U S Grains Market Reports - India

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Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Lower maize prices - lower feed bills for farmers; good monsoon could boost grain production and lower prices

2010-04-24T22:05:00.000+05:30

Maize prices are down by about 2.1% this week to Rs.9070 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 8.7%. A spike in the price was seen in the last week, which could be due to speculation on monsoon front and farmers holding stocks. As the arrivals increased, the prices have come down and GOI/IMD has also indicated a normal monsoon to 98%, which could have added to the decline in prices. Overall the prices in the state market yards moved lower. Andhra Pradesh down by 1.2% to Rs. 8587 per MT; Gujarat down 1% to Rs.9814 per MT; Karnataka stable at Rs.8200-8400 per MT range; Tamil Nadu down by 1.5% to Rs.8600 per MT; Maharashtra down by 0.5% to Rs.8700 per MT; Uttar Pradesh down by 0.25% to Rs.9650 per MT. It was only in Rajasthan that the prices moved up by 0.87% to Rs.9608 per MT.

In the future as well as the spot market, maize prices declined. May down 1.41% to Rs.8895 per MT; June down 1.36% to Rs.9055 per MT; July down by 0.96% to Rs.9270 per MT and Aug down by 1.77% to Rs.9430 per MT. In the spot markets, Nizamabad down by 0.5% to Rs.8893 per MT; Karimnagar down by 0.78% to Rs.9090 per MT and Davangere down by 1% to Rs.9113 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices down by 2.5% to Rs.9544 per MT, but have remained higher than last year by 5.6%. On an average pan India basis, pearl millet prices are higher than maize by 5%. Prices in Uttar Pradesh were reported lowest at Rs.8200. Deliveres are good in almost al the major markets and specially in North India the dairy feed manufacturers are using about 10% Pearl Millet in their rations along with maize.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices were down by 4.5% to Rs.11699 per MT, but were higher than last year by 16.3%. Against maize prices are higher by 22.5%. Deliveries were reported to be good in Maharashtra and have brought down the average price to Rs.10420 per MT.

Barley prices moved up by 4.9% to Rs.8881 per MT. Prices were higher than last year by 11.6%. Deliveries are slow which is keeping the prices somewhat higher. North India is reeling under intense heat and is likely to effect the production of grain in North India, specially wheat and other grains as there are areas that are still to be harvested.

In the future as well at the spot market, prices have moved up. May up 3.9% to Rs.10730 per MT; Jun up 4.5% to Rs.10930 per MT; Jul up 4.94% to Rs.11040 per MT; Aug up 5.47% to Rs.11180 per MT and Sept up 4.53% to Rs.11300 per Mt. Prices in Jaipur were down by 4.23% to Rs.10173 per MT.

In the US, corn prices on CBOT declined this week. may down 2.22% to $138.96 per MT; July down 2.85% to $142.11 per MT and Sept down 3.04% to $145.42 per MT. The lower prices are due to traders going out of the market. Reports are that the cash market is firm and the farmers are not selling the stocks and are busy planting corn. As per a conservative estimate almost 50% planting could be complete in US my May 01, 2010. All this also suggests a good crop in 2010/11, which will pressure the prices.

The decrease in CBOT prices is reflected in a the FOB values as well, which are indicated at $163-166 per MT for US Gulf and $184-189 per MT for US PNW.

There are also reports that China will be releasing 1.3 MMT of stocks in the open market to bring down the prices. China is becoming a large importer of DDGS from US, which is increasing the price of DDGS in US. In addition ethanol plants under maintenance is adding to the price increase. DDGS FOB values are indicated at $171 for Apr, $165 for May and $160 for Jun. CNF SEA are indicated at $254-260 per MT while CNF China is indicated at $247-253 per MT.

Bulk freights are lower than containers freights at this time, which in times to come will also put pressure on the containers, which may decline to come to level at the bulk freight rates.

Amit Sachdev

India Representative

U S Grains Council

E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Higher corn prices in future and spot markets, Corn prices move up in US

2010-04-17T12:00:00.000+05:30

Maize prices moved up on the market yard by 4.5% to Rs.9265 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 9.2%. Farmers in Uttar Pradesh are paying Rs.11000 per MT for corn, delivered to farm. Prices in Andhra Pradesh have moved up by 3% to Rs.8695 per MT; Maharashtra by 1% to Rs.8743 per MT; and Rajasthan by 1% to Rs.9525 per MT and Uttar Pradesh by 0.78% to Rs.9675 per MT. Prices have slid lower in Tamil nadu by 2.5% to Rs.8725 per MT and have remained stable in Gujarat at Rs.9900 per MT .

In the futures market the prices moved up for the near months, Apr up 1.59% to Rs.8930 per MT; May up 1.29% to Rs.9025 per MT; Jun up 0.45% to Rs.9180 per MT and also for Aug up 0.15% to Rs.9600 per MT. Price for Jun contract was down by 0.1% to Rs.9360 per Mt. In the spot markets as well prices have moved up. Nizamabad up 2.65% to Rs.8944 per MT; Karimnagar up 0.37% to Rs.9162 per MT and Davangere up 1.78% to Rs.9200 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have come down by 6.6% at the market yard to Rs.9787 per MT and are higher than last year by 7%. Prices are higher than maize by 5.3%.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices remained stable at Rs.12250 per MT at market yards. Prices are higher than last year by 23.8% and also higher than maize by 24.4%. White sorghum for food purpose is being traded at the market yard at Rs.17000 per MT.

Barley prices a moved up by 4.5% to Rs.8460 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 4.8%. Prices in Gujarat averaged Rs.9130 per MT, while in Rajasthan were Rs.8110 per MT. Barley prices have also moved higher this week in the futures market. Apr up 5.5% to Rs.10140 per MT; May up 5.66% to RS.10328 per MT; Jun up 5.33% to Rs.10460 per MT; Jul up 5.09% to Rs.10520 per MT and Aug up 4.74% to Rs.10600 per MT. Prices in Jaipur spot market wereup by 6.08% to Rs.9760 per MT.

Intense heat is taking toll on the crops. It is exceptionally dry is north India and all over the plains. Temperatures are almost 6-8 deg C above normal. There are areas in Haryana and Punjab, where harvest of wheat has not been done and farmers/experts fear that the grain will be shriveled and the production will be effected. It is still debatable that such intense heat will be good and lead to early rains

On CBOT, corn prices have moved up, Apr up 3.55% to $142.11 per Mt; May up 3.16% to $146.29 per MT; Sept up 2.85% to $149.99 per MT. The increase in prices is reflected in the FOB values on Gulf and PNW basis, where prices are indicated at $166-170 per MT and $187-193 per MT respectively for the period April – June 2010. Sorghum prices on FOB Gulf basis moved up to $175 per MT.

DDGS prices have moved up due to increased demand from China. On FOB Gulf basis, prices for Apr moved up to $183 per MT, while for May at $166 ($10 higher than last week) and for June prices were indicated at $158 per MT ($12) higher than last week. On CNF basis the prices have moved up to $255-260 per for Vietnam and $251-256 for China. The freight market is stable, but last week also saw up and down. Chinese economy numbers (growth at 11%) could further increase the demand and thus the prices.

Amit Sachdev

India Representative

U S Grains Council

E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Lower maize prices can keep a check on inflation; Milk is a superior food, but not a luxury food

2010-04-12T10:28:00.000+05:30

Lower maize prices can keep a check on inflation

Maize prices dropped by 2.1% to Rs.8864 per MT at the market yard on average. The prices is for the loose material brought by the farmers to the market yard. The prices were higher than last year by 6.2%. Stocks arrivals in the market are keeping a check on the prices. The average prices in some states however were reported up, Andhra Pradesh up by 0.45% to Rs.8441 per MT; Gujarat up 7.2% to Rs.9916 per MT; Karnataka up 1.38%, Tamil Nadu up 1.68% to Rs.8950 per MT. However prices were reported lower in Rajasthan 3.77% to Rs.9430 per Mt and Uttar Pradesh 3.35% to Rs.9600 per MT.

In the futures market (NCDEX), the prices for Apr delivery remained stable as last week at Rs.8490 per MT, while for May and June the prices dropped to Rs.8910 and Rs.9135 per MT, down by 0.44% and 0.60% respectively. However the prices for July delivery were higher by 0.42% to Rs.9370 per MT. In the spot market the prices moved higher. Nizamabad up by 2.6% to Rs.8713 per MT, Karimnagar up by 5.6% to Rs.9128 per MT and Davangere up by 0.2% to Rs.9039 per MT.

Pearl Millet prices moved up by 11.9% to Rs.10476 per MT, remained higher than last year by 15.9% and also higher than maize by 15.4%.

Sorghum prices moved up by 2.8% to Rs.12250 per MT, higher than last year by 23.5% and higher than maize by 27.7%.

Barley prices moved down by 1.6% to Rs.8102 per MT, but were higher than last year by 1.6%. In the futures market as well prices have fallen as new stocks have started to arrive. Apr down 4.18% to Rs.9610 per MT; May down 4.5% to Rs.9774 per MT; Jun down 4.18% to Rs.9930 per MT and Jul down 1.96%to Rs.10010 per MT. The the Spot market (Jaipur) however the prices were reported yp be higher than last week by 1.16% to Rs.9220 per MT.

On CBOT there is no major change in the prices, which were report at 1.04% higher for May at $137.23 per MT, 1.18% for Jul at $141.80 per MT and 1.32% higher for Sept contract at $145.82 per MT. The FOB values for Gulf and PNW have remained stable at $157-163 per MT and %179-184 per Mt for the period Apr - Jul. Sorghum price on FOB basis (Gulf) has remained stable at $167-168 per MT for the same period.

The DDGS have suddenly spiked due to increased demand from China and other Asian destination have followed China and increased purchases. FOB Gulf value of DDGS is $166 for Apr; $156 for May and $146 for Jun. CNF value for SEA region (vietnam) is indicated at $249-254 per MT and for China at $245-250 per MT for the same period. The price of DDGS, relative to corn is lower in Southern China and this has lead to increased buying. As container prices are higher, bulk shipments have also increased and hence increased buying.

There are reports that Chinese government will release corn in the open market, which will help stem the increase in corn price in China, but the demand of DDGS is expected to remain strong in coming years. In addition US is expected to produce more DDGS when the E 15 (15% ethanol blend) is made mandatory in the US.

As the Argentine dock workers strike has come to an end and South American exports surge, the freight rates have moved up. Gulf-Japan benchmark was up $3 per Mt to $70 per MT, while PNW-Japan benchmark was up $2 to $42 per MT. Argentina/Brazil - China freight rates were reported higher at $74-76 per MT.

Milk is a superior food, but not a luxury food

The recent National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) data reveals that Indian's consume more milk and almost 15% of the monthly income on milk and milk products. And the spend increases with the increase in income. In rural India, almost 14.9% income is spent on milk and 18.3% in Urban India and in both cases it is second to cereals, which for the basic diet of Indian families.

As the demand has increased and supplies affected due to increased summer (lower production), agencies have increased the procurement price (in tune with the increased cost of production), but at the same time have increased the sale price. Nandini milk from Karnataka Milk Federation increased the prices this week, Mother dairy and AMUL had increased the prices in National Capital Region (NCR) last week.

Amit Sachdev

India Representative

U S Grains Council

Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Future prices drop in India and higher corn crop weighs on US prices

2010-04-03T13:46:00.000+05:30

Maize prices moved up in the last week of the Mar 2010 at the market yard for higher quality product. The prices were up by 5.2% to Rs.9050 per MT, and there is likely to be correction to lower prices in short term as new stocks from Bihar start to reach the market. Prices remained higher than last year by 10.2%. The average price of maize for the month of Mar 2010 was Rs.9013 per MT, 8.44% higher than Mar 2009 and about 1% lower than Feb 2010 prices.

In the states, prices were reported lower in Gujarat by 2.63% to Rs.9250 per MT; Karnataka by 1$% to 8325 per MT and Rajasthan by 2.48% to Rs.9800 per MT. Prices were however reported up in Andhra Pradesh by 0.33% to 8403 per MT; Tamil Nadu by 2.70% to Rs.8802 per Mt and Uttar Pradesh by 1.8% to Rs.9933 per MT.

In the futures as well as the spot markets prices were lower than last week. Apr delivery down 0.11%to Rs.8790 per MT; May down 0.27% to Rs.8950 per MT; Jun down 0.4% to Rs.9190 per MT and Jul down 0.21% to Rs.9330 per MT. In the spot markets, prices were stable in Nizamabad at Rs.8491 per MT and down in Karimnagar by 0.13% to Rs.8688 per MT and Davangere by 0.2% to Rs.9020 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved up by 1.4% to Rs.9362 per MT against last week. Prices were higher than last year by 6.4% and also higher than maize by 3.3%. The average price for Pearl Millet for mar 2010 was Rs.9756 per MT, 13.5% higher than Mar 2009 price, but 0.03% lower than Feb 2010 price.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices also moved up by 6.1% to Rs.11916 per MT. Prices were higher than last year by 14.7% and higher than maize by 24.1%. The average price of Sorghum for Mar 2010 was Rs.11444 per MT, 19.33% higher than Mar 2009 and 1.63% higher than Feb 2010 price.

Barley prices at the market yard moved lower by 4.2% to Rs.8231 per MT and were reported at 3.2% lower than last year in the last week of Mar. The average price of market for Mar 2010 was Rs.8509 per MT, 2.12% higher than Mar 2009 and 9.15% lower than Feb 2010 price. In the futures as well as the spot market however the prices moved up. Apr delivery up by 7.98% to Rs.10030 per MT; may up 6.4%to Rs.10236 per MT; Jun up by 5.36% to Rs.10364 per MT; Jul up 1.79% to Rs.10210; Aug up 1.27% to Rs.10300 per MT and Sept up by 2.59% to Rs.10428 per MT. In the Jaipur market price was up by 1.11% to Rs.9094 per MT.

Corn prices in US were down substantially as the planting intentions 2010 report came out. On CBOT, corn prices for May delivery was down 3.25% to $135.81 per MT; Jul down 3.26% to $140.14 per MT and Sept down 2.90% to $143.92 per MT. FOB values were reflective in the drop in prices. US Gulf indicated at $158-163 per MT and PNW $181-187 per MT for the period Apr - Jul. Sorghum prices also were reported lower at $167 per MT for the same period and higher than corn.

DDGS prices were relatively stable on FOB basis and indicated at $152 per Mt for Apr; $146 for May and $144 for Jun delivery. CNF values for Vietnam were indicated at $242-247 per MT for May - Jun and to China $238-243 per MT. The DDGS production is somewhat lower as many ethanol plants are under maintenance and the margins on ethanol are lower.

The export demand is good, and end users in Asia are looking to move to bulk shipments as per reports as the container freight rates are much higher than bulk and the difference is as higher as $30 per MT, which makes a huge difference.

USDA’s released its 2010 Prospective Plantings report last week, based on farmer survey, which suggests that U.S. corn acreage for 2010 will be 88.8 million acres, up 3 percent from both 2009 and

2008. The report also suggests that US farmers will plant 3.3 million acres of barley, down 8% from 2009. The report also suggest lower land under Sorghum by 4% to 6.4 million acres. The area under corn may also go up if the prices of inputs and output remains stable.

Amit Sachdev

India Representative

U S Grains Council

Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Mixed bag for prices in India, prices slump in US due to higher stocks

2010-03-28T11:51:00.000+05:30

Mixed bag for prices in India, prices slump in US due to higher stocks

Maize prices in India slipped close to MSP levels at the market yard, down 4.7% to Rs.8600 per MT. Prices are close to last year’s level at this time of the year. Reasons attributed are slow exports, increased availability and Rabi arrivals., that have put pressure on the corn crop. Arrivals in Bihar have started and prices are close to Rs.9300 – 9500 per MT and are expected to go down in the next 15-20 days and the arrivals increase. Prices in other states have also gone down including Andhra Pradesh, do2n 2.1% to Rs.8375 per MT; Karnataka down 0.7% to Rs.8407 per MT; Tamil Nadu down 0.17% to Rs.8570 per MT and Uttar Pradesh down 1.35% to Rs.9750 per MT. Prices have remained stable in Gujarat at about Rs.9500 per MT, Maharashtra at Rs.8500 per MT, but reported to be up in Rajasthan by 4.8% to Rs.10050 per MT. There is a good quantum of white maize also available in the market, priced at Rs.10,000 per MT.

In the futures market the price of maize for the two close contracts was lower that last week’s close. April down 0.17% to Rs.880p per MT and May down 0.27% to Rs.8975 per MT. June contract was up by 0.43% to Rs.9230 per MT, while July contact remained stable at Rs.9350 per MT. In the spot markets, the prices were down only in Karimnagar by 0.13% to Rs.8700 per MT, but were reported to be up in Nizamabad by0.6% to Rs.8461 per MT and Davangere by 0.20 to 9038 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were down 6.1% to Rs.9235 per MT, but remained higher than last year by 4.3%. Prices were also higher than last year. Prices in Gujarat have touched Rs.10,730 per Mt, while in Rajatshan and Uttar Pradesh are Rs.9760 per Mt and Rs.8610 per MT respectively.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices have also moved up by 3.6% to Rs.11234 per MT and are higher than last year by 21.4%. Prices are also higher than maize by 23.4%. Prices in Maharashtra are close to Rs.12,500 per MT, while in Rajasthan are Rs.11180 per MT and Karnataka Rs.9860 per MT. While Jowar/Sorghum for food is available at Rs.16000 per MT at the market yard.

Barley prices have also increased by 4.4% to Rs.8593 per MT and prices are reported to be 5% higher than last year. On the futures market as well the spot market, prices moved up. Apr up 2.7% to Rs.9538 per MT; May up 1.80% to Rs9620 per MT; Jun up 6.77% to Rs.9836 per MT; July up 3.7% to Rs.10030 per MT. Aug and Sept contracts were indicated at Rs.10170 and Rs.10164 per MT respectively. Prices in US for feed barley (FOB US gulf) were indicated at $210 for April and $200 per MT for Jun.

US markets this week were down, showing that there is enough corn in the market. May delivery down 4.75% to $140.38 per MT’ Jul down 4.51% tp $144.87 per MT and Sept down 4.41% to $148.25 per MT. FOB gulf prices were down correspondingly and indicated at %160-166 per MT for April – July period. FOB PNW for the same period was indicated at $183-187 per MT.

DDGS prices on FOB basis have move up slightly as there are reports that some plants have closed for maintenance, but the demand remains higher domestically and farmers are trying to increase the use of DDGS in all rations in the US. Export demand is also strong. Prices were indicated at $ 149 for Apr; $144 for May and $142 for Jun delivery. On CNF basis SEA region, prices to Vierman were $252 – 256 per MT and for China $240-244 per MT for May – June period.

The freight markets were down this week and as per reports, Gulf-Japan benchmark was indicated at $69 per MT while PNW-Japan benchmark was indicated at $41 per MT.

As per the latest USDA report (Mar 10,2 010), world corn production for 2009/10 is raised 5.9 million tons to 803.69 MMT and ending stocks up to 140.15 MMT. The major reasons for increase are higher corn production in Argentina and South Africa, where the production is estimated at 21 MMT and 13.5 MMT respectively by USDA.

Harvested area and yield are raised for both countries as abundant soil moisture and lack of stressful heat during the past month supported crops through critical stages of development.

Table : World and selected countries corn production in 2010

Country	Production	Usage	Exports	Ending stocks
World	803.69 MMT			140.15 MMT
USA	333.53 MMT	282.33 MMT	48.26 MMT	45.70 MMT
China	155.00 MMT	159 MMT (Feed use 116 MMT)	0.5 MMT	48.77 MMT
Argentina	USDA 21.0 Govt 20.50	7.10 MMT	12.0 MMT (up from 9.5 MMT est, in Feb 2010)	2.54 MMT
Brazil	USDA 51.0 MMT	45.5 MMT	8.0 MMT (down from 9 MMT est in Feb 2010)	11.28 MMT
South Africa	USDA 13.50 MMT Govt. 12.961	10.40 MMT	2.5 MMT (up from 1.5 MMT estimated in 1.5 MMT)	4.31 MMT
Source: USDA Reports and other press reports

While Argentina may have produced a record corn crop, a strike called by the unions has halted loading of ships from Argentina. This year the workers are demanding a higher wage and last year it was the farmers, who are demanding removal of export tax.

Reports indicate that the corn yields are very good in Brazil, but the prices are much lower. The support price is set at BRL 13.98 per sack of 60 kg (equivalent to Rs.5941 per MT). Current prices are BRL 9 per sack of 60 kg (equivalent to Rs.3825 per MT). Several press reports indicate that farmers in Brazil may skip corn product next year and shift to Soya.

Amit Sachdev

India Representative

U S Grains Council

Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse grain prices move lower- good buy for end users

2010-03-21T21:05:00.000+05:30

Coarse grain prices move lower- good buy for end users

Maize prices were reported lower than last week by 2.1% to Rs.9030 per MT. the prices were 7.9% higher than last year at this time of the year. There were areas where prices wee higher than last week, Andhra Pradesh up 0.48% at RS.8560 per MT; Karnataka 1.87% to Rs.8470 per MT; Tamil nadu 1.19% to Rs.8585 per MT and Uttar Pradesh 0.54% to Rs.9884 per MT. Prices in Gujarat and Rajasthan were reported to be lower than last week by 5.11% and 1.78% to Rs.9498 and Rs.9587 per MT respectively.

Food inflation for the week ending Mar 06, 2010 has also eased to 16.3% which is good news for the end users and consumers.

