Trendline, prices of coarse cereals move up, new target fixed for foodgrain production; The new germplasm for cattle in India

Trendline, prices of coarse cereals move up, new target fixed for foodgrain production

Maize prices remained stable in India on an average at Rs.9300 per MT at the market yard. Prices are higher by 8% against last year. Prices were down in Maharashtra 2% to Rs.9100; Rajasthan 5% to Rs.9550; Tamil Nadu 1.5% to Rs.8600 per MT. In Gujarat the prices remained stable, while in Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh prices moved up by 3.7% to Rs.10000 per MT and 1% to Rs.8430 per MT respectively at the market yard.

On the futures market, only one contract is being traded Oct 2009 and the price was up by 1.4% to Rs.9045 per MT. While in the spot markets the prices moved lower, Nizamabad down 0.76% to Rs.8975 per MT; Karimnagar down 1.24% to Rs.8739 per MT; and Davangere down 0.4% Rs.8820 per MT.

Pearl Millet prices were up by 1% to Rs.8920 per MT and were higher than last year by 20%. Prices were down by 3.6% against maize. Due to less rainfall in areas of Rajasthan, Haryana, though Pearl Millet has been sown and in some areas harvest has already been done the coverage is not good and production may not be upto the mark.

Sorghum prices as per the information available dipped by 27.6% to Rs.9600 range, but are still higher than last year by 5.6% and 4.1% higher than maize prices at the market yard, Even though the prices were down on an average, prices in Gujarat and Tamil nadu were close to Rs.11300 – 12000 per MT at the market yard. Target of Rabi sorghum has been set at 3.9 MMT for 2009/10.

Barley prices have moved up by 2.8% to Rs.7140 per MT. prices are lower than last year by 34.6%. Overall in the futures as well as the spot markets, the prices were lower than last week. Oct down 0.6% to Rs.8790 per Mt, Dec down 0.75% to Rs.9160 per MT; April down 1% to Rs.9200 per T. In the Jaipur spot market the price was down by 0.6% to Rs.8282 per MT. Target for barley production in 2009/10 has been set at 1.55 MMT. Prices of feed Markey dropped significantly in US to $165/170 per MT FOB US Gulf.

As per the recent report from IMD, the overall deficit of rainfall for the period Jun 1 to 23 Sept have moved up to 22% an increase of 1%. For the period, meteorological division of West UP and Telangana have a deficit of 42% and 41% respectively. While the West Rajasthan and Eastern UP have a deficit of 39 and 38% respectively. Gujarat Region, east Madhya Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Vidharbha, Chattisgarh, Coastal AP, Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam Meghalaya, Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura (NMMT) and Arunachal Pradesh, all have a deficit ranging from 25% to 33%. Even though NMMT, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam Meghalaya received excess rainfall for the period Sept 17 – 23, 2009, the deficit still remains.

At the district level 9% have received excess rainfall, against 31% last year, 35% have received normal rainfall against 47% last year, 49% received deficient rainfall against 21% last year and 7% received scanty rainfall against 1% last year.

At the recently concluded Rabi conference GOI has set a target to produce 8 MMT of more food grains in Rabi season to offset the shortfall that may be there in Khariff. Wheat increase land by 0.5 Mill hac and additional production of 2 MMT; Rice additional land of 1.2 – 1.5 Mill hac and additional production of 3.4 – 4 mill hac; Pulses, additional land of 1.5 mill hac and production enhancement by 1.0 MMT; oilseeds additional land by 1 mill hac and leading to additional production of 1.2 MMT; additional 1 mill hac under coarse cereals (Maize, sorghum and pearl millet) and additional production of 1.5 MMT.

The strategy for enhancing rabi production would include bridging the gap between potential and present productivity levels through integrated nutrients management, zero tillage, use of improved varieties and treated seeds.

On CBOT corn was stable for Dec contract and was 4.17% higher for March contract to $135.58 per MT. The FOB values of corn for US Gulf and PNW have also gone up to $164 per MT and $196/198 per MT respectively for Oct – Dec window.

