Coarse cereals prices slide lower on better availability

Coarse cereals prices slide lower on better availability

Maize prices slid by 2.1% at the market yard this week and averaged Rs.9138 ($ 198) per MT. The prices though are higher than last year by 9.9%. The average prices some states were down including Andhra Pradesh by 0.75% to Rs.8635 ($187) per MT; Gujarat by 1.2% to Rs.10185 ($221) per MT; Maharashtra by 2.5% to Rs.8400 ($ 182) and Rajasthan by 10.6% to Rs.9620 ($208) per MT. Prices were reported to be up in Karnataka by 3% to Rs.8676 ($188) per MT; Tamil nadu by 1.4% to Rs.8730 ($189) per MT and Uttar Pradesh by 1.6% to Rs.10085 ($219) per MT. The average price of maize for Jan 2010 was Rs.9278 ($201) per MT, 16.34% higher than Jan 2009, but 1% lower than Dec 2009 prices at the market yard.

In the futures market as well, prices fell by mire that 4% for some contracts. Feb contract down by 3.84% to Rs.8875 ($192) per MT; Mar down 3.9% to Rs.9030 ($196) per MT; Apr down 4.46% to Rs.9170 ($199) per MT and May down 3.3% to Rs.9350 ($203) per MT. In the spot markets as well, prices have stumbled, but not by the above levels. Nizamabad down 1.64% to Rs.8904 ($193) per MT, Karimnagar down 0.17% to Rs.8735 ($189) per MT. Davangere (Karnataka) was the only market, where spot market prices were up by 0.69% to Rs.9127 ($198) per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices also slid at the market yard by 4.1% reaching Rs.9609 per MT. The prices are higher than last year by 15.5%. The prices are higher than maize by 4.9%. The average price of Pearl Millet for Jan 2010 was Rs.10012 per MT, 26.9% higher than Jan 2009, but 0.76% lower than the prices in Dec 2009.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices slid by 3.8% at the Market yard reaching Rs.10916 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 10.4% and also higher than maize by 16.3%. The average prices of Sorghum in Jan 2010 was Rs.11237 per MT, 20.32% higher than the price in Jan 2009, but 10.9% lower than the price in Dec 2009.

All coarse cereals prices have remained subdued in Jan 2009 as the deliveries were better in the month due to delayed harvest (Nov 2009).

Barley prices shot up by 5.4% for this week to Rs.9436 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 5.1%. The average price of Barley for Jan 2010 was Rs.9300 per MT, about 4.26% higher than Jan 2009 and also 6.32% higher than Dec 2009 prices. India produced only one crop for barley and the new crop will be arriving the markets in Mar/April.

In the futures market though Barley prices moved lower in anticipation of a good crop. Apr contract down 1.23% to 9602 per MT; May down 4% to Rs.9760 per MT and Jun down 4.76% to Rs.10000 per MT. In the spot market at Jaipur, prices were down by 0.63% to Rs.9291 per MT. In the US market, feed barley was indicated at $215 per MT FOB US Gulf.

On CBOT, corn prices were down by the end of the week, after starting at a high at the start of the week. Prices ended lower for all near contracts, Mar down 2.36% to $140.14 per MT; May down 2.14% to $144.47 per MT and Jul down 2.07% to $148.81 per MT. Prices FOB US Gulf were indicated at $169 for Feb; $165 for Mar; $166 for April and $167 for May 2010. FOB PNW prices were indicated at $189 – 192 per Mt for the same period.

DDGS prices have remained almost same as last week in the US. FOB Guld prices are indicative at $155 per Mt for Feb, while $149 per Mt for Mar 2010. CNF prices to SEA region (Vietnam) were indicated at $236 per MT.