On NCDEX the prices were also down for the four contracts, April down 1.5% to Rs.8815 per MT; May down 0.77% to Rs.9000 per MT; Jun down 0.1% to 9190 per MT and Jul 1.52% to Rs.9350 per MT. In the spot market though prices in Karimnagar and Davangere were up by 0.84% and 1.13% to Rs.8712 per MT and Rs.9020 per MT respectively. Prices in Nizamabad were down by 1.13% to Rs.8438 per MT.

Prices in some areas of Karnataka have been reported lower than Minimum Support Price, GOI data also reveals 260,000 MT of maize stocks (in Karnataka), about 77000 MT of Sorghum and about 580 MT of Bajra which will be put on e-auction on the same lines as wheat.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were down by 2.6% to Rs.9835 per MT and 13.6% higher than last year. Prices were higher than maize by 8.2%. Bajra prices in Rajasthan averaged Rs.9400 per MT, Gujarat Rs.10660 per MT; Rs.8660 in Haryana and Rs.8400 per MT in Uttar Pradesh.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices were down by 11.1% this week to Rs.10840 per MT and higher than last year by 13.6%. Prices are higher than maize by 16.7%. Average prices in Andhra Pradesh were reported at Rs.10500 per MT, Karnataka Rs.9800 per MT., Rajasthan Rs.9000 per MT and Rs.9380 in Uttar Pradesh.

Barley prices were down by 8.4% to Rs.8230 per MT, but remained 6.6% higher than last year. In the futures market (NCDEX), prices for the two contracts April and May were up by 2.54% and 1.76% to Rs.9280 and Rs.9450 per MT respectively. Prices for all other contracts were stable. In the Jaipur spot market the prices were down by 0.21% to Rs.8981 per MT.

On CBOT, prices for the two contacts May and July were reported higher by 2.80 and 2.66% to $147.39 and $151.72%. For Sept contract as well prices were reported at $155.10 per MT. The FOB prices in Gulf were indicated at $167 - 172 per MT for Apr - Jun and for PNW for indicated at $191-195 per MT for Apr - Jun, reflecting on the higher CBOT values. Sorghum prices on FOB basis (US Gulf) were indicated at $177-179 per MT, about 4-6% higher than corn.

DDGS prices on FOB basis were higher than last week slightly at $143 for Mar, $140 for Apr and $138 for May. CNF prices to the SEA region to Vietnam were indicated at $235 per MT for April and $240 for May. Prices to China were indicated at $240 for Apr and $244 for may delivery. Report are that some of the ethanol plants are on maintenance and hence the prices may be better.

Freight rates are reported to be higher again this week, due to Chinese buying also also due to the South American grain harvest. Gulf-Japan benchmark was indicated at $71 (+$1) while PNW-Japan benchmark was indicated at $43 per MT. (no change). Argentina/Brazil to China was indicated at $70 - 74 per MT.

Amit Sachdev

India Representative

U S Grains Council

E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Market is undecided, spot prices remain good for end users

2010-03-13T14:08:00.001+05:30

Market is undecided, spot prices remain good for end users

Maize prices were up slightly by 0.7% this week to Rs.9223 per MT. The prices were higher than last year by 12.7%. Prices at some of the major production centers was down this week slightly. Andhra Pradesh down by 0.16% to Rs.8520 per MT; Karnataka down by 1.70% to Rs.8315 per MT; Rajasthan down by 0.22% to Rs.9761 per MT and Tamil Nadu down by 1.63% to Rs.8484 per Mt. Reports also indicate that maize stocks have been purchased by Karnataka Govt as well as the prices went below MSP in some areas. At some other locations, prices were also up like in Gujarat 0.49% to Rs.10010 per MT; Maharahstra up by 0.15% to Rs.8490 per MT and Uttar Pradesh by 1.60% to Rs.9830 per MT. Reason for prices coming down in some areas is attributed to a good arrivals as the stocks are coming in anticipating a good Rabi crop in these regions.

In the futures market prices were also reported to be up. March delivery up 1.62% to Rs.8770 per MT, April delivery up 2.05% to Rs.8950 per MT; May up 1.34% to Rs.9070 per MT and Jun delivery stable at Rs.9200 per MT. July delivery as indicated at Rs.9495 per MT on NCDEX. In the spot market however the prices were reported to be down. Nizamabad and Karimnagar, bith in Andhra Pradesh, down by 0.7 and 1.47% to Rs.8535 and Rs.8639 per MT respectively. Prices in Davangere were indicated 0.65% higher than last week to Rs.8919 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices dipped by 1.4% to Rs.10010 per MT, but were reported higher than last year by 15.3%. Prices were higher than maize by 8.7%.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices were reported higher than last week by 10.4% to Rs.12189 per MT, about 29.8% higher than last year and 24.3% higher than maize. The average price for Sorghum in Maharashtra was reported at 10064 per MT wherein the food grade sorghum was available in the range of Rs.15000 – 17000 per MT. Price of Sorghum in Andhra Pradesh was reported at Rs.10000 per MT, wherein good quality sorghum was trading at Rs.12000- 14000 per MT. In Karnataka the average price was Rs.9167 per MT.

Barley prices were up by 5.7% at the market yard to Rs.8990 per MT. Prices were higher than last year by 2.3%, In the futures market, while prices in April showed a slight decline of 0.11% to Rs.9050 per MT., Prices in May were indicated 1.11% higher at Rs.9286 per MT. June prices were indicated 5.09% lower than last week at Rs.9212 per MT. Indicative prices for July and August were Rs.9672 and Rs.9798 per MT respectively. In the spot market (Jaipur) prices were down by 0.22% to Rs.9000 per MT.

Corn prices slipped on CBOT for the three contracts. Mar down 2.9% to $139.36 per MT; May down by 2.98% to $143.37 per MT; Jul down by 2.84% to $143.78 per MT. The decrease was reflected in FOB prices as well, which were indicated at $163-167 for US Gulf for April/June and $187-191 per MT for PNW for Mar-June period. Sorghum price also indicated to be lower on FOB basis to $1172/174 per MT (US Gulf) for Mar-Jun period.

DDGS prices in the domestic market were reported much lower than last week at $142 per Mar and $138 for both April and May as the capacities are increasing. Anticipated production of DDGS could be 28-30 MMT in 2010, which is likely to put pressure on local prices. Prices on CNF basis to SEA region have however remain unchanged. Price of China was reported at $235 per MT while to Vietnam was $243 per MT.

The freight markets are substantially up across the board, with Gulf-Japan benchmark at $70 per MT. PNW-Japan was stable at $43 per MT. Freight rates for Argentina/Brazil to China are up again this week to $70-74 per MT.

Amit Sachdev

India Consultant

U S Grains Council

E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Prices gel well for the end users on increased availability; What's in the budget for the processing sector

2010-03-06T10:44:00.000+05:30

Prices gel well for the end users on increased availability

Maize prices moved up slightly (1.8%) on Pan India basis to Rs.9158 per MT. Prices remained higher than last year by 9.4%. There are many areas where prices moved lower than last week, including Andhra Pradesh down 0.36% to Rs.8530 per MT; Gujarat down 1.13% to Rs.9960 per MT, Tamil Nadu down 0.5% to Rs.8635 per MT. Prices in some locations were up, including Karnataka 0.69% to Rs.8490 per MT, Maharashtra up by 4% to Rs.8480 per MT, Rajasthan up by 1% to Rs.9780 per MT and Uttar Pradesh up by 1.6% to Rs.9675 per MT. Reports from Bihar indicate some contracts at Rs.9400 per MT for April/May delivery.

In the futures market the prices have slumped and are ranging between Rs.8600 - 9200 per MT. Mar down 0.46% to Rs.8630 per MT, Apr down 1.24% to Rs.8770 per MT; May down 0.3% to Rs.8950 per MT and Jun down 0.6% to Rs.9195 per MT. In the spot markets though the prices have moved up. Nizamabad up 0.3% to Rs.8595 per MT; Karimnagar up 0.37% to Rs.8770 per MT and Davangere up 0.70% to Rs.8861 per MT.

Prices of Pearl Millet (Bajra), moved up by 6.8% on pan india basis. Average prices were higher than last year by 17.4%. Prices were higher than maize by 10.6%. Prices in Uttar Pradesh were Rs.8715 per MT, while in Gujarat were Rs.10660. There are areas within the state where Pearl Millet is available at Rs.8250 - 8400 per MT, but quantities are limited. While it does make sense to use some Bajra (Pearl Millet) in poultry feed in North India, it will not be cost effective in Southern region as the freight component will make it's price much higher than maize in that region.

Prices of Sorghum (Jowar) were lower than last week by 0.6% to Rs.11040 per MT, prices however were higher than last year by 23.4%. Against maize, the average prices of sorghum was higher by 17.1%. Prices were much lower in Karnataka at Rs.8945 per MT and highest in Madhya pradesh at Rs.12810 per MT. White Sorghum, mostly used as food was at Rs.16000 per MT. Average prices in Maharashtra were Rs.9230 per MT. Low quality sorghum was available at Rs.7500 - 8500 per MT range in limited quantities.

Barley prices moved lower by about 8% to Rs.8500 per MT, Prices were also reported at 2.3% lower than last year. In the futures market too prices were lower for two contracts. April down by 2.2% to Rs.9060 per MT; May down by 1.24% to Rs.9184 per MT. Prices for June were unchanged at Rs.9698 per MT. In the spot market (Jaipur) prices were down by 2% to Rs.9020 per MT.

On CBOT, corn prices were down. The three most recent contracts Mar down 3.8% to $143.53 per MT, May down 3.74% to $147.78 per MT and July down 3.15% to $152.11 per MT. FOB values for gulf and PNW were indicated in the range of $169-172 per MT and $197-198 per MT respectively. Sorghum price on FOB GULF basis was indicated at $177/178 per MT.

DDGS prices in the domestic market (USA) are down as the corn prices are down and on FOB basis (US Gulf) were indicated at $149 per MT for Mar; $144 per MT for Apr; and $143 per MT for May delivery. It is the container freight component that add to the cost of the product. CNF prices to SEA region (Vietnam) were indicated at $243 per MT.

There is a sudden upswing in the freight markets, US Gulf-Japan benchmark rates were up by $3 to $68 per MT and PNW-Japan were also indicated at $43 per MT, up $5 per MT.

What's in the budget for the processing sector

In the budget 2010/11, the Finance Minister has been kind enough to the food processing sector.

1. Project imports status is granted to the initial setting up or substantial expansion of, a cold storage, cold room (including farm pre-coolers) for preservation or storage or an industrial unit for processing of agricultural, apiary, horticultural, dairy, poultry, aquatic & marine produce and meat. These projects would attract concessional rate of basic customs duty of 5%. The duty was 30% and the reduction in duty will help the industry invest in new poultry/dairy processing ventures.

2. Truck Refrigeration units for the manufacture of refrigerated vans/trucks are being exempted from basic customs duty. Such units are already exempt from excise duty. Investment in supply chain management for perishable products, specially food (meat, milk, fruits and vegetables). In line with point 1, new projects for processing.

The duty reduction will help the sector increase investment in the sector.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse grain prices tumble - good times for end users; India's Budget Highlights

2010-02-27T11:04:00.000+05:30

Coarse grain prices tumble - good times for end users

Maize prices were up a tad this week on pan India bases. An increase of 0.5% to Rs.8994 per MT. Prices were however higher than last year by 9.2%. Prices were down in Andhra Pradesh by 0.6% t Rs.8565; Maharashtra to Rs.8150; Rajasthan by 0.3% Rs.9682; and Uttar Pradesh by 4% to Rs.9516 per MT. Prices were up in Gujarat by 8.5% to Rs.10075 per MT and Tamil Nadu by 2.5% to Rs.8670 per MT.

The average price for Feb 2010 was Rs.9100 per MT, 10.90% higher than last year, but 1.89% lower than Jan 2010. One reason attributed to lower prices is increased availability as Rabi crop is available in the market.

In the futures market (NCDEX), prices of maize have slumped by 2.36% for Mar 2010 to Rs.8670 per MT. Apr down by 1.49% to Rs.8880 per MT; May down by 2.70% to Rs.8980 per MT and June down by 2.09% to Rs.9250 per MT. In the spot markets as well prices are down, Nizamabad 2.46% to Rs.8569 per MT; Karimnagar to Rs.8737 per MT and Davangere down by 1.13% to Rs.8799 per MT.

Pearl Millet prices are also down by 3% to Rs.9593 per MT, but remain higher than last year by 11.7%. Prices are higher than maize by 6.2%. The average price in Feb 2010 was Rs.9759 per MT, 19.57% higher than last year (feb 2009). The average price is however lower than Jan 2010 by 2.5%.

Sorghum prices were down by 10.4% to Rs.11113 per MT, remained higher than last year by 10.1%. Prices are also higher than maize by 19.1%. Average price in Feb 2010 was Rs.11260 per MT, 12.05% higher than Feb 2009 price and only a tad (0.2%) higher than Jan 2010 price.

Barley prices moved lower by 3.2% to Rs.9245 per MT. but remained higher than last year by 8.81%. Average price for Feb 2010 was Rs.9367 per MT, 9.3% higher than Feb 2009 prices and 0.72% higher than Jan 2010 price.

On the NCDEX, barley prices were down for Apr by 0.3% to Rs.9270 per MT; May by 0.13% to Rs.9300 per MT and Jun by 1.54% to Rs.9698 per Mt. Prices were stable at Rs.10256 for Aug 2010, but moved lower in the spot market Jaipur by 0.33% to Rs.9208 per MT.

In the International market, corn prices surged and reached a six week high. Mar contract was up 5.2% to $149.20 per MT, May up 5% to $153.53 per MT and Jul up by 4.33% $157.07 per MT. The increase is prices was reflected in FOB prices. Prices on FOB basis for US Gulf were indicated at $170/177 per MT for Mar - Jun period, while FOB (PNW) were indicated at $204/207 per MT. Sorghum prices on FOB basis (US Gulf) were indicated at $182/184 per MT for May-Mar period.

Demand for DDGS is increasing the domestic as well as the international markets. US exported about 787 TMT of DDGS in 2004 and in five years (2009) export is close to 5.52 MMT. from 2008 to 2009, exports have increased by 1.11 MMT, showing without doubt that the product is good and has been accepted in the world market as a feed ingredient of choice for making available protein and energy in the livestock rations. DDGS price on FOB basis (US Gulf) was indicated at $155 per Mt for Mar; $152 for Apr; and $146 for May. CNF prices in SEA region was indicated at $245/250 per MT.

Chinese new year has ended and the freight markets are showing a reversal and rates have increased slightly. Gulf-Japan benchmark was indicated at $65 per MT while PNW - Japan was indicated at $38 per MT.

India's Budget Highlights

As the finance minister has put out the budget and increased the fuel prices, there are indications that it will fuel WPI based inflation marginally by 0.41% and it will also have cascading effect on other products including food products as well. Foods grains transport is exempted from payment of service tax and may help little, but not much.

To give a boost to agriculture a four pronged strategy is suggested, which includes a second green revolution and increasing agricultural production, increasing assistance to food processing, reducing wastage and higher credit to farmers. But as the subsidy on fertilizers have been reduced and a new nutrient based subsidy (NSB) system put in place, the price of fertilizers is likely to increase. UREA prices are expected to go up by 10%

The budget is also expected to spur demand as income tax payers will be able to save more money and this would in turn help the economy.

Though much has been done about agriculture, it is important to realize that the share of Agriculture in India's GDP is declining and will further decline. Share of Agriculture in India's GDP was 19% in 2005 and is close to 16% in 2009 and may be down to 12.5% by 2014 as per a report.

Amit Sachdev

India Representative

U S Grains Council

E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Current maize prices down, production down too for 2009/10; US Corn production estimated higher for 2010

2010-02-20T10:35:00.002+05:30

Current maize prices down, production down too for 2009/10; US Corn production estimated higher for 2010

Maize prices have softened across the country. Pan India average price of maize is down by 2.3% to Rs.8951 ($194) per MT. The prices are however higher than last year by 8.8%. Within the states, prices across the state markets have fallen, with Maximum drop in Gujarat by 8.22% to Rs.9278 ($201) per MT, followed by Uttar Pradesh by 4.9% to Rs.9916 ($215) per MT. Prices in Tamil Nadu are down by 3.8% to Rs.8458 ($183) per MT; Rajasthan by 3.7% to Rs.9710 ($210) per MT; Karnataka down by 0.9% to Rs.8350 ($181) per MT and in Andhra Pradesh down by 0.26% to Rs.8622 ($187) per MT. Reports are that at some market yards, prices have been lower than MSP levels as well.

Based on the 2^nd Advance estimates for food grain production in India overall coarse cereal production in 2009/10 is estimated to decline by 14.38 percent to 34.27 MMT from 40.03 MMT in 2008/09. Within the coarse cereals, maize production is estimated at 17.30 MMT, against 19.31 MMT last year, a drop of 10.41%. The prices are not following the trend as there is ample availability at present at the market yards across the country, which has put pressure on the prices offered to the farmers at the market yard.

In the futures market too the prices were down for all contracts. Mar down 2.25% to Rs.8880 ($192) per Mt; Apr down 2.4% to Rs.9015 ($195) per MT; May down 1.7% to Rs.9230 ($200) per Mt; and June down 1.51% to Rs.9445 ($205) per MT. The prices saw a similar trend in the spot markets as well, with prices down in Nizamabad by 0.74% to Rs.8786 ($190) per MT and in Davangere by 2% to Rs.8900 ($193) per MT. Prices were up slightly in Karimnagar by 0.33% to Rs.8740 ($189) per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have shown a marginal drop of 0.5% to Rs.9887 per MT. However, prices are higher than last year by 18.5%. Against maize the prices are higher by 9.5%.

Sorghum prices have risen by 14.4% this week at the market yard to Rs.12404 per MT. Against last year, the increase is about 19.8%. Sorghum prices are higher from maize by 27.8%.

Barley prices have also risen to Rs.9546 per MT, an increase of 10.2%. Against last year, the prices are higher by 4.9%.

In the futures market prices were down by 3.3% for Apr to Rs.9300 per MT and also for May by 3.6% to Rs.9430 per Mt. Prices were stable at Rs.9850 per MT for Jun contract and opened at Rs.10256 per Mt for August contract. In Jaipur spot market prices were down by 0.28% to Rs.9239 per MT.

On CBOT, corn prices were down slightly. Mar contract closed 0.27% lower at $141.72 per MT, May down by 0.53% to $146.21 per MT and Jul down 0.51% to $150.54 per MT. FOB prices were more or less stable at $167/169 for Gulf and $192/195 for PNW for the period Feb-May. Sorghum prices on FOB Gulf basis were indicated at $1 lower than last week at $172/177 per MT for the period Mar-May.

In its latest reports The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects that U.S. farmers to would plant 89 million acres of corn and 77 million acres of soybeans in 2010. The 2010 corn crop is projected at 335.28 MMT, slightly bigger than the 2009 crop and up from the baseline projection of 329.18 MMT. USDA projects that Ethanol production would continue to be a major driver of the corn market, with an estimated usage 114.3 MMT of corn used in 2010. This is higher than the 2009 usage and also from the baseline usage of 111.7 MMT.

DDGS prices remained stable and availability strong as new ethanol plants are coming online. FOB values for Feb were indicated at $164 per MT and down to $157 per MT for Mar and $153 for April. Delivered prices were indicated at $235/237 for China. CBOT has announced futures trade in DDGS from April 26, 2010.

The freight rates moved up slightly. Gulf-Japan benchmark was up to $63 per MT and PNW-Japan also up to $37 per MT. Freight rates from Argentina/Brazil to China also showed an uptrend and were indicated at $47/50 per MT.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council, E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

SPOT prices see red, futures up for maize

2010-02-14T00:09:00.001+05:30

SPOT prices see red, futures up for maize

Maize price were down by 1.5% to Rs.9160 per MT, but prices remained higher by 10.2% against last year. Prices were down in Andhra Pradesh by 0.9% to Rs.8645 per MT; Karnataka by 1.6% to Rs,8425 per MT; Maharashtra 2.7% to Rs.8400 per MT and was up in Gujarat by 3.34% to Rs.10110 per MT; Rajasthan by 4% to Rs.10083 per MT and Uttar Pradesh by 3.63% to Rs.10430 per MT.

In the futures market the prices were up for all contracts. Feb up by 1.71% to Rs.8900 per MT; Mar up by 1.73% to 9085 per MT; Apr by 1.53% to RS.9240 per MT and May by 1.51% to Rs.9390 per MT. June contact closed at Rs.9590 per MT. In the spot markets though the prices were down in Nizamabad by 0.41% to RS.8852 and o.41% in Karimnagar to Rs.8711 per MT. Prices were up in Davangere by 1.11%.

Pearl Millet prices were up by 3.3% to Rs.9938 per MT, but were higher than last leat by 19.8%. The prices are also higher than last year by 7.8%.

Sorghum prices moved up by 1.4% to Rs.1039 per MT, but are 1% lower than last year. However prices are higher than maize by 15.5%.

Barley prices were down by 13.5% to Rs.8661 per MT, but were higher than last year by 7.2%.In the futures market prices remained more or less stable but in the spot market of Jaipur prices were down by 0.37% to Rs.9265 per MT.

Corn prices on CBOT moved up for the three contracts. Mar up by 3.97% to $142.11 per MT; Mat 1.47% to $146.99 per MT and July 3.6% to $151.32 per MT. FOB prices (US Gulf) were more or less stable at $167/168 per Mt for Feb-April and FOB PNW was up to $193/198 for the period Feb-April.

