Coarse grain prices stable to high
Maize prices remained stable this week at Rs.8164 per MT at the market yard. Against last year, the prices are higher by about 12.4%. The average Feb 09 value at the market yard was Rs.8209 per MT at the market yard, which is 3% higher than Jan 2009 average and 14.86% higher than Feb 08 average at the market yard. Reports indicate some exports have started again to SEA region, especially to Malaysia and Vietnam.
In the futures market on NCDEX corn prices slumped by about Rs.100 per MT, Mar 8190; Apr 8250, May 8300 and Jun 8400. In the Spot markets though the prices remained stable as last week.
The new figures for the quarterly growth in India’s GDP indicate that the agricultural growth is down to -2.2% in the quarter Oct-Dec 2008 and the economic slow down which was not affecting agriculture till now is taking its toll on the agriculture as well. The slowdown in agriculture will affect the overall GDP growth of India.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved up by 5% at the market yard to Rs.8466 per MT. The prices are higher than last year by 20.5%. Against maize, the prices are higher by 3.6%. The Feb 2009 average prices is Rs.8149 per MT, 23% higher than Feb 2008 and 3.2% higher than Jan 2009 prices.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices have also moved up by 0.4% to Rs.9990 per MT at the market yard. Prices are higher than last year by 5.8% and against maize 18.3% higher. The average Feb 2009 prices is Rs.10049 per MT, 7.6% higher than Jan 2009 average and 8.14% higher than Feb 2008 average.
Barley prices are the only one’s that have slumped and were down by 7.2% against last week to Rs.8432 per MT. Against last year prices are lower by 27.6%. Feb 2009 average was Rs.8569 about 16.9% lower than Feb 2008 levels and 3.93% lower than Jan 2009 average. In the SPOT market of Jaipur prices have slumped by almost Rs.675 per MT (7.35% drop), against last week’s prices.
The prices of corn on CBOT have somewhat remained stable as last week at $135 for Mar, to $148 for Sep. The FOB US gulf rates are indicated at $165/167 per Mt for the period Mar/Jun delivery. Freight rates have remained stable this week. With Argentina farmers ending the strikes, there could be some movement of ships from South America.
Bird flu in India - poultry demand remains strong
Fresh bird flu outbreak was reported this week in the North east of the country in bordering districts of West Bengal. India will be living with the bird flu, especially in the border areas where multi species farming is a norm. backyard poultry, swine and ducks ram freely and it will just be impossible to segregate these until some touch measures are taken at the state level and implemented. The areas are so remote that in some cases, the information about culling may not reach. Smuggling across the state/country border is rampant.
One way to deal with the situation would be to allow vaccination of stocks, specifically in borders areas, where bird flu episodes have occurred in the past and likely to occur due multi species farming.
Even though the birdflu episode has been reported, it is not affecting demand in the region and country, though exports have been badly hit. Consumers in metros and other areas are aware that the problem is localized and will not reach them.
Current placement of broilers in India is about 34 million per week and India produces about 970 million eggs per week and most of it is consumed in India. The per capita avaiablility of broiler meat is about 2 kg per person per annum, while for eggs the availability is about 45 eggs per person per annum.
Current prices of live broiler in North India are much higher (Rs.65 per kg), while in Bombay and other areas prices are close to Rs.45-48 per kg and this has not affected. Chilled chicken can be purchased in the retail market at anywhere between 130 - 150 per kg (bone in), while boneless chicken is available at Rs.200 - 240 per kg. Even with these prices which are 33% higher than last year, demand for chicken is strong.
The only way continue export trade would be to make zones, without which every time a bird flu episode is reported, exports will be hit badly. In the last one and a half year, India’s exports of shelled eggs and poultry meat have been badly hit.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com
Maize prices remained stable this week at Rs.8164 per MT at the market yard. Against last year, the prices are higher by about 12.4%. The average Feb 09 value at the market yard was Rs.8209 per MT at the market yard, which is 3% higher than Jan 2009 average and 14.86% higher than Feb 08 average at the market yard. Reports indicate some exports have started again to SEA region, especially to Malaysia and Vietnam.
In the futures market on NCDEX corn prices slumped by about Rs.100 per MT, Mar 8190; Apr 8250, May 8300 and Jun 8400. In the Spot markets though the prices remained stable as last week.
The new figures for the quarterly growth in India’s GDP indicate that the agricultural growth is down to -2.2% in the quarter Oct-Dec 2008 and the economic slow down which was not affecting agriculture till now is taking its toll on the agriculture as well. The slowdown in agriculture will affect the overall GDP growth of India.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved up by 5% at the market yard to Rs.8466 per MT. The prices are higher than last year by 20.5%. Against maize, the prices are higher by 3.6%. The Feb 2009 average prices is Rs.8149 per MT, 23% higher than Feb 2008 and 3.2% higher than Jan 2009 prices.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices have also moved up by 0.4% to Rs.9990 per MT at the market yard. Prices are higher than last year by 5.8% and against maize 18.3% higher. The average Feb 2009 prices is Rs.10049 per MT, 7.6% higher than Jan 2009 average and 8.14% higher than Feb 2008 average.
Barley prices are the only one’s that have slumped and were down by 7.2% against last week to Rs.8432 per MT. Against last year prices are lower by 27.6%. Feb 2009 average was Rs.8569 about 16.9% lower than Feb 2008 levels and 3.93% lower than Jan 2009 average. In the SPOT market of Jaipur prices have slumped by almost Rs.675 per MT (7.35% drop), against last week’s prices.
The prices of corn on CBOT have somewhat remained stable as last week at $135 for Mar, to $148 for Sep. The FOB US gulf rates are indicated at $165/167 per Mt for the period Mar/Jun delivery. Freight rates have remained stable this week. With Argentina farmers ending the strikes, there could be some movement of ships from South America.
Bird flu in India - poultry demand remains strong
Fresh bird flu outbreak was reported this week in the North east of the country in bordering districts of West Bengal. India will be living with the bird flu, especially in the border areas where multi species farming is a norm. backyard poultry, swine and ducks ram freely and it will just be impossible to segregate these until some touch measures are taken at the state level and implemented. The areas are so remote that in some cases, the information about culling may not reach. Smuggling across the state/country border is rampant.
One way to deal with the situation would be to allow vaccination of stocks, specifically in borders areas, where bird flu episodes have occurred in the past and likely to occur due multi species farming.
Even though the birdflu episode has been reported, it is not affecting demand in the region and country, though exports have been badly hit. Consumers in metros and other areas are aware that the problem is localized and will not reach them.
Current placement of broilers in India is about 34 million per week and India produces about 970 million eggs per week and most of it is consumed in India. The per capita avaiablility of broiler meat is about 2 kg per person per annum, while for eggs the availability is about 45 eggs per person per annum.
Current prices of live broiler in North India are much higher (Rs.65 per kg), while in Bombay and other areas prices are close to Rs.45-48 per kg and this has not affected. Chilled chicken can be purchased in the retail market at anywhere between 130 - 150 per kg (bone in), while boneless chicken is available at Rs.200 - 240 per kg. Even with these prices which are 33% higher than last year, demand for chicken is strong.
The only way continue export trade would be to make zones, without which every time a bird flu episode is reported, exports will be hit badly. In the last one and a half year, India’s exports of shelled eggs and poultry meat have been badly hit.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com
