Stable prices and improvement in Monsoon
Maize prices have moved up by 2.5% over last week to touch Rs.9000 per MT on the pan India average. The prices are similar to last year levels. Data shows, prices have moved up ins tates of Andhra Pradesh, 0.21% to Rs.8325 per MT; Karnataka +2.82% to Rs.8630 per MT and in Uttar Pradesh +4.36% to Rs.9040 per MT. In some states prices have moved lower, Gujarat 2.6% to Rs.9500 per MT; Maharashtra 3.6% to Rs.8900 per MT and Tamil nadu 1.3% to Rs.8685 per MT.
In the futures market prices moved lower for Aug / Sept / Oct marginally. Aug Rs9210; Sept Rs.9260; Oct Rs.8690 per MT. In the spot markets prices have remained similar to last week, expect in Davangere were prices were down by 1.4% to Rs.8406 per MT.
In the month of shravan, with people abstaining from non veg foods in parts of the country, might be one factor for lower prices in some of the consumption states. The Shravan month is observed in South India from July 20 – Aug 20 and in later in the month from Aug 23 – Sept 3, Ganesh festival will be celebrated, which will further reduce the consumption of non veg food and could be a reason for reduced demand of grains, particularly maize now. But as farmers get ready to put in stocks for Sept, demand may rise and so would the prices.
The average prices for July 2009 was Rs.8862 per MT on an average, 2.2% higher than Jun 2009 and 4.4% higher than July 2008 prices.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved lower by about 8% this week to Rs.8670 per MT, but were higher than last year by 8.8%. Prices are lower than maize by 3.8%. Average prices of Pearl Millet in July 2009 was Rs.8860, 3.1% higher than Jun 2009 and 19% higher than Jul 2008.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved up by about 1% to Rs.11892 at the market yard. Prices are 4.3% higher than last week and 24% higher than maize at the market yard. Average July 2009 price was Rs11978 per MT, 11% higher than Jun 2009 and 10.66% higher than Jul 2008.
Barley prices moved up slightly by 0.5% to Rs.7650 per MT, but were lower than last year by 34.5%. Average barley price for July was Rs.7900 per MT, 0.52% higher than Jun 2009 and 26% lower than July 2008.
In the futures market Barley prices have been down marginally by 0.35% for Sep – Oct in the spot market have been stable as last week at Rs.8260 per MT.
The deficiency in rainfall for the period Jun 1- Jul 29 is close to 19%, though there was some advancement of monsoon and some areas did receive rainfall in the last week, including parts of Delhi and Chandigarh. The major chunk of India the agriculture belt (18 sub-divisions) shows deficient rainfall (-20—59%) as per the report on IMD website. Latest reports indicate that farmers have sown more coarse cereals, Oilseeds and Pulses in the last week in wake of good rains in parts of India.The august rainfall will be crucial for the crops and if there is large scale deficiency, some serious measures will need to be taken by the government.
On CBOT, corn prices moved higher by 2-5%. Sept $133.61 (+5.23%); Dec $134.48 (+3.04%); Mar $139.36 (+2.53%). FOB GulF and PNW prices are indicated at $164/166 and $181/191 per MT respectively for August to October 2009 period.
Prices for Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles (DDGS), slipped lower in the US, this making it the most competitive protein/energy ingredient. Delivered prices to SEA region were indicated at $188/190, while FOB Gulf process were indicated at $127 per MT, down by $4 as of last week.
Freight rates have remained stable more or less at $62 for Gulf-Japan sector and $33 for PNW-Japan sector. Freight to China from Brazil-Argentina to China was reported to move lower at $46/147 per MT. Reports also indicate that the Brazilian corn may not be in the market (expect a few destinations) due to higher prices locally and that China also has released some 2 MMT of corn on the domestic market.
Maize prices have moved up by 2.5% over last week to touch Rs.9000 per MT on the pan India average. The prices are similar to last year levels. Data shows, prices have moved up ins tates of Andhra Pradesh, 0.21% to Rs.8325 per MT; Karnataka +2.82% to Rs.8630 per MT and in Uttar Pradesh +4.36% to Rs.9040 per MT. In some states prices have moved lower, Gujarat 2.6% to Rs.9500 per MT; Maharashtra 3.6% to Rs.8900 per MT and Tamil nadu 1.3% to Rs.8685 per MT.
In the futures market prices moved lower for Aug / Sept / Oct marginally. Aug Rs9210; Sept Rs.9260; Oct Rs.8690 per MT. In the spot markets prices have remained similar to last week, expect in Davangere were prices were down by 1.4% to Rs.8406 per MT.
In the month of shravan, with people abstaining from non veg foods in parts of the country, might be one factor for lower prices in some of the consumption states. The Shravan month is observed in South India from July 20 – Aug 20 and in later in the month from Aug 23 – Sept 3, Ganesh festival will be celebrated, which will further reduce the consumption of non veg food and could be a reason for reduced demand of grains, particularly maize now. But as farmers get ready to put in stocks for Sept, demand may rise and so would the prices.
The average prices for July 2009 was Rs.8862 per MT on an average, 2.2% higher than Jun 2009 and 4.4% higher than July 2008 prices.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved lower by about 8% this week to Rs.8670 per MT, but were higher than last year by 8.8%. Prices are lower than maize by 3.8%. Average prices of Pearl Millet in July 2009 was Rs.8860, 3.1% higher than Jun 2009 and 19% higher than Jul 2008.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved up by about 1% to Rs.11892 at the market yard. Prices are 4.3% higher than last week and 24% higher than maize at the market yard. Average July 2009 price was Rs11978 per MT, 11% higher than Jun 2009 and 10.66% higher than Jul 2008.
Barley prices moved up slightly by 0.5% to Rs.7650 per MT, but were lower than last year by 34.5%. Average barley price for July was Rs.7900 per MT, 0.52% higher than Jun 2009 and 26% lower than July 2008.
In the futures market Barley prices have been down marginally by 0.35% for Sep – Oct in the spot market have been stable as last week at Rs.8260 per MT.
The deficiency in rainfall for the period Jun 1- Jul 29 is close to 19%, though there was some advancement of monsoon and some areas did receive rainfall in the last week, including parts of Delhi and Chandigarh. The major chunk of India the agriculture belt (18 sub-divisions) shows deficient rainfall (-20—59%) as per the report on IMD website. Latest reports indicate that farmers have sown more coarse cereals, Oilseeds and Pulses in the last week in wake of good rains in parts of India.The august rainfall will be crucial for the crops and if there is large scale deficiency, some serious measures will need to be taken by the government.
On CBOT, corn prices moved higher by 2-5%. Sept $133.61 (+5.23%); Dec $134.48 (+3.04%); Mar $139.36 (+2.53%). FOB GulF and PNW prices are indicated at $164/166 and $181/191 per MT respectively for August to October 2009 period.
Prices for Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles (DDGS), slipped lower in the US, this making it the most competitive protein/energy ingredient. Delivered prices to SEA region were indicated at $188/190, while FOB Gulf process were indicated at $127 per MT, down by $4 as of last week.
Freight rates have remained stable more or less at $62 for Gulf-Japan sector and $33 for PNW-Japan sector. Freight to China from Brazil-Argentina to China was reported to move lower at $46/147 per MT. Reports also indicate that the Brazilian corn may not be in the market (expect a few destinations) due to higher prices locally and that China also has released some 2 MMT of corn on the domestic market.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com
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