USDA’s WASDE report increased U.S. corn use for ethanol by 2.54 and export by 1.143 dropping end stocks by 1.143 MMT. The world stocks were also cut by 2.15 MMT

DDGS prices on FOB basis have gone up for Feb ($163 pr MT), but down for other months to $155 (Mar) and $145 for April. CNF price to China was stable at $239 per MT.

Freight rates have dropped as the Chinese new year has started and the festivities will be on for next 15 days. Gulf-Japan benchmark was down by $2 per Mt to $61 per Mt and also for PNW-Japan down to $35 per MT.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council. E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Increased availability keep coarse grain prices stable; Milk prices will pressure inflation, increased availability can help

2010-02-06T07:37:00.003+05:30

Increased availability keep coarse grain prices stable

On pan India average prices have gone up slightly by 1.8% to Rs.9300 ($200) per MT and remain higher than last year by 11%. Prices in Gujarat, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh have come down by 3.9%, (Rs.9783/$210), 1.3% (Rs.8565/$184) and 0.29% (Rs.10064/$216) respectively, while prices have moved up in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Tamil nadu by 0.20% (Rs.8656/$186), 2.8% (Rs.8637/$185), 0.76% (Rs.9688/$208) and 0.8% (Rs.8800/$189) respectively. There is also anticipation of a good crop in Rabi, which may not cover the losses in Khariff crop, but will increase availability and pressure prices for some time though.

International cues and good domestic availability has put pressure on maize prices in the futures market. Feb down 1.4% (Rs.8750/$188); Mar down 1.1% (Rs.8930/$192); Apr down 0.76% (Rs.9100/$195) and May down 1% (Rs.9250/$198). In the spot markets, prices were down in Nizamabad by 0.16% (Rs.8889/$190) and Davangere by 1.5% (Rs.8986/$193), but up in Karimnagar by 0.32% (Rs.8786/$189).

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have been stable at Rs.9620 ($206) per MT, and are up against last year by 15.8%. Against maize the prices are up by 3.3%.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices have slid lower this week again by 2.1% to Rs.10685 ($229) per MT, but have remained higher than last year by 12.9%. Prices are higher than maize by 12.9%.

Barley prices on pan India average are up by 5.9% to Rs.10015 ($215) per MT and are higher than last year by 13%. . Prices are also up in the futures slightly by 0.8% for Apr (Rs.9620/$206) and 0.14% for May (Rs.9800/$211) and down for June by 1.5% to Rs.9850 ($212) per MT. In the spot market though the prices are stable at Rs.9290 ($199) per MT.

On the CBOT, corn prices are down for Mar contract by 2.46% to $136.68 per MT, only due to large stocks in US and good corn crop anticipated from Argentina and Brazil. May contract was up slightly by 0.26% to $144.87 and July down by 1.86% to $148.81 per MT. Prices on FOB basis (US Gulf and PNW) were indicated at $165/166 and $187/190 per MT respectively for Feb/may period. Sorghum prices on US Gulf basis were indicated to be higher than corn at $169/174 per MT.

Due to positive ethanol margins and increased availability, DDGS prices are under pressure in the domestic market and demand is increasing in domestic as well as export markets. Prices were indicated at $159/166 for Feb/May period on Fob basis (US Gulf) and CNF to China was indicative at $237 per MT for a 37% pro-fat DDGS.

Freight markets were down as Chinese buying is slow as the date for Chinese New Year approaches. Gulf-Japan benchmark was indicated at $63 per MT, while PNW-Japan was down to $37 per MT. Argentina/Brazil - China freight was indicated at $47/50 per MT, down by $3-4 per MT.

Milk prices will pressure inflation, increased availability can help

Food inflation is again up to 17.56% for the week ending Jan 23, 2010. Most of the co-operatives in India specially in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka have increased the milk prices in retail claiming increased prices of feed and ingredients. The increased milk prices in Feb will put pressure on food inflation and unless milk production can be increased and milk availability in the market be increased, prices are not going to come down.

While new germplasm has been introduced in India increased production will only be available 3 years from now, however to enhance milk availability immediately, farmers can use a Calf Milk Replacer (CMR), which will cost less (atleast 10% lower than the sale price of milk) and free milk for the farmer to sell/pour in the dairy. In the first 4 weeks, a calf can consume about 90 - 120 liters of milk, depending on its size. It is a sizable amount of milk in one year based on the large number of livestock India has and calves born. Considering 24 million females calves, consuming 100 liter of milk, it would be 2400 million liters (2.4 MMT) of more milk available for human consumption.

Amit Sachdev,

India Representative,

U S Grains Council.

E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse cereals prices slide lower on better availability

2010-01-30T20:18:00.001+05:30

Coarse cereals prices slide lower on better availability

Maize prices slid by 2.1% at the market yard this week and averaged Rs.9138 ($ 198) per MT. The prices though are higher than last year by 9.9%. The average prices some states were down including Andhra Pradesh by 0.75% to Rs.8635 ($187) per MT; Gujarat by 1.2% to Rs.10185 ($221) per MT; Maharashtra by 2.5% to Rs.8400 ($ 182) and Rajasthan by 10.6% to Rs.9620 ($208) per MT. Prices were reported to be up in Karnataka by 3% to Rs.8676 ($188) per MT; Tamil nadu by 1.4% to Rs.8730 ($189) per MT and Uttar Pradesh by 1.6% to Rs.10085 ($219) per MT. The average price of maize for Jan 2010 was Rs.9278 ($201) per MT, 16.34% higher than Jan 2009, but 1% lower than Dec 2009 prices at the market yard.

In the futures market as well, prices fell by mire that 4% for some contracts. Feb contract down by 3.84% to Rs.8875 ($192) per MT; Mar down 3.9% to Rs.9030 ($196) per MT; Apr down 4.46% to Rs.9170 ($199) per MT and May down 3.3% to Rs.9350 ($203) per MT. In the spot markets as well, prices have stumbled, but not by the above levels. Nizamabad down 1.64% to Rs.8904 ($193) per MT, Karimnagar down 0.17% to Rs.8735 ($189) per MT. Davangere (Karnataka) was the only market, where spot market prices were up by 0.69% to Rs.9127 ($198) per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices also slid at the market yard by 4.1% reaching Rs.9609 per MT. The prices are higher than last year by 15.5%. The prices are higher than maize by 4.9%. The average price of Pearl Millet for Jan 2010 was Rs.10012 per MT, 26.9% higher than Jan 2009, but 0.76% lower than the prices in Dec 2009.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices slid by 3.8% at the Market yard reaching Rs.10916 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 10.4% and also higher than maize by 16.3%. The average prices of Sorghum in Jan 2010 was Rs.11237 per MT, 20.32% higher than the price in Jan 2009, but 10.9% lower than the price in Dec 2009.

All coarse cereals prices have remained subdued in Jan 2009 as the deliveries were better in the month due to delayed harvest (Nov 2009).

Barley prices shot up by 5.4% for this week to Rs.9436 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 5.1%. The average price of Barley for Jan 2010 was Rs.9300 per MT, about 4.26% higher than Jan 2009 and also 6.32% higher than Dec 2009 prices. India produced only one crop for barley and the new crop will be arriving the markets in Mar/April.

In the futures market though Barley prices moved lower in anticipation of a good crop. Apr contract down 1.23% to 9602 per MT; May down 4% to Rs.9760 per MT and Jun down 4.76% to Rs.10000 per MT. In the spot market at Jaipur, prices were down by 0.63% to Rs.9291 per MT. In the US market, feed barley was indicated at $215 per MT FOB US Gulf.

On CBOT, corn prices were down by the end of the week, after starting at a high at the start of the week. Prices ended lower for all near contracts, Mar down 2.36% to $140.14 per MT; May down 2.14% to $144.47 per MT and Jul down 2.07% to $148.81 per MT. Prices FOB US Gulf were indicated at $169 for Feb; $165 for Mar; $166 for April and $167 for May 2010. FOB PNW prices were indicated at $189 – 192 per Mt for the same period.

DDGS prices have remained almost same as last week in the US. FOB Guld prices are indicative at $155 per Mt for Feb, while $149 per Mt for Mar 2010. CNF prices to SEA region (Vietnam) were indicated at $236 per MT.

Freight rates are down slightly, mainly due to reports that the credit squeeze will be announced in China soon. US Gulf-Japan was down to $68.50 per MT, while PNW-Japan was down to $38 per MT.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council. Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Maize prices remain more or less stable in India and dip in the world market

2010-01-23T11:23:00.002+05:30

Maize prices remain more or less stable in India and dip in the world market

Maize prices in the market yard was down by 0.8% to Rs.9336 per MT. This is the pan India average value, and prices are higher in some state markets ad lower in some. But overall the prices are higher than last year by 13.2%. Prices in in some states moved up against last week, including Andhra Pradesh by 2% to Rs.8570 per MT; Gujarat by 0.73% to Rs.10290; Maharashtra by 1.4% to Rs.8620; Rajasthan by 7.6% to Rs.10760; Tamil Nadu by 0.93% to Rs.8610 per MT and Uttar Pradesh by 5.21% to Rs.9925 per MT. It was only in Karnataka that the prices slid lower by 2.2% to Rs.8400 per MT. One of the reason for lower overall average is the lower minimum prices at the market yards, due to some quality issues. The high prices in the market yards are much higher.

In the future markets though the prices moved a tad lower against last weeks. Feb Rs.9230, down 1%; Mar Rs.9400, down 0.84%; Apr Rs.9599, down 0.63%. Prices for May was up by 1.55% to 9820 per MT, anticipating a supply demand gap during the period and with no new crop being available after April/May 2010. If all goes well, the Rabi harvest will be starting by Feb end/March and mat be little early in some states, which is likely to stabilize the prices for the time being. In the SPOT markets, prices moved lower in all the markets. Nizamabad Rs.9053, down 1.2%; Karimnagar Rs.8750, down 0.56% and Davangere Rs.9064, down 0.92%.

Pearl Millet prices also moved lower by 2.3% at Rs.10025 per MT, prices are higher than last year by 24.2% and 6.9% against maize.

Sorghum prices moved up in the key states by 3.7% to RTs.11348 per MT and also was higher than last year by 17%. Prices were higher than maize, the key energy ingredient for feed and starch by 17.7%, making it impossible to use the product in the two sectors. Sorghum may still be used in poultry and cattle feed to some extent is some states, where the prices are comparable, but again a complete replacement with maize may not be possible.

Barley prices moved lower at the market yard by 7.8% to Rs.8972 and were also down by 4.5% against last year.

In the futures market (NCDEX), prices are lower for Apr by 5.7% to Rs.9722 per MT and for May by 4.46% to Rs.10020 per MT. For Jun contract, the prices are 10500 per MT. In the spot market (Jaipur), prices were down by 1.64% to Rs.9350 per MT.

On CBOT, corn was down for the three contracts. Mar down 1.25% to $143.53 per MT; May down 1.93% to $147.63 per MT and July down 1.37% to $151.96 per MT. Reasons being attributed to the prices moving lower are anticipation of a higher corn crop for 2010 and a proposal from Obama Administration’s, that is likely to bar commercial banks from investing in hedge funds may have had an impact on the commodity prices now and in future as well. FOB value of corn for Gulf is down to $172 per MT for Feb and $169 for Mar/Apr 2010. FOB PNW prices are indicated at $192/195 per MT for Jan-Apr period. Sorghum price (FOB US Gulf) is indicated a little higher than corn at $175-177 per MT for Mar/Apr delivery.

DDGS prices for Feb-Apr on FOB basis (US Gulf) have been indicated lower than last week, Feb $155 per MT; Mar $149 per MT and Apr $146 per MT as there is good supply. CNF value (SEA/Thailand) is indicated at $237 per MT. The demand for DDGS is high in China as the feed manufacturers and livestock owners see a value in feeding the protein/energy product. It is a good alternate to other protein meals, whose prices are much higher. Corn Gluten Meal (FOB US Gulf) is indicated at $660 per MT.

The freight rates slid lower slightly by about $1.50 per MT this week. Gulf-Japan down to $68.50 per MT and PNW-Japan benchmark was down to $39 per MT. Freight from Argentina/Brazil to China was indicated at $51/54 per MT.

Amit Sachdev

India Representative

U S Grains Council

Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Maize prices remain down and may remain so in the short term

2010-01-16T08:40:00.003+05:30

Maize prices remain down and may remain so in the short term

Maize prices moved up slightly at the market yard by about 2% to Rs.9400 ($205) per MT on an average which may not be a correct picture as prices in major markets were down. Prices are higher than last year by 15%. While prices in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra were stable as last week and close to MSP levels, prices in Karnataka moved up by 2.55% to Rs.8610 ($188) per MT. In other regions, prices moved down, Rajasthan down 6% to Rs.9992 ($219) per MT; Tamil Nandu down 1.1% to Rs.8530 ($187) per MT and Uttar Pradesh down 7.4% to Rs.9433 9$206) per MT. There are quality concerns and that could be one reason for prices to at this level. Reports also indicate that at some locations, lower quality maize is being sold at prices lower than MSP and hence this disparity in prices. Endusers, specially poultry feed manufacturers and integrators ready to pay for quality, expect to pay a higher price.

Futures market reflect the higher corn availability over the next few months and hence the prices are down. Jan down 1.6% to Rs.9150 ($200) per MT; Feb down 1.63% to Rs.9320 ($204) per MT; Mar down 2.46% to Rs.9480 ($207) per MT; Apr down 2.8% to Rs.9660 ($211) per MT. May contract was close to Rs.9670 ($211) per MT. In the spot market prices in Davangere were up by 2.79% to Rs.9149 ($200) per MT and at othet spot markets prices moved lower or remained stable. Nizamabad stable at Rs.9163 ($200) per MT and Karimnagar down by 3.87% to Rs.8800 ($192) per MT and Davangere up by 2.79% at Rs.9149 ($200) per MT.

Pearl Millet prices moved up by 1% to Rs.10257 per MT at the market yard, about 21% higher than last year at the same time. Prices are about 8.3% higher than maize.

Sorghum prices are down by 6.8% to Rs.10942 per Mt, reflection good availability. Prices are higher than last year though by about 15% and against maize by 14%.

Barley prices moved up by 7.6% at the market yard and are higher than last year by 7.7%. On the futures market (NCDEX), prices were up by 1-1.5%. April up 1% to Rs.10310 per MT; May up 1.4% to 10488 per MT. In the spot market (Jaipur) prices are higher by 0.5% to Rs.9500 per MT.

Food inflation for the first week of Jan 2010 may be down to 17.28%, which may be a good sign, but overall inflation for Dec was up to 7.31%. Inflation rate for Nov 2009 was only 4.78%. The food inflation is expected to be down in the next few months as the new crop (Rabi) is expected, but as per report, wheat area is don and so in the Rapeseed/Mustard area, which would be reflected in the production and prices. Overall area under coarse cereals and oilseeds is down and is up slightly for pulses.

In the US market, prices are down substantially, showing an over supply situation. The three contracts the prices were down by close to 12%. mar down by 12% to $145.35 per MT; May down 11% to $150 per MT and Jul down 11.16% to $154.08 per MT. The drop in prices is reflected in the FOB values as well. FOB US Gulf was indicated at $175 per MT for Feb and $173 for Mar, down almost $19 per MT against last week. FOB PNW was indicated at $195 for Jan/Feb and $198 for Apr, against down by +$20 per MT.

Sorghum prices also moved lower with corn and FOB US Gulf was indicated at $180/182 per MT for Feb/Apr.

DDGS prices (FOB basis) US Gulf was inducated at $166 per MT for Feb and $155 per MT for Mar. CNF prices (SEA region - Vietnam) are indicated at $246 per MT. The prices are little higher due to the higher freight at container costs in US.

Freight markets were down down slightly across the board. Gulf-japan benchmark prices were down by $2 per MT to $70 per MT and PNW-Japan was also down by $2 per Mt to $40 per MT.

Amit Sachdev,

India Representative,

U S Grains Council

Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse grain prices down in India- could be a passing phase

2010-01-09T10:49:00.003+05:30

Coarse grain prices down in India- could be a passing phase

Coarse grain prices moved lower as the deliveries to the market improved to some extent. Maize prices were reported to be down by about 1% to Rs.9230 ($202) per MT on an average at the market yard. The prices though are higher than last year by 17.8% at this time of the year (First week of Jan). Prices in Andhra and Tamil nadu were reported to be down by 1% and 2% to Rs.8500 ($186) and Rs. 8630 ($189) per MTrespectively. Prices in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh however moved up by 0.5%, 7.2% and 4.5% to Rs.10150 per MT, RS.10628 ($234) per MT and Rs.10193 ($224) per MT respectively. Prices in Karnataka and Maharashtra remained stable close to Rs.8400 ($184) and Rs.8500 ($186) per MT.

Endusers in West Bengal have purchased maize at prices close to Rs.11300 ($248) per MT, while in Gujarat last week the delivered values were close to Rs.10200 ($224) per MT. There are some press reports indicating that some export consignments have been rejected at the ports due to quality concerns by the buyer’s agents and this maize would eventually find way into the poultry / starch / dairy feed sector.

In the futures market, prices moved lower for all the contracts by about 0.1 – 1%. Jan down to Rs.9300 ($204) per Mt; Feb down 1% to Rs.9475 ($208) per MT; Mar down 0.3% to RS.9720 ($214) per MT and Apr down 0.1% to Rs.9940 ($218) per MT. In the spot markets as well prices were reported to be down. Nizamabad and Karimnagar stable at Rs.9160 ($201) and Rs.9155 ($201) per MT, while prices in Davangere slumped by 2.64% to Rs.8900 ($196) per MT. Pressure of rejection of the consignment at the ports could be one more reason to drag the pries lower as most of the stock was sourced from the corn belts of Davangere, Haveri and Ranibannur and this has also effected the future values. The lower prices could be a temporary phase and is always seen about 8 - 10 weeks after the start of the the harvest when more stocks arrive in the market. In 2008/09 the prices started to move lower in Sept (Rs.8500/$187); Oct (Rs.8223/$181); Nov (Rs.8137/$179); Dec (Rs.7815/$172), after which the prices have continued an upward trend. This year (2009/10) the lower movement of the prices was delayed due to the delayed harvest.

Sugar prices in the wholesale markets have continued their northward march, crossed Rs.44 ($0.96) per kg. In the retail market, branded sugar is already selling at Rs.48 ($1.05) per kg. With such high prices, the demand of sugar substitutes (Dextrose/Maltose) is likely to increase. Would the beverage companies demand High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS), would be a factor. Currently all the beverage companies use sugar, but with increase in prices, there just may be point to shift to HFCS.

Pearl Millet prices slumped by 2.4% to Rs.10157 ($223) per MT, but were higher than last year by 23.8%. Against maize, the prices of pearl millet are higher by 9.1%.

Sorghum prices also slumped by 4.5% to Rs.11740 ($258) per MT, but remained higher than last year by 24.5%. The prices were also higher than maize by 21.4%.

Barley prices have moved up by 6% this week to Rs.9040 ($199) per MT. Prices are higher than last year by about 7.6%. In the futures market, prices of barley have slumped, Apr down by 2.4% to Rs.10210 ($224) per MT; May down by 2.9% to Rs.10342 ($227) per MT. in the SPOT market (Jaipur), prices were down by 0.5% to Rs.9455 ($208) per MT. In the US, feed barley prices are close to $215 per MT.

On CBOT corn prices continued to climb and were up by 1.3% – 1.7% for the three contacts. Mar up 1.35% to $165.34 per MT; May up 1.37% to $169.28% and Jul up 1.75% to $173.45 per MT. Due to pressure on rail car availability, freezing of rivers, which has affected the barge movement, the FOB values have also riser sharply. FOB US Gulf was indicated at $196 for Feb, while for Mar was indicated at $192 per MT. FOB PNW was indicated at $215-217 per MT for Jan – April. Sorghum prices (FOB us Gulf) were indicated higher than corn at $200/202 per MT.

DDGS prices are under pressure due to weather concerns, non availability of containers and rail cars as well. FOB US Gulf were indicated at $174 for Feb 2010, while for Mar 2010, are indicated at $166 per MT. CNF values (Thailand) were indicated at $248 per MT. The other protein meal (Corn Gluten meal) is indicated at $655 per MT (FOB US Gulf).

The freight rates have moved up due to increased demand of freight ships for coal and other raw materials as the world economy get back to shape in the new year. Gulf – Japan rates were indicated at $72 per MT, up $4 per MT and PNW-Japan was also up by $5 per MT to $42 per MT against last week. The increased in crude prices is also one more reason for the freight rates to strengthen.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council. E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Mix of prices in the last week of the year 2009

2010-01-02T10:00:00.004+05:30

Wishing you a Healthy, Wealthy and Wise 2010

May you make bigger and better decisions in 2010, that will help make this world a better place to live.

May your decisions reduce the carbon footprint..........., but don't forget to drink more milk, eat more corn and demand a safe product.

Mix of prices in the last week of the year 2009

Maize prices moved lower in the market by 3.5% in the last week of the year to Rs.9325 per MT. Prices remained higher than last year by 17.5%. The average prices for the month of Dec 2009 was Rs.9373 per MT, up 19.79% against last year (Dec 2008) average and 0.42% higher than Nov 2009. While the prices moved up slightly in Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat by 0.75% and 0.8% to Rs.8585 and Rs.10090 per MT respectively, prices have moved lower in Maharashtra 1.91% to RS.8533; Rajasthan 5.41% to Rs.9913; Tamil nadu 1.34% to Rs.8810; and Uttar Pradesh 4.87% to Rs.9750 per MT.

