Maize prices in India slipped close to MSP levels at the market yard, down 4.7% to Rs.8600 per MT. Prices are close to last year’s level at this time of the year. Reasons attributed are slow exports, increased availability and Rabi arrivals., that have put pressure on the corn crop. Arrivals in Bihar have started and prices are close to Rs.9300 – 9500 per MT and are expected to go down in the next 15-20 days and the arrivals increase. Prices in other states have also gone down including Andhra Pradesh, do2n 2.1% to Rs.8375 per MT; Karnataka down 0.7% to Rs.8407 per MT; Tamil Nadu down 0.17% to Rs.8570 per MT and Uttar Pradesh down 1.35% to Rs.9750 per MT. Prices have remained stable in Gujarat at about Rs.9500 per MT, Maharashtra at Rs.8500 per MT, but reported to be up in Rajasthan by 4.8% to Rs.10050 per MT. There is a good quantum of white maize also available in the market, priced at Rs.10,000 per MT.
In the futures market the price of maize for the two close contracts was lower that last week’s close. April down 0.17% to Rs.880p per MT and May down 0.27% to Rs.8975 per MT. June contract was up by 0.43% to Rs.9230 per MT, while July contact remained stable at Rs.9350 per MT. In the spot markets, the prices were down only in Karimnagar by 0.13% to Rs.8700 per MT, but were reported to be up in Nizamabad by0.6% to Rs.8461 per MT and Davangere by 0.20 to 9038 per MT.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were down 6.1% to Rs.9235 per MT, but remained higher than last year by 4.3%. Prices were also higher than last year. Prices in Gujarat have touched Rs.10,730 per Mt, while in Rajatshan and Uttar Pradesh are Rs.9760 per Mt and Rs.8610 per MT respectively.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices have also moved up by 3.6% to Rs.11234 per MT and are higher than last year by 21.4%. Prices are also higher than maize by 23.4%. Prices in Maharashtra are close to Rs.12,500 per MT, while in Rajasthan are Rs.11180 per MT and Karnataka Rs.9860 per MT. While Jowar/Sorghum for food is available at Rs.16000 per MT at the market yard.
Barley prices have also increased by 4.4% to Rs.8593 per MT and prices are reported to be 5% higher than last year. On the futures market as well the spot market, prices moved up. Apr up 2.7% to Rs.9538 per MT; May up 1.80% to Rs9620 per MT; Jun up 6.77% to Rs.9836 per MT; July up 3.7% to Rs.10030 per MT. Aug and Sept contracts were indicated at Rs.10170 and Rs.10164 per MT respectively. Prices in US for feed barley (FOB US gulf) were indicated at $210 for April and $200 per MT for Jun.
US markets this week were down, showing that there is enough corn in the market. May delivery down 4.75% to $140.38 per MT’ Jul down 4.51% tp $144.87 per MT and Sept down 4.41% to $148.25 per MT. FOB gulf prices were down correspondingly and indicated at %160-166 per MT for April – July period. FOB PNW for the same period was indicated at $183-187 per MT.
DDGS prices on FOB basis have move up slightly as there are reports that some plants have closed for maintenance, but the demand remains higher domestically and farmers are trying to increase the use of DDGS in all rations in the US. Export demand is also strong. Prices were indicated at $ 149 for Apr; $144 for May and $142 for Jun delivery. On CNF basis SEA region, prices to Vierman were $252 – 256 per MT and for China $240-244 per MT for May – June period.
The freight markets were down this week and as per reports, Gulf-Japan benchmark was indicated at $69 per MT while PNW-Japan benchmark was indicated at $41 per MT.
As per the latest USDA report (Mar 10,2 010), world corn production for 2009/10 is raised 5.9 million tons to 803.69 MMT and ending stocks up to 140.15 MMT. The major reasons for increase are higher corn production in Argentina and South Africa, where the production is estimated at 21 MMT and 13.5 MMT respectively by USDA.
Harvested area and yield are raised for both countries as abundant soil moisture and lack of stressful heat during the past month supported crops through critical stages of development.
Table : World and selected countries corn production in 2010
| Country | Production | Usage | Exports | Ending stocks |
| World | 803.69 MMT | | | 140.15 MMT |
| USA | 333.53 MMT | 282.33 MMT | 48.26 MMT | 45.70 MMT |
| China | 155.00 MMT | 159 MMT (Feed use 116 MMT) | 0.5 MMT | 48.77 MMT |
| Argentina | USDA 21.0 Govt 20.50 | 7.10 MMT | 12.0 MMT (up from 9.5 MMT est, in Feb 2010) | 2.54 MMT |
| Brazil | USDA 51.0 MMT | 45.5 MMT | 8.0 MMT (down from 9 MMT est in Feb 2010) | 11.28 MMT |
| South Africa | USDA 13.50 MMT Govt. 12.961 | 10.40 MMT | 2.5 MMT (up from 1.5 MMT estimated in 1.5 MMT) | 4.31 MMT |
| Source: USDA Reports and other press reports | ||||
While Argentina may have produced a record corn crop, a strike called by the unions has halted loading of ships from Argentina. This year the workers are demanding a higher wage and last year it was the farmers, who are demanding removal of export tax.
Reports indicate that the corn yields are very good in Brazil, but the prices are much lower. The support price is set at BRL 13.98 per sack of 60 kg (equivalent to Rs.5941 per MT). Current prices are BRL 9 per sack of 60 kg (equivalent to Rs.3825 per MT). Several press reports indicate that farmers in Brazil may skip corn product next year and shift to Soya.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
Email: usgcindia@gmail.com
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