Commodity prices move up, drought spreads
Maize prices in India were down 2% on an average at the market yards (Pan India basis) to Rs.9300 per MT range. Prices are higher than last year by 6.2%. Average prices for Aug 2009 were Rs.9247 per MT, 3.7% higher than last year (Aug 2008) and 4.5% higher than last month (July 2009). Prices in Andhra at the market yard wee down slightly, but delivery prices are much higher. Prices in Rajasthan were also down by 0.6% to Rs.10300 per MT at the market yard. Prices in Gujarat, Tamil nadu and Uttar Pradesh moved up by 5.6%, 2.5% and 2.9% to Rs.10600 (range 9500-11700), Rs.9100 and Rs.9450 per MT at the market yard. Reports indicate that some corn was purchased in Gujarat at Rs.10300 per MT delivered at a feed mill, which is a fair value.
On the futures market the prices moved lower by 2-4% for the two contracts that are currently available, Sept delivery Rs.9750 per MT, down 2%, Oct delivery Rs.9280 per MT, down 4.17%. In the spot market though the prices have moved up by about 1%. Nizamabad RS.9450 range, up 0.5%, Karimnagar Rs.9269, up 1% and Davangere, Rs.8561, up 0.75%.
Pearl Millet prices moved up by about 1% toRs.9050 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 16.2%. The average August 2009 prices is Rs.9036, 18% higher than last year (Aug 2008) and 1.9% higher than last month (July 2009). Against maize, the prices are lower by 3%.
Sorghum prices moved up by 3.5% to Rs.13584 per MT at the market yard. Prices are 14.2% higher than last year. Average Aug 2009 prices was 13,3003 per MT, 21.8% higher than last year (Aug 2008) and 11% higher than last month (Jul 2009). Against maize, the prices are higher by 31.4%.
Barley prices moved lower by 2.7% to Rs.8250 per MT. Prices were lower than last year by 20.7%. The average prices of barley for Aug 2009 is Rs.8259, 19.47% lower than last year (Aug 2008) and 4.5% higher than last month (Jul 2009).
In the futures as well as the spot markets, the prices moved lower. Sept delivery, down by 4.36% to Rs.9000 range, while Oct delivery down by 4.77% to Rs.9170 per MT. Dec delivery was down by 6.5% to Rs.9270 per MT. The spot market (Jaipur), prices were down by 0.3% to Rs.8606 per MT.
As on Aug 27, 2009, GOI has declared 278 districts as drought affected. Only 3% of the area as per IMD has received excess rainfall, while 25% has received normal rainfall. About 70% of the area has received deficient rainfall, and 2% has received scant rainfall. For the period Jun 1 – Aug 26, 2009, the rainfall deficiency is still 25%, Norwest India -25%, Central India – 20%, South Penninsula -14% and North East -25%.
Food grain production as per the figures available from GOI will be lower by 15-20%, GOI has also removed the 5% export incentive on corn exports under Vishesh Krishi Upaj and Gram Udyog Yojana (VKUGUY), which would possibly assist is stabilizing the prices in India and increase availability locally.
On CBOT, corn prices were down marginally. Sept $125.97 per MT, down 0.35% against last week, Dec down 1.21% to $128 per MT. Mar 2010 corn was up 0.88% to $134.63 per MT. FOB gulf value was similar to last week at $160/163 per MT for Sept – Nov delivery. Sorghum price at the same point were close to corn at $159/160 per MT.
