Coarse grain prices, moving with the tide
Maize prices moved up slightly this week as the demand for export grew. Average price at the market yard moved up by 1.6% to Rs.8300 per MT. The prices are higher than 9% against last year.
The final estimates for 2007/08 maize production are out and the production is estimated at 18.96 MMT against the earlier estimate of 19.31 MMT. While Kharif production is pegged at 15.11 MMT, Rabi is pegged at 3.85 MMT. The second estimates for 2008/09 crop estimate the production to be 17.04 MMT. Khraif production is estimated at 13.40 MMT against a target of 15.50 MMT and rabi is projected at 3.64 MMT, against a target of 4 MMT.
In the future markets the prices for Mar – Jun moved up by 1-2% per MT, Mar Rs.8280; Apr Rs.8335; May Rs.8420; Jun Rs.8560 per MT. On the Spot market though, the prices slumped by 0.5 – 1%. Nizamabad Rs.8111; Karimnagar Rs.8005; Davangere Rs.7734 per Mt. The prices are much lower than the Minimum Support Price (MSP) set by the government and reports are that atleast 0.5 MMT of corn has been purchased by the state agencies in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka at the MSP, which will be sold later.
Prices as per the market are projected to go down in the near future due to lower demand and rabi crop coming into the market. But that may not be for a long period, as the lower prices will spur purchase and exports may continue. Based on dollar values, Indian corn is again the cheapest corn available, if that would spur exports over a medium term, prices may also stay stable.
Pearl Millet (Bajra), prices are similar to last week’s average (Rs.8460 – 8500 per MT). Prices are about 18% higher than last year and against maize, the prices are higher by 2%. Production for Pearl Millet in 2007/08 is estimated at 9.97 MMT. In 2008/09 the production is projected at 8.85 MMT against a target of 10 MMT.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices slumped by 2% to average at Rs.9780 per MT, The prices are higher than last year by 9.1% and against maize by 15.2%. Sorghum production in 2007/08 is estimated 7.93 MMT. In 2008/09 the production is estimated at 7.24 MMT against a target of 8.0 MMT. Khariff production is estimated at 3.06 MMT, while Rabi is projected to be 4.18 MMT.
Barley prices moved up by about 3.2% against last week to average Rs.8700 per MT at the market yard. The prices are lower than last year’s by 18.2%. Barley production in 2007/08 is estimated at 1.20 MMT. In 2008/09 the production is projected to be 1.45 MMT against a target of 1.50 MMT.
Barley prices on NCDEX were reported lower than last week, by 6.68% for April delivery, while in the Spot market at Jaipur, the prices were higher by 3.5% to Rs.8800 per MT.
US Commodity Market
The prices of Corn on CBOT moved up slightly from 0.6 - $1.0 per MT for Mar – September deliveries. Pricing were Mar $138.81; May $142.27; July $146.05; Sept $149.28 per MT. FOB values for corn (US Gulf) were $162 – 163 per MT for Mar to June delivery. Reports are, imported corn, specially US is priced at about $210/212 per MT.
Sorghum values on FOB basis (US Gulf) are still about $10 cheaper than corn at $152/154 per MT, which would lead to increased sales and usage on sorghum in some traditional corn markets and it would compete with corn from other sources.
Feed wheat is still the cheapest grain available on the market and is trading in SEA and is a competitive product. Swine farmers in some areas may shift to feed wheat, but poultry, especially broiler integrators are likely to stay with corn as it is the only source of energy.
DDGS prices are currently at $212/215 per MT delivered to Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam. Over the next couple of weeks the prices may go up, only because of the slow availability on containers in USA, a sure sign that US is receiving less stocks/goods from other parts of the world, specially SEA region, which was the major exporter of products, including auto parts, textiles, foods, handicrafts, furniture etc to USA.
The latest trial using DDGS in Chile, it has been proved again that DDGS in dairy feeds not only reduced the cost of of feeding but also increased compoents in milk (protein) and production of milk in summer as well as winter, giving higher margins to the dairy farmers.
