No major effect on prices due to floods
Maize prices moved up slightly by about 1% to Rs.9022 per MT at the market yard. Against last year the prices were higher by 8.6%. Prices were down in Andhra Pradesh by 4% to Rs.8600 per MT; Gujarat by 3.8% to Rs.9400 per MT; and Tamil Nadu by 1.7% to Rs.8400 per MT. Prices moved up by 2% in Karnataka to Rs.8800 per MT; 2.2% in Rajasthan to Rs.9500 per MT and 1.5% in Uttar Pradesh to Rs.9500 per MT.
In the futures market though the prices were down by 1% to Rs.9000 per MT. In the Spot markets in Nizamabad and Karimnagar prices were up by 1.7% to Rs.9073 per MT and 0.1% to Rs.8800 per MT respectively. In Davangere the prices were down by 0.6% to Rs.8700 per MT.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have moved up this week by 2.5% to Rs.9500 per MT at the market yard. Prices are higher than last year by 21.6% and higher than maize by 4.7%. In the northern market though the prices are lower than maize by 1.5% and the new crop being harvested is being used in poultry rations in some areas.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices have moved lower by 14.3% this week to Rs.10900 per MT, but remained higher than last year by 17.3%. Against maize the prices were higher by 16.9%.
Barley prices also were lower than last week by 9% to Rs.8000 per MT. Against last year, the prices were lower by 20.5%. In the futures market, all three contracts moved lower, Oct down 2.92% to Rs.8492 per MT; Dec down 3.59% to Rs.8810 per MT and April down 2.13% to Rs.9150 per MT. In the spot market, Jaipur prices moved lower by 0.6% to Rs.8255 per MT.
Last week saw unprecedented rains and floods in the deccan penninsula, extending from Goa to Vijaywada covering the states of Goa, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Press reports indicate about 0.9 t0 1 Mill hac, and crops like Paddy, Sorghum, Maize, Pulses etc have fallen victim to the rains and floods. Some experts have put the damage at 1 - 1.3 MMT for maize. Press reports have indicated 2.5 Mill hac of land effected by floods in Karnataka alone and paddy crop is expected to be down by 3.0 MMT in Andhra Pradesh due to drought conditions and now rains and floods.
Corn prices in CBOT made huge gains this week and prices were up by almost 7 - 8%. Dec up 8.2% to $142.35 per MT; Mar up 8.37% to $147.62 per MT and May up 7.82% at $150.77 per MT. The FOB gulf prices have also gained and are up to $174/176 per MT for the period Oct'09 to Feb'10. FOB PNW is up to $197/200 per MT for the same period.
Freight rates too have moved up as the economy responds. Gulf-Japan rate is up to $58.50 per MT, while PNW-Japan rate is up to $32 per MT.
More corn expected in USA and demand set to increase in India
The latest USDA report (WASDE) has put the corn production in US at 330.6 MMT a 1 MMT increase over Sept 2009 projection. The 2009 crop is expected to be 7.5% higher than 2008, when the crop was 307.36 MMT. The main reason for higher production is the producivity, which is expected to be 4.17 tons per acre. The Sept 2009 projection was 4.11 tons per acre.
The report also increases the total use of corn slightly to 330.96 MMT and that in due to increase in Food, Seed and Industrial category. The ending stocks are expected to be up tp 43.52 MMT against Sept 2009 projection of 41.53 MMT.
The world production of corn in 2009 is put at 792.54 MMT, slighly lower than the Sept projection of 794.06 MMT. The total use is expected at 803.14 MMT, up from Sept projection of 799.62 MMT. The world ending stocks are expected to be 136.25 MMT. In 2008 the world production of corn is estimated at 791.28 and total use 774.72 MMT. the ending stocks in 2008 were expected at 146.84 MMT.
China's production is expected to fall to 155 MMT from sept proejction of 160 MMT and its use is expected to be higher at 159 MMT against earlier estimates of 158 MMT. The ending stocks will be close to 48.64 MMT, down from earlier projected 54.64 MMT.
India's total demand for the end user sectors is expected at 12.46 MMT including Poultry at 7.87 MMT, starch at 1.87 MMT; Livestock at 2.69 MMT and Brewery at 0.3 MMT. The food use of corn in India is expected at 4.87 MMT. Thus the total demand for corn would be 17.6 MMT from Oct 2009 to Sept 2010. This demand does not take into account any export and seed use of corn. Farmers normally keep corn seeds and use the same in the fields.
With Khariff corn being effected due to drought and then by excess rains and floods, rabi corn has to be enough to cover the loss in Khariff as per some experts and trade.