In the futures market as well, prices moved lower for Feb, Mar and April contracts by 3.5%, 4.6% and 5.9% respectively. While Feb contract ended at Rs.9570 per MT, Mar was down to Rs.9750 and Apr at Rs.9950 per MT. This being the last week of the year and long holiday in the companies. High deliveries in the market, could be one reason of the price correction. In the spot markets as well, the markets corrected and were down in Nizamabad by 1.88% to Rs.9167. In Karimnagar prices were up slightly at Rs.0.36% to Rs.9138, while in Davangere prices were stable at Rs.9142 per MT.

Pearl Millet prices moved up by 5.1% this week to Rs.10402, higher by 25.6% against last year. Prices were also higher than maize by 10.4%. The average price for the month of Dec was Rs.10089, 32% higher than Dec 2008 average and 2.6% lower than Nov 2009.

Sorghum prices corrected and were down by 10.2% to Rs.12299 per MT at the market yard. Prices were higher than last year by 17.7%. Prices were higher than maize by 24.2%. The average price for Dec 2009 was Rs.12611 per MT, 39.56% higher than Dec 2008, but 4.31% lower than Nov 2009 average.

Barley prices moved lower than last week by 8.4% to Rs.8528 per MT, 7.2% lower than last year. The average for the month was Rs.8747 per MT, 1.4% lower than Dec 2008 and 8.68% lower than Nov 2009.

In the futures market, prices were up by 1.16% for Apr to Rs.10460 per MT and up by 1.93% for May contract to 10650 per MT. In the Jaipur market, prices were up by 0.88% to Rs.9500 per MT.

This week was again a short week, but prices gained on CBOT from the three contracts, Mar up by 1.47% to $163.14 per MT, May up 1.33% to $166.99 per MT and Jul up by 1.12% to $170.46 per MT. Indicative FOB values for Gulf and PNW were $190 and $211 per MT.

Amit Sachdev,

India Representative,

U S Grains Council

Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Maize prices up in open market, slip in future markets; Corn cob to ethanol – a new approach; New draft rules for registration and licensing for food

2009-12-26T10:56:00.003+05:30

SEASON"S GREETINGS AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR.

May the new year bring prosperity, peace and happiness

Maize prices up in open market, slip in future markets

Maize prices moved up this week to Rs.9660 ($205) per Mt at the market yard on pan India average. Prices are higher than last year by 20.6%. Reports indicate prices are up in Rajasthan 5.48% to Rs.10480 ($223) per MT; Tamil Nadu 3.3% to Rs.8930 ($190) per Mt and Uttar Pradesh 0.16% to Rs.10250 ($218) per MT. Prices are stable in Karnataka and Maharashtra at Rs.8400 ($178) and 8700 ($185) per MT respectively and are down in Andhra Pradesh by 0.36% to Rs.8500 ($181) per Mt and in Gujarat 1.3% to Rs.10000 ($213) per MT. Arrivals are slow in Uttar Pradesh and the season is at its end. Buying is good from Maharashtra and Karnataka with endusers trying to cover as much as they can.

As the week ended, maize prices were down in the futures market (NCDEX) by 2- 2.6%. Jan down 1.9% to Rs.9740 ($207) per Mt; Feb down 2.64% to Rs.9920 ($211) per MT; Mar down 1.82% to Rs.10220 ($217) per MT and Apr down 1.21% to Rs.10580 ($225) per MT. In the spot markets as well, the prices were down by 1.2 – 2.5%. Nizamabad down by 1.36% to Rs.9343 ($199) per MT; Karimnagar down by 1.26% to Rs.9105 ($193) per MT and prices in Davangere down by 2.46% to Rs.9137 ($194) per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices are stable at Rs.9890 ($210) per MT, about 21,6% higher than last year. Against last year prices are higher by 2.4%.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices have moved higher by 3.7% to Rs.13690 ($291) per MT and are about 40% higher than last year. The coarse cereals is just unaffordable for use in cattle / poultry feed and the pressure in on maize only to be used as a source of energy. The prices are higher than maize by 29.4% on an average.

Barley prices moved up by 9.8% this week to Rs.9300 ($198) per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 10.4%. In the futures market, prices were up a tad. April plus 0.5% to Rs.10340 ($220) per MT, and May up 0.86% to Rs.10448 ($222) per MT. While in Jaipur spot market, prices were stable at Rs.9417 ($200) per MT.

Corn harvest in US has been delayed and as on Dec 20, 2009 95% of the corn crop was harvested. Four states namely Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee and Texas have reported a 100 percent harvest and rest all are at 88 – 98%. North Dakota is the only state that is at 68% crop harvested and the harvest could well extend into spring.

On CBOT the prices moved up due to higher export buying, short week and delayed harvest. Mar contract closed at 160.77 per MT, up 2.71%; May was up 2.50% to $164.79 per MT and Jul was up 2.58% to $168.57%. FOB US gulf was indicated at $ $184/185 per Mt for Feb – Apr period and FOB PNW was indicated at $203-210 per MT.

The freight market has been more or less stable in this week, due to holiday season in most of the world, Gulf- Japan was indicated at $68 per MT, while PNW-Japan was indicated at $37 per MT, down by 0.50 per Mt on both the sectors.

Corn cob to ethanol – a new approach

Corn cob to ethanol is soon becoming a reality as a US based company, POET plans to set up a plant that would convert the cob into ethanol. This would be the a 94.5 mill liter plant when it start operations in 2011. The company has a pilot plant since 2008 and has produced ethanol from the cobs, which are otherwise a waste product. The US biofuels industry is moving toward cellulosic, as has been mandated, which all for 44% of ethanol (60.48 million liters of the 136.08 million liters) to be manufactured using cellulosic material by 2022.

New draft rules for registration and licensing for food businesses

The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) has come out with the draft rules for registration and licensing of food business. The draft discusses the integration of the licensing provisions in the following Orders relating to food products

1. Fruit Products Order, 1955

2. Prevention of Food Adulteration Act, 1954

3. Milk and Milk Products Order, 1992

4. Vegetable Oil Products (Control) Order, 1947

5. Edible Oils Packaging (regulation ) Orders, 1998

6. The solvent Extracted Oil, De oiled Meal and Edible flour (Control) Order, 1967

7. Meat Food Products Orders, 1973

The draft sets a distinction has been introduced between ‘registration’ and ‘licensing’ and also has a separate set of sanitary and hygiene condition under the category. The link to the draft rules can be found on the FSSAI website http://www.fssai.gov.in/

Encourage everyone in food business to go through the rules and regulation and provide inputs to the authority.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council, Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Prices stable for maize, but higher that last year, coarse cereals prices made a dent; DDGS a major livestock feed ingredient

2009-12-19T10:06:00.003+05:30

Prices stable for maize, but higher that last year, coarse cereals prices made a dent; DDGS a major livestock feed ingredient

Maize prices moved up by 2.8% on the average at the market yard for pan India to Rs.9580 per MT. The prices are 15% higher than last year at this point. Prices remained stable in Maharashra and Karnataka from where stocks are moving to other parts of the country. Prices in Andhra were slightly lower by 0.6% to Rs.8550 per MT, while in all other states average prices moved up. Gujarat up by 2% to Rs.10140 per MT; Rajasthan up by 1.3% to 9950 per MT; Tamil nadu up by 0.76% to Rs. 8650 per MT and Uttar Pradesh up by 5.5% to Rs.10233 per MT. While the overall availability may be good, an average sample of maize contains more of small grains as per market reports.

Demand from starch units is good and with Government of Maharashtra clearing maize, Sorghum and pearl millet), the demand is likely to rise further within one year one would be able to see use of 0.5 – 0.7 MMT of grains used in the sector. Already plants in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka are using maize to produce alcohol. While NGO’s have opposed the move, as coarse cereals are staple for the resource poor farmers and the diversion will increase the price, which many experts believe is good for the farmers.

On NCDEX the prices are lower than last week by 1.5 - 1.7%, probably as more stocks are in the market and Rabi sowing is a little better. Jan contract was Rs.9930 per Mt, down 1.68%; Feb down 1.54% to Rs.10190; Mar down 1.51% to Rs.10410 per Mt. Only April contract was up marginally by 0.14% to Rs.10710 per MT. In the spot markets as well, prices were down slightly, Nizamabad down 1.1% to Rs.9472 per MT; Karimnagar down 1.47% to Rs.9222 per Mt. Prices in Davangere were up by 0.12% to Rs.9362 per MT.

Pearl Millet prices remained stable at RS.9900 per MT and were higher than last year by 23.3%. Against maize, prices are higher by 3.2%.

Sorghum prices also have moved up by 3.4% to Rs.13,200 per MT and are higher than last year by 32%. Prices are higher than maize by 27.4%.

Barley prices at the market yard moved lower by 6.2% to Rs.8420 and were also down against last year by 7.5%. In the futures as well as the spot market, prices moved lower. April down 0.11% to 10208 per MT; May down 0.61% to 10398 per Mt. Jaipur down 0.43% to Rs.9409 per MT.

As on Dec 11, 2009, while overall wheat crop was sown in more area in 2009 (21.728 mill hac) than in 2008 (21.602 mill hac), repots were that the sowing was up in Madhya Pradesh and down in other key states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat. Barley area is reported to be up to 0.623 mill hac in 2009 from 0.58 mill hac, an increase of 7.4%. Area under sorghum is reported to be down to 4.347 mill hac in 2009, against 4.791 mill hac in 2008, loss of 9.2%. Maize/Corn area is up slightly (3.4%) to 0.73 mill hac in 2009 against 0.706 mill hac in 2008. Area under all oilseeds in projected to be down by 7.19% to 7.7 mill hac in 2009. Area under pulses/lentils is expected to be up 2.3% to 11.19 mill hac in 2009 against 10.93 mill hac in 2008.

For the week ended Dec 5, 2009, the food inflation has hit a 11 year high of 19.95%, mostly due to lower production of food crops and higher demand. GOI has assured that in case there is a requirement, imports would be stepped up for all food products.

On CBOT, corn prices settled lower for the near contract May 2010, down 1.68% to $156.82 per Mt. For May 10 as well prices were down by 1.68% to $160.77 per Mt. July contract closed at $164.32 per MT. Prices are down as the market is entering the holiday mode and next 10 days would be easy on the market. FOB gulf prices are indicated at $180 per MT for Feb to April and FOB PNW are indicated at $199-206 per MT for Jan – April 2010. Sorghum was indicated at $184-186 per MT for Jan – Mar 2010.

DDGS is finding more users domestically and also in other parts of the world. Livestock users have excepted DDGS as a product of choice in livestock, poultry, fish and swine rations all over the world. For the period Jan – Oct 2009, US has exported 4.56 MMT of DDGS, 17.34% higher than 2008 (same period). The countries parts from Americas which, are bigger buyers include China 336 TMT; Thailand 261 TMT; Vietnam 200 TMT; Malaysia 30 TMT. Countries like Turkey and Egypt have been consistently importing the product for use in all livestock rations. The current price FOB Gulf is indicated at $171 for Jan/Feb and $163 for Mar. Current CNF values for SEA region are close to $235-246 depending on the destination. The other protein meal (corn gluten) is trading at $670 per MT (FOB US Gulf).

The freight markets are more or less stable. US Gulf-Japan was indicated at $68.50 per MT, while PNW – Japan was indicated at $37.50 per MT, up $0.50 per MT for both the sectors. Argentina/Brazil – China freight rates were indicated at $48.50 – 51.50 up by $0.50 per MT.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council, Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Whole sale markets receive grain, prices move lower, inflation is up

2009-12-12T10:38:00.002+05:30

Whole sale markets receive grain, prices move lower, inflation is up

Maize prices have moved up in the market yard by 3.7% to Rs.9300 ($200) per MT range. Prices are higher than last year by 15%. Prices in Andhra Pradesh moved up by 0.73% to Rs.8600 ($185) per MT while in Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh the prices moved lower by 1.13%, 0.63% and 8.3% to Rs.9950 ($204), Rs,8600 ($185) and Rs.9700 ($209) per MT respectively. Prices remained stable in Karnataka and Maharashtra.

On the NCDEX futures market, prices moved lower. Dec ended 0.8% lower than last week at Rs.9830 ($211) per MT; Jan down 1.17% Rs.10100 ($217) ; Feb down 1.66% to Rs.10350 ($223) ; Mar down 3% to Rs.10570 ($227). Spot markets to ended lower than last week with Karimnagar losing the most 2.48% to Rs.9360 ($201). Nizamabad was down 0.68% to Rs.9583 ($206) and Davangere lost 0.2% to Rs.9350 (201) per MT. On the MCX futures, Dec contract was stable at Rs.9870 ($212) per MT, while in the Spot Nizamabad, price was Rs.9555 ($205) per MT, down 0.93% and much closer to NCDEX Nizamabad spot price.

It is interesting to note that the Dec futures have been inching up for the last 3 weeks now and just about 2.5% higher than the spot prices at Nizamabad.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were down by 4.4% to Rs.9900 ($213) per MT, but are higher than last year by 25.5%. Against maize, the prices are higher by 5.9% at the market yard.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved up by 15% at the market yard to reach Rs.12770 ($275) per MT, about 32% higher than last year and 27.6% higher than maize.

Barley prices also moved up by 8% at the market yard to Rs.9050 ($195) per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 5.8%. In the futures market, Dec contract was down by 3.28% to Rs.9608 ($207). Apr and May contract also lost 3.28% and 0.45% to close at Rs.10300 ($221) and Rs.10462 ($225) per MT. Jaipur spot price for barley was Rs.9450 ($203) per Mt, down 0.2% from last week.

On CBOT corn prices moved up by about +4% as the harvest is delayed further due to blizzard conditions in the corn belt at least 38 MMT (1.5 billion bushels) is still in the field. Dec contract up 4.18% to $153.22 per MT; Mar up 4.12% to $159.20 per MT and May up 4.11% to $163.53 per MT. FOB Gulf price is indicated at $179-182 per Mt for Jan to Mar, while FOB PNW value is indicated at $194-196 per MT. Sorghum is indicated higher than corn at $186/189 per Mt FOB Gulf.

DDGS prices FOB US Gulf for Dec were indicated close to $182 per MT, while for Jan and Feb were indicated at $177 per MT and $166 per MT respectively. Prices CNF SEA region (Vietman) were indicated at $240 per MT.

The freight rates are little lower as the markets get ready for a holiday season. Gulf – Japan was indicated at $68 (down $1) per MT and PNW japan was indicated at $39 (down $2) per MT.

Food prices in India are moving up every week and the food inflation for the week Nov 28 touched 19.05%, 1.55% higher than the previous week (Nov 21). Analysts believe that while the food inflation is based on WPI, at the consumer level (retail) the prices are much higher and that the food inflation will be more than 25%.

There are many areas in Punjab dairy belt where maize has been grown for last two years. This though is not for grain production, but for corn silage for feeding to dairy animals. Using the seed for grain production (early maturity) makes a lower grade silage with high dry matter and lower protein. As the feed prices move up, farmers have started to look for alternatives, which is taxing to the animals and reduces production. Farmers at different locations, have put the feed cost per kg of milk at Rs.9.6 - 11.6 and the cost of production at Rs.11 – 13.5 per liter depending on production of milk.

Amit Sachdev, India Representative, U S Grains Council, Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Lower prices as on date, future prices are higher; International markets move lower and accept biotech

2009-12-05T10:15:00.002+05:30

Lower prices as on date, future prices are higher

Maize prices on an average dropped by 3.4% to reach Rs.9000 ($194.6) per MT at the market yard. The prices are higher than last year by 12.2%. While prices were reported to be down in Andhra Pradesh by 0.4% to Rs.8540 ($184.7) per MT; Tamil nadu by 2.6% to Rs.8633 ($186.6) per MT. Prices are stable in Karnataka at Rs.8400 ($181.6) and Rajasthan. Prices are reported to be up in Gujarat by 1.2% to Rs.10050 ($217) per MT; Maharashtra by 2.7% to Rs.8650 ($187) per MT and Uttar Pradesh by 14.6% to Rs.10583 ($228.8) per MT. The deliveries in production centers have increased specially in Kartanaka and Maharasthtra

In north India, delivered prices are reported at Rs.11200 ($242) per MT. Corn is available from Karnataka (loaded) at Rs.8650 ($187) per MT.

On NCDEX, prices rallied higher than last week for two contracts Dec and Mar 2010 by 0.5% and 0.8% to Rs.9910 ($214) per MT and Rs.10900 ($235) per MT. respectively. Jan and Feb contracts were stable at Rs.10220 ($221) per MT and Rs.10525 ($228) per MT respectively. In the spot markets prices have moved up by the end of the week and were up by approximately 2 – 2.5% across the board. Nizamabad up 2.4% to RS.9649 ($208) per MT; Karimnagar up 2.12% to Rs.9599 ($207) per MT, and Davangere up 2.29% to Rs.9370 ($203) per MT. On MCX as well, prices moved higher for Dec contract by 0.2% to Rs.9870 ($213) per MT. In the spot exchange (Nizamabad) prices moved up by 4.2% to Rs.9645 ($208) per MT, similar to NCDEX spot price at Nizamabad.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have moved up by 2.5% at the market yard to 10,350 ($223.7) per MT and prices are also higher than last year by 25.3%, Against maize prices are higher by 13.2%. Bajra is a staple for people in Rajasthan, parts of Uttar Pradesh and some parts of Haryana. With production down by 34% and no more crop in Rabi, the prices are likely to remain higher for the remaining year.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices corrected and are down by 19.3% to Rs.11110 ($240) per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 17.3% and also higher than maize by 19.1%. Sorghum is a staple for people in Maharashtra, parts of Kartanaka, Andhra Pradesh and with the production down by about 18%. With production targeted at 3.90 MMT in Rabi, the overall deficit of 11% will remain. With the demand of white sorghum as food and as health snack/food, increase in prices cannot be ruled out. As t he harvest was delayed, the stock arrivals have increased now, thus the prices are under pressure.

Barley prices moved lower by 20% to Rs.8400 ($181) per MT. The price is lower than last year by 10.3%. In the futures market, prices remained stable at Rs.9900 ($214) per MT for Dec contract and moved up for April contract by 1.42% to Rs.10650 ($230) per MT and lower for May by 0.75% to Rs.10510 ($227) per MT. In the spot market of Jaipur, prices are higher by 0.5% to Rs..9469 ($205) per MT.

Multi-Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) has launched the exchange of futures for physicals (EFP) transaction facility in 12 commodities. Only Chana (Chick Pea) and Wheat are offered in the facility from the agricultural commodities and if maize can be offered, it will certainly help the end users in India and lock the prices. An EFP transaction is an exchange of futures contracts for a physical commodity transaction between two market participants.

GOI has acknowledged a deficit in Pulses (3.6 MMT), sugar (7 MMT) and the food inflation for the week Nov 21, 2009 is up to 17.5% against last year. If one looks at the grains package, of all the food grains in the market, maize/corn is the cheapest at Rs.9200 – 11200 ($199 – 242) per MT depending on the station. While all other grains Wheat, Rice are higher. Wheat at Rs.15000 ($324) per MT and rice at Rs.35000 ($756) per MT in the retail market. For the people in rural belt, if corn is available cheaper than other grains, it will be used as food.

With rice production down, availability of rice is an issue and layer sector is likely to look at other grains and with Pearl Millet and sorghum availability poor, pressure will be on corn.

International markets move lower and accept biotech

In the US, price of Corn on CBOT was down by about 6% for the three contracts, Dec down 6% to $147 per MT, Mat down 6% to $152.9 per MT and May down 5.89% to $157 per MT. The FOB rates for gulf and PNW were indicated at $179-182 per MT and $185-182 per MT for Dec to Feb period. Sorghum is indicated higher than corn at $191-189 for the same period for FOB Gulf.

Last week, EU cleared some GM traits and this would possibly allow flow of Soybean Meal, DDGS and Corn Gluten Meal containing these traits into EU. Turkey has banned imports of ingredients containing GM traits, and this had caused prices of energy and protein ingredients to increase. But now the government has allowed imports of all those ingredients, which have been contracted. Turkey was importing GM commodities and traits that were approved in country of origin for food and feed were allowed. This had helped the industry keep its prices in check.

China is one of the largest importers of DDGS in the region and it is being used consistently in dairy, poultry and swine feeds. It helps in reducing the pressure on corn and also to SBM to some extent. DDGS prices in US are indicated $171 (FOB US Gulf) and CNF prices to SEA region are indicated at $240-246 per MT for 36% profat product. The demand is steady in the domestic as well as international markets and most feed manufacturers in the would are now tuned to using DDGS as part of the ingredient mix, which helps in keeping the price of feed in check, without compromising on the quality of feed.

In the freight markwt, prices were somewhat lower for the Gulf – Japan and PNW – Japan benchmark by $3 per MT to $69 and $41 per MT respectively.

Amit Sachdev

India Representative

U S Grains Council

Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse grain prices move lower - but for a short time

2009-11-30T09:41:00.002+05:30

Coarse grain prices move lower - but for a short time

Maize prices at the market yard moved lower by Rs.200 (2%) per MT to Rs.9300 range, but remained higher than last year by 15.7%. In Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Tamil nadu prices were up by 0.62%, 2% and 3% to Rs.8600, Rs.10,550 and Rs.8860 per MT respectively. In Karnataka and Maharashtra prices were stable at Rs.8400 per MT at the market yard. Gujarat average prices was close to Rs.9900 per MT, down 1.4%. Prices in Uttar Pradesh corrected at Rs.9233 per MT, down 15.3%. This could be an anomaly, as the trade informs that the average price at Mandi (market yard) is about Rs.9400 per MT (loose) and packed, ready to move maize would be close to Rs.10500 per MT. Delivered prices in North India and heading north, and maize is being delivered in Punjab and Haryana at Rs.11,200 per MT.