Freight rates are down slightly, mainly due to reports that the credit squeeze will be announced in China soon. US Gulf-Japan was down to $68.50 per MT, while PNW-Japan was down to $38 per MT.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council. Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Maize prices remain more or less stable in India and dip in the world market

Maize prices remain more or less stable in India and dip in the world market

Maize prices in the market yard was down by 0.8% to Rs.9336 per MT. This is the pan India average value, and prices are higher in some state markets ad lower in some. But overall the prices are higher than last year by 13.2%. Prices in in some states moved up against last week, including Andhra Pradesh by 2% to Rs.8570 per MT; Gujarat by 0.73% to Rs.10290; Maharashtra by 1.4% to Rs.8620; Rajasthan by 7.6% to Rs.10760; Tamil Nadu by 0.93% to Rs.8610 per MT and Uttar Pradesh by 5.21% to Rs.9925 per MT. It was only in Karnataka that the prices slid lower by 2.2% to Rs.8400 per MT. One of the reason for lower overall average is the lower minimum prices at the market yards, due to some quality issues. The high prices in the market yards are much higher.

In the future markets though the prices moved a tad lower against last weeks. Feb Rs.9230, down 1%; Mar Rs.9400, down 0.84%; Apr Rs.9599, down 0.63%. Prices for May was up by 1.55% to 9820 per MT, anticipating a supply demand gap during the period and with no new crop being available after April/May 2010. If all goes well, the Rabi harvest will be starting by Feb end/March and mat be little early in some states, which is likely to stabilize the prices for the time being. In the SPOT markets, prices moved lower in all the markets. Nizamabad Rs.9053, down 1.2%; Karimnagar Rs.8750, down 0.56% and Davangere Rs.9064, down 0.92%.

Pearl Millet prices also moved lower by 2.3% at Rs.10025 per MT, prices are higher than last year by 24.2% and 6.9% against maize.

Sorghum prices moved up in the key states by 3.7% to RTs.11348 per MT and also was higher than last year by 17%. Prices were higher than maize, the key energy ingredient for feed and starch by 17.7%, making it impossible to use the product in the two sectors. Sorghum may still be used in poultry and cattle feed to some extent is some states, where the prices are comparable, but again a complete replacement with maize may not be possible.

Barley prices moved lower at the market yard by 7.8% to Rs.8972 and were also down by 4.5% against last year.

In the futures market (NCDEX), prices are lower for Apr by 5.7% to Rs.9722 per MT and for May by 4.46% to Rs.10020 per MT. For Jun contract, the prices are 10500 per MT. In the spot market (Jaipur), prices were down by 1.64% to Rs.9350 per MT.

On CBOT, corn was down for the three contracts. Mar down 1.25% to $143.53 per MT; May down 1.93% to $147.63 per MT and July down 1.37% to $151.96 per MT. Reasons being attributed to the prices moving lower are anticipation of a higher corn crop for 2010 and a proposal from Obama Administration’s, that is likely to bar commercial banks from investing in hedge funds may have had an impact on the commodity prices now and in future as well. FOB value of corn for Gulf is down to $172 per MT for Feb and $169 for Mar/Apr 2010. FOB PNW prices are indicated at $192/195 per MT for Jan-Apr period. Sorghum price (FOB US Gulf) is indicated a little higher than corn at $175-177 per MT for Mar/Apr delivery.

DDGS prices for Feb-Apr on FOB basis (US Gulf) have been indicated lower than last week, Feb $155 per MT; Mar $149 per MT and Apr $146 per MT as there is good supply. CNF value (SEA/Thailand) is indicated at $237 per MT. The demand for DDGS is high in China as the feed manufacturers and livestock owners see a value in feeding the protein/energy product. It is a good alternate to other protein meals, whose prices are much higher. Corn Gluten Meal (FOB US Gulf) is indicated at $660 per MT.

The freight rates slid lower slightly by about $1.50 per MT this week. Gulf-Japan down to $68.50 per MT and PNW-Japan benchmark was down to $39 per MT. Freight from Argentina/Brazil to China was indicated at $51/54 per MT.

