Saturday, October 25, 2008

Mixed bag for coarse grain prices in India, prices in US tumble; Corn as health food; More DDGS from US corn ethanol industry

Mixed bag for coarse grain prices in India, prices in US tumble

Maize prices are stable at the market yard at Rs.8000 – 8100 per MT, The prices are about 20% higher than last year prices. The above are average prices, pan India, but in some production areas delivered prices are ranging from Rs.10,000 – 10500 per MT. With these prices in the local markets, export of corn may not be feasible, but the prices are unlikely to go down much and may hover close to the MSP value of Rs.8400 per MT. Maize at the NCDEX was quoting at prices Rs.8250 – 8425 per MT, while in the SPOT markets the value was ranging from Rs.9050 at Karimnagar and Rs.9530 at Davangere.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were up this week by 11% and RS.7960 per MT and also are up 19.2% against maize. The differential with maize is only 1.3%.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices went down by 1% to Rs.9300 per MT at the market yard. And are 4.5% lower than last year. Possibly this is the first time sorghum prices are lower than last year. Against maize, the prices are higher by 13.2%.

Barley prices were also down by 5.2% to level at Rs.9250 per MT and are down by 18.2% against last year.

Corn prices were again down this week to $146.68 per MT for Dec 08 and 152.98 per MT for Mar 09. The prices are lower than last week’s close by about 7.5%. This would also mean that the corn delivered to SEA markets would be close to $220 and local corn is delivered in India at some feed mills at $210 per MT (Dollar has breached the Rs.50 per dollar mark).

Corn as health food

A research conducted jointly by North American Millers’ Association (NAMA) and the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) at the Department of Food Science, Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana, U.S. has found that milled corn products are a good source of “Carotenoids”, the consumption of which is associated with decreased risk of several chronic diseases including cancer, cardiovascular disorders and age-related macular degeneration.

Carotenoids are a class of natural fat-soluble pigments found principally in plants, algae, and photosynthetic bacteria, where they play a critical role in the photosynthetic process.

In human beings, carotenoids can serve several important functions. The most widely studied and well-understood nutritional role for carotenoids is their provitamin A activity.

Carotenoids also play an important potential role in human health by acting as biological antioxidants, protecting cells and tissues from the damaging effects of free radicals and singlet oxygen.

The research found that:

1. Milled corn products are a good source of carotenoids, containing 90-350 micrograms per 100 grams food.
2. Corn carotenoids are highly bioaccessible (>50%). Bioaccessibility is a solid estimate of bioavailability, which is the amount of nutrients available to the body after digestion, researchers noted. The carotenoids can be found from corn-based foods, including corn bread, wet cooked grits and extruded products.
3. Absolute bioaccessibility is generally proportional to starting food content.
4. Relative bioaccessibility is slightly higher than other fruits and vegetables.
5. The presence of added fiber (typical negative effector) from whole grain does not appear to limit carotenoid bioaccessibility.

Researchers also noted the following opportunities milled corn products showed for food design:

a. Delivery of a biological antioxidant.
b. Easily formulated into snacks, cereals and other foodstuffs.
c. Bioaccessibility is high in model food processing systems.
Adopted from www.world-grain.com)

More DDGS from US corn ethanol industry

New reports indicate that the U.S. ethanol industry will continue its growth trajectory in 2009 as well and produce 31.3 MMT of DDGS in the marketing year 2008/09 which can be used by the animal feed industry. About 22 .8 million tons of DDGS were available for global use in 2007/2008 marketing year (Oct – Sept). In 2008, ethanol production was 35.2 billion liters of ethanol, which is likely to grow to 45 billion liters by 2009.

Almost all the South East Asian countries are importing DDGS and are using it effectively. Until now Thailand has imported 102,000 MT, thanks to a robust growth in the poultry industry by 8%. A large part of the growth in the poultry industry can be attributed to strong demand from Japan and Europe.