Average price of Nov 2009 was Rs.9333 per MT, about 15% higher than Nov 2008 and 2.7% higher than Oct 2009.

Reports also indicate that there are some quality issues maize in Karnataka (water damage), but the quantum may not be as big and limited area was affected due to rains.

In the futures market (NCDEX), all contracts were down, Dec down 0.3% to Rs.9860; Jan down 0.3% to Rs.10210 per MT; Feb down 0.65% 10550 per MT; Mar down 1.09% to Rs.10810 per MT. Experts believe that this could be due to the Dubai debacle as well. In the Spot market priced moved up, Nizamabad up 1.56% to Rs.9420; karimnagar up 5.22% to Rs.9399 per MT, while prices in Davangere were stable at Rs.9170 per MT. On MCX, Dec contract was up by 0.2% to Rs.9850 per MT and prices in Nizamabad Spot market was close to Rs.9250 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved lower by 3.2% to Rs.10090 per MT, but were higher than last year by 28%. Prices are higher than maize by 8%. Average price for Nov 2009 is Rs.10361 per MT, 38% higher than Nov 2008 and 9% higher than Oct 2009.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved down by 3.7% to Rs.13765 per MT, remained higher than last year by 35.6%. Prices are higher than maize by 32.5%. Average prices for Nov 2009 was Rs.13179 per MT, 45% higher than Nov 2008 and 10.45% higher than Oct 2009.

Barley prices added 13.8% to the tally to Rs.10480 per MT. For the first time is many weeks, barley prices are higher than last year's by 12.3%. Average price for Nov 2009 was Rs.9578 per MT, 3.2% higher than Nov 2008 and 22% higher than Oct 2009.

In the US, the harvest is going on, but is much delayed. Reports indicate 68% of the corn crop is harvest against 87% harvested last year. Sorghum harvest is much better at 75%, but is lower than last years 87%. Soybean harvest is only 3% short at 94% against last year's 97% harvest at this time of the year. This week was a short working week, due to Thankgiving Holiday and possibly by this week the harvest would move faster as farmers would like to put in the corn in storage.

On CBOT, prices gained, possible due to delayed harvest weaker dollar. Also as farmers are not selling currently, prices are reported to be higher. Dec up 1.58% to $156.36 per MT; Mar up 1.37% to $162.74 per MT; May contract up 1.68% to $166.92 per MT. FOB gulf is indicated at $186/190 per MT for Dec - April while FOB PNW is indicated at $210/214 per Mt for the same period. Sorghum (FOB US Gulf) was indicated at $195/197, 3.5 to 4% higher than corn. Argentinian and Brazilian corn is being offered at $175 and $188 per MT respectively on FOB basis.

DDGS prices were stable at $166/170 per MT (FOB US gulf), but with container prices moving up, delivered prices to the region may be moving up.

Food inflation in India is inching up day by day. Reports show almost 100% increase in retail prices of some of the staple food products, specially pulses (Dal), which provides protein to the Indian population. India is the largest consumer of sugar and its low production has created a shortage and retail prices are up to Rs.38 - 40 per Kg. Last year Sugar was selling at Rs.18 per kg in the retail market. With overall deficit in grain production and demand increasing, would Rabi be able to cover the loss in Khariff, possibly not, but there is hope.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Toxin levels in various feed ingredients - guidance from FDA

2009-11-23T11:32:00.003+05:30

In my last report (Nov 23, 2009), the level of Aflatoxin for poultry was mentioned at 300 PPB. My apologies, it is 20 PPB as per the guidance document of FDA. 300 ppb is for cottonseed meal for swine and poultry.

Detailed guidance documents can be found using the link below

www.ngfa.org/files/misc/Guidance_for_Toxins.pdf

https://www.msu.edu/~mdr/g1514.pdf

Amit Sachdev

Mixed calls for prices of coarse cereals

2009-11-23T09:43:00.001+05:30

Mixed calls for prices of coarse cereals

Maize prices moved up further at the market yard by 2.5% to Rs.9500 per MT. Prices are higher than last year at this point by 10.2%. The highest prices of yellow maize was quoted in Rajasthan at +10,000 per MT and for Red maize, it was in Gujarat at + Rs.10,000 per MT. Prices in Andhra Pradesh has been stable at Rs.8500 per Mt, while in Rajasthan and Tamil nadu prices moved little lower by 0.7% and 2% to Rs.10350 and Rs.8600 per Mt respectively. Prices in Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh moved up by 2.4% and 8% to Rs. 10080 and Rs.10900 per Mt at the market yard.

On NCDEX prices were mixed, while the Dec contract was down by 0.9% to Rs.9890, Feb contract was up by 1.62% to Rs.10620 per MT. January contract remained stable at Rs.10250 per MT. Mar contract closed at 10930 per MT. In the spot market, the price moved up in Karimnagar by 0.21% to Rs.8933 per MT, while in Nizamabad and Davangere prices remained stable at Rs.9275 and Rs.9160 per MT. On MCX , Dec contract closed 3.5% lower to Rs.9850 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved little lower by 1.1% to Rs.10450 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by almost 25% and against maize up by 9%.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved up by 24.8% this week to reach 14290 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 35% and against maize up by 33.6%.

Barley prices moved lower by 7.5% at the market yard to Rs.9225 per MT. The prices are lower than last year by 0.8%. In the futures market, prices moved lower across all contracts. Dec down 0.57% to Rs.10016 per MT; Apr down 1.42% to Rs.10400 per MT; May down 0.46% to Rs.10640 per MT. In the spot market (Jaipur) as well prices were down by 0.61% to Rs.9384 per MT.

On CBOT the prices were up slightly for the 3 contracts, Dec up 0.14% to $153.92 per MT; Mar up 0.34% to $160.22 per MT and May up 0.33% to $164.16 per MT. The increased prices are reflected in the indicative FOB values as well. FOB Gulf for Dec – Feb is indicated at $184/185 per MT and for PNW indicated at $203-211 per MT. Sorghum (FOB US Gulf) is indicated at $191/193, little higher than corn.

DDGS prices moved up slightly for Dec at $166, while Jan price was indicated at $160 per MT (FOB, US Gulf), CNF prices wee indicated at $240 for Dec and $246 for Jan 2010.

There are some reports of toxins in US Corn due to higher moisture levels and delayed harvest. The trade and endusers are cautious and are testing corn and co-products before shipping/using the same. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has set a maximum recommended level of toxins in different species of animals for trade and use.

Level for Afltoxin for poulry and dairy is set at 300 PPB and 20 PPB; Level for Fumonsin is set at 50 PPM and 15 PPM, while level for Vomitoxin have been set at 10 PPM and 5 PPM for the above species. FDA has also recommended levels of toxin containing ingredients in feed to limit the amount of toxin in the feed ration.

The freight rates have shown an increase in all sectors, Gulf-Japan benchmark up by $3.5 per MT to $73.5 per MT, while PNW-Japan up to $47 per MT. Argentina/Brazil – China freight is also indicated higher at $55-58 per MT for PANAMAX bulk shipments.

In India there is a major issue related to sugarcane prices, which is leading to delay it its harvest. The amended bill which is likely to be brought in the parliament on Monday will make sure that the differential in price F&RP (Fair and Remunerative price) and SAP (State Advised prices) will be paid by the sugar mills and not the state.

GOI also proposes to penalize oil companies, which are not blending ethanol in petrol at 5% level. With molasses production effected due to lower sugarcane production, this would be a major bottleneck in future as the demand is set to increase in the cattle feed sector.

Amit Sachdev

India Representative

U S Grains Council

usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse cereal prices remain strong

2009-11-14T07:19:00.003+05:30

Coarse cereal prices remain strong

Average maize prices remained stable at the market at Rs.9300 per MT. Prices are up against last year by 13.2 percent. Average prices in Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh were up by 1.5% and 5% respectively, while price in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu were down by 2%, 5% and 1.6% respectively.

The prices are moving down in some areas due to production/delivery pressure, which may be short lived.

On the futures market (NCDEX), prices were lower than last week, Nov down 3.4% to Rs.9525; Dec down 1.86% to Rs.9980; Jan down 3% to Rs.10235 and Feb down 3.5% to 10450. Mar contract closed at 10,800 per MT. In the spot market though prices in Karimnagar were up by 0.83% to Rs.8914 and Davangere up by 3.87% to Rs.9158 per MT. In Nizamabad, prices remained stable at Rs.9274 per MT.

On MCX which has two ongoing contracts, prices were stable at Rs.9950 per MT for Nov, while for Dec contract prices moved up by 0.74% to Rs.10210 per MT.

Pearl Millet prices have moved up by 1.6% to Rs.10550 per MT,. Price are higher than last year by 25.7%. Against maize, the prices are higher by 12.5%.

Sorghum prices were down by 13.4% to Rs..11450 per MT at the market yard, but were 20.6% higher than last year. Against maize, prices are higher by 19.2%. Arrivals in major markets of Maharashtra could be one reason for the prices to turn soft.

Barley prices moved lower this week by 4.7% for Dec contract to Rs.10074 per MT, also for April the prices moved down by 4.2% to Rs.10550 per MT. May contract closed at 10690 per MT. In the spot market (Jaipur) prices were down by 3.65% to Rs.9442 per MT.

On CBOT corn prices moved up by +6% for the three contracts. Dec up 6.3% to $153.69 per Mt; Mar up 6.68% to $159.69 per MT; May up 6.56% t0 $163.61 per MT. One of the reasons being attributed to increase in futures is the marginal decrease in production numbers given by USDA last week and also a slow harvest due to rains in US. (Only 37% of the corn crop has been indicated as harvested by Nov 8). With CBOT higher, FOB rates are also indicated to be up. US Gulf was indicated at $$184/191 per MT, while PNW was indicated at $202/212 for Nov - Feb window.

The freight rates for Gulf-PNW remained stable at $70 per MT, but PNW-Japan rates were up to $43 per MT. Argentina/Brazil to China was indicated at $53-55 per MT.

The new USDA report put the production of corn at 328.21 MMT, slightly lower than Oct report. Increased demand ans slightly lower production is the reason behind increased price indication of $127 - 151 per MT for the 2009/10 crop in US. Report also indicates that the world production is likely to be down to 789.73 MMT against Oct projection of 792.54 MMT.

Reports from china indicated a crop production of close to 144 MMT, about 10 MMT lower than the USDA estimate. China has a end stock of over 48 MMT and with the low production would China release additional stocks in the market to ease the supply situation.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
email: usgcindia@gmail.cm

Prices move up, first estimates confirm fears of lower production; GOI plans for a model code in food advertising

2009-11-07T09:55:00.003+05:30

Prices move up, first estimates confirm fears of lower production

Maize prices moved up again this week by 1% to reach Rs.9300 per MT. Prices are higher than last year

by 12.2%. While prices have been stable at Minimum Support Price (MSP) level in Andhra Pradesh, prices have move up in Rajasthan (up 10% to 10950 per MT) and Tamil nandu (4.5% to Rs;.8900 per MT) and were lower in Gujarat (3.8%, Rs.10040 per MT) and Uttar Pradesh (2.2% to Rs.9600 per MT).

In the futures market (NCDEX) prices have moved up by 2 – 4%. Nov and Dec contracts were up by 2% to Rs.9860 and Rs.10170 respectively. Jan contract was up by 3.3% to Rs.10210 per MT, while Feb was up by 4.3% to Rs.10830 per MT. In the spot market as well, prices moved up marginally in Nizamabad by 0.6% to Rs.9281 per MT; 0.8% in Karimnagar at 8840 per MT and 2.6% in Davangere at Rs.8816 per MT.

As per the first advance estimates for Khariff crop of 2009/10, maize production is expected at 12.61 MMT, down 9.28% from last year’s (2008/09), 13.90 MMT. The target for 2009/10 Khariff crop was fixed at 15.50 MMT. Possibly this is one reason for the prices moving up.

Prices of Pearl Millet (Bajra) moved up by 4.1% to Rs.10381 per MT and the prices are higher by 31.6% against last year. Prices are higher than maize by 10.4%. For the Khariff season of 2009/10, the production of Pearl Millet is expected at 5.83 MMT, down 33.98% from last year’s (2008/09) 8.83 MMT. The target for Khariff 2009/10 was fixed at 10 MMT

Sorghum (Jowar) prices are moved up by 13.1% to Rs.13200 per MT and against last year prices were higher by 31.2%. Prices remained higher than maize by 29.6%. The production of Sorghum in 2009/10, Khariff Season is expected to be 2.55 MMT, down 17.74% from last year’s Khariff production which was at 3.10 MMT. The target for 2009/10 Khariff crop was fixed at 4.10 MMT.

Barley prices have moved up by 8.9% this week to Rs.8650 per MT, but are lower than last year by 11.1%. GOI has increased the MSP for Barley for the Rabi Season by 10.29% (Rs.700 per MT) to Rs.7500 per MT. This is the biggest increase as MSP for wheat has been increased by Rs.200 per MT to Rs.11000 per MT, Gram by Rs.300 to Rs.17600 per MT.

In the futures market barley prices have moved up again this week. Dec contract was close to Rs10,580 per MT up 4.2%, while April contract was up 3.88% to Rs.11012 per MT. At the spot market in Jaipur prices moved up by 3.65% to Rs.9800 per MT.

As per the estimates, the overall loss of production for coarse cereals (maize, Sorghum, Pearl Millet, Ragi and Small Millets) is about 5.58 MMT, 19.69% lower than last year’s 28.34 MMT. The production is 9.89 MMT lower than the target fixed for Kahriff Coarse grain production (32.65 MMT). Will Rabi production be able to cover the loss in Khariff production, will be a question that would need to be answered in the next few weeks as the farmers plant the rabi crop.

On CBOT corn prices ended similar to last week, Dec $144.47 per MT; Mar $149.59 per MT and May $153.53 per MT. FOB values for Nov to Feb period for US Gulf ranged between $175-178 per MT and $200-201 per MT respectively.

DDGS demand in the domestic and export markets remained strong and poultry sector remained the biggest buyer. US gulf prices for DDGS were almost similar to last week Nov $163, Dec $160 and Jan $157. CNF prices in SEA region were indicated at $230-234 per Mt, due to the increase in freight costs.

For the bulk commodities, freight is strengthening and the benchmark rates for US Gulf Japan and PNW – Japan were indicated higher this week by $4 per Mt and $2.50 per MT to $70 and $39.50 per MT respectively. Agrentina – Brazil to China freight also ended $2 up against last week.

As the demand of grain is rising in the world market for food and feed, European Union (EU) has cleared types of biotech for food, feed, import and processing. These include YieldGard VT Pro (MON 89034) and YieldGard VT Rootworm/RR2 (MON 88017) and Herculex RW protection trait stacked with Roundup Ready Corn 2. With the new approvals, feed millers in EU will be able to import corn, DDGS and also Corn Glutten Meal/Feed from US containing these traits.

GOI plans for a model code in food advertising

The newly constituted Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) has set guidelines for the "Self Regulation in Food Advertisement". The draft code has been posted on the web and can be assesed on the FSSAI website (http://www.fssai.gov.in/).

The guidelines seeks to regulate the law relating to advertising and unfair trade practices in the food sector. There are many instances when labels and advertisements tend to provide misleading information to the public/consumers and charge higher for the same.

Honourable Supreme Court has also said that companies selling products under false clains should be prosecuted.

Amit Sachdev

India Representative,

U S Grains Council

E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse grains prices show strength; Food grain production to be hit

2009-10-31T07:31:00.003+05:30

Coarse grains prices show strength

Maize prices moved up again this week by 1.3% to Rs.9200 per MT on an average at market yard. The prices are higher than last year by 6.8%. At the state level, while prices are stable at MSP (Rs.8400 per MT) in Andhra Pradesh, they have risen steadily in Gujarat by 4.5% to Rs.10450 per MT; Rajasthan by 5.3% to Rs.9930 per MT; Uttar Pradesh by 7.6% to Rs.9850 per MT. Prices were down by 5.9% in Tamil Nadu to Rs.8550 per MT. In Maharashtra markets the prices was reported at Rs.8700 per MT. Reports are that arrivals have started. Punjab local is available at Rs.9900 per MT. Quality issues have been reported at some locations where wet maize is in the market. The average price of maize for Oct 2009 was 9084 per MT, 1.5% lower than Sept 2009, but 10.84% higher than Oct 2008.

On the futures market prices have moved up by 2 – 4%. For the closest month Nov, prices moved up by 2.2% to Rs.9660 per MT; Dec up 2.7% to 9770 per MT; Jan up 3.4% to Rs.10210 per MT and Feb up 4.2% to Rs.10380 per MT. In the spot market the price in Nizamabad was up by 2% to Rs.9225, but in Karimnagar and Davangere prices moved lower by 0.4% and 0.8% to Rs.8770 per MT and 8592 per MT respectively.

Pearl Millet prices have risen 14% this week to Rs.9950 per MT. Arrivals are good, but quality of the grain is an issue in Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. Against last year, pries are up by 23%. Pearl Millet can be used in dairy/poultry rations, but the current price is higher than maize by 7.6%. making it difficult for the farmers to use the same. Average prices of Pearl Millet in Oct 2009 was Rs.9491 per MT, 4.85% higher than Sept 2009 and 26% higher than Oct 2008.

Sorghum price moved lower by 6% at the market yard to Rs.11680 per MT against last week, but remained higher than last year by 13.5%. Against maize the price is higher by 21%. The average price of Sorghum for Oct 2009 was Rs.11932 per MT, 1.5% lower than Sept 2009, but 24.8% higher than Oct 2008.

Barley prices have also moved up by 1.2% this week to Rs.7933 per MT. Prices remained lower than last year by 16.7%. The average prices of barley at the market yard for Oct 2009 was Rs.7856 per MT, similar to Sept 2009 price and 16.74% lower than Oct 2008 prices.

On the futures market prices moved up by 6 – 7%. For Dec contract the prices are up by 6.4% to 10150 per MT and for April up by 7.4% to Rs.10600 per MT. In the spot market the prices moved up by 10% to Rs.9454 per MT.

Corn prices ended lower this week as the weather is expected to be dry next week and harvest will proceed. Near month contract for Dec was down by 7.6% to $144.55 per MT. For Mar contract prices were down 7% to $149.59 per MT and for May the prices were down by 6.6% to $153.37 per MT. The FOB value too was down and indicated at $175-177 per MT for Nov – Feb for US Gulf, while for FOB PNW, prices were indicated at $200 per MT for the same window. Sorghum prices on FOB basis US gulf were indicated at $177/180 per MT.

DDGS FOB US Gulf prices are indicated at $ 166 for Nov; 4160 for Dec and $155 for Jan delivery. The reason being attributed to the drop is prices is the good quantum of corn and lower prices this week. The demand remains strong and the CNF prices are indicated at $225 per MT for SEA region.

The freight markets are also getting strengthened with US Gulf-Japan prices moving up by a dollar to $66 per MT. Argentina-Brazil to China freight rates have also been reported higher at $49-51 per MT.

Food grain production to be hit

Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has projected that the Khariff Food Grain production for 2009/10 will be down to 98 MMT against 117.7 MMT last year. USDA has also projected that the rice production for the year 2009/10 will be down by 16-17 MMT.

In 2008/09, as per the 4^th Advance Estimate by GOI, the food grain production in Khariff for Rice 84.58 MMT; Pulses 4.78 MMT, Pearl Millet (Bajra) 8.83 MMT; Sorghum (Jowar) 3.10 MMT; Maize 13.90 MMT; Ragi 2.06 MMT and Small Millets 0.45 MMT, making a total of 117.7 MMT. Rice constituted 71.86% of the total food grain package and if the production is down by 20% against last year to 68 MMT, as per estimates it would be 69.38% of the Khariff Food Grain production. The rest of food grains in 2008/09 totaled 33.12 MMT and in 2009/10 the total is expected to be 30 MMT, down 9.42% against last year. Which one will shall bear the brunt of the loss is still being counted, but there is no doubt that production of almost all food grains (pulses, coarse cereals) is hit. Reports indicate losses in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan due to drought, while in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka the loss is due to floods and excessive rains.

Amit Sachdev

India Representative

U S Grains Council

E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Higher prices of maize, reflect buying spurt; Prices in US move up due to wet weather concerns

2009-10-24T10:28:00.001+05:30

Higher prices of maize, reflect buying spurt; Prices in US move up due to wet weather concerns

Maize prices moved up at the market yard by 1% to Rs.9100 per MT range. Arrivals have started in almost all areas and prices are reported to be higher in all states except Uttar Pradesh, where they are down by 1.3% to Rs.9150 per MT. Prices in Andhra Pradesh moved up by 0.3% to 8400 per MT; Gujarat up by 4.4% to Rs.10,000 per MT; Karnataka up 2.6% to Rs.8650 per MT; Rajasthan up by 2.3% to Rs.9430 per MT and Tamil nadu up by 8.2% to 9088 per MT. This is for loose material at the market yard. The average price is higher than last year by 11.3%.

In the futures market (NCDEX), the prices for the four contracts moved up by 3 – 5%, which is substantial in the harvest time. Nov up 3.1% to Rs.9445 per MT; Dec up 4.5% to R.9700 per MT; Jan 2010 up by 5.37% to Rs.9870 per MT and Feb 2010 up by 4% to Rs.9960 per MT. In the spot markets prices have remained more or less stable with Nizamabad at Rs.9045 per MT; Karimnagar at Rs.8813 per MT and Davangere at Rs.8665 per MT.