DDGS prices have moved up this week on higher demand domestically and also lower supplies as reports suggest that few of the ethanol plants are close for annual maintenance. The price are indicate at $140-144 per MT FOB US Gulf and the CNF value for SEA region was indicated at $210 – 220 per MT. The freight market is down at at least $2 per MT for Gulf-Japan and PNW-Japan sector. Even Argentina/Brazil – China rates are down to $41/42 per MT.

The big question this week was, would china import corn? Experts are of the opinion that china has the demand and the production is down by atleast 10%, but the stockpiles are there and the government is likely to release more corn into the market. But the prices continue to be higher.

The new germplasm for cattle in India

In the most recent development, GOI has allowed import of sexed semen into India. The sexed semen use gives a guarantee of at least 90% females as against 50% female calves in normal semen. While the number of female calves corn may be more, but the conception rate is compromised, but it is a fair compromise as farmers do not want any males and the female calf born will enhance the productivity in the next generation and net take home for the farmer. The new guidelines out in July 2009 have made sure that farmers can utilize the new technologies that are in use in developed nations.

Bovine germplasm imports are on the restricted list and farmers in Punjab got together under the banner of Progressive Dairy Farmers Association (PDFA) and imported new genetics from USA for use at their farms. Thanks to GOI, Department of AH and the state government, farmers now will be able to enhance the productivity of animals in the next generation. Even though the imported semen is expensive, the value addition will be much greater and the increased productivity will more than cover the cost of inputs. The enhanced productivity would need increased use of balanced feed and fodder, but will also increase the returns to the farmer in the long run. The new germplasm is tested free of exotic diseases, genetic disorders as per the GOI protocol and guidelines, before it is allowed to be imported and used in the country.

Increasing productivity is one way to get people back on the dairy production and generate employment avenues in the rural areas.

Amit Sachdev

India representative

U S Grains Council

E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Mixed bag for commodity prices, poultry prices lower

Mixed bag for commodity prices, poultry prices lower

Maize prices moved lower by about 0.7% at the market yard to Rs.9290 per MT. Against last year the prices were higher by abut 8%. Prices across the country moved lower in almost all markets, Andhra Pradesh down 2% to Rs.8370 per MT; Gujarat down 1% to Rs.10056 per MT; Karnataka down 8% to Rs.8875 per MT; Rajasthan down 3.4% to Rs.10050 per MT; Uttar Pradesh down 0.8% to Rs.9590 per MT. It was only in Tamil Nadu that prices were reported to be up by 1% to Rs.8736 per MT.

In the futures market the price was stable for one contract (Oct) at Rs.8920 per MT. While prices at Karinmagar and Nizamabad were down by 1.4% to Rs.8850 per MT and Rs.9044 per MT respectively, prices in Davangere were up by 1.5% to Rs.8860 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were down by 0.8% to Rs.8840 per MT, about 13.6% higher than last year. Prices were about 5% lower than maize at the market yard.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices were up by 2% this week to Rs.13300 per MT. the prices were 29% higher than last year and 30% higher than maize.

Barley prices in the market yard were down by 16% to Rs.6942 per MT. Prices were down by 37% against last year. Barley prices in US were stable T $185 per MT, FOB US Gulf.  

In the futures market as well, prices were down for October contract by 1.8% to Rs.8848 per MT. Dec contract was stable at Rs.9230 per MT. April contract was up by 1.6% to Rs.9300 per MR. At the Jaipur market, the price was down by 1.6% to Rs.8336 per MT.

On CBOT for the two contracts Dec and Mar prices were down by about 0.8% to $124.95 and $130.15 per MT respectively. FOB US Gulf is indicated at $156-161 per MT for Oct – February, while FOB PNW is indicated at $179/183 per MT. Freight rates are more or stable USGulf- Japan, PNW Japan sector as last week.

DDGS prices moved a little higher $138-147 per MT FOB US Gulf due to higher domestic as well as overseas demand. The CNF prices were close to $201-209 per MT for SEA region. This is a normal trend for the prices of DDGS to move up during the fall and winter season. CGM the source of protein in the US is indicated at $610 per MT US Gulf.

