Maize prices are down by about 2.1% this week to Rs.9070 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 8.7%. A spike in the price was seen in the last week, which could be due to speculation on monsoon front and farmers holding stocks. As the arrivals increased, the prices have come down and GOI/IMD has also indicated a normal monsoon to 98%, which could have added to the decline in prices. Overall the prices in the state market yards moved lower. Andhra Pradesh down by 1.2% to Rs. 8587 per MT; Gujarat down 1% to Rs.9814 per MT; Karnataka stable at Rs.8200-8400 per MT range; Tamil Nadu down by 1.5% to Rs.8600 per MT; Maharashtra down by 0.5% to Rs.8700 per MT; Uttar Pradesh down by 0.25% to Rs.9650 per MT. It was only in Rajasthan that the prices moved up by 0.87% to Rs.9608 per MT.
In the future as well as the spot market, maize prices declined. May down 1.41% to Rs.8895 per MT; June down 1.36% to Rs.9055 per MT; July down by 0.96% to Rs.9270 per MT and Aug down by 1.77% to Rs.9430 per MT. In the spot markets, Nizamabad down by 0.5% to Rs.8893 per MT; Karimnagar down by 0.78% to Rs.9090 per MT and Davangere down by 1% to Rs.9113 per MT.
Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices down by 2.5% to Rs.9544 per MT, but have remained higher than last year by 5.6%. On an average pan India basis, pearl millet prices are higher than maize by 5%. Prices in Uttar Pradesh were reported lowest at Rs.8200. Deliveres are good in almost al the major markets and specially in North India the dairy feed manufacturers are using about 10% Pearl Millet in their rations along with maize.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices were down by 4.5% to Rs.11699 per MT, but were higher than last year by 16.3%. Against maize prices are higher by 22.5%. Deliveries were reported to be good in Maharashtra and have brought down the average price to Rs.10420 per MT.
Barley prices moved up by 4.9% to Rs.8881 per MT. Prices were higher than last year by 11.6%. Deliveries are slow which is keeping the prices somewhat higher. North India is reeling under intense heat and is likely to effect the production of grain in North India, specially wheat and other grains as there are areas that are still to be harvested.
In the future as well at the spot market, prices have moved up. May up 3.9% to Rs.10730 per MT; Jun up 4.5% to Rs.10930 per MT; Jul up 4.94% to Rs.11040 per MT; Aug up 5.47% to Rs.11180 per MT and Sept up 4.53% to Rs.11300 per Mt. Prices in Jaipur were down by 4.23% to Rs.10173 per MT.
In the US, corn prices on CBOT declined this week. may down 2.22% to $138.96 per MT; July down 2.85% to $142.11 per MT and Sept down 3.04% to $145.42 per MT. The lower prices are due to traders going out of the market. Reports are that the cash market is firm and the farmers are not selling the stocks and are busy planting corn. As per a conservative estimate almost 50% planting could be complete in US my May 01, 2010. All this also suggests a good crop in 2010/11, which will pressure the prices.
The decrease in CBOT prices is reflected in a the FOB values as well, which are indicated at $163-166 per MT for US Gulf and $184-189 per MT for US PNW.
There are also reports that China will be releasing 1.3 MMT of stocks in the open market to bring down the prices. China is becoming a large importer of DDGS from US, which is increasing the price of DDGS in US. In addition ethanol plants under maintenance is adding to the price increase. DDGS FOB values are indicated at $171 for Apr, $165 for May and $160 for Jun. CNF SEA are indicated at $254-260 per MT while CNF China is indicated at $247-253 per MT.
Bulk freights are lower than containers freights at this time, which in times to come will also put pressure on the containers, which may decline to come to level at the bulk freight rates.
Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com
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