Increased availability keep coarse grain prices stable
On pan India average prices have gone up slightly by 1.8% to Rs.9300 ($200) per MT and remain higher than last year by 11%. Prices in Gujarat, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh have come down by 3.9%, (Rs.9783/$210), 1.3% (Rs.8565/$184) and 0.29% (Rs.10064/$216) respectively, while prices have moved up in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Tamil nadu by 0.20% (Rs.8656/$186), 2.8% (Rs.8637/$185), 0.76% (Rs.9688/$208) and 0.8% (Rs.8800/$189) respectively. There is also anticipation of a good crop in Rabi, which may not cover the losses in Khariff crop, but will increase availability and pressure prices for some time though.
International cues and good domestic availability has put pressure on maize prices in the futures market. Feb down 1.4% (Rs.8750/$188); Mar down 1.1% (Rs.8930/$192); Apr down 0.76% (Rs.9100/$195) and May down 1% (Rs.9250/$198). In the spot markets, prices were down in Nizamabad by 0.16% (Rs.8889/$190) and Davangere by 1.5% (Rs.8986/$193), but up in Karimnagar by 0.32% (Rs.8786/$189).
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have been stable at Rs.9620 ($206) per MT, and are up against last year by 15.8%. Against maize the prices are up by 3.3%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices have slid lower this week again by 2.1% to Rs.10685 ($229) per MT, but have remained higher than last year by 12.9%. Prices are higher than maize by 12.9%.
Barley prices on pan India average are up by 5.9% to Rs.10015 ($215) per MT and are higher than last year by 13%. . Prices are also up in the futures slightly by 0.8% for Apr (Rs.9620/$206) and 0.14% for May (Rs.9800/$211) and down for June by 1.5% to Rs.9850 ($212) per MT. In the spot market though the prices are stable at Rs.9290 ($199) per MT.
On the CBOT, corn prices are down for Mar contract by 2.46% to $136.68 per MT, only due to large stocks in US and good corn crop anticipated from Argentina and Brazil. May contract was up slightly by 0.26% to $144.87 and July down by 1.86% to $148.81 per MT. Prices on FOB basis (US Gulf and PNW) were indicated at $165/166 and $187/190 per MT respectively for Feb/may period. Sorghum prices on US Gulf basis were indicated to be higher than corn at $169/174 per MT.
Due to positive ethanol margins and increased availability, DDGS prices are under pressure in the domestic market and demand is increasing in domestic as well as export markets. Prices were indicated at $159/166 for Feb/May period on Fob basis (US Gulf) and CNF to China was indicative at $237 per MT for a 37% pro-fat DDGS.
Freight markets were down as Chinese buying is slow as the date for Chinese New Year approaches. Gulf-Japan benchmark was indicated at $63 per MT, while PNW-Japan was down to $37 per MT. Argentina/Brazil - China freight was indicated at $47/50 per MT, down by $3-4 per MT.
Milk prices will pressure inflation, increased availability can help
Food inflation is again up to 17.56% for the week ending Jan 23, 2010. Most of the co-operatives in India specially in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka have increased the milk prices in retail claiming increased prices of feed and ingredients. The increased milk prices in Feb will put pressure on food inflation and unless milk production can be increased and milk availability in the market be increased, prices are not going to come down.
While new germplasm has been introduced in India increased production will only be available 3 years from now, however to enhance milk availability immediately, farmers can use a Calf Milk Replacer (CMR), which will cost less (atleast 10% lower than the sale price of milk) and free milk for the farmer to sell/pour in the dairy. In the first 4 weeks, a calf can consume about 90 - 120 liters of milk, depending on its size. It is a sizable amount of milk in one year based on the large number of livestock India has and calves born. Considering 24 million females calves, consuming 100 liter of milk, it would be 2400 million liters (2.4 MMT) of more milk available for human consumption.
Amit Sachdev,
India Representative,
U S Grains Council.
E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com
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