Mixed bag for coarse grain prices
Maize prices moved up by 1.2% this week to Rs.8300 per MT range. Prices are still higher than last year by 14.8%. Prices in Karnataka, one of the main production areas was possibly the lowest and commodity was trading below the Minimum Support price by about 9%. Repots are exports are on and the price parity remains. As the markets in SEA region rebound and some activity is seen, the demand of grain will increase slowly and gradually. Current delivery values are at $190 – 192 per MT to SEA region.
On the NCDEX though, the prices for near months were little lower than last week to Rs.8340 for Apr; Rs.8690 for May; Rs.8895 for Jun, losing 0.3-0.04% over last week. July prices were however up by 1% to Rs.9000 per MT. In the SPOT market, prices in Nizamabad showed an increase by 1.1% to Rs.8172 per MT, Davangere an uptrend of 3.2% to Rs.8158 per MT, while prices in Karimnagar were down by 1% to 7846 per MT.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved up by 1.1% to Rs.8850 per MT at the market yard. Prices are higher than last year by 21.1%. Against maize, the prices are higher by 6.2%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices slumped by 7.8% at the market yard to Rs.9400 per MT range. Against last year, prices are lower by 7.3% and higher than maize by 11.2%.
Barley prices slumped this week on increased arrivals in market yards in North India (Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh) by about 6.2% to Rs.7900 per MT. Prices are about 22.5% lower than last year prices.
On the NCDEX though the prices increased this week by 8 -10% for Apr – August deliveries, Apr Rs.9578, up 8%; May Rs.9752, up by 9%; July Rs.10050, up 10%. In the Spot market in Jaipur, prices were up by 8.1% to Rs.9070 per MT.
Corn in CBOT was down by 3.2 – 3.5%, May $153.61; July $157.31, Sept $161.17, Dec 165.97 per MT. FOB US Gulf was $174 – 179 per MT, Sorghum price, FOB US Gulf was $171-172 per MT. Freight rates US Gulf – Japan are close to $39 per MT, while PNW – Japan are $18 per MT. Brazil – China freight is at $35 per MT.
DDGS prices to SEA region were close to $220 per MT, FOB, US gulf rates are $169-171 per MT.
Corn plating has also started in US and reports indicate that about 20% area has been planted, though a little lower than the five year average of 23%.
USDA report on supply and demand
Corn
USDA in its latest report released April 09. 2009 raised US domestic feed usage for corn to 135.89 MMT, and lowered the food, seed and industrial usage to 126.74 MMT. The ending stocks in USA have been estimated at 43.18 MMT for the year 2008/09.
World corn production for 2008/09 has been estimated at 786.4 MMT, down from last year’s 790.91 MMT. Global ending stocks have been estimated at 143.3 MMT, which is 14 MMT above a year ago. In 2008/09, US produced 307.4 MMT, which is 39% of the world’s corn and the production was lower than last year’s 331.18 MMT. India’s production in 2008/09 is estimated at 17.04 MMT, about 2% of the world’s production.
Corn summary for Marketing Year 08/09
1. World corn production fell 1% to 786.4 MMT. The US corn is down 8% to 307.4 MMT.
2. World corn supplies increased by 1% to 916 MMT, while US supplies are 5% lower at 348.6 MMT.
3. World corn trade is projected to decrease 23% to 76.1 MMT, due to increased availability of feed wheat and lower feeding rates. US corn exports are expected to decrease 28% to 44 MMT.
4. World corn consumption is steady at 772.7 MMT. US usage is also expected to stay about the same at 262.6 MMT.
5. World corn carryover stocks are estimated to increase 10% to 143.3 MMT, while US stocks are expected to increase by 4% to 43 MMT.
Barley
1. World barley production is up 15% to 153.8 MMT. US production increased 13% to 5.2 MMT.
2. World barley supplies are 12% higher at 174 MMT, and US supplies are 10% higher at 6.7 MMT.
3. World barley trade is expected to fall by 1% to 18.4 MMT. US exports are projected to fall by 62% to .35 MMT, due to greater competition from Australia, Canada and the Black Sea region.
4. World barley consumption is projected to increase 7% to 143.9 MMT, and US usage is expected to increase 16% to 5.1 MMT.
