Trendline, prices of coarse cereals move up, new target fixed for foodgrain production
Maize prices remained stable in India on an average at Rs.9300 per MT at the market yard. Prices are higher by 8% against last year. Prices were down in Maharashtra 2% to Rs.9100; Rajasthan 5% to Rs.9550; Tamil Nadu 1.5% to Rs.8600 per MT. In Gujarat the prices remained stable, while in Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh prices moved up by 3.7% to Rs.10000 per MT and 1% to Rs.8430 per MT respectively at the market yard.
On the futures market, only one contract is being traded Oct 2009 and the price was up by 1.4% to Rs.9045 per MT. While in the spot markets the prices moved lower, Nizamabad down 0.76% to Rs.8975 per MT; Karimnagar down 1.24% to Rs.8739 per MT; and Davangere down 0.4% Rs.8820 per MT.
Pearl Millet prices were up by 1% to Rs.8920 per MT and were higher than last year by 20%. Prices were down by 3.6% against maize. Due to less rainfall in areas of Rajasthan, Haryana, though Pearl Millet has been sown and in some areas harvest has already been done the coverage is not good and production may not be upto the mark.
Sorghum prices as per the information available dipped by 27.6% to Rs.9600 range, but are still higher than last year by 5.6% and 4.1% higher than maize prices at the market yard, Even though the prices were down on an average, prices in Gujarat and Tamil nadu were close to Rs.11300 – 12000 per MT at the market yard. Target of Rabi sorghum has been set at 3.9 MMT for 2009/10.
Barley prices have moved up by 2.8% to Rs.7140 per MT. prices are lower than last year by 34.6%. Overall in the futures as well as the spot markets, the prices were lower than last week. Oct down 0.6% to Rs.8790 per Mt, Dec down 0.75% to Rs.9160 per MT; April down 1% to Rs.9200 per T. In the Jaipur spot market the price was down by 0.6% to Rs.8282 per MT. Target for barley production in 2009/10 has been set at 1.55 MMT. Prices of feed Markey dropped significantly in US to $165/170 per MT FOB US Gulf.
As per the recent report from IMD, the overall deficit of rainfall for the period Jun 1 to 23 Sept have moved up to 22% an increase of 1%. For the period, meteorological division of West UP and Telangana have a deficit of 42% and 41% respectively. While the West Rajasthan and Eastern UP have a deficit of 39 and 38% respectively. Gujarat Region, east Madhya Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Vidharbha, Chattisgarh, Coastal AP, Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam Meghalaya, Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura (NMMT) and Arunachal Pradesh, all have a deficit ranging from 25% to 33%. Even though NMMT, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam Meghalaya received excess rainfall for the period Sept 17 – 23, 2009, the deficit still remains.
At the district level 9% have received excess rainfall, against 31% last year, 35% have received normal rainfall against 47% last year, 49% received deficient rainfall against 21% last year and 7% received scanty rainfall against 1% last year.
At the recently concluded Rabi conference GOI has set a target to produce 8 MMT of more food grains in Rabi season to offset the shortfall that may be there in Khariff. Wheat increase land by 0.5 Mill hac and additional production of 2 MMT; Rice additional land of 1.2 – 1.5 Mill hac and additional production of 3.4 – 4 mill hac; Pulses, additional land of 1.5 mill hac and production enhancement by 1.0 MMT; oilseeds additional land by 1 mill hac and leading to additional production of 1.2 MMT; additional 1 mill hac under coarse cereals (Maize, sorghum and pearl millet) and additional production of 1.5 MMT.
The strategy for enhancing rabi production would include bridging the gap between potential and present productivity levels through integrated nutrients management, zero tillage, use of improved varieties and treated seeds.
On CBOT corn was stable for Dec contract and was 4.17% higher for March contract to $135.58 per MT. The FOB values of corn for US Gulf and PNW have also gone up to $164 per MT and $196/198 per MT respectively for Oct – Dec window.
DDGS prices have moved up this week on higher demand domestically and also lower supplies as reports suggest that few of the ethanol plants are close for annual maintenance. The price are indicate at $140-144 per MT FOB US Gulf and the CNF value for SEA region was indicated at $210 – 220 per MT. The freight market is down at at least $2 per MT for Gulf-Japan and PNW-Japan sector. Even Argentina/Brazil – China rates are down to $41/42 per MT.
The big question this week was, would china import corn? Experts are of the opinion that china has the demand and the production is down by atleast 10%, but the stockpiles are there and the government is likely to release more corn into the market. But the prices continue to be higher.
The new germplasm for cattle in India
In the most recent development, GOI has allowed import of sexed semen into India. The sexed semen use gives a guarantee of at least 90% females as against 50% female calves in normal semen. While the number of female calves corn may be more, but the conception rate is compromised, but it is a fair compromise as farmers do not want any males and the female calf born will enhance the productivity in the next generation and net take home for the farmer. The new guidelines out in July 2009 have made sure that farmers can utilize the new technologies that are in use in developed nations.
Bovine germplasm imports are on the restricted list and farmers in Punjab got together under the banner of Progressive Dairy Farmers Association (PDFA) and imported new genetics from USA for use at their farms. Thanks to GOI, Department of AH and the state government, farmers now will be able to enhance the productivity of animals in the next generation. Even though the imported semen is expensive, the value addition will be much greater and the increased productivity will more than cover the cost of inputs. The enhanced productivity would need increased use of balanced feed and fodder, but will also increase the returns to the farmer in the long run. The new germplasm is tested free of exotic diseases, genetic disorders as per the GOI protocol and guidelines, before it is allowed to be imported and used in the country.
Increasing productivity is one way to get people back on the dairy production and generate employment avenues in the rural areas.
Amit Sachdev
India representative
U S Grains Council
E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com
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