Pearl Millet (BAJRA) prices moved lower at the market yard as arrivals have been very strong in the northern region. Prices moved lower by 8.9% to Rs.8760 per MT. Reports indicate that the quality may not be as good due to lower rainfall in some areas and also grain in shown black spots due to rainfall during the final harvest stages. Price is 9.1% higher than last year and about 4% lower than maize at the market yard (on average).

Sorghum (JOWAR) prices moved lower by 2.5% this week to Rs.12435 per MT. The prices are 25.3% higher than last year and almost 27% higher than maize at the market yard.

Barley prices have moved up by 1.8% this week. Prices however are lower than last year by 18%. Report are that new breweries are being set up as the demand of beer is increasing. The total beer market in growing by almost 15% per annum, which is making foreign brands look towards India and make investments to tap the Indian market.

In the futures trade (NCDEX) prices have moved up by 7.3% for the Dec contract to Rs.9540 per MT. For April 2010 as well prices were higher by 5.9% to Rs.9870 per MT. In the spot market (Jaipur), prices showed an upward trend by about 4% to Rs.8591 per MT. In the US, prices of barley on FOB basis US gulf is indicated at $175 to $185 per MT for Nov – Jan period.

Corn prices in the US have been fueled due to wet weather condition. Prices are up by almost $10 per MT on CBOT and that is also reflected in FOB values and the same is the case with DDGS prices.

On CBOT Dec corn closed at $156.52 per MT, up 6.6%; Mar corn was up 6.5% to $161.01 per MT while May corn was up 6.33% to $164.24 per MT. FOB US Gulf prices are indicated at $187 per MT for Oct’09 –Feb’10 while FOB PNW is indicated at $211/212 for the same period, reflecting a $10 per MT increase against last week’s prices. Freight rates have also shown an increasing trend. Benchmark Gulf-Japan and PNW-Japan freight rates have increased by almost 10% in one week to $65 – 65 per MT and $37 respectively. One reason could be the increase in crude prices, but then the demand for export is also higher. Argentina/Brazil – China freight rates have also gone up by almost 10% to $48 – 50 per MT.

DDGS (Dried Distillers Grains with solubles) is increasingly finding space in the livestock rations (poultry, dairy, fish, swine) across the globe. Current estimates put the figure at 4-9 – 5 MMT of DDGS export from US in 2009 (Jan – Dec). For the period Jan – August 2009, exports are up by 14%, the major change being China where imports are up to 93 TMT (+1947.12%). Imports by Thialand up by 85%, Philippines up by 22.8%; Korea up by 65.74%; Indonesia up by 93.4%. As per reports from USDA, Bangaldesh has imported trial batched totaling 1334 MT of DDGS during the period and all has been sold/consumed in Bangaldesh.

The current prices are higher, reflecting the change in corn prices in the US. FOB value, US gulf is indicated at $187 per MT for Nov and $179 per MT for Dec. CNF SEA region is indicated at $222 – 225 per MT for Nov, but lower at $218 per MT for Jan 2010.

Amit Sachdev,

India Representative,

US Grains Council.

Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Commodity prices move up

2009-10-18T12:21:00.004+05:30

Commodity prices move up

This was a festival week, with most people getting ready to celebrate Deepawali, the Festival of Lights at the end of the week. Hopes that Indian economy is back on the path of recovery, Industrial production has revived, malls, markets were full of people buying gifts for themselves and friends. The stock market moved up and so did the commodity prices.

Wishing every one a happy and a prosperous Deepawali.
May the festive lights sparkle your life with loads of love, laughter, luck, happiness, prosperity and wisdom to take on the world with new energy.

Maize prices have been more or less stable at the market yard on pan India average at about Rs.9000 per MT. GOI has not taken out any estimates as yet for the Khariff 2009/10 crop. Prices are higher than last year by 10.2%. In the states, except Gujarat where prices have moved up this week by 1.6% to Rs.9580 per MT at the market yard, prices is all states have shown a downward trend. Andhra Pradesh, down by 2.6% to Rs.8400 per MR; Rajasthan down 3.1% to Rs.9220 per MT; Uttar Pradesh down 2.1% to Rs.9270 per MT; Karnataka down 4.8% to Rs.8430 per MT. Prices in Maharashtra were close to Rs.9060 per MT,w hile in Tamil nadu were stable at Rs.8400 per MT.

On NCDEX the moved up for Oct contract by 1.7% to Rs.9160 per MT and 4 other new contracts also started with Nov Rs.9160 per MT; Dec Rs9280 per MT; jan 9370 per MT and FEb Rs.9570 per MT. The higher prices are indication enough that prices are likely to remain firm or move higher. In the spot markets as well the prices showed an upward trend by the end of this week. While prices in Nizamabad were stable at Rs.9066 per MT, prices in Karimnagar were up 0.5% to Rs.8848 per MT and Davangere up 0.3% to Rs.8727 per Mt. Trade reports indicate that some volumes of maize have been contracted for supplies to North India (Delhi and around) for Rs.10200 - 10700 per MT (Rake delivery).

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved up by about 1.5% this week to Rs.9600 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 25.3% and higher than maize by 6.3%. In most of the areas of Haryana, parts of Rajasthan the crop has been harvested or is being harvested and left in the fields to dry. In some cases the grains has already reached the market.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices have moved up by 17.4% by the end of this week. Prices were higher than last year by 26.6% and 29.3% higher than maize. There is speculation that Sorghum crop has been damaged in Maharashtra and part of karnataka and this is going to lead to severe shortage for those who grow Sorghum for their own subsistence. While teh grain is used as food, the dry plant is fodder for the animals.

Barley prices moved lower than last week by 3.2% to Rs.7700 per MT. Prices are lower than last year by 27%. The rabi sowing will start in areas of Rajasthan and Haryana soon after dewali (festival of lights).

On NCDEX while prices for the close month Oct were down by 0.8% to RS.8420 per MT, Dec contract was up by 1% to Rs.8890 per Mt and Apr up by 2.4% to Rs.9320 per MT. In teh spot market at jaipur, prices remained stable at Rs.8260 per MT.

On CBOT for the three most close contracts Dec 2009, Mar 2010 and May 2010 the prices moved up by 2.4 - 3.2% as harvest is delayed and some freezing in corn belt has been reported. Dec corn closed at $146.84 per MT, up 3.15%; Mar up 2.4% to $151.17 per MT and May up 2.46% to $154.48%.

FOB prices for Gulf and PNW were also reported to be higher at $177/178 and $201/202 per Mt respectively for the period Oct-Feb. Sorghum prices FOB US Gulf were reported to be close to corn at $179/180 per MT.

DDGS FOB values (US Gulf) were reported at $148/149 per MT and CNF prices for the SEA region were close to $216/220 per MT. China is a major buyer of DDGS and so are other nations. Poultry and dairy farmers are finding it a cheaper source of protein and energy. As the harvest in US is also delayed, cattle, poultry and swine farmers are also using more of DDGS, thus increasing the demand locally. The prices in midwest, where most of the US corn is grown and ethanol plants are there, DDGS is priced at $120 per MT ($110 per short ton - 910 kgs), FOB Plant basis.

Reports indicate that Argentina may not be exporting more corn this year. The first of the export licenses for 400 TMT was issued recently. Brazil on the other side is exporting more corn and the Government may issue more licenses for another 500 TMT. Current prices were close to $174 per MT (FOB).

The freight rates moved up slightly this week with US Gulf - Japan up to $59 per MT, PNW - Japan up to $33.50 per MT and Argentina-Brazil to China up to $43/44 per MT.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

No major effect on prices due to floods; More corn expected in USA and demand set to increase in India

2009-10-10T16:10:00.004+05:30

No major effect on prices due to floods

Maize prices moved up slightly by about 1% to Rs.9022 per MT at the market yard. Against last year the prices were higher by 8.6%. Prices were down in Andhra Pradesh by 4% to Rs.8600 per MT; Gujarat by 3.8% to Rs.9400 per MT; and Tamil Nadu by 1.7% to Rs.8400 per MT. Prices moved up by 2% in Karnataka to Rs.8800 per MT; 2.2% in Rajasthan to Rs.9500 per MT and 1.5% in Uttar Pradesh to Rs.9500 per MT.

In the futures market though the prices were down by 1% to Rs.9000 per MT. In the Spot markets in Nizamabad and Karimnagar prices were up by 1.7% to Rs.9073 per MT and 0.1% to Rs.8800 per MT respectively. In Davangere the prices were down by 0.6% to Rs.8700 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have moved up this week by 2.5% to Rs.9500 per MT at the market yard. Prices are higher than last year by 21.6% and higher than maize by 4.7%. In the northern market though the prices are lower than maize by 1.5% and the new crop being harvested is being used in poultry rations in some areas.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices have moved lower by 14.3% this week to Rs.10900 per MT, but remained higher than last year by 17.3%. Against maize the prices were higher by 16.9%.

Barley prices also were lower than last week by 9% to Rs.8000 per MT. Against last year, the prices were lower by 20.5%. In the futures market, all three contracts moved lower, Oct down 2.92% to Rs.8492 per MT; Dec down 3.59% to Rs.8810 per MT and April down 2.13% to Rs.9150 per MT. In the spot market, Jaipur prices moved lower by 0.6% to Rs.8255 per MT.

Last week saw unprecedented rains and floods in the deccan penninsula, extending from Goa to Vijaywada covering the states of Goa, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Press reports indicate about 0.9 t0 1 Mill hac, and crops like Paddy, Sorghum, Maize, Pulses etc have fallen victim to the rains and floods. Some experts have put the damage at 1 - 1.3 MMT for maize. Press reports have indicated 2.5 Mill hac of land effected by floods in Karnataka alone and paddy crop is expected to be down by 3.0 MMT in Andhra Pradesh due to drought conditions and now rains and floods.

Corn prices in CBOT made huge gains this week and prices were up by almost 7 - 8%. Dec up 8.2% to $142.35 per MT; Mar up 8.37% to $147.62 per MT and May up 7.82% at $150.77 per MT. The FOB gulf prices have also gained and are up to $174/176 per MT for the period Oct'09 to Feb'10. FOB PNW is up to $197/200 per MT for the same period.

Freight rates too have moved up as the economy responds. Gulf-Japan rate is up to $58.50 per MT, while PNW-Japan rate is up to $32 per MT.

More corn expected in USA and demand set to increase in India

The latest USDA report (WASDE) has put the corn production in US at 330.6 MMT a 1 MMT increase over Sept 2009 projection. The 2009 crop is expected to be 7.5% higher than 2008, when the crop was 307.36 MMT. The main reason for higher production is the producivity, which is expected to be 4.17 tons per acre. The Sept 2009 projection was 4.11 tons per acre.

The report also increases the total use of corn slightly to 330.96 MMT and that in due to increase in Food, Seed and Industrial category. The ending stocks are expected to be up tp 43.52 MMT against Sept 2009 projection of 41.53 MMT.

The world production of corn in 2009 is put at 792.54 MMT, slighly lower than the Sept projection of 794.06 MMT. The total use is expected at 803.14 MMT, up from Sept projection of 799.62 MMT. The world ending stocks are expected to be 136.25 MMT. In 2008 the world production of corn is estimated at 791.28 and total use 774.72 MMT. the ending stocks in 2008 were expected at 146.84 MMT.

China's production is expected to fall to 155 MMT from sept proejction of 160 MMT and its use is expected to be higher at 159 MMT against earlier estimates of 158 MMT. The ending stocks will be close to 48.64 MMT, down from earlier projected 54.64 MMT.

India's total demand for the end user sectors is expected at 12.46 MMT including Poultry at 7.87 MMT, starch at 1.87 MMT; Livestock at 2.69 MMT and Brewery at 0.3 MMT. The food use of corn in India is expected at 4.87 MMT. Thus the total demand for corn would be 17.6 MMT from Oct 2009 to Sept 2010. This demand does not take into account any export and seed use of corn. Farmers normally keep corn seeds and use the same in the fields.

With Khariff corn being effected due to drought and then by excess rains and floods, rabi corn has to be enough to cover the loss in Khariff as per some experts and trade.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Except maize, all other coarse grain prices move up; New corn products in the market

2009-10-03T22:52:00.004+05:30

Expect maize, all other coarse grain prices move up

This week was a 3 day trade week, Monday was a holiday on account of Duserra while Friday was a holiday on account of Gandhi Jayanti.

Maize prices were down about 3.2% this week to Rs.9000 per MT at the market yard. Prices remained higher than last year by about 9%. The average price for Sept 2009 was Rs.9220 per MT, about 8.4% higher than Sept 2008 and 03% lower than Aug 2009. Prices in almost all states were down except in Andhra Pradesh where prices moved up by 6.2% to Rs.9000 per MT. Prices in Gujarat down 5.6% to Rs.9500 per MT; Maharashtra down 1.6% to Rs.9000 per MT; Rajasthan down 2.6% to Rs.9300 per MT; Tamil nadu down 0.5% to Rs.8600 per MT; Uttar Pradesh down 6.2% Rs.9300 per MT. Prices in Karnataka remained stable at Rs.8700 per MT.

In the futures market (NCDEX) prices moved up for Oct 2009 delivery to Rs.9100 per MT. Prices in Nizamabad were down 0.6% to Rs.8920 per MT; Davangere down 0.78% to Rs.8751 per MT and prices in Karimnagar were up by 0.6% to 8790 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were up this week by 3.5% to Rs.9230 per MT. New arrival of pearl Millet have started in Haryana. Prices are higher than last year by 21.2%. The prices against maize are higher by 3.1%. Average prices in Sept 2009 was Rs.9014 per MT, 26.2% higher than Sept 2008, but 0.25% lower than Aug 2009.

Prices of Sorghum (Jowar) moved up higher by 31.7% this week to Rs.12680 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 20.7%. Prices are higher than maize by 29.5%. The average price of Sorghum in Sept 2009 was Rs.12118, 25% higher than Sept 2008, but about 9% lower than Aug 2009.

Barley prices moved up by 22.3% to Rs.8730 per MT. Prices were down from last year by 6.8%. Average price in Sept 2009 was Rs.7885 per MT, 17% lower than Sept 2008 and down by 4.5% against Aug 2009.

In the futures market the prices for Oct 2009 delivery was down by 0.5% to Rs.8750, Fpr Dec dprices down by 0.24% to Rs.9140 per MT; Apr 2010 delivery up 1% to Rs.9300 per MT. In the spot market (Jaipur), prices were up by 0.26% to Rs.8300 per MT.

On CBOT, corn prices moved up for both Dec 2009 and Mar 2010 delivery by 5.29% and 0.46% to $131.56 per MT and $136.21 per MT. May 2010 delivery prices were quoted at $139.83 per MT. FOB value (US gulf) was indicated at $163 per Mt for Oct/Nov/Dec, while FOB PNW was indicated at $194/195 for the same period.

DDGS prices (FOB US Gulf) have more or less remained stable at $144/145 per MT for Oct/Nov/Dec period. CNF values for the SEA region were indicated at $210 – 216 per MT. The total exports for the period Jan – July 2009 from US are 2.614 MMT, up about 7% against last year same time period. Some major buyers in SEA region include China (+34 TMT), Bangaldesh, Philippines (+64 TMT), Vietman (+113 TMT). In all these countries use of DDGS has helped reduce cost of production of meat, milk and eggs and has assisted in taming the rate of inflation. In the US too, the increased production and sage of DDGS is expected. As per reports US is likely to produce 43.47 billion liters of Ethanol in calendar year 2009.

Without the use of alternative protein and energy sources in India it will be difficult to reduce the cost of production of meat, milk and eggs. Molasses, as a source of energy is used extensively in cattle feed is priced at Rs.11500 per MT feed mill delivery. GOI is thinking of reducing the excise duty on molasses to reduce the cost of cattle feed and the burden on the farmers.

New corn products in the market

Corn is a source of energy specially for poultry and dairy. School of Nutrition of the Philippine Women’s University (PWU) has developed the energy bar from corn for physically active individuals. The energy bar will be made from white flint corn grits (why not yellow). Corn due to its high Amylose content would be a good meal, similar to corn flakes.

Energy bars in India have found a niche and quite a few people who are on the move prefer to consume energy bars not available in India and made indigenously. Using corn as a source of energy will be more feasible and healthy.

Amit Sachdev

India Representative

U S Grains Council

email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Trendline, prices of coarse cereals move up, new target fixed for foodgrain production; The new germplasm for cattle in India

2009-09-26T10:39:00.004+05:30

Trendline, prices of coarse cereals move up, new target fixed for foodgrain production

Maize prices remained stable in India on an average at Rs.9300 per MT at the market yard. Prices are higher by 8% against last year. Prices were down in Maharashtra 2% to Rs.9100; Rajasthan 5% to Rs.9550; Tamil Nadu 1.5% to Rs.8600 per MT. In Gujarat the prices remained stable, while in Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh prices moved up by 3.7% to Rs.10000 per MT and 1% to Rs.8430 per MT respectively at the market yard.

On the futures market, only one contract is being traded Oct 2009 and the price was up by 1.4% to Rs.9045 per MT. While in the spot markets the prices moved lower, Nizamabad down 0.76% to Rs.8975 per MT; Karimnagar down 1.24% to Rs.8739 per MT; and Davangere down 0.4% Rs.8820 per MT.

Pearl Millet prices were up by 1% to Rs.8920 per MT and were higher than last year by 20%. Prices were down by 3.6% against maize. Due to less rainfall in areas of Rajasthan, Haryana, though Pearl Millet has been sown and in some areas harvest has already been done the coverage is not good and production may not be upto the mark.

Sorghum prices as per the information available dipped by 27.6% to Rs.9600 range, but are still higher than last year by 5.6% and 4.1% higher than maize prices at the market yard, Even though the prices were down on an average, prices in Gujarat and Tamil nadu were close to Rs.11300 – 12000 per MT at the market yard. Target of Rabi sorghum has been set at 3.9 MMT for 2009/10.

Barley prices have moved up by 2.8% to Rs.7140 per MT. prices are lower than last year by 34.6%. Overall in the futures as well as the spot markets, the prices were lower than last week. Oct down 0.6% to Rs.8790 per Mt, Dec down 0.75% to Rs.9160 per MT; April down 1% to Rs.9200 per T. In the Jaipur spot market the price was down by 0.6% to Rs.8282 per MT. Target for barley production in 2009/10 has been set at 1.55 MMT. Prices of feed Markey dropped significantly in US to $165/170 per MT FOB US Gulf.

As per the recent report from IMD, the overall deficit of rainfall for the period Jun 1 to 23 Sept have moved up to 22% an increase of 1%. For the period, meteorological division of West UP and Telangana have a deficit of 42% and 41% respectively. While the West Rajasthan and Eastern UP have a deficit of 39 and 38% respectively. Gujarat Region, east Madhya Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Vidharbha, Chattisgarh, Coastal AP, Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam Meghalaya, Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura (NMMT) and Arunachal Pradesh, all have a deficit ranging from 25% to 33%. Even though NMMT, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam Meghalaya received excess rainfall for the period Sept 17 – 23, 2009, the deficit still remains.

At the district level 9% have received excess rainfall, against 31% last year, 35% have received normal rainfall against 47% last year, 49% received deficient rainfall against 21% last year and 7% received scanty rainfall against 1% last year.

At the recently concluded Rabi conference GOI has set a target to produce 8 MMT of more food grains in Rabi season to offset the shortfall that may be there in Khariff. Wheat increase land by 0.5 Mill hac and additional production of 2 MMT; Rice additional land of 1.2 – 1.5 Mill hac and additional production of 3.4 – 4 mill hac; Pulses, additional land of 1.5 mill hac and production enhancement by 1.0 MMT; oilseeds additional land by 1 mill hac and leading to additional production of 1.2 MMT; additional 1 mill hac under coarse cereals (Maize, sorghum and pearl millet) and additional production of 1.5 MMT.

The strategy for enhancing rabi production would include bridging the gap between potential and present productivity levels through integrated nutrients management, zero tillage, use of improved varieties and treated seeds.

On CBOT corn was stable for Dec contract and was 4.17% higher for March contract to $135.58 per MT. The FOB values of corn for US Gulf and PNW have also gone up to $164 per MT and $196/198 per MT respectively for Oct – Dec window.

DDGS prices have moved up this week on higher demand domestically and also lower supplies as reports suggest that few of the ethanol plants are close for annual maintenance. The price are indicate at $140-144 per MT FOB US Gulf and the CNF value for SEA region was indicated at $210 – 220 per MT. The freight market is down at at least $2 per MT for Gulf-Japan and PNW-Japan sector. Even Argentina/Brazil – China rates are down to $41/42 per MT.

The big question this week was, would china import corn? Experts are of the opinion that china has the demand and the production is down by atleast 10%, but the stockpiles are there and the government is likely to release more corn into the market. But the prices continue to be higher.

The new germplasm for cattle in India

In the most recent development, GOI has allowed import of sexed semen into India. The sexed semen use gives a guarantee of at least 90% females as against 50% female calves in normal semen. While the number of female calves corn may be more, but the conception rate is compromised, but it is a fair compromise as farmers do not want any males and the female calf born will enhance the productivity in the next generation and net take home for the farmer. The new guidelines out in July 2009 have made sure that farmers can utilize the new technologies that are in use in developed nations.

Bovine germplasm imports are on the restricted list and farmers in Punjab got together under the banner of Progressive Dairy Farmers Association (PDFA) and imported new genetics from USA for use at their farms. Thanks to GOI, Department of AH and the state government, farmers now will be able to enhance the productivity of animals in the next generation. Even though the imported semen is expensive, the value addition will be much greater and the increased productivity will more than cover the cost of inputs. The enhanced productivity would need increased use of balanced feed and fodder, but will also increase the returns to the farmer in the long run. The new germplasm is tested free of exotic diseases, genetic disorders as per the GOI protocol and guidelines, before it is allowed to be imported and used in the country.