Amit Sachdev

India Representative

U S Grains Council

Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Maize prices remain down and may remain so in the short term

Maize prices remain down and may remain so in the short term

Maize prices moved up slightly at the market yard by about 2% to Rs.9400 ($205) per MT on an average which may not be a correct picture as prices in major markets were down. Prices are higher than last year by 15%. While prices in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra were stable as last week and close to MSP levels, prices in Karnataka moved up by 2.55% to Rs.8610 ($188) per MT. In other regions, prices moved down, Rajasthan down 6% to Rs.9992 ($219) per MT; Tamil Nandu down 1.1% to Rs.8530 ($187) per MT and Uttar Pradesh down 7.4% to Rs.9433 9$206) per MT. There are quality concerns and that could be one reason for prices to at this level. Reports also indicate that at some locations, lower quality maize is being sold at prices lower than MSP and hence this disparity in prices. Endusers, specially poultry feed manufacturers and integrators ready to pay for quality, expect to pay a higher price.

Futures market reflect the higher corn availability over the next few months and hence the prices are down. Jan down 1.6% to Rs.9150 ($200) per MT; Feb down 1.63% to Rs.9320 ($204) per MT; Mar down 2.46% to Rs.9480 ($207) per MT; Apr down 2.8% to Rs.9660 ($211) per MT. May contract was close to Rs.9670 ($211) per MT. In the spot market prices in Davangere were up by 2.79% to Rs.9149 ($200) per MT and at othet spot markets prices moved lower or remained stable. Nizamabad stable at Rs.9163 ($200) per MT and Karimnagar down by 3.87% to Rs.8800 ($192) per MT and Davangere up by 2.79% at Rs.9149 ($200) per MT.

Pearl Millet prices moved up by 1% to Rs.10257 per MT at the market yard, about 21% higher than last year at the same time. Prices are about 8.3% higher than maize.

Sorghum prices are down by 6.8% to Rs.10942 per Mt, reflection good availability. Prices are higher than last year though by about 15% and against maize by 14%.

Barley prices moved up by 7.6% at the market yard and are higher than last year by 7.7%. On the futures market (NCDEX), prices were up by 1-1.5%. April up 1% to Rs.10310 per MT; May up 1.4% to 10488 per MT. In the spot market (Jaipur) prices are higher by 0.5% to Rs.9500 per MT.

Food inflation for the first week of Jan 2010 may be down to 17.28%, which may be a good sign, but overall inflation for Dec was up to 7.31%. Inflation rate for Nov 2009 was only 4.78%. The food inflation is expected to be down in the next few months as the new crop (Rabi) is expected, but as per report, wheat area is don and so in the Rapeseed/Mustard area, which would be reflected in the production and prices. Overall area under coarse cereals and oilseeds is down and is up slightly for pulses.

In the US market, prices are down substantially, showing an over supply situation. The three contracts the prices were down by close to 12%. mar down by 12% to $145.35 per MT; May down 11% to $150 per MT and Jul down 11.16% to $154.08 per MT. The drop in prices is reflected in the FOB values as well. FOB US Gulf was indicated at $175 per MT for Feb and $173 for Mar, down almost $19 per MT against last week. FOB PNW was indicated at $195 for Jan/Feb and $198 for Apr, against down by +$20 per MT.

Sorghum prices also moved lower with corn and FOB US Gulf was indicated at $180/182 per MT for Feb/Apr.

DDGS prices (FOB basis) US Gulf was inducated at $166 per MT for Feb and $155 per MT for Mar. CNF prices (SEA region - Vietnam) are indicated at $246 per MT. The prices are little higher due to the higher freight at container costs in US.

Freight markets were down down slightly across the board. Gulf-japan benchmark prices were down by $2 per MT to $70 per MT and PNW-Japan was also down by $2 per Mt to $40 per MT.

