Maize down, while other coarse cereal prices move up
Maize prices were Stable this week in India and were close to Rs.7900 per MT at the Market yard level. Prices are about 6% below the Minimum Support prices announced by GOI. Against last year, the prices are higher by about 14% at the market yard level.
In the future market, the prices were down by 0.6 – 1.6% for Dec – Feb delivery against last week. For Dec 2008 and Jan 2009 delivery pries were below MSP. Even in the SPOT markets of Davangere and Nizamabad and prices were down by 0.3 and 1.3% respectively against last week. Only in Karimnagar the prices were up by about 1.5% to Rs.8633 per MT.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were up this week by 6.3% against last week, reaching Rs7750 per MT at the market yard. Against last year, the prices were higher by 13%. Against maize, the prices are lower by 2% only.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices also went up against last week by 3.5% to Rs.9180 per MT. Pries are lower than last year by 10.5% and against maize the prices are higher by 14%.
Barley prices have remained stable on an average at Rs.9200 -9300 per MT range. And are lower than last year values by about 12%. In the future market as well the prices were down by 3% for Dec delivery to Rs.9990 and for April lower by 4% to Rs.10,442 per MT.
On CBOT, the prices were under $3.00 per Bushel (lowest) and lost 16% against last week’s Dec and March close. The delivery for the two months were indicated at $115.5 and 121.72 per MT. respectively. Indicative FOB values (US Gulf) would be close by $135/142 per MT. CNF values to SEA region would be close to $180/185 per MT.
There are many factors being attributed to the drop in corn prices in US, including higher dollar, lower crude, November employment report, which shows the highest unemployment numbers since 1974. This shows that the economic slowdown is there and demand erosion continues. In addition Government of Argentina has lowered export taxes on corn from 25% to 20%, making Argentine corn much cheaper. There are reports that Argentine and Brazilian corn is available in SEA region at $165/170 per MT.
Bird flu and compartmentalization
India is in the grip of BIRD FLU once again. This time in Assam in the KAMRUP district, which has Megahlaya in the South and beyond that is Bangladesh. The recent bird flu outbreak has hit exports, which were already down. It has been two years now that Indian’s exports of eggs and poultry meat has been hit badly because of bird flu. The last case of bird flu was reported in West Bengal in Feb 2008, it was only in mid November 2008 that India was declared bird flu free.
It is not only the exports that are hit, but demand of eggs and poultry meat in the region also takes a beating. It has been recognized that eradicating BIRD FLU from the geographical area is almost impossible and it is important to manage the same and plan systems which, will help the industry move forward. The need is to avoid losses and continue the growth of the industry.
The World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) included the use of compartments in its guidelines on avian influenza control in 2005, where it is the stressed that compartmentalization as a strategy can be adopted by countries but attention must be given to the production level and industry characteristics features. It will also be important then that the countries have trade agreements which define compartmentalization, so as trade is not affected.
To understand, compartmentalization means creating/identifying small groups of farms or processing units based on the scale of production and other shared characteristics in order that approaches to controlling disease are geared to these identified compartments rather than the entire poultry industry
Farms with low input low output management such as households rearing backyard native chickens could be classed in a completely separate compartment to that of a high bio-secure intensive operation raising thousands of broilers for international markets.
The grouping thus is based on the scale of production and inputs, and particularly on a common bio-security system within a compartment, and degree of traceability of animals and products with in the chain. There is a possibility that the geographic space occupied by a compartment is not continuous, provided that bio-security is maintained and thus all of the operations within one vertically integrated poultry company could be considered as a compartment, even if they are physically separated.
Compartmentalization as per OIE can only be effective when seen as part of a a national disease control strategy, requiring surveillance and monitoring activities, stamping out of outbreaks and on-farm bio-security, and protection for the compartment from incursion of disease agents.
In such a situation, when AI outbreaks are reported in backward systems, the large, bio-secure units continue production of chicks, meat, & eggs, and exports that are subject to the trade agreement.
In the new system of compartmentalization, certain changes in management would also be seen in different compartments.