Increasing productivity is one way to get people back on the dairy production and generate employment avenues in the rural areas.

Amit Sachdev

India representative

U S Grains Council

E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Mixed bag for commodity prices, poultry prices lower

2009-09-19T10:03:00.003+05:30

Mixed bag for commodity prices, poultry prices lower

Maize prices moved lower by about 0.7% at the market yard to Rs.9290 per MT. Against last year the prices were higher by abut 8%. Prices across the country moved lower in almost all markets, Andhra Pradesh down 2% to Rs.8370 per MT; Gujarat down 1% to Rs.10056 per MT; Karnataka down 8% to Rs.8875 per MT; Rajasthan down 3.4% to Rs.10050 per MT; Uttar Pradesh down 0.8% to Rs.9590 per MT. It was only in Tamil Nadu that prices were reported to be up by 1% to Rs.8736 per MT.

In the futures market the price was stable for one contract (Oct) at Rs.8920 per MT. While prices at Karinmagar and Nizamabad were down by 1.4% to Rs.8850 per MT and Rs.9044 per MT respectively, prices in Davangere were up by 1.5% to Rs.8860 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were down by 0.8% to Rs.8840 per MT, about 13.6% higher than last year. Prices were about 5% lower than maize at the market yard.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices were up by 2% this week to Rs.13300 per MT. the prices were 29% higher than last year and 30% higher than maize.

Barley prices in the market yard were down by 16% to Rs.6942 per MT. Prices were down by 37% against last year. Barley prices in US were stable T $185 per MT, FOB US Gulf.

In the futures market as well, prices were down for October contract by 1.8% to Rs.8848 per MT. Dec contract was stable at Rs.9230 per MT. April contract was up by 1.6% to Rs.9300 per MR. At the Jaipur market, the price was down by 1.6% to Rs.8336 per MT.

On CBOT for the two contracts Dec and Mar prices were down by about 0.8% to $124.95 and $130.15 per MT respectively. FOB US Gulf is indicated at $156-161 per MT for Oct – February, while FOB PNW is indicated at $179/183 per MT. Freight rates are more or stable USGulf- Japan, PNW Japan sector as last week.

DDGS prices moved a little higher $138-147 per MT FOB US Gulf due to higher domestic as well as overseas demand. The CNF prices were close to $201-209 per MT for SEA region. This is a normal trend for the prices of DDGS to move up during the fall and winter season. CGM the source of protein in the US is indicated at $610 per MT US Gulf.

For the period 10^th Sept to 16^th Sept the rainfall has been deficient by 41%, and the overall deficiency is up one percent to 21% for the period Jun 1 – Sept 16, 2009.

There are reports that the poultry (live chicken) prices are down in the wholesale market, while the cost of production is much higher. With the current cost of Hatching Egg at Rs.14 each the prices of Chick at Rs.20/22 each, feed cost at Rs.16/17 per kg, the cost of production of a kg of live chicken is Rs.46 – 50. This may be a temporary phenomenon and as soon the hindu festival season is over the demand will increase and prices would be back on track. But till that time, farmers are losing money.

Amit Sachdev

India representative

U S Grains Council

usgcindia@gmail.com

Prices move up in India; Second largest corn crop expected in US

2009-09-14T07:10:00.002+05:30

Prices move up in India; Second largest corn crop expected in US

Maize prices moved up by about 1% at the market yard to Rs.9350 per MT on an average. Prices were higher than last year by about 7%. Average prices were higher in almost all production centers like Andhra Pradesh, up 3% tp Rs.8550 per MT; Gujarat up 3% to Rs.10166 per MT; Karnataka up 3.4% to Rs.9650 per MT; Mahrashtra up 2.3% to Rs.9300 per MT, Tamil Nadu up 0.7% to Rs.8640 per MT and Uttar Pradesh up 0.8% to Rs.9675 per MT. It was only in Rajasthan that the prices moved lower by 1% to Rs.10,400 per MT.

In the futures market, prices were down for the two contracts Sept down 1.6% to Rs.9430 per MT; Oct down 0.5% to Rs.8910 per MT. In the spot markets as well prices were sightly lower than last week. Nizamabad down 1.2% to Rs.9171 per MT; Karimnagar down 0.5% to Rs.8979 per MT and Davangere was up 2.2% to Rs.8725 per MT.

Pearl Millet price was down 2.7% at the market yard to Rs.8900 per MT, but remained higher than last year by 16.6%. Against maize price price were lower by 5%. For the Khariff season, Bajra has been planted on 6.89 Mill hac against 7.32 Mill hac in 2008/09. The land under Pearl Millet is lower than the normal area of 9.1 Mill Hac.

Sorghum prices moved up by 9.3% at the market yard to Rs.13050 per MT, about 26% higher than last year and 28.3% higher than maize. Area under sorghum for 2009/10 Khariff is 2.87 mill hac, slightly higher than 2.80 mill hac planted last year, but lower than the normal area of 4.2 Mill hac.

Barley prices at the market yard moved lower bt about 1% to Rs.8270 per MT and were lower than last year by 11.2%. In the futures markettoo, prices were lower. Sept down 1.5% to R.8720 per MT; Oct down 0.7% to Rs.9010 per MT and Dec up 0.3% to Rs.9252 per Mt. Apr contract was quoted at Rs.9150 per MT. In the jaipur spot market, prices were down by 0.5% to Rs.8470 per MT.

In the last one week Sep 3 - 9, 2009, the overall rainfall has been 21% higher than the average and almost the whole country has received the rainfall, which has provided much needed moisture to the soil. The rainfall is good for not only Khariff crops but also the Rabi crops that will be planted in Oct/Nov 2009. The overall deficit on rainfall is down to 20% for the period Jun 01 to Sept 09, 2009.

On CBOT the prices moved up by almost 5% for the near month contract. Sept $123.77 per MT, up 4.8%; Dec $125.97, up 4.57%; Mar $131.21 per MT, up 4.16%. FOB prices US Gulf were higher at $157/158 per MT for the period Sept/Nov 2009. For FOB PNW the prices were $188/189 per MT. Sorghum was indicated at $155 per MT (FOB US Gulf).

As per the new WASDE report, US is expecting a second highest coen crop of 13 billion bushels (330 MMT), and the productivity is expected at 4.11 MT/Acre. China on the other hand is facing a drough situation and the production is expected at 160 MMT. Trade is of the opinion that the production would be 150 MMT. The Chinese GOI has sold 1.86 MMT of corn in the open market and more will be sold in the near future. Over all corn production has been estimated lower and the world ending stocks have also been cut by 2 MMT.

DDGS prices (FOB US Gulf) were indicated at $133 - 148 per MT for the period Sept - Dec 2009, while the CNF price SEA region were indicated at $191 - 207 per Mt for the same period. The demand for DDGS is rising and the most recent buyers in the list is China. Corn Gluten Meal is trading at $585 per MT (FOB US Gulf).

The freight rates have been more or less stable, US Gulf - Japan $57 per Mt, while PNW - Japan $30 per MT. Argentina/Brazil to China at $43/44 per MT.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Commodity prices lower, monsoon spreads, but still lower

2009-09-07T12:10:00.002+05:30

Commodity prices lower, monsoon spreads, but still lower

Maize prices on pan India average at the market yard remained stable at Rs.9200-9300 per MT range. Prices were higher than last year by 11.2% in the first week of Sept. Prices were reportd to be down in Andhra Pradesh (2%), Gujarat (7%), Tamil Nadu (5.7%) and up in Rajasthan (1.7%) and Uttar Pradesh (1.6%). Prices were reported to be stable in Maharashtra.

On NCDEX the price of maize for the two contracts moved lower in anticipation of a higher crop. Sept prices were down by 1.6% to Rs.9590 per MT, while Oct delivery was down by 3.5% to Rs.8955 per MT. Spot prices in Nizamabad were down by 1.8% to Rs.9282 per MT; Karimnagar down 2.6% to Rs.9025 per MT and Davanghere down 0.4% to Rs.8530 per MT.

Pearl Millet prices moved up by 1.2% to Rs.9120 per MT. Prices remained higher than last year by 30.2% and were just 1.2% higher than maize at the market yard.

Sorghum prices tumbled by 12.1% at the market yard to Rs.11937 per MT, but were higher than last year by 12%. Against maize the prices were higher by 22.3%.

With the alternate energy source prices moving higher, the demand of maize is likely to be higher and pressure will be on maize by the poultry sector.

Barley prices moved up slightly by 1.3% to Rs.8350 per MT, but remained lower than last year by 15.4%. On NCDEX the prices for the three contracts were lower. Sept down 1.84% to Rs.8852 per MT; Oct down 1% to Rs.9080 per MT and Dec down 0.5% to Rs.9220 per MT. Prices in Jaipur spot market were lower by 1% to Rs.8512 per MT.

Reports are that the Barley production in North America would be largest ever and that the quantity and quality of malting barley would also be better. Current barley price (FOB US Gulf) is $185 per MT.

On CBOT, corn prices were down by more than 6%. Sept corn close down 6.24% at $118.10 per MT, Dec down 5.9% at 120.46% and Mar corn down 6.4% at 125.97 per MT. The FOB value (US Gulf) was down to $152/153 per MT, while FOB PNW was down 183/184 per MT for the period Sept - Dec 2009. Sorghum prices (FOB US Gulf) was down to $150/151 selling at par with corn.

DDGS prices for sept were indicated at $122 (FOB US Gulf), while for Oct - Nov were indicated at $133 and 138 respectively. DDGS (CNF), SEA region were close to $195-200 for Thailand for Oct-Nov.

The freight rates have moved up slightly Gulf-Japan was indicated at $57 per MT, up from last weeks $52 per MT, PNW-Japan was indicated at $29 per MT, up from $25 last week.

India's monsoon has spread and for the week ending Sept 2, 2009, the rainfall was 4% above normal. Only 10 meteorological divisions received deficiency to scanty rainfall. The overall deficit for the period Jun 1 to Sept 2, 2009 is down to 23%. with 12 divisions receiving Excess (1) to Normal Rainfall (11) and 24 divisions receiving Deficient (23) to Scanty (1) rainfall.

The map for the seasonal rainfall for the period Jun 1 - Sept 2, 2009 can be seen using the link below.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/hydro/dynamic/seasonal-rainfall.htm

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Commodity prices move up, drought spreads

2009-08-29T12:09:00.002+05:30

Commodity prices move up, drought spreads

Maize prices in India were down 2% on an average at the market yards (Pan India basis) to Rs.9300 per MT range. Prices are higher than last year by 6.2%. Average prices for Aug 2009 were Rs.9247 per MT, 3.7% higher than last year (Aug 2008) and 4.5% higher than last month (July 2009). Prices in Andhra at the market yard wee down slightly, but delivery prices are much higher. Prices in Rajasthan were also down by 0.6% to Rs.10300 per MT at the market yard. Prices in Gujarat, Tamil nadu and Uttar Pradesh moved up by 5.6%, 2.5% and 2.9% to Rs.10600 (range 9500-11700), Rs.9100 and Rs.9450 per MT at the market yard. Reports indicate that some corn was purchased in Gujarat at Rs.10300 per MT delivered at a feed mill, which is a fair value.

On the futures market the prices moved lower by 2-4% for the two contracts that are currently available, Sept delivery Rs.9750 per MT, down 2%, Oct delivery Rs.9280 per MT, down 4.17%. In the spot market though the prices have moved up by about 1%. Nizamabad RS.9450 range, up 0.5%, Karimnagar Rs.9269, up 1% and Davangere, Rs.8561, up 0.75%.

Pearl Millet prices moved up by about 1% toRs.9050 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 16.2%. The average August 2009 prices is Rs.9036, 18% higher than last year (Aug 2008) and 1.9% higher than last month (July 2009). Against maize, the prices are lower by 3%.

Sorghum prices moved up by 3.5% to Rs.13584 per MT at the market yard. Prices are 14.2% higher than last year. Average Aug 2009 prices was 13,3003 per MT, 21.8% higher than last year (Aug 2008) and 11% higher than last month (Jul 2009). Against maize, the prices are higher by 31.4%.

Barley prices moved lower by 2.7% to Rs.8250 per MT. Prices were lower than last year by 20.7%. The average prices of barley for Aug 2009 is Rs.8259, 19.47% lower than last year (Aug 2008) and 4.5% higher than last month (Jul 2009).

In the futures as well as the spot markets, the prices moved lower. Sept delivery, down by 4.36% to Rs.9000 range, while Oct delivery down by 4.77% to Rs.9170 per MT. Dec delivery was down by 6.5% to Rs.9270 per MT. The spot market (Jaipur), prices were down by 0.3% to Rs.8606 per MT.

As on Aug 27, 2009, GOI has declared 278 districts as drought affected. Only 3% of the area as per IMD has received excess rainfall, while 25% has received normal rainfall. About 70% of the area has received deficient rainfall, and 2% has received scant rainfall. For the period Jun 1 – Aug 26, 2009, the rainfall deficiency is still 25%, Norwest India -25%, Central India – 20%, South Penninsula -14% and North East -25%.

Food grain production as per the figures available from GOI will be lower by 15-20%, GOI has also removed the 5% export incentive on corn exports under Vishesh Krishi Upaj and Gram Udyog Yojana (VKUGUY), which would possibly assist is stabilizing the prices in India and increase availability locally.

On CBOT, corn prices were down marginally. Sept $125.97 per MT, down 0.35% against last week, Dec down 1.21% to $128 per MT. Mar 2010 corn was up 0.88% to $134.63 per MT. FOB gulf value was similar to last week at $160/163 per MT for Sept – Nov delivery. Sorghum price at the same point were close to corn at $159/160 per MT.

DDGS prices on FOB basis (gulf) have risen sharply to $131 Sept to $144 for Nov delivery. CNF prices (SEA region) were close to $185-190 per MT. There is a huge supply of DDGS from US, approximately 30 MMT and the local demand as well as foreign demand is also up as the product currently is selling cheaper than corn in most markets. With 26-27% protein it is possibly a cheapest source of protein available and added on that is the 9-10% oil as an energy source makes it a good buy for use as feed ingredient.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
US Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

Commodity prices up, drought effects livestock

2009-08-22T12:09:00.001+05:30

Commodity Prices up, Drought effects livestock

Maize prices moved up by 3.6% this week to reach Rs.9500 per MT levels pan India average. Prices are 7.6% higher than last year. Prices were stable in Gujarat (Rs.10000), Karnataka (Rs.9200), Maharashtra (RS.9100), Rajasthan (Rs.10,300), and Uttar Pradesh (Rs.9200). However prices moved up in Andhra Pradesh by 1.7% to Rs.8500 per MT and Tamil Nadu by 4.1% to Rs.8900 per MT. The above prices were at the market yard (mandi) level for loose stocks and additional costs for packing, tax and transport etc will be incurred.

In the futures market (NCDEX), while prices of Corn for Sept remained stable at Rs.9960 per MT, Oct delivery was up by 1% to Rs.9680 per MT. Spot markets in Karimnagar and Nizamabad saw an increase of 3,2% and 0.7% to Rs.9179 and Rs.9413 per MT respectively, while Davangere was stable at Rs.Rs.8500 per MT.

Pearl Millet prices remained stable at Rs.8900 range this week at the mandi, but were higher than last year by 17.7%. Prices wee 6.2% lower than maize.

Sorghum prices were down by 4.1% to Rs.13120 per MT at the market yard levels. Prices are higher than last year by 18.2% and higher than maize by 27.5%.

Barley prices moved up by about 2% this week to Rs.8450 per MT at the market yard. Prices were lower than last year by 19.6%.

In the futures market, barley prices moved lower by about 2%, Spet Rs.9430 per MT, down 1.5%, Oct Rs.9630 per MT, down 1.7% and Dec Rs.9910 per MT, down 1.9%. Spot market, Jaipur prices were stable at Rs.8632 per MT.Drought conditions prevail in the country and of the 626 districts for which reports are now available 246 have been declared drought hit. GOI has increased the Minimum Support Prices of Paddy by Rs.1000 per MT and Pulses by Rs.1000 – 3000 per MT, so as farmers will sell these to the GOI organizations. MSP for all other commodities is frozen at last year’s levels.

The drought affected areas are in 10 states. Looking at the last week’s rainfall (until Aug 19), the areas of East India, South Penninsula and Central part received good rainfall and the overall deficit was only 2%. The western part of the country did not receive much rainfall this week. The overall deficiency is 26% and in the corn areas of UP (-40%), Corn/Soy belts of Madhya Pradesh (-29 to -37%), Areas of Ryalseema, Telangana, Marathwada (-30 to -60%). Situation has improved in North Interior Karnataka, which now has received more rainfall and the deficit is reduced (-17%). If the rainfall continues that way it has, it will help the standing crop. Good rainfall is predicted for the month and this will enhance soil moisture conditions in the agri zones and farmers may be able to take an early rabi (Winter crop).

Drought is starting to take its toll is many areas, where farmers have started feeding the standing crop to animals as no grain is expected from these areas. Press reports indicated farmers have also started to sell their animals as they are unable to feed the same. These may not be true in areas where irrigation facilities exists and farmers have other means to feed the animals, but there are areas which are parched and feed ingredients, pasture land is a luxury. Price of dry fodder is also going up in some areas as there is a short supply. Milk production is getting effected and the overall take home is much lower.

Nepal is also facing drought like conditions and the Nepalase government has requested India to allow wheat and Rice exports to Nepal (450,000 MT). There is a ban on wheat and non basmati rice as on date. Nepal fulfills its need for maize also from India and this year, with the drought conditions, the maize crop is expected to be lower by 15% in Nepal and the pressure is going to be on India.

Price of corn on CBOT was slightly higher this week, Sept 126.37 per MT, up 1%, Dec $129.59, up 0.6%. Mar delivery was lower by about 1.85% to $133.45 per MT. FOB gulf prices moved slightly up to $160/162 per Mt for the period Sept/Nov, also FOB PNW was higher slightly to $177/183 per MT for the same period.

DDGS demand is strong domestically as currently it is priced lower than corn. CIF prices to SEA region are indicated at $180 – 190 per MT for Oct – Nov. lat week the prices were $205 per MT for October. FOB Gulf prices are down to $124 per MT, which could be the bottom. Corn gluten meal, a corn co product is priced at $590 (FOB Gulf).

Freight markets are also moving lower and Gulf-Japan is indicated at $53, while PNW-Japan is indicated at $28 per MT. Argentina/Brazil – China is indicated at $38-39 per MT.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
E mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse Cereals prices up on monsoon deficiency; WASDE Report out – predicts a higher corn production

2009-08-15T10:56:00.003+05:30

Coarse Cereals prices up

Maize prices moved up by 2.4% in the market yard to Rs.9200 per MT on pan India average this week. Prices were about 1.6% higher than last year. Prices remained stable in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra at Rs.9290, Rs.8400 and Rs.9150 per MT, but were reported higher Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh by 9% and 6% to Rs.10540 and Rs.9192 respectively.

In the futures market as well, except for near month delivery (Aug), where prices were down by about 2% to Rs.9400 per MT from last weeks Rs.9600 per MT, prices moved up for Sept, Rs.9990, up 1.1% and Oct Rs.9590, up 1.48%. In the spot market while prices in Davangere (Karnataka) and Karimnagar were somewhat stable, at Rs.8500 per MT and Rs.8889 per MT respectively, prices moved up by 1.58% in Nizamabad to Rs.9350 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved down slightly by 1.3% to Rs.9000 per MT, but prices were higher than last year by 15.5%. The prices are lower than maize by 2%.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved up by 6.8% against last week to Rs.13685 per MT. Prices were higher than last year by 20.5% and against maize by 33%.

Barley prices moved up by 3.5% to Rs.8300 per MT, but were lower than last year by 20.4%. In the futures market the prices were lower than last week by 1 – 1.64% to Rs.9570 per MT for Sept and Rs.9794 per MT for Oct delivery. Prices for Dec delivery moved up by 5.2% to Rs.10100 per MT. Prices in the spot market Jaipur were about stable at Rs.8650 per MT range.

On CBOT, prices for Sept moved lower by 1.12% to $125.18 per MT, while prices for Dec and Mar 2010 were up by 0.25% and 1.17% to $128.81 per Mt and $135.97 per MT respectively.

FOB values Gulf and PNW remained stable at $159/161 per MT and $174/182 per Mt respectively for Aug – Oct period. FOB Gulf rates for Sorghum were indicated at $155 per MT.

For the time being DDGS prices for Sept were indicated higher at $195/197 per MT CNF SEA region. For Oct the prices are indicated higher at $205 per MT. FOB gulf prices for DDGS $124 per MT for Sept and $135 per Mt for Oct delivery.

Freight rates were little lower for Gulf-Japan to $56 per MT and $29 per MT for PNW-Japan. Freight rates for Argentina/Brazil – China were about $41-42 per MT, down by about $1 per Mt against last week.

FOB Prices in US for Barley were stable at $200 per MT, while for Corn Gluten Meal were $20 per MT higher than last week to $610 per MT.

WASDE Report out – predicts a higher corn production

The latest WASDE report out last week indicates US corn production for 2009/10 to be 324.14 MMT, with an average productivity of 4.05 tons/acre. The overall supplies are likely to increase to 368.19 MMT and the usage in sector likely to move up due to increased supplies and lower prices.

Feed usage is expected at 134.62 MMT, while Food, Seed & Industrial usage is expected at 139.06 MMT, with corn use for ethanol expected to be 110.21 MMT (part of food, seed and industrial usage). Ending stocks in US are expected at 4119 MMT, up from last mointh's estimates of 39.37 MMT. The price expectation is $122 – 153.53 per MT.