Maize prices moved up slightly by about 1% to Rs.9022 per MT at the market yard. Against last year the prices were higher by 8.6%. Prices were down in Andhra Pradesh by 4% to Rs.8600 per MT; Gujarat by 3.8% to Rs.9400 per MT; and Tamil Nadu by 1.7% to Rs.8400 per MT. Prices moved up by 2% in Karnataka to Rs.8800 per MT; 2.2% in Rajasthan to Rs.9500 per MT and 1.5% in Uttar Pradesh to Rs.9500 per MT.
In the futures market though the prices were down by 1% to Rs.9000 per MT. In the Spot markets in Nizamabad and Karimnagar prices were up by 1.7% to Rs.9073 per MT and 0.1% to Rs.8800 per MT respectively. In Davangere the prices were down by 0.6% to Rs.8700 per MT.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have moved up this week by 2.5% to Rs.9500 per MT at the market yard. Prices are higher than last year by 21.6% and higher than maize by 4.7%. In the northern market though the prices are lower than maize by 1.5% and the new crop being harvested is being used in poultry rations in some areas.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices have moved lower by 14.3% this week to Rs.10900 per MT, but remained higher than last year by 17.3%. Against maize the prices were higher by 16.9%.
Barley prices also were lower than last week by 9% to Rs.8000 per MT. Against last year, the prices were lower by 20.5%. In the futures market, all three contracts moved lower, Oct down 2.92% to Rs.8492 per MT; Dec down 3.59% to Rs.8810 per MT and April down 2.13% to Rs.9150 per MT. In the spot market, Jaipur prices moved lower by 0.6% to Rs.8255 per MT.
Last week saw unprecedented rains and floods in the deccan penninsula, extending from Goa to Vijaywada covering the states of Goa, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Press reports indicate about 0.9 t0 1 Mill hac, and crops like Paddy, Sorghum, Maize, Pulses etc have fallen victim to the rains and floods. Some experts have put the damage at 1 - 1.3 MMT for maize. Press reports have indicated 2.5 Mill hac of land effected by floods in Karnataka alone and paddy crop is expected to be down by 3.0 MMT in Andhra Pradesh due to drought conditions and now rains and floods.
Corn prices in CBOT made huge gains this week and prices were up by almost 7 - 8%. Dec up 8.2% to $142.35 per MT; Mar up 8.37% to $147.62 per MT and May up 7.82% at $150.77 per MT. The FOB gulf prices have also gained and are up to $174/176 per MT for the period Oct'09 to Feb'10. FOB PNW is up to $197/200 per MT for the same period.
Freight rates too have moved up as the economy responds. Gulf-Japan rate is up to $58.50 per MT, while PNW-Japan rate is up to $32 per MT.
More corn expected in USA and demand set to increase in India
The latest USDA report (WASDE) has put the corn production in US at 330.6 MMT a 1 MMT increase over Sept 2009 projection. The 2009 crop is expected to be 7.5% higher than 2008, when the crop was 307.36 MMT. The main reason for higher production is the producivity, which is expected to be 4.17 tons per acre. The Sept 2009 projection was 4.11 tons per acre.
The report also increases the total use of corn slightly to 330.96 MMT and that in due to increase in Food, Seed and Industrial category. The ending stocks are expected to be up tp 43.52 MMT against Sept 2009 projection of 41.53 MMT.
The world production of corn in 2009 is put at 792.54 MMT, slighly lower than the Sept projection of 794.06 MMT. The total use is expected at 803.14 MMT, up from Sept projection of 799.62 MMT. The world ending stocks are expected to be 136.25 MMT. In 2008 the world production of corn is estimated at 791.28 and total use 774.72 MMT. the ending stocks in 2008 were expected at 146.84 MMT.
China's production is expected to fall to 155 MMT from sept proejction of 160 MMT and its use is expected to be higher at 159 MMT against earlier estimates of 158 MMT. The ending stocks will be close to 48.64 MMT, down from earlier projected 54.64 MMT.
India's total demand for the end user sectors is expected at 12.46 MMT including Poultry at 7.87 MMT, starch at 1.87 MMT; Livestock at 2.69 MMT and Brewery at 0.3 MMT. The food use of corn in India is expected at 4.87 MMT. Thus the total demand for corn would be 17.6 MMT from Oct 2009 to Sept 2010. This demand does not take into account any export and seed use of corn. Farmers normally keep corn seeds and use the same in the fields.
With Khariff corn being effected due to drought and then by excess rains and floods, rabi corn has to be enough to cover the loss in Khariff as per some experts and trade.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
Email: usgcindia@gmail.com
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