5. World barley carryover stocks are estimated to jump 49% to 30 MMT, while US carryout is projected to increase by 30% to 1.9 MMT.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
Email: usgcindia@gmail.com
Maize prices moved up by 1.2% this week to Rs.8300 per MT range. Prices are still higher than last year by 14.8%. Prices in Karnataka, one of the main production areas was possibly the lowest and commodity was trading below the Minimum Support price by about 9%. Repots are exports are on and the price parity remains. As the markets in SEA region rebound and some activity is seen, the demand of grain will increase slowly and gradually. Current delivery values are at $190 – 192 per MT to SEA region.
On the NCDEX though, the prices for near months were little lower than last week to Rs.8340 for Apr; Rs.8690 for May; Rs.8895 for Jun, losing 0.3-0.04% over last week. July prices were however up by 1% to Rs.9000 per MT. In the SPOT market, prices in Nizamabad showed an increase by 1.1% to Rs.8172 per MT, Davangere an uptrend of 3.2% to Rs.8158 per MT, while prices in Karimnagar were down by 1% to 7846 per MT.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved up by 1.1% to Rs.8850 per MT at the market yard. Prices are higher than last year by 21.1%. Against maize, the prices are higher by 6.2%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices slumped by 7.8% at the market yard to Rs.9400 per MT range. Against last year, prices are lower by 7.3% and higher than maize by 11.2%.
Barley prices slumped this week on increased arrivals in market yards in North India (Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh) by about 6.2% to Rs.7900 per MT. Prices are about 22.5% lower than last year prices.
On the NCDEX though the prices increased this week by 8 -10% for Apr – August deliveries, Apr Rs.9578, up 8%; May Rs.9752, up by 9%; July Rs.10050, up 10%. In the Spot market in Jaipur, prices were up by 8.1% to Rs.9070 per MT.
Corn in CBOT was down by 3.2 – 3.5%, May $153.61; July $157.31, Sept $161.17, Dec 165.97 per MT. FOB US Gulf was $174 – 179 per MT, Sorghum price, FOB US Gulf was $171-172 per MT. Freight rates US Gulf – Japan are close to $39 per MT, while PNW – Japan are $18 per MT. Brazil – China freight is at $35 per MT.
DDGS prices to SEA region were close to $220 per MT, FOB, US gulf rates are $169-171 per MT.
Corn plating has also started in US and reports indicate that about 20% area has been planted, though a little lower than the five year average of 23%.
USDA report on supply and demand
Corn
USDA in its latest report released April 09. 2009 raised US domestic feed usage for corn to 135.89 MMT, and lowered the food, seed and industrial usage to 126.74 MMT. The ending stocks in USA have been estimated at 43.18 MMT for the year 2008/09.
World corn production for 2008/09 has been estimated at 786.4 MMT, down from last year’s 790.91 MMT. Global ending stocks have been estimated at 143.3 MMT, which is 14 MMT above a year ago. In 2008/09, US produced 307.4 MMT, which is 39% of the world’s corn and the production was lower than last year’s 331.18 MMT. India’s production in 2008/09 is estimated at 17.04 MMT, about 2% of the world’s production.
Corn summary for Marketing Year 08/09
1. World corn production fell 1% to 786.4 MMT. The US corn is down 8% to 307.4 MMT.
2. World corn supplies increased by 1% to 916 MMT, while US supplies are 5% lower at 348.6 MMT.
3. World corn trade is projected to decrease 23% to 76.1 MMT, due to increased availability of feed wheat and lower feeding rates. US corn exports are expected to decrease 28% to 44 MMT.
4. World corn consumption is steady at 772.7 MMT. US usage is also expected to stay about the same at 262.6 MMT.
5. World corn carryover stocks are estimated to increase 10% to 143.3 MMT, while US stocks are expected to increase by 4% to 43 MMT.
Barley
1. World barley production is up 15% to 153.8 MMT. US production increased 13% to 5.2 MMT.
2. World barley supplies are 12% higher at 174 MMT, and US supplies are 10% higher at 6.7 MMT.
3. World barley trade is expected to fall by 1% to 18.4 MMT. US exports are projected to fall by 62% to .35 MMT, due to greater competition from Australia, Canada and the Black Sea region.
4. World barley consumption is projected to increase 7% to 143.9 MMT, and US usage is expected to increase 16% to 5.1 MMT.
5. World barley carryover stocks are estimated to jump 49% to 30 MMT, while US carryout is projected to increase by 30% to 1.9 MMT.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
Email: usgcindia@gmail.com
1 comment:
Yesterday FCI Tender closed at Rs.8000 PMT ex warehouse at various locations in Karnataka.Main buyer Suguna and Godrej
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