indicates that demand and supply has taken care of the prices and prices are likely to go up on limited supplies.

With the monsoon covering almost all parts of the country, area under maize is expected to go up as the prices at the mandi are currently 30% higher than the Minimum Support Prices (MSP) and GOI has not announced the MSP for the year 2008/09. There is cause of concern about sowing in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka due to lack of rains in some parts though. Any delay in sowing will affect the productivity in these areas.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices went up by 1.72% to Rs.7300 per MT levels at the market yard. Delivered prices at some locations (south India) were close to Rs.9300 per MT, similar to maize prices, but layers farmers are able to use the product. The prices are running 11.5% higher than last year and about 12% lower than maize at the market yard.

Sorghum (Jowar)prices also went up this week to Rs.10774, adding 5.75% to the prices. Prices are about 10% higher than last year and 24% higher than maize.

Barley prices were down of slower exports. Prices wee close to Rs.10,729 per MT, a loss of 2.4% over last week, but prices are higher than last year by 34.4%.

Corn prices lower in US – on good weather and USDA projects lower production

As good weather (near perfect) prevailed in US for a week in the corn belt, corn prices shed almost 9.5% for July – Dec contracts, close in the range of $267 – 279 per MT from $293 – 306 per MT last week.

USDA also came out with the new production numbers. For the year 2007/08 corn ending stocks are projected higher at 21 MMT due to reductions in food, seed, and industrial use. Production for 2008/09, however, is projected lower at 297.57 MMT. As indicated in the Acreage report, heavy June rains and flooding reduced the share of harvested area in the higher- yielding Corn Belt states.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative,
U S Grains Council
bluecross303@gmail.com

Saturday, July 05, 2008

Maize prices tumble in India – courtesy ban on exports

Maize prices tumble in India – courtesy ban on exports

As inflation touched 11.42% for the week ending Jun 14 (announced on Jun 28), GOI cam into action and in-order to tame the prices banned exports of maize from India on July 03, 2008 until Oct 15, 2008. Current export numbers available indicate that about 2.6 MMT of maize have been exported till date.

Maize prices were close to Rs.8394 per MT at the market yard for the week ending June 27, about 1.3% above previous week’s close. By July 2 the prices had stated to come down and were down by 3% to Rs.8143 per MT at the market yard, probably due to the rumors of ban coming into place. By the evening of July 04 the maize prices at the market yard were down to Rs.8067 per MT at the market yard a further down of about 1%. In two weeks the prices were down by about 3.9%.

The future markets crashed following the ban on maize exports. The markets were down by about 9% for Jul/Aug/Sept delivery in 2 days. The Oct delivery prices were down by about 5%. The spot prices at production centers are also down by about 1-3% depending on the location.

For how long the prices were stay at this level is anybody’s guess, but the industry sources believe, that the lower prices will help the poultry and the starch sector in reducing cost of production.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were down in the last week of Jun by 4% to Rs.6887 per MT at the market yard. By the end of the first week of July the prices were up by 4.3% to Rs.7180 per MT the market yard. The commodity is being used by poultry sector as an energy source and the current prices are down by 12% against maize.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices in the last week of June were down by 2% over previous week to Rs.10344 per MT and by the first week of July the prices were Rs.10190 per MT, another drop of 1.5%. The prices though are 21% higher than maize.

Barley prices in the last week of June were Rs.10969 at the market yard, about 4.3% lower than the previous week. By the first week of July the prices were up to Rs.11030 per MT. The futures barley prices were in the region of Rs.13100 – 13500 per MT for July – Oct and fir Dec delivery the prices were close to Rs.13750. The Spot prices at Jaipur have also gone up to Rs.12830 per MT.

Corn prices in US were down this week. CBOT prices for Jul, Sept and Dec delivery were $ 293, $298 and $306 per MT respectively. The prices were down by about $3.5 – 7.5 per MT over previous week.

Corn prices FOB US Gulf, were indicated at $313 - $316 for Jul-Sep, FOB PMW prices were indicated at $351 – 352 per MT. The freight rates have also come down this week. US Gulf – Asia was indicated at $126-$127 per MT, while US PNW – Asia was close to $75-76 per MT for a Panamax (+55000 tons).

As per the USDA report the crop status for corn in Good to excellent condition is 61% this week against 73% last year at the same time. For soybean the Good to excellent status is for 58%, against 68% last year at the same time.

DDGS prices FOB US Gulf are close to $237 per MT, while prices FOB PNW are close to $268 per MT. This is about 75% the value of corn and as per experts it is still a best buy in the times of high feed ingredient prices. The last indicative prices for delivery to South China port would be $350 per MT for a 36% profat product (26% protein and 10% fat).

Amit Sachdev
India Represenative
U S Grains Council
bluecross303@gmail.com