Coarse grain prices move lower - but for a short time
Maize prices at the market yard moved lower by Rs.200 (2%) per MT to Rs.9300 range, but remained higher than last year by 15.7%. In Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Tamil nadu prices were up by 0.62%, 2% and 3% to Rs.8600, Rs.10,550 and Rs.8860 per MT respectively. In Karnataka and Maharashtra prices were stable at Rs.8400 per MT at the market yard. Gujarat average prices was close to Rs.9900 per MT, down 1.4%. Prices in Uttar Pradesh corrected at Rs.9233 per MT, down 15.3%. This could be an anomaly, as the trade informs that the average price at Mandi (market yard) is about Rs.9400 per MT (loose) and packed, ready to move maize would be close to Rs.10500 per MT. Delivered prices in North India and heading north, and maize is being delivered in Punjab and Haryana at Rs.11,200 per MT.
Average price of Nov 2009 was Rs.9333 per MT, about 15% higher than Nov 2008 and 2.7% higher than Oct 2009.
Reports also indicate that there are some quality issues maize in Karnataka (water damage), but the quantum may not be as big and limited area was affected due to rains.
In the futures market (NCDEX), all contracts were down, Dec down 0.3% to Rs.9860; Jan down 0.3% to Rs.10210 per MT; Feb down 0.65% 10550 per MT; Mar down 1.09% to Rs.10810 per MT. Experts believe that this could be due to the Dubai debacle as well. In the Spot market priced moved up, Nizamabad up 1.56% to Rs.9420; karimnagar up 5.22% to Rs.9399 per MT, while prices in Davangere were stable at Rs.9170 per MT. On MCX, Dec contract was up by 0.2% to Rs.9850 per MT and prices in Nizamabad Spot market was close to Rs.9250 per MT.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved lower by 3.2% to Rs.10090 per MT, but were higher than last year by 28%. Prices are higher than maize by 8%. Average price for Nov 2009 is Rs.10361 per MT, 38% higher than Nov 2008 and 9% higher than Oct 2009.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved down by 3.7% to Rs.13765 per MT, remained higher than last year by 35.6%. Prices are higher than maize by 32.5%. Average prices for Nov 2009 was Rs.13179 per MT, 45% higher than Nov 2008 and 10.45% higher than Oct 2009.
Barley prices added 13.8% to the tally to Rs.10480 per MT. For the first time is many weeks, barley prices are higher than last year's by 12.3%. Average price for Nov 2009 was Rs.9578 per MT, 3.2% higher than Nov 2008 and 22% higher than Oct 2009.
In the US, the harvest is going on, but is much delayed. Reports indicate 68% of the corn crop is harvest against 87% harvested last year. Sorghum harvest is much better at 75%, but is lower than last years 87%. Soybean harvest is only 3% short at 94% against last year's 97% harvest at this time of the year. This week was a short working week, due to Thankgiving Holiday and possibly by this week the harvest would move faster as farmers would like to put in the corn in storage.
On CBOT, prices gained, possible due to delayed harvest weaker dollar. Also as farmers are not selling currently, prices are reported to be higher. Dec up 1.58% to $156.36 per MT; Mar up 1.37% to $162.74 per MT; May contract up 1.68% to $166.92 per MT. FOB gulf is indicated at $186/190 per MT for Dec - April while FOB PNW is indicated at $210/214 per Mt for the same period. Sorghum (FOB US Gulf) was indicated at $195/197, 3.5 to 4% higher than corn. Argentinian and Brazilian corn is being offered at $175 and $188 per MT respectively on FOB basis.
DDGS prices were stable at $166/170 per MT (FOB US gulf), but with container prices moving up, delivered prices to the region may be moving up.
