Saturday, May 09, 2009

Coarse grain prices strengthen in India

Coarse grain prices strengthen in India

Maize prices moved up slightly to Rs.8250 per MT on an average. While prices in Karnataka, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu remained close to Rs.7700 per MT at the market yard, (much below the Minimum Support Levels), prices in other markets were close to Rs.8200 per MT. The prices were about 10% higher than last year.

On the futures market, corn has remained stable this week, except fot July, where prices moved up by 3%to reach Rs.9340 per MT. In the Spot market as well prices have remained stable.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved by slightly to Rs.8860 per MT at the market yard. Prices were higher than last year by 13% and higher than maize by 7%. FCI, Haryana has released about 11,000 MT of pearl millet in the open market at Rs.8120 per MT. The total stock of Pearl Millet at the FCI godowns is about 310,000 MT at various locations and it will find way into poultry/cattle feed if the prices are right.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices have moved by by 14%, a sudden jump to Rs.11,409 per MT. While sorghum for food is the highest priced commodity and is being sold in some areas at over 20,000 MT. The prices are higher than last year by 10.8% and against maize the prices are higher by 27.7%.

Barley prices moved up by about 12% to Rs.9000 per Mt range, but are lower than last year by 12.7%. In the futures market, barley prices have remained stable, while in the SPOT market in Jaipur, prices moved up by 0.5% t0 Rs.9035 per MT.

In the US the prices have been moving up steadily this week due to planting concerns. As per reports available 33% of corn plating has been completed, better than last years 24% during the same time, but is lower than the five year (2004/2008) average of 50%. Sorghum planting is at about 30%, against last year’s 31% and five years average 30%. Barley planting is also lagging behind at 22%, against last year’s 50% and five year’s average 54%.

Corn prices have strengthened due to the planting concerns, good domestic and export demand. Report indicate that Argentina may not be in the market for long and that Brazil also has a 2 MMT lower corn crop. May corn futures on CBOT was up 1.92% at $162.98 per MT, while July and Sept corn was up by 1.79% and 1.65% against last week, closing at $165.73 and $169.04 per MT. FOB values for Gulf are up to $185/189 per Mt for May-Aug while FOB PNW is up to 201/206 per MT for the same period. Sorghum on the other hand is trading at a discount and FOB Gulf price was indicated at $178/180 per MT.

DDGS prices in the US have also firmed due to increased overseas demand and high prices of SBM. Prices to SEA region were $223/234 for June/July delivery, while the FOB Gulf Vessel delivery was indicated at $179 per MT. With Indian SBM prices touching all time high, poultry and dairy feed manufacturers have started looking to source other protein meals, which is likely t o increase the demand and the prices over a long run as per the trade information available. Demand for Corn Gluten Meal is good indicator.

DDGS probably would find a market in other locations as well and would be a cheaper Protein source than SBM (on prorata), with energy from fat thrown in as an extra. The details of DDGS in the form of a handbook can be downloaded from the U S Grains Council website, using the link given below.

USGC DDGS Handbook: http://www.grains.org/ddgs-user-handbook

Another source of information on DDGS that can be utilized by users is the book from Iowa State University. The same can be downloaded using the link below.

DDGS Book from Iowa State University: http://www.matric.iastate.edu/DGbook/

Freight rates have also strengthened and if that is the indication for the revival of the economy is anybody’s guess. US Gulf-Japan was up to +43 per MT, while PNW-Japan benchmark was higher at +23 per MT. Brazil/Argentina to China was also higher at $39/40 per MT. Sources indicate increased iron ore business in China, which would be the factor, but there are more vessels that the demand and freight rates may not reach the high as yet.

Amit Sachdev
India representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

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