For the period 10^th Sept to 16^th Sept the rainfall has been deficient by 41%, and the overall deficiency is up one percent to 21% for the period Jun 1 – Sept 16, 2009.

There are reports that the poultry (live chicken) prices are down in the wholesale market, while the cost of production is much higher. With the current cost of Hatching Egg at Rs.14 each the prices of Chick at Rs.20/22 each, feed cost at Rs.16/17 per kg, the cost of production of a kg of live chicken is Rs.46 – 50. This may be a temporary phenomenon and as soon the hindu festival season is over the demand will increase and prices would be back on track. But till that time, farmers are losing money.

Amit Sachdev

India representative

U S Grains Council

usgcindia@gmail.com

Prices move up in India; Second largest corn crop expected in US

Prices move up in India; Second largest corn crop expected in US

Maize prices moved up by about 1% at the market yard to Rs.9350 per MT on an average. Prices were higher than last year by about 7%. Average prices were higher in almost all production centers like Andhra Pradesh, up 3% tp Rs.8550 per MT; Gujarat up 3% to Rs.10166 per MT; Karnataka up 3.4% to Rs.9650 per MT; Mahrashtra up 2.3% to Rs.9300 per MT, Tamil Nadu up 0.7% to Rs.8640 per MT and Uttar Pradesh up 0.8% to Rs.9675 per MT. It was only in Rajasthan that the prices moved lower by 1% to Rs.10,400 per MT.

In the futures market, prices were down for the two contracts Sept down 1.6% to Rs.9430 per MT; Oct down 0.5% to Rs.8910 per MT. In the spot markets as well prices were sightly lower than last week. Nizamabad down 1.2% to Rs.9171 per MT; Karimnagar down 0.5% to Rs.8979 per MT and Davangere was up 2.2% to Rs.8725 per MT.

Pearl Millet price was down 2.7% at the market yard to Rs.8900 per MT, but remained higher than last year by 16.6%. Against maize price price were lower by 5%. For the Khariff season, Bajra has been planted on 6.89 Mill hac against 7.32 Mill hac in 2008/09. The land under Pearl Millet is lower than the normal area of 9.1 Mill Hac.

Sorghum prices moved up by 9.3% at the market yard to Rs.13050 per MT, about 26% higher than last year and 28.3% higher than maize. Area under sorghum for 2009/10 Khariff is 2.87 mill hac, slightly higher than 2.80 mill hac planted last year, but lower than the normal area of 4.2 Mill hac.

Barley prices at the market yard moved lower bt about 1% to Rs.8270 per MT and were lower than last year by 11.2%. In the futures markettoo, prices were lower. Sept down 1.5% to R.8720 per MT; Oct down 0.7% to Rs.9010 per MT and Dec up 0.3% to Rs.9252 per Mt. Apr contract was quoted at Rs.9150 per MT. In the jaipur spot market, prices were down by 0.5% to Rs.8470 per MT.

In the last one week Sep 3 - 9, 2009, the overall rainfall has been 21% higher than the average and almost the whole country has received the rainfall, which has provided much needed moisture to the soil. The rainfall is good for not only Khariff crops but also the Rabi crops that will be planted in Oct/Nov 2009. The overall deficit on rainfall is down to 20% for the period Jun 01 to Sept 09, 2009.

On CBOT the prices moved up by almost 5% for the near month contract. Sept $123.77 per MT, up 4.8%; Dec $125.97, up 4.57%; Mar $131.21 per MT, up 4.16%. FOB prices US Gulf were higher at $157/158 per MT for the period Sept/Nov 2009. For FOB PNW the prices were $188/189 per MT. Sorghum was indicated at $155 per MT (FOB US Gulf).

As per the new WASDE report, US is expecting a second highest coen crop of 13 billion bushels (330 MMT), and the productivity is expected at 4.11 MT/Acre. China on the other hand is facing a drough situation and the production is expected at 160 MMT. Trade is of the opinion that the production would be 150 MMT. The Chinese GOI has sold 1.86 MMT of corn in the open market and more will be sold in the near future. Over all corn production has been estimated lower and the world ending stocks have also been cut by 2 MMT.