Food inflation in India is inching up day by day. Reports show almost 100% increase in retail prices of some of the staple food products, specially pulses (Dal), which provides protein to the Indian population. India is the largest consumer of sugar and its low production has created a shortage and retail prices are up to Rs.38 - 40 per Kg. Last year Sugar was selling at Rs.18 per kg in the retail market. With overall deficit in grain production and demand increasing, would Rabi be able to cover the loss in Khariff, possibly not, but there is hope.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com
Maize prices at the market yard moved lower by Rs.200 (2%) per MT to Rs.9300 range, but remained higher than last year by 15.7%. In Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Tamil nadu prices were up by 0.62%, 2% and 3% to Rs.8600, Rs.10,550 and Rs.8860 per MT respectively. In Karnataka and Maharashtra prices were stable at Rs.8400 per MT at the market yard. Gujarat average prices was close to Rs.9900 per MT, down 1.4%. Prices in Uttar Pradesh corrected at Rs.9233 per MT, down 15.3%. This could be an anomaly, as the trade informs that the average price at Mandi (market yard) is about Rs.9400 per MT (loose) and packed, ready to move maize would be close to Rs.10500 per MT. Delivered prices in North India and heading north, and maize is being delivered in Punjab and Haryana at Rs.11,200 per MT.
Average price of Nov 2009 was Rs.9333 per MT, about 15% higher than Nov 2008 and 2.7% higher than Oct 2009.
Reports also indicate that there are some quality issues maize in Karnataka (water damage), but the quantum may not be as big and limited area was affected due to rains.
In the futures market (NCDEX), all contracts were down, Dec down 0.3% to Rs.9860; Jan down 0.3% to Rs.10210 per MT; Feb down 0.65% 10550 per MT; Mar down 1.09% to Rs.10810 per MT. Experts believe that this could be due to the Dubai debacle as well. In the Spot market priced moved up, Nizamabad up 1.56% to Rs.9420; karimnagar up 5.22% to Rs.9399 per MT, while prices in Davangere were stable at Rs.9170 per MT. On MCX, Dec contract was up by 0.2% to Rs.9850 per MT and prices in Nizamabad Spot market was close to Rs.9250 per MT.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved lower by 3.2% to Rs.10090 per MT, but were higher than last year by 28%. Prices are higher than maize by 8%. Average price for Nov 2009 is Rs.10361 per MT, 38% higher than Nov 2008 and 9% higher than Oct 2009.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved down by 3.7% to Rs.13765 per MT, remained higher than last year by 35.6%. Prices are higher than maize by 32.5%. Average prices for Nov 2009 was Rs.13179 per MT, 45% higher than Nov 2008 and 10.45% higher than Oct 2009.
Barley prices added 13.8% to the tally to Rs.10480 per MT. For the first time is many weeks, barley prices are higher than last year's by 12.3%. Average price for Nov 2009 was Rs.9578 per MT, 3.2% higher than Nov 2008 and 22% higher than Oct 2009.
In the US, the harvest is going on, but is much delayed. Reports indicate 68% of the corn crop is harvest against 87% harvested last year. Sorghum harvest is much better at 75%, but is lower than last years 87%. Soybean harvest is only 3% short at 94% against last year's 97% harvest at this time of the year. This week was a short working week, due to Thankgiving Holiday and possibly by this week the harvest would move faster as farmers would like to put in the corn in storage.
On CBOT, prices gained, possible due to delayed harvest weaker dollar. Also as farmers are not selling currently, prices are reported to be higher. Dec up 1.58% to $156.36 per MT; Mar up 1.37% to $162.74 per MT; May contract up 1.68% to $166.92 per MT. FOB gulf is indicated at $186/190 per MT for Dec - April while FOB PNW is indicated at $210/214 per Mt for the same period. Sorghum (FOB US Gulf) was indicated at $195/197, 3.5 to 4% higher than corn. Argentinian and Brazilian corn is being offered at $175 and $188 per MT respectively on FOB basis.
DDGS prices were stable at $166/170 per MT (FOB US gulf), but with container prices moving up, delivered prices to the region may be moving up.
Food inflation in India is inching up day by day. Reports show almost 100% increase in retail prices of some of the staple food products, specially pulses (Dal), which provides protein to the Indian population. India is the largest consumer of sugar and its low production has created a shortage and retail prices are up to Rs.38 - 40 per Kg. Last year Sugar was selling at Rs.18 per kg in the retail market. With overall deficit in grain production and demand increasing, would Rabi be able to cover the loss in Khariff, possibly not, but there is hope.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com
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