Other countries in the region, which are importing DDGS and are using it in poultry rations include Philippines 64,000 MT; Vietnam 80,000 MT and Indonesia 70,000 MT.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
bluecross303@gmail.com

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Commodity prices low, export of corn open

Commodity prices low, export of corn open

Corn prices this week were down by about 2% to average at Rs.8100 per MT at the market yard. This is about 3.5% lower than the MSP announced by GOI. As against last year the price was 20% higher, giving a much higher return to the farmer. In the futures market the maize was in the range Rs.8340 per MT for Feb 2009 delivery, while for near month Oct 2008, the price was Rs.9170 per MT. In Nizamabad the prices were ruling at Rs.8982, while at Karimnagar and Davangere the prices were Rs.8975 and Rs.9535 pet MT.

Pearl millet prices also went down by about 3.3% averaging at RS.7200 per MT. This is also 14.3% lower than the MSP. Against last year, though the prices were higher by 13%. Against maize the pearl millet prices were lower by 12.6%.

Sorghum prices were up by 4.4% this week to average at Rs.9370 per MT at the market yard. Against last year the prices are higher by 6.6% and also against maize the prices are higher by 13.7%.

Barley prices moved up by 2% to average Rs.9800 per MT at the market yard and against last year the prices were down by 6.2%.

Corn prices on CBOT were also down this week to $158.65, 2% lower than last week’s close of $161. On Thursday, corn was all time low at $151.40 per MT.

All eyes were on India and the export ban notification lapsed on the midnight of Oct 15,2 008 and export of corn was open from Oct 16, 2008. The question though is, will it be feasible to export from India, when the US prices are all time low and FOB US gulf would be in the range of $185-187 per MT and delivery to South East Asia can be from a low of $230 to a high of $240. Indian corn prices FOB eastern ports would be close to $205 - 208 and delivered would also be in the same range as US corn. Earlier Indian corn has been sold at a discount. Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri lanka and natural buyers for the Indian corn and will buy, it is the other countries which may not jump on the Indian market soon.

The production of maize is down to 13.04 MMT in this Khariff season against last year’s 15.15 MMT and the prices are expected to remain higher than last year. Export of a 500 TMT can not be ruled out though.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
bluecross303@gmail.com

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Coarse grain prices move up, though slightly; USDA predicts higher world and US corn production

Coarse grain prices move up, though slightly

Maize prices in the market yard averaged 1.2% higher than last week to Rs.8242 per MT. Though the prices are lower than the Minimum Support Price announced by GOI. The price was also higher than last year’s price by 21.5%. In the future markets the price ranged from Rs.8350 – 8540 per MT, which to many farmers is not a remunerative value. In the spot markets though the higher pries was quoted in Davangere (Rs.10032 per MT), while the lowest in Nizamabad (Rs.9006 per MT)

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices also moved up by 2% to Rs.7423 per MT, which is 11.6% lower then the MSP announced by GOI. The prices are 17% higher than last year and about 11% lower than maize in the market yard.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices have slid by 10.75% this week to Rs.8975 per MT at the market yard. And the prices were also 4.7% lower than last year’s prices. Against maize the prices are higher by 8.2%.

Barley prices moved up by 2.86% to Rs.9586 per MT at the market yard. The prices were down by 4.1% against last year.

Corn prices in the US tumbled again this week. Prices on CBOT closed at $ 160.70 per MT for Dec delivery, while for the march the prices tanked to $167.55 per MT. The markets closed about 10% lower than last week.

USDA predicts higher world and US corn production

USDA’s WASDE report, of Oct 10, 2008 for 2008/09 has projected a higher corn crop of 309.89 MMT in the new estimates against Sept estimates of 306.65 MMT. One of reasons attributed in a good rainfall in September in the Mideast of the country. The new estimates also project an increase in the ending stocks to 29.31 MMT against last month’s estimates of 25.86 MMT. The report also projects increase in corn use in feed to 135.89 MMT, but a decrease in food, seed residual use to 135.50 MMT , mostly owing to lower corn use for ethanol production, which is expected to be 101.6 MMT against last month’s estimate of 104.1 MMT.