An earlier report of Feb 02, 2008 can be seen on zoning
http://usgcindiamarketreport.blogspot.com/2008/02/commodity-prices-move-up-zoning-of.html
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
bluecross303@gmail.com
Maize prices were Stable this week in India and were close to Rs.7900 per MT at the Market yard level. Prices are about 6% below the Minimum Support prices announced by GOI. Against last year, the prices are higher by about 14% at the market yard level.
In the future market, the prices were down by 0.6 – 1.6% for Dec – Feb delivery against last week. For Dec 2008 and Jan 2009 delivery pries were below MSP. Even in the SPOT markets of Davangere and Nizamabad and prices were down by 0.3 and 1.3% respectively against last week. Only in Karimnagar the prices were up by about 1.5% to Rs.8633 per MT.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were up this week by 6.3% against last week, reaching Rs7750 per MT at the market yard. Against last year, the prices were higher by 13%. Against maize, the prices are lower by 2% only.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices also went up against last week by 3.5% to Rs.9180 per MT. Pries are lower than last year by 10.5% and against maize the prices are higher by 14%.
Barley prices have remained stable on an average at Rs.9200 -9300 per MT range. And are lower than last year values by about 12%. In the future market as well the prices were down by 3% for Dec delivery to Rs.9990 and for April lower by 4% to Rs.10,442 per MT.
On CBOT, the prices were under $3.00 per Bushel (lowest) and lost 16% against last week’s Dec and March close. The delivery for the two months were indicated at $115.5 and 121.72 per MT. respectively. Indicative FOB values (US Gulf) would be close by $135/142 per MT. CNF values to SEA region would be close to $180/185 per MT.
There are many factors being attributed to the drop in corn prices in US, including higher dollar, lower crude, November employment report, which shows the highest unemployment numbers since 1974. This shows that the economic slowdown is there and demand erosion continues. In addition Government of Argentina has lowered export taxes on corn from 25% to 20%, making Argentine corn much cheaper. There are reports that Argentine and Brazilian corn is available in SEA region at $165/170 per MT.
Bird flu and compartmentalization
India is in the grip of BIRD FLU once again. This time in Assam in the KAMRUP district, which has Megahlaya in the South and beyond that is Bangladesh. The recent bird flu outbreak has hit exports, which were already down. It has been two years now that Indian’s exports of eggs and poultry meat has been hit badly because of bird flu. The last case of bird flu was reported in West Bengal in Feb 2008, it was only in mid November 2008 that India was declared bird flu free.
It is not only the exports that are hit, but demand of eggs and poultry meat in the region also takes a beating. It has been recognized that eradicating BIRD FLU from the geographical area is almost impossible and it is important to manage the same and plan systems which, will help the industry move forward. The need is to avoid losses and continue the growth of the industry.
The World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) included the use of compartments in its guidelines on avian influenza control in 2005, where it is the stressed that compartmentalization as a strategy can be adopted by countries but attention must be given to the production level and industry characteristics features. It will also be important then that the countries have trade agreements which define compartmentalization, so as trade is not affected.
To understand, compartmentalization means creating/identifying small groups of farms or processing units based on the scale of production and other shared characteristics in order that approaches to controlling disease are geared to these identified compartments rather than the entire poultry industry
Farms with low input low output management such as households rearing backyard native chickens could be classed in a completely separate compartment to that of a high bio-secure intensive operation raising thousands of broilers for international markets.
The grouping thus is based on the scale of production and inputs, and particularly on a common bio-security system within a compartment, and degree of traceability of animals and products with in the chain. There is a possibility that the geographic space occupied by a compartment is not continuous, provided that bio-security is maintained and thus all of the operations within one vertically integrated poultry company could be considered as a compartment, even if they are physically separated.
Compartmentalization as per OIE can only be effective when seen as part of a a national disease control strategy, requiring surveillance and monitoring activities, stamping out of outbreaks and on-farm bio-security, and protection for the compartment from incursion of disease agents.
In such a situation, when AI outbreaks are reported in backward systems, the large, bio-secure units continue production of chicks, meat, & eggs, and exports that are subject to the trade agreement.
In the new system of compartmentalization, certain changes in management would also be seen in different compartments.
An earlier report of Feb 02, 2008 can be seen on zoning
http://usgcindiamarketreport.blogspot.com/2008/02/commodity-prices-move-up-zoning-of.html
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
bluecross303@gmail.com
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