Amit Sachdev,

India Representative,

U S Grains Council

Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse grain prices down in India- could be a passing phase

Coarse grain prices down in India- could be a passing phase

Coarse grain prices moved lower as the deliveries to the market improved to some extent. Maize prices were reported to be down by about 1% to Rs.9230 ($202) per MT on an average at the market yard. The prices though are higher than last year by 17.8% at this time of the year (First week of Jan). Prices in Andhra and Tamil nadu were reported to be down by 1% and 2% to Rs.8500 ($186) and Rs. 8630 ($189) per MTrespectively. Prices in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh however moved up by 0.5%, 7.2% and 4.5% to Rs.10150 per MT, RS.10628 ($234) per MT and Rs.10193 ($224) per MT respectively. Prices in Karnataka and Maharashtra remained stable close to Rs.8400 ($184) and Rs.8500 ($186) per MT.

Endusers in West Bengal have purchased maize at prices close to Rs.11300 ($248) per MT, while in Gujarat last week the delivered values were close to Rs.10200 ($224) per MT. There are some press reports indicating that some export consignments have been rejected at the ports due to quality concerns by the buyer’s agents and this maize would eventually find way into the poultry / starch / dairy feed sector.

In the futures market, prices moved lower for all the contracts by about 0.1 – 1%. Jan down to Rs.9300 ($204) per Mt; Feb down 1% to Rs.9475 ($208) per MT; Mar down 0.3% to RS.9720 ($214) per MT and Apr down 0.1% to Rs.9940 ($218) per MT. In the spot markets as well prices were reported to be down. Nizamabad and Karimnagar stable at Rs.9160 ($201) and Rs.9155 ($201) per MT, while prices in Davangere slumped by 2.64% to Rs.8900 ($196) per MT. Pressure of rejection of the consignment at the ports could be one more reason to drag the pries lower as most of the stock was sourced from the corn belts of Davangere, Haveri and Ranibannur and this has also effected the future values. The lower prices could be a temporary phase and is always seen about 8 - 10 weeks after the start of the the harvest when more stocks arrive in the market. In 2008/09 the prices started to move lower in Sept (Rs.8500/$187); Oct (Rs.8223/$181); Nov (Rs.8137/$179); Dec (Rs.7815/$172), after which the prices have continued an upward trend. This year (2009/10) the lower movement of the prices was delayed due to the delayed harvest.

Sugar prices in the wholesale markets have continued their northward march, crossed Rs.44 ($0.96) per kg. In the retail market, branded sugar is already selling at Rs.48 ($1.05) per kg. With such high prices, the demand of sugar substitutes (Dextrose/Maltose) is likely to increase. Would the beverage companies demand High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS), would be a factor. Currently all the beverage companies use sugar, but with increase in prices, there just may be point to shift to HFCS.

Pearl Millet prices slumped by 2.4% to Rs.10157 ($223) per MT, but were higher than last year by 23.8%. Against maize, the prices of pearl millet are higher by 9.1%.

Sorghum prices also slumped by 4.5% to Rs.11740 ($258) per MT, but remained higher than last year by 24.5%. The prices were also higher than maize by 21.4%.

Barley prices have moved up by 6% this week to Rs.9040 ($199) per MT. Prices are higher than last year by about 7.6%. In the futures market, prices of barley have slumped, Apr down by 2.4% to Rs.10210 ($224) per MT; May down by 2.9% to Rs.10342 ($227) per MT. in the SPOT market (Jaipur), prices were down by 0.5% to Rs.9455 ($208) per MT. In the US, feed barley prices are close to $215 per MT.

On CBOT corn prices continued to climb and were up by 1.3% – 1.7% for the three contacts. Mar up 1.35% to $165.34 per MT; May up 1.37% to $169.28% and Jul up 1.75% to $173.45 per MT. Due to pressure on rail car availability, freezing of rivers, which has affected the barge movement, the FOB values have also riser sharply. FOB US Gulf was indicated at $196 for Feb, while for Mar was indicated at $192 per MT. FOB PNW was indicated at $215-217 per MT for Jan – April. Sorghum prices (FOB us Gulf) were indicated higher than corn at $200/202 per MT.