As per a report published by the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, soybean production in Brazil is projected to rise to 61.3 MMT for the 2008/09 crop, up from last year’s 60.1 MMT. Area under soybean is likely to go up at the cost of corn sowing. Area under corn in Brazil is likely t0 14.4 million hectares, slightly lower than 14.7 million hectares to produce 55 – 56 MMT of corn, lower than last year’s production of 58.6 MMT. The average production from corn in Brazil is expected to be 4.06 tons/hac, almost double the Indian productivity. As per the USDA report, the ending stocks of corn in Braxil are expected to be lower at 9.24 MMT against last month’s estimate of 14.95 MMT and the total use is expected to be 40 MMT against 38 MMT.

As the input costs have soared as in other countries, farmers are making judicious use of inputs. The fact is that it is cheaper to sow soybean than corn, and a higher area does not guarantee a higher production as farmers may not apply enough fertilizers or pesticides due to higher expense.

The report also projects that the exports from Argentina will be lower by 2 MMT to 11 MMT and feed use in Argentina is also expected to increase to 5.6 MMT against 3.8 MMT projected last month.

The world’s corn production in 2008/09 is estimated to increase to 785.25 MMT and feed use increased to 492.34 MMT. The ending stocks though are expected to be 107.76 MMT, down by 2.18 MMT against last month’s estimates.

Amit Sachdev
India Represenative
US Grains Council
bluecross303@gmail.com

Saturday, October 04, 2008

Mixed reactions in commodities; Results - DDGS can be used in poultry and dairy rations

Mixed reactions in commodities

Maize prices were down by 4.3% this week to Rs.8140 per MT at the market yard. The price though is higher than last year by 17.7%. The prices are ruling at lower than the Minimum Support Prices (MSP) of Rs.8400 per MT declared by GOI for the new crop, which has started to arrive in the market in almost all the markets. In the future markets the prices were little higher than the MSP and were recorded in the range of Rs.8630 – Rs.8880 per MT for the period Oct 2008 – Jan 2009. In the SPOT markets on Karimnagar the prices were Rs.9621, Nizamabad recorded Rs.9136, while at Davangere the price was Rs.10116 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were up by 2.7% this week to Rs.7280 per MT at the market yard. The price average lower than the MSP of Rs.8400. The price were up by 5.1% this time against last year prices and were lower than maize by about 12%.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices were up by 10.6% this week to level at Rs.10057 per MT at the market yard. The prices were higher than the MSP of Rs.8400 – 8600 per MT declared by GOI. Against last year the prices were higher by 13.5% and are also higher than maize by about 19%.

Barley prices dipped by 3% this week to Rs.9320 per MT at the market yard and were lower than 13.8% against last year. Probably barley is the only crop were prices have declined over last year.
Corn prices fell by 15-17% on CBOT on Friday against last week’s close. Prices for Dec 2008/Mar 2009 delivery were recorded at $178 – 185 per MT. The prices had reached a high of $315 per MT on CBOT in June 2008.

Results - DDGS can be used in poultry and dairy rations

Trials have shown that DDGS, the by-product of the ethanol industry can be used effectively in poultry and dairy cattle feeds. Trials conducted in Egypt and Japan have shown that DDGS in poultry ration upto 10% has had no negative affect on the efficiency of production. In addition use of DDGS in dairy buffalo rations has been effective in reducing the impact of heat stress on milk production in Egypt, as per Dr.Hussain Soliman, Country Director for US Grains Council in Egypt. It is not only the production efficiency, in addition lower feed costs convinced the feed manufacturers to use the product in the feed and government of Egypt recognizing its as a valuable feed ingredient. Egypt has so far imported 46,200 MT of U.S. DDGS in 2008 and it is expected to import more as the yer comes to the close.

Last week’s the CNF prices of DDGS to destinations in South East Asia were $283 – 285 per MT. At the current prices the product can be use din poultry rations in India at 5-7%.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
bluecros303@gmail.com