DDGS prices on FOB basis (gulf) have risen sharply to $131 Sept to $144 for Nov delivery. CNF prices (SEA region) were close to $185-190 per MT. There is a huge supply of DDGS from US, approximately 30 MMT and the local demand as well as foreign demand is also up as the product currently is selling cheaper than corn in most markets. With 26-27% protein it is possibly a cheapest source of protein available and added on that is the 9-10% oil as an energy source makes it a good buy for use as feed ingredient.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
US Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com
Maize prices in India were down 2% on an average at the market yards (Pan India basis) to Rs.9300 per MT range. Prices are higher than last year by 6.2%. Average prices for Aug 2009 were Rs.9247 per MT, 3.7% higher than last year (Aug 2008) and 4.5% higher than last month (July 2009). Prices in Andhra at the market yard wee down slightly, but delivery prices are much higher. Prices in Rajasthan were also down by 0.6% to Rs.10300 per MT at the market yard. Prices in Gujarat, Tamil nadu and Uttar Pradesh moved up by 5.6%, 2.5% and 2.9% to Rs.10600 (range 9500-11700), Rs.9100 and Rs.9450 per MT at the market yard. Reports indicate that some corn was purchased in Gujarat at Rs.10300 per MT delivered at a feed mill, which is a fair value.
On the futures market the prices moved lower by 2-4% for the two contracts that are currently available, Sept delivery Rs.9750 per MT, down 2%, Oct delivery Rs.9280 per MT, down 4.17%. In the spot market though the prices have moved up by about 1%. Nizamabad RS.9450 range, up 0.5%, Karimnagar Rs.9269, up 1% and Davangere, Rs.8561, up 0.75%.
Pearl Millet prices moved up by about 1% toRs.9050 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 16.2%. The average August 2009 prices is Rs.9036, 18% higher than last year (Aug 2008) and 1.9% higher than last month (July 2009). Against maize, the prices are lower by 3%.
Sorghum prices moved up by 3.5% to Rs.13584 per MT at the market yard. Prices are 14.2% higher than last year. Average Aug 2009 prices was 13,3003 per MT, 21.8% higher than last year (Aug 2008) and 11% higher than last month (Jul 2009). Against maize, the prices are higher by 31.4%.
Barley prices moved lower by 2.7% to Rs.8250 per MT. Prices were lower than last year by 20.7%. The average prices of barley for Aug 2009 is Rs.8259, 19.47% lower than last year (Aug 2008) and 4.5% higher than last month (Jul 2009).
In the futures as well as the spot markets, the prices moved lower. Sept delivery, down by 4.36% to Rs.9000 range, while Oct delivery down by 4.77% to Rs.9170 per MT. Dec delivery was down by 6.5% to Rs.9270 per MT. The spot market (Jaipur), prices were down by 0.3% to Rs.8606 per MT.
As on Aug 27, 2009, GOI has declared 278 districts as drought affected. Only 3% of the area as per IMD has received excess rainfall, while 25% has received normal rainfall. About 70% of the area has received deficient rainfall, and 2% has received scant rainfall. For the period Jun 1 – Aug 26, 2009, the rainfall deficiency is still 25%, Norwest India -25%, Central India – 20%, South Penninsula -14% and North East -25%.
Food grain production as per the figures available from GOI will be lower by 15-20%, GOI has also removed the 5% export incentive on corn exports under Vishesh Krishi Upaj and Gram Udyog Yojana (VKUGUY), which would possibly assist is stabilizing the prices in India and increase availability locally.
On CBOT, corn prices were down marginally. Sept $125.97 per MT, down 0.35% against last week, Dec down 1.21% to $128 per MT. Mar 2010 corn was up 0.88% to $134.63 per MT. FOB gulf value was similar to last week at $160/163 per MT for Sept – Nov delivery. Sorghum price at the same point were close to corn at $159/160 per MT.
DDGS prices on FOB basis (gulf) have risen sharply to $131 Sept to $144 for Nov delivery. CNF prices (SEA region) were close to $185-190 per MT. There is a huge supply of DDGS from US, approximately 30 MMT and the local demand as well as foreign demand is also up as the product currently is selling cheaper than corn in most markets. With 26-27% protein it is possibly a cheapest source of protein available and added on that is the 9-10% oil as an energy source makes it a good buy for use as feed ingredient.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
US Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com
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