Commodity prices move up, no respite
Maize prices have moved up in the market yard by 1.5% to Rs.8500 range. Prices are higher than last year by 10.7%. Delay in monsoon in the coastal areas, news about farmers shifting to other crops has increased the market values.
Export continues slowly, with prices at port (east) touching $215 (taking into consideration all costs and 5% subsidy). Delivery to SEA markets is close to $245 -250 per MT. Domestic end users are facing trouble in finding good quality stocks in some areas.
Food Corporation of India, Bangalore has put out another tender for sale of 0.373 MMT of maize from its godowns in Karnataka. The last date is Jun 22, 2009. With the two tenders combined, approximately 0.7 MMT of corn would be in the market by July/August 2009.
On the futures market (NCDEX), maize prices moved higher fro, 0.7 – 2.3%. Jun corn was higher by 0.67% at Rs.9010, while July corn was up to Rs.9360 per MT, adding 1.19% August corn added 2.32% to close at Rs.9480, while Sept corn close at Rs.9600 per MT, adding 2.89%. Prices in the SPOT market also gained 1-3%. Nizamabad was up 1.4% to Rs.8420 per MT, while Karimnagar added 3.12% to close at Rs.8517 per MT. Davangere closed at Rs.8232 per MT, up 0.83%.
Pearl Millet prices are stable at Rs.8700 range and are higher than last year by 18.6%. Against maize prices are higher by just 2%.
Sorghum prices have also moved up by 1.5% to Rs.10152 per MT, but are 1.5% lower than last year. Against maize, prices are higher by 16%.
Barley prices are down by 7.8% to Rs.7950 per MT and against last year prices are down by almost 41%.
In the futures market as well, barley prices were lower than last week by 0.2 – 1.3% and within the range of Rs.9400 for July and 9840 for Oct delivery. Prices in Jaipur spot market were Rs.8764 per Mt, down 0.93% from last week.
On CBOT the corn closed higher than last week for July, Sept and Dec deliveries, gaining 1.8%. Prices were $174.79, $178.72 and $184 for corresponding month’s delivery. FOB gulf corn was indicated at $194/198 per MT, while FOB PNW was indicated at $210/213 per MT. Sorghum prices (FOB US Gulf) were indicated at $188/194 per MT, higher than last week, but lower than corn.
Corn crop progress is good and as per USDA report almost 93% was planted, as against 94% last year. About 73% of crop has also emerged, against 71% last year. Sorghum plating is about 57%, better than last year’s 53%, but almost similar to 5 year average 58%. Barley planting is at 87%, lagging behind against last year’s planting of 99% at this time. About 60% of barley is reported to be emerged as per USDA report, against 89% emerged last year at this time.
Some independent studies/reports put US corn crop at 287 MMT against 307 MMT estimated by USDA. The June report is eagerly awaited, which will probably clear some air of the production estimates. The lower production estimates are only due to late sowing of corn in three states namely Illinois, Indiana and Iowa. Average productivity is estimated at 3.77 tons/acre in the report against 3.94 tons/acre by USDA in May 2009 report.
Maize prices have moved up in the market yard by 1.5% to Rs.8500 range. Prices are higher than last year by 10.7%. Delay in monsoon in the coastal areas, news about farmers shifting to other crops has increased the market values.
Export continues slowly, with prices at port (east) touching $215 (taking into consideration all costs and 5% subsidy). Delivery to SEA markets is close to $245 -250 per MT. Domestic end users are facing trouble in finding good quality stocks in some areas.
Food Corporation of India, Bangalore has put out another tender for sale of 0.373 MMT of maize from its godowns in Karnataka. The last date is Jun 22, 2009. With the two tenders combined, approximately 0.7 MMT of corn would be in the market by July/August 2009.
On the futures market (NCDEX), maize prices moved higher fro, 0.7 – 2.3%. Jun corn was higher by 0.67% at Rs.9010, while July corn was up to Rs.9360 per MT, adding 1.19% August corn added 2.32% to close at Rs.9480, while Sept corn close at Rs.9600 per MT, adding 2.89%. Prices in the SPOT market also gained 1-3%. Nizamabad was up 1.4% to Rs.8420 per MT, while Karimnagar added 3.12% to close at Rs.8517 per MT. Davangere closed at Rs.8232 per MT, up 0.83%.
Pearl Millet prices are stable at Rs.8700 range and are higher than last year by 18.6%. Against maize prices are higher by just 2%.
Sorghum prices have also moved up by 1.5% to Rs.10152 per MT, but are 1.5% lower than last year. Against maize, prices are higher by 16%.
Barley prices are down by 7.8% to Rs.7950 per MT and against last year prices are down by almost 41%.
In the futures market as well, barley prices were lower than last week by 0.2 – 1.3% and within the range of Rs.9400 for July and 9840 for Oct delivery. Prices in Jaipur spot market were Rs.8764 per Mt, down 0.93% from last week.
On CBOT the corn closed higher than last week for July, Sept and Dec deliveries, gaining 1.8%. Prices were $174.79, $178.72 and $184 for corresponding month’s delivery. FOB gulf corn was indicated at $194/198 per MT, while FOB PNW was indicated at $210/213 per MT. Sorghum prices (FOB US Gulf) were indicated at $188/194 per MT, higher than last week, but lower than corn.
Corn crop progress is good and as per USDA report almost 93% was planted, as against 94% last year. About 73% of crop has also emerged, against 71% last year. Sorghum plating is about 57%, better than last year’s 53%, but almost similar to 5 year average 58%. Barley planting is at 87%, lagging behind against last year’s planting of 99% at this time. About 60% of barley is reported to be emerged as per USDA report, against 89% emerged last year at this time.
Some independent studies/reports put US corn crop at 287 MMT against 307 MMT estimated by USDA. The June report is eagerly awaited, which will probably clear some air of the production estimates. The lower production estimates are only due to late sowing of corn in three states namely Illinois, Indiana and Iowa. Average productivity is estimated at 3.77 tons/acre in the report against 3.94 tons/acre by USDA in May 2009 report.
As crude moves up, Dry Baltic Index (DBI) also moved up this week, indicating that the freight costs are going to move up. This is also an indication that the global recovery has started. Freight rates from US have been going up for couple of weeks now, US Gulf-Japan was indicated at $56.5, up from last week’s $54 per MT. Also PNW-Japan freight rate was indicated up $3 per MT to $34 per MT. Freight rates from Brazil/Argentina to China were stable at $48/49 per MT.
DDGS prices have moved up in the US and export markets due to increased demand and Soybean meal prices moving up. Farmers in SEA/Middle East/Far East/Oceania are finding it easy to use DDGS in rations and reduce cost of production of meat, milk and eggs and make products affordable. The increased availability of protein and use of diverse protein meals makes it easy to select. CNF prices for SEA region were indicated at $260, while FOB values were close to $210 per MT.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com
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