DDGS prices are under pressure due to weather concerns, non availability of containers and rail cars as well. FOB US Gulf were indicated at $174 for Feb 2010, while for Mar 2010, are indicated at $166 per MT. CNF values (Thailand) were indicated at $248 per MT. The other protein meal (Corn Gluten meal) is indicated at $655 per MT (FOB US Gulf).

The freight rates have moved up due to increased demand of freight ships for coal and other raw materials as the world economy get back to shape in the new year. Gulf – Japan rates were indicated at $72 per MT, up $4 per MT and PNW-Japan was also up by $5 per MT to $42 per MT against last week. The increased in crude prices is also one more reason for the freight rates to strengthen.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council. E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Mix of prices in the last week of the year 2009

Wishing you a Healthy, Wealthy and Wise 2010

May you make bigger and better decisions in 2010, that will help make this world a better place to live.

May your decisions reduce the carbon footprint..........., but don't forget to drink more milk, eat more corn and demand a safe product.

Mix of prices in the last week of the year 2009

Maize prices moved lower in the market by 3.5% in the last week of the year to Rs.9325 per MT. Prices remained higher than last year by 17.5%. The average prices for the month of Dec 2009 was Rs.9373 per MT, up 19.79% against last year (Dec 2008) average and 0.42% higher than Nov 2009. While the prices moved up slightly in Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat by 0.75% and 0.8% to Rs.8585 and Rs.10090 per MT respectively, prices have moved lower in Maharashtra 1.91% to RS.8533; Rajasthan 5.41% to Rs.9913; Tamil nadu 1.34% to Rs.8810; and Uttar Pradesh 4.87% to Rs.9750 per MT.

In the futures market as well, prices moved lower for Feb, Mar and April contracts by 3.5%, 4.6% and 5.9% respectively. While Feb contract ended at Rs.9570 per MT, Mar was down to Rs.9750 and Apr at Rs.9950 per MT. This being the last week of the year and long holiday in the companies. High deliveries in the market, could be one reason of the price correction. In the spot markets as well, the markets corrected and were down in Nizamabad by 1.88% to Rs.9167. In Karimnagar prices were up slightly at Rs.0.36% to Rs.9138, while in Davangere prices were stable at Rs.9142 per MT.

Pearl Millet prices moved up by 5.1% this week to Rs.10402, higher by 25.6% against last year. Prices were also higher than maize by 10.4%. The average price for the month of Dec was Rs.10089, 32% higher than Dec 2008 average and 2.6% lower than Nov 2009.

Sorghum prices corrected and were down by 10.2% to Rs.12299 per MT at the market yard. Prices were higher than last year by 17.7%. Prices were higher than maize by 24.2%. The average price for Dec 2009 was Rs.12611 per MT, 39.56% higher than Dec 2008, but 4.31% lower than Nov 2009 average.

Barley prices moved lower than last week by 8.4% to Rs.8528 per MT, 7.2% lower than last year. The average for the month was Rs.8747 per MT, 1.4% lower than Dec 2008 and 8.68% lower than Nov 2009.

In the futures market, prices were up by 1.16% for Apr to Rs.10460 per MT and up by 1.93% for May contract to 10650 per MT. In the Jaipur market, prices were up by 0.88% to Rs.9500 per MT.

This week was again a short week, but prices gained on CBOT from the three contracts, Mar up by 1.47% to $163.14 per MT, May up 1.33% to $166.99 per MT and Jul up by 1.12% to $170.46 per MT. Indicative FOB values for Gulf and PNW were $190 and $211 per MT.

Amit Sachdev,

India Representative,

U S Grains Council

Email: usgcindia@gmail.com