Maize prices moved up slightly this week as the demand for export grew. Average price at the market yard moved up by 1.6% to Rs.8300 per MT. The prices are higher than 9% against last year.
The final estimates for 2007/08 maize production are out and the production is estimated at 18.96 MMT against the earlier estimate of 19.31 MMT. While Kharif production is pegged at 15.11 MMT, Rabi is pegged at 3.85 MMT. The second estimates for 2008/09 crop estimate the production to be 17.04 MMT. Khraif production is estimated at 13.40 MMT against a target of 15.50 MMT and rabi is projected at 3.64 MMT, against a target of 4 MMT.
In the future markets the prices for Mar – Jun moved up by 1-2% per MT, Mar Rs.8280; Apr Rs.8335; May Rs.8420; Jun Rs.8560 per MT. On the Spot market though, the prices slumped by 0.5 – 1%. Nizamabad Rs.8111; Karimnagar Rs.8005; Davangere Rs.7734 per Mt. The prices are much lower than the Minimum Support Price (MSP) set by the government and reports are that atleast 0.5 MMT of corn has been purchased by the state agencies in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka at the MSP, which will be sold later.
Prices as per the market are projected to go down in the near future due to lower demand and rabi crop coming into the market. But that may not be for a long period, as the lower prices will spur purchase and exports may continue. Based on dollar values, Indian corn is again the cheapest corn available, if that would spur exports over a medium term, prices may also stay stable.
Pearl Millet (Bajra), prices are similar to last week’s average (Rs.8460 – 8500 per MT). Prices are about 18% higher than last year and against maize, the prices are higher by 2%. Production for Pearl Millet in 2007/08 is estimated at 9.97 MMT. In 2008/09 the production is projected at 8.85 MMT against a target of 10 MMT.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices slumped by 2% to average at Rs.9780 per MT, The prices are higher than last year by 9.1% and against maize by 15.2%. Sorghum production in 2007/08 is estimated 7.93 MMT. In 2008/09 the production is estimated at 7.24 MMT against a target of 8.0 MMT. Khariff production is estimated at 3.06 MMT, while Rabi is projected to be 4.18 MMT.
Barley prices moved up by about 3.2% against last week to average Rs.8700 per MT at the market yard. The prices are lower than last year’s by 18.2%. Barley production in 2007/08 is estimated at 1.20 MMT. In 2008/09 the production is projected to be 1.45 MMT against a target of 1.50 MMT.
Barley prices on NCDEX were reported lower than last week, by 6.68% for April delivery, while in the Spot market at Jaipur, the prices were higher by 3.5% to Rs.8800 per MT.
US Commodity Market
The prices of Corn on CBOT moved up slightly from 0.6 - $1.0 per MT for Mar – September deliveries. Pricing were Mar $138.81; May $142.27; July $146.05; Sept $149.28 per MT. FOB values for corn (US Gulf) were $162 – 163 per MT for Mar to June delivery. Reports are, imported corn, specially US is priced at about $210/212 per MT.
Sorghum values on FOB basis (US Gulf) are still about $10 cheaper than corn at $152/154 per MT, which would lead to increased sales and usage on sorghum in some traditional corn markets and it would compete with corn from other sources.
Feed wheat is still the cheapest grain available on the market and is trading in SEA and is a competitive product. Swine farmers in some areas may shift to feed wheat, but poultry, especially broiler integrators are likely to stay with corn as it is the only source of energy.
DDGS prices are currently at $212/215 per MT delivered to Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam. Over the next couple of weeks the prices may go up, only because of the slow availability on containers in USA, a sure sign that US is receiving less stocks/goods from other parts of the world, specially SEA region, which was the major exporter of products, including auto parts, textiles, foods, handicrafts, furniture etc to USA.
The latest trial using DDGS in Chile, it has been proved again that DDGS in dairy feeds not only reduced the cost of of feeding but also increased compoents in milk (protein) and production of milk in summer as well as winter, giving higher margins to the dairy farmers.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com
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