DDGS prices (FOB US Gulf) were indicated at $133 - 148 per MT for the period Sept - Dec 2009, while the CNF price SEA region were indicated at $191 - 207 per Mt for the same period. The demand for DDGS is rising and the most recent buyers in the list is China. Corn Gluten Meal is trading at $585 per MT (FOB US Gulf).

The freight rates have been more or less stable, US Gulf - Japan $57 per Mt, while PNW - Japan $30 per MT. Argentina/Brazil to China at $43/44 per MT.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Commodity prices lower, monsoon spreads, but still lower

Commodity prices lower, monsoon spreads, but still lower

Maize prices on pan India average at the market yard remained stable at Rs.9200-9300 per MT range. Prices were higher than last year by 11.2% in the first week of Sept. Prices were reportd to be down in Andhra Pradesh (2%), Gujarat (7%), Tamil Nadu (5.7%) and up in Rajasthan (1.7%) and Uttar Pradesh (1.6%). Prices were reported to be stable in Maharashtra.

On NCDEX the price of maize for the two contracts moved lower in anticipation of a higher crop. Sept prices were down by 1.6% to Rs.9590 per MT, while Oct delivery was down by 3.5% to Rs.8955 per MT. Spot prices in Nizamabad were down by 1.8% to Rs.9282 per MT; Karimnagar down 2.6% to Rs.9025 per MT and Davanghere down 0.4% to Rs.8530 per MT.

Pearl Millet prices moved up by 1.2% to Rs.9120 per MT. Prices remained higher than last year by 30.2% and were just 1.2% higher than maize at the market yard.

Sorghum prices tumbled by 12.1% at the market yard to Rs.11937 per MT, but were higher than last year by 12%. Against maize the prices were higher by 22.3%.

With the alternate energy source prices moving higher, the demand of maize is likely to be higher and pressure will be on maize by the poultry sector.

Barley prices moved up slightly by 1.3% to Rs.8350 per MT, but remained lower than last year by 15.4%. On NCDEX the prices for the three contracts were lower. Sept down 1.84% to Rs.8852 per MT; Oct down 1% to Rs.9080 per MT and Dec down 0.5% to Rs.9220 per MT. Prices in Jaipur spot market were lower by 1% to Rs.8512 per MT.

Reports are that the Barley production in North America would be largest ever and that the quantity and quality of malting barley would also be better. Current barley price (FOB US Gulf) is $185 per MT.

On CBOT, corn prices were down by more than 6%. Sept corn close down 6.24% at $118.10 per MT, Dec down 5.9% at 120.46% and Mar corn down 6.4% at 125.97 per MT. The FOB value (US Gulf) was down to $152/153 per MT, while FOB PNW was down 183/184 per MT for the period Sept - Dec 2009. Sorghum prices (FOB US Gulf) was down to $150/151 selling at par with corn.

DDGS prices for sept were indicated at $122 (FOB US Gulf), while for Oct - Nov were indicated at $133 and 138 respectively. DDGS (CNF), SEA region were close to $195-200 for Thailand for Oct-Nov.

The freight rates have moved up slightly Gulf-Japan was indicated at $57 per MT, up from last weeks $52 per MT, PNW-Japan was indicated at $29 per MT, up from $25 last week.

India's monsoon has spread and for the week ending Sept 2, 2009, the rainfall was 4% above normal. Only 10 meteorological divisions received deficiency to scanty rainfall. The overall deficit for the period Jun 1 to Sept 2, 2009 is down to 23%. with 12 divisions receiving Excess (1) to Normal Rainfall (11) and 24 divisions receiving Deficient (23) to Scanty (1) rainfall.

The map for the seasonal rainfall for the period Jun 1 - Sept 2, 2009 can be seen using the link below.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/hydro/dynamic/seasonal-rainfall.htm

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
Email: usgcindia@gmail.com