Saturday, July 26, 2008

Commodity prices increase further; Genetics and dairy business

Commodity prices increase further

Maize prices climbed another 1.3% this week at the market yard. The prices were average at Rs.8600 per MT. The prices are 13% higher than last year. In the future markets prices for Jul – Nov deliveries were all over 10,000 MT. Delivered prices in poultry pockets of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra have reached over Rs.11,500. Fed prices are close to Rs.16000 per MT.

In the futures market, the prices for Aug and September deliveries were quoted at Rs.10750 per MT and are up by 7.5% on an average. Oct deliveries prices are up by 4.5% over last week and Nov deliveries have gained another 1% over last week, closing at Rs.9945 per MT. In the SPOT markets, Nizamabad and Karimnagar in Andhra Pradesh have added 12.3% and 12.8% to its tally to close at about 10,950 per MT on an average, while in Davangere in Karnataka, the prices were Rs.10,365 per MT, 8.5% higher than last week.

It is getting difficult for the farmers and the industry to sustain at such high prices. Be it the poultry industry or the dairy industry, the increasing commodity prices are hitting on the bottom lines and it is not possible to increase the sale prices of the end products, like meat, milk and eggs to compensate for the increase in commodity prices.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have moved up by 8.6% this week to reach Rs.7880 per MT. The prices are about 17% higher than last year. Pearl Millet prices are still lower than maize by 9% in production areas at the market yard level, making it a good buy for use in broiler and layer rations.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices this week were lower than last week by 0.5%, close to Rs.10780 per MT. Prices are about 15.7% higher than last year and 20% higher than maize in the market yard,

Barley prices eased by 0.6% this week to Rs.10980 per MT at the market yard. The prices are still higher than last year by 33%. Even though the average prices moved lower, SPOT prices in Jaipur moved by 1.2% over last week to Rs.12715 per MT.

Corn on CBOT slipped further, closing at $227.23 and $234.79 per MT for Sept and Dec delivery respectively. The prices are about 5% lower than the last week’s close.

Genetics and dairy business

Of the three pillars of dairy sector (Genetics, Management and Feeding), genetics is one of the “Key Components” that can help in shaping a robust and a viable Diary Industry. Countries that have used genetics as a tool have enhanced productivity of animals and have also helped in sustaining farmer profitability by increasing milk production and components.

Countries like Netherlands, United Kingdom, Japan have benefitted tremendously from the open door policies of genetic imports which helped the farmers on these countries produce milk, much more than their counterparts earlier in another era.

Data from USDA and other organizations reveals that in Netherlands the growth of the dairy industry has been tremendous. In 40 years (1960 - 2000), the average production has gone up from 4200 kg/cow/lactation to 7000 kg/cow/lactation. Netherlands in 1960 produced 6.72 MMT of milk from 1.62 million animals, which in 2000 were only 1.5 million and produced 11.17 MMT of milk.

In United Kingdom, the number of animals in production reduced considerably from 2.6 million in 1996 to 2.0 million in 2006, but the average production went up from 5600 lit/cow/annum to 7000 lit/cow/annum.

Japan in 1995 produced 8.3 MMT of milk from 1.03 million animals, with an average production of 8106 kg/cow. In 2005, the total number of animals were down by 12.6% to 0.93 million. The total production of milk though remained same at 8.3 MMT, which an average productivity of 8935 kg/cow.

In USA, the milk productivity has almost tripled in 55 years. In 1940 the average milk production was 2100 kg/cow/lactation, which in 1995 was 7441 kg/cow/lactation.

In 1995, USA produced 70 MMT of milk from 9.4 million animals, with an average production of 7441 kg/cow. The total production of milk in 2006, rose to 79 MMT from 8.9 million animals, with an average production of 8800 kg/cow.

India is number one in milk production, but the total animal numbers are also the highest, thus giving a low productivity/animal. With an average productivity of 1000 kg/year, it is difficult for farmers to make money. Recent survey indicates that the commodity prices have gone up by an average of 20%, while the milk prices have increased by 12%. The cost of production of milk in last 3 years have increased by over 30%, due to increase in feed costs and labor costs.

Better genetics can play a role in enhancing productivity. Better feeding and management practices for the elite animals produced by better genetics will help in sustaining milk production and helping farmers to expand dairy farming business. In fact less number of animals will need to be fed to produce same or more quantity of milk, better animals can be produced by using better genetics.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
bluecross303@gmail.com

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