The report also indicates the world production of corn to be 796 MMT, up from last month’s 789 MMT. While production in Mexico, FSU 12 and Ukraine is expected to be lower at 22.5 MMT, 16.82 MMT and 8.5 MMT respectively, production in USA is expected to move up by about 12 MMT from last month’s estimates.

There is still a guess on India’s corn production numbers, and with the rainfall deficiency at 59% for the period Aug 6 – 12, 2009 and overall deficiency of 25% for the period Jun 1 to Aug 12, 2009, production could be affected. In areas where the deficiency has been higher specially in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and North Interior Karnataka the crop where there has been damage due to water stress and wilting, the damage cannot be reversed, which will affect the production of corn in there states. Rains are predicted in the second week of Aug 2009.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative

US Grains Council

Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Commodity prices jump on monsoon deficiency; Livestock the best option to supplement farm incomes

2009-08-08T11:57:00.004+05:30

Commodity prices jump on monsoon deficiency

Maize prices moved up at the market yard this week by 2.2% to Rs.9000 per MT. Prices were lower than last year at the market yard by 1.3%. Prices moved lower in Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh by 3%,1% and 4% to Rs.9650, Rs.8600 and Rs.8700 per Mt respectively. Corn prices moved up in Gujarat, Karnataka and Maharashtra by 13%, 7% and 2.6% to Rs.10770, Rs.9250 and Rs.9130 per MT respectively. Prices in Andhra Pradesh remained stable.

In the futures market maize prices moved up by 5 – 8 %. Aug delivery Rs.9600 per MT , up 4.8%; Sept Rs.9880 per MT, up 6.7%; Oct Rs.9450 per MT, up 8.7%. This could be in anticipation that he production would be lower and also harvest delayed due to late sowing. In the Spot markets the prices remained more or less stable in Nizamabad and Karimnagar in Andhra Pradesh, but moved up to Rs.8518 per MT in Davangere, adding 1.33% to the tally.

Pearl Millet prices moved down by 1% to Rs.9120, but were higher than last year by 11.8%. Against maize, prices were higher by 1.7%.

Sorghum prices also moved up by 8.6% to Rs.12820 per MT at the market yard. Prices were higher than last year by 18.6% and against maize higher by 30%.

Barley prices too moved up by 5.3% at the market yard to Rs.8000 per MT. Prices were lower than last year by 36.5%.

The futures market saw a sudden spurt in the prices adding almost 5-10% to the tally against last week. Sept Rs.9730, up 10.69%; Oct Rs.9882, up 10.53%; Dec Rs.9600 per MT, up 5.12%. At Jaipur spot market the prices were up by 4.8% to Rs.8654 per MT.

Last week was a major setback for Indian agriculture. For the period Jul 30 to Aug 5, 2009, the rain deficiency was 64%. The overall deficiency on monsoon as on Aug 5, 2009 for the period Jun 1 – Aug 5, 2009 stands at 25%. Major corn producing areas, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, North Interior Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh practically did not received any rainfall (def of 80 – 99%), in the crucial week. In some states like Karnataka, sowing was done only in last week of July. Of the 36 meteorological divisions, 27 divisions received deficient or scanty rainfall. In such a situation when the topsoil and subsoil moisture both are under stress and with a dry spell predicted for the next 2 days (revival after 2 days as per the press release from IMD), there is likelihood of a major productivity loss. Press reports suggest a production loss in states on Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh anywhere between 20-30%. Reports are that Maharahstra has also declared drought is some districts and more districts will be added to the list.

The soybean situation is also critical and even though the total area under soybean is higher than last year by almost 3.3%, but with the dip in monsoon and almost dry conditions in Madhya Pradesh the situation may not be as good as previously thought.

Corn futures on CBOT moved lower this week. Prices were down by 3 - 5%. Sept $126.60 per MT, down 5.24%; Dec $128.49, down 3.73%; Mar 2010 $133.69, down 4.06% gainst last week prices. The FOB values for corn for US Gulf and PNW were also dwn to $158/159 per MT and $174-181 per MT respecively for the next 3 months. Sorghum was indicated at $154 per MT (FOB US Gulf), about 2.5% lower than corn. DDGS prices continued to be stable at $188/190 per MT CNF for SEA regions, FOB value (US gulf) were indicated at $129 per MT.

Freight rates have shown a slight downward trend last week to $57 per MT for US Gulf - Japan and $30 per MT for PNW- Japan. Freight rates from Argentina/Brazil to China were also reported lower at $42/43 per MT.

Barley prices in US were reported to be stable at $200 per MT (FOB US gulf) and Corn Gluten Meal prices moved up slightly to $590 per MT (FOB US Gulf).

Livestock the best option to supplement farm incomes

In these trying times, when farmers are looking skyward, hoping for a miracle, possibly livestock would be an only option provide gainful employment and returns to the farmers in India. GOI and the state governments are already geared towards this and the procurement price of milk in Pune area has been increased by Rs.2.50 per liter. The sale price of milk has also increased by Rs.2.0 per liter. Mother dairy has also increased the price of milk by Rs.1.00per liter for the consumers in Delhi, due to increase in procurement price. The increased procurement price will give an incentive to the farmer to feed the animals with balanced rations to get more milk from the animals. The deficiency is rainfall has also depleted the availability of green fodder on which some of the farmers were dependent. The deficiency in milk procurement is about 20% in Maharashtra. North India too is reeling under the same problem and the procurement as per Govt report is down by 15%.

In order to increase the returns for the buffalo farmers, GOI through NABARD has created a Rs.3 billion ($61 million) fund, which will provide interest free loans to farmers to keep male buffalo calves, which after attaining a particular weight could be sold to the large animal slaughter houses. Meat of buffalo males would then be exported. U S Grains Council had started a project in India in 1996 in collaboration with NDRI Karnal and the average weight gain obtained by feeding the males was 1.1 kg/day in a period of 8 months. The males were fed with high grain rations, containing 35% corn. Reports available suggest that farmers and enterprises will be able to avail this loan for 10 animals or more.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Stable prices and improvement in monsoon

2009-08-01T09:19:00.003+05:30

Stable prices and improvement in Monsoon

Maize prices have moved up by 2.5% over last week to touch Rs.9000 per MT on the pan India average. The prices are similar to last year levels. Data shows, prices have moved up ins tates of Andhra Pradesh, 0.21% to Rs.8325 per MT; Karnataka +2.82% to Rs.8630 per MT and in Uttar Pradesh +4.36% to Rs.9040 per MT. In some states prices have moved lower, Gujarat 2.6% to Rs.9500 per MT; Maharashtra 3.6% to Rs.8900 per MT and Tamil nadu 1.3% to Rs.8685 per MT.

In the futures market prices moved lower for Aug / Sept / Oct marginally. Aug Rs9210; Sept Rs.9260; Oct Rs.8690 per MT. In the spot markets prices have remained similar to last week, expect in Davangere were prices were down by 1.4% to Rs.8406 per MT.

In the month of shravan, with people abstaining from non veg foods in parts of the country, might be one factor for lower prices in some of the consumption states. The Shravan month is observed in South India from July 20 – Aug 20 and in later in the month from Aug 23 – Sept 3, Ganesh festival will be celebrated, which will further reduce the consumption of non veg food and could be a reason for reduced demand of grains, particularly maize now. But as farmers get ready to put in stocks for Sept, demand may rise and so would the prices.

The average prices for July 2009 was Rs.8862 per MT on an average, 2.2% higher than Jun 2009 and 4.4% higher than July 2008 prices.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved lower by about 8% this week to Rs.8670 per MT, but were higher than last year by 8.8%. Prices are lower than maize by 3.8%. Average prices of Pearl Millet in July 2009 was Rs.8860, 3.1% higher than Jun 2009 and 19% higher than Jul 2008.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved up by about 1% to Rs.11892 at the market yard. Prices are 4.3% higher than last week and 24% higher than maize at the market yard. Average July 2009 price was Rs11978 per MT, 11% higher than Jun 2009 and 10.66% higher than Jul 2008.

Barley prices moved up slightly by 0.5% to Rs.7650 per MT, but were lower than last year by 34.5%. Average barley price for July was Rs.7900 per MT, 0.52% higher than Jun 2009 and 26% lower than July 2008.

In the futures market Barley prices have been down marginally by 0.35% for Sep – Oct in the spot market have been stable as last week at Rs.8260 per MT.

The deficiency in rainfall for the period Jun 1- Jul 29 is close to 19%, though there was some advancement of monsoon and some areas did receive rainfall in the last week, including parts of Delhi and Chandigarh. The major chunk of India the agriculture belt (18 sub-divisions) shows deficient rainfall (-20—59%) as per the report on IMD website. Latest reports indicate that farmers have sown more coarse cereals, Oilseeds and Pulses in the last week in wake of good rains in parts of India.The august rainfall will be crucial for the crops and if there is large scale deficiency, some serious measures will need to be taken by the government.

On CBOT, corn prices moved higher by 2-5%. Sept $133.61 (+5.23%); Dec $134.48 (+3.04%); Mar $139.36 (+2.53%). FOB GulF and PNW prices are indicated at $164/166 and $181/191 per MT respectively for August to October 2009 period.

Prices for Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles (DDGS), slipped lower in the US, this making it the most competitive protein/energy ingredient. Delivered prices to SEA region were indicated at $188/190, while FOB Gulf process were indicated at $127 per MT, down by $4 as of last week.
Freight rates have remained stable more or less at $62 for Gulf-Japan sector and $33 for PNW-Japan sector. Freight to China from Brazil-Argentina to China was reported to move lower at $46/147 per MT. Reports also indicate that the Brazilian corn may not be in the market (expect a few destinations) due to higher prices locally and that China also has released some 2 MMT of corn on the domestic market.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
E Mail: usgcindia@gmail.com

Monsoon gather speed, commodity prices stable

2009-07-27T09:41:00.003+05:30

Monsoon gather speed, commodity prices stable

Maize prices moved lower by 3.6% at the market yard on an average to Rs.8778 per MT. Prices remained higher than last year by 1.9%. Prices in Andhra and Karnataka markets were lower by 2.3% and 1.44% to Rs.8300 and Rs.8400 respectively. Prices in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu moved up by 9%, 1.7%, 1.2%, and 3.3% to Rs.8950, Rs.9200, 10,000 and Rs.8800 respectively.

In the futures market prices moved lower for Aug, Sept and October contracts to Rs.9360, Rs.9310 and Rs.8720 per MT. This is mostly on increased monsoon activity in some areas and lower demand from the export side. It was only in Davangere that the prices moved up, while in Nizamabad and Karimnagar prices remained stable at Rs.9245 and Rs.8924 per MT respectively.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved up by 3.4% to Rs.9234 per MT, higher than last year by about 14.5%. Against maize the prices were higher by 4.7%.

Sorghum ( Jowar) prices moved lower by 6.3% to Rs.11800 per MT on pan India average. Prices were higher than last year by 8.7% and also higher than maize by 25.6%.

Barley prices were lower than last week by 1.3% to Rs.7610 per MT, lower than last year by 44.5%. In the futures market as weel prices moved lower by 3-5%, Sept contract was Rs.8822 per MT, down 3.6%, while Oct contract was down by 4.2% to Rs.8974 per MT. In the spot market (Jaipur), prices were Rs.8269, 3.2% lower than last week. US barley prices were being quoted at $200 per MT.

The rainfall deficit is now down to 19% and if good rains continue, even though the Khariff production will be affected due to the delay, the soil moisture for Rabi crop will be better.

Prices on CBOT this week were similar to last week at $126.96 per MT for Sept; $130.50 per MT for Dec; and $135.91 per MT for Mar 2010 delivery. FOB values were down slighlty US Gulf at $155/157 per MT, whil PNW at $167/171 per MT for the next 3 month period. Sorghum (FOB US Gulf) was indicated at $148/150 per MT.

DDGS prices have moved lower on lower corn prices, higher availability of DDGS. While FOB US Gulf and PNW are indicated at $133 and 144 per MT respectivelt, DDGS delivered to SEA region is indicated at $190/194 per MT. Another protein source, Corn Gluten Meal (60% protein) is indicated at $590 per MT (FOB), about %60 cheaper than last week.

The freight rates for bulk grains have moved up slightly, US-gulf to Japan is indicaed at $64 per MT, while PNW-Japan is indicated at $33 per MT. Freighr rates Argentina/Brazil to China has also moved up to $48/49 per MT.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

Commodity prices move up, monsoon is still deficient

2009-07-18T11:48:00.002+05:30

Commodity prices move up, monsoon is still deficient

Maize prices moved up at the market yard by almost 4.2% this week to reach Rs.9100 per MT. The prices are about 6.9% higher than last year. Uneven distribution on monsoon rains, near drought like conditions in North India are reasons enough to set the tone for high prices. The buyers may be covered for some the months ahead, increasing prices are indication enough that the supplies will be tight in near future as the marketing season comes to an end.

In the futures market as well and the spot markets, maize prices moved up as the supplies dry and the monsoon plays truant. It was only for July delivery that the prices were lower by about 0.4% against last week to Rs.9230 per MT, but were higher for Aug +073% to Rs.9620 per MT; Sept +1.05% to Rs.9500 per MT; Oct +2.19% to Rs.8850 per MT. In the Spot market to except Davanagere, prices moved up. Davangere -1.15% to Rs.8470 per MT; Nizamabad +2.4% to Rs.9243 per MT; Karimnagar +2.73% to Rs.8977 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices also moved higher at the market yard by 1.9% to Rs.8900 per MT, just about 2.2% lower than maize prices. Pearl Millet prices are higher than last year by 18.6%. Reports indicate that farmers in Rajasthan and parts of Haryana who would have grown corn have planted Pearl Millet. And if the monsoon is subdued, as it is for the period Jun 1- Jul 15, 2009, farmers may need to feed the bajra as fodder to livestock. Pearl Millet is a staple food for many people in Rajasthan and Haryana, who grow the bold variety of the commodity.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices also moved up by 6.1% to reach 12595 per MT at the market yard. Prices are about 14.1% higher than last year and 27.7% higher than maize. Sorghum is a coarse grain and a staple in Maharashtra, Parts of Karnataka.

Barley prices moved lower by about 12.6% to reach Rs.7700 per MT the market yard. This is a correction and the prices are same as first week of July 2009. Prices are lower than last year by 43.3%.

In the future market as well as spot market of Jaipur though, prices moved up. Jul +0.87% to Rs.8740 per MT; Sept +1.77% to Rs.9150 per MT; Oct +3.60% to Rs.9376 per MT; Jaipur spot +1.94 to Rs.8544 per MT.

On CBOT, corn prices moved down slightly for Sept and dec contracts by about 2-2.5% to $126 - $130 per MT. FOB US GULF remained same as last week at $159 per MT for the period July/Oct. FOB PNW was also stable at $168/170 per MT. Sorghum prices on the other hand moved up slightly to $512 per MT FOB PNW.

There is steady demand of DDGS in the Asian markets as the prices move lower. Domestic poultry sector continues to be a buyer of DDGS and replaces high prices Soybean meal. FOB prices US gulf are indicated at $138 per MT, while delivered values are indicated at $192 per MT for Malaysia and $198 per MT for Thailand.

Freight rates for panamax (US Gulf – Japan) moved up by $5 per MT this week to reach $60 per MT, while Freight rates for PNW-Japan remained same at $31 per MT. Freight rates for China from Argentina and Brazil moved up slightly to $44/45 per MT.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

World corn prices move down, Indian prices are higher; Checkoff fund program can help poultry sector grow in India

2009-07-11T13:08:00.004+05:30

World corn prices move down, Indian prices are higher

Indications are monsoon in the North is delayed, if not failed completely and this will certainly affect sowing of khariff crops in the region. Crops like Paddy, Corn, Barley and oilseeds are likely to be effected. The met department predicts that the revival of the monsoon will be there in about 3 days. News reports indicate sowing of maize in North India would be down by 25%. Only 50% of the area has been covered under coarse cereals as yet and a complete cover is almost impossible now.

Maize prices moved higher in the market yard this week by about 0.6%, average at Rs.8740 per MT for loose material. Delivery prices in Gujarat were close to Rs.10000 – 10,300 per MT. The prices are higher than last year by 6.5%.

On the futures market, maize prices moved up by over 2% for all the contracts, July Rs.9360 per MT; Aug Rs.9550 per MT; Aug Rs.9400 per MT. Oct delivery was similar to last wee. In the spot market of Nizamabad, prices were higher slightly by 0.87% to Rs.9026 per MT, while in Karimnagar, prices were lower by 1.5% at Rs.8738 per MT.

Pearl millet (bajra) prices remained stable at Rs.8740 range, but were higher than last year by 16.4%. Prices are same at maize at the market yard. With soil moisture being low, farmers in some areas of Haryana may look at bajra as an option where normally oilseeds would be grown.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved up by 1.3% in the market yard to Rs.11,870 per MT. Prices are 9.3% higher than last year and also 26.4% higher than maize at the market yard.

Barley prices have shown a rise of about 14.5% to s.8820 per MT, which could be rally and may subside in the next week. But there sure is demand from the dairy sector for grains.

In the spot market though, prices were down this week by about 1-1.2% and at Jaipur market too prices moved lower to Rs.8381 per MT.

Corn prices on CBOT for the three most close contracts slipped lower by 0.63% for July to $135.18 per MT, 4.69% for Sept to $129.67 per MT; and 4.86% for Dec $133.85 per MT. This has also lowered the FOB values. US Gulf is indicated at $159 per MT, while PNW at $168/172 per MT. With Freight also going lower by at least $5 to $55 per MT for US Gulf to Japan, delivered corn pries will be much lower. PNW-Japan freight rates is also down but only by a dollar to $31 per MT. Argentina/Brazil – China freight is down by at least $10 per MT as per reports to $41/42 per MT. One reason being attributed to lower freight rates is China being out if the iron ore market at least for the time being and also crude being lower and reaching close to $50 per barrel.

With corn prices being lower, the prices for DDGS have come down drastically. FOB (US Gulf) is indicated at $144 per MT, $10 lower than last week. Delivered value for SEA is indicated at under $200 per MT. Delivered India would be a little higher at maybe $225 (Rs.+11000 per MT). Corn Glutten Meal prices have also corrected to $660 per MT (FOB US Gulf), down from $720 per MT.

The latest WASDE report was released by USDA yesterday and several changes have been made in the Marketing year 2008/09 balance sheet and well and 2010.

Domestic usage in US is lowered to 133.3 MMT, Domestic food and industrial usage lowered to 124.96 MMT, Ending stocks raised to 43.18 MMT. For Marketing Year 2010, USDA raised U.S. production to 312.16 MMT. Domestic feed usage at132.08 MMT (lower than 2008/09), domestic food and industrial usage at 136.52 MMT (increase from 2008/09). Corn usage for ethanol kept at 104.14 MMT. Ending stocks at 39.37 MMT

The higher ending stocks in the US are weighing on the market and pulling the market lower, as per the analysts.

World corn production is pegged at 789.8 MMT, up more than 8 MMT from a month ago and 1.2 MMT higher than the previous year. World ending stocks also jumped significantly this month to 139.2 MMT, up nearly 14 MMT from a month ago but still down 4.7 MMT or 3% from the previous year.

Checkoff fund program can help poultry sector grow in India

Colombian poultry industry has grown exponentially since 1994 and the per capita chicken consumption has grown from 10 kg in 1994 to 22.7 kg in 2008, thanks to the consumer promotion program initiated by the association as a result of the checkoff fund, which generates approximately $5 million annually. The Poultry association in Morocco (FISA) is likely to follow the lead and establish a checkoff fund, which will be used to promote consumption of poultry products and change consumer perceptions.

India also has a checkoff fund of sort in National Egg Co-ordination Committee (NECC), which promotes egg consumption and assists the farmers in getting a fair price for eggs. A similar checkoff fund can be created for Broiler meat and if GOI can provide matching funds, the demand of poultry meat, eggs and other products can soar. At a cost of Rs.0.50 per broiler produced (1.1% of the cost of production), only from the integrated segment (60% of the poultry- 1080 million) the checkoff would be able to generate $11 million and a mere 0.14% of the amount given to National Rural Emplyment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) would double the amount of the checkoff fund which can used to promote poultry product consumption.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Monsoon and mixed bag for commodity prices

2009-07-05T16:09:00.003+05:30

Monsoon and mixed bag for commodity prices

Monsoon has covered the entire country, but for the period June 1 - July 1, 2009 the monsoon rains are deficit by 46%. The last week's rainfall is likley to give a boost to sowing of rice, oilseeds, pulses, maize and sugarcane is the northern part of the country which was reeling under extreme weather conditions. This may be one reason way maize prices were lower

Maize prices moved lower by about 1% at the market yard to Rs.8650 per MT level. The prices though remained higher than last year by about 6.2%. The delivery prices though would move higher as the truck owners/transporters would increase the charges due to increase in diesel prices.

In the futures market, prices moved lower by about 2% for July / sept period to 9160 – 9350 per MT, but for October, prices were lower by about 7.5% to Rs.8650 per MT, possibly as the monsoon has fully covered India and there is anticipation of a good corn crop. In addition, the US prices moving lower could have helped the Indian prices moving to lower levels.

In the SPOT markets of Karimnagar and Davangere prices moved lower by 1.5 – 2.3% to Rs.8871 and Rs.8565 per MT respectively. While in Nizamabad prices moved up slightly t Rs.8948 per MT.

Pearl Millet prices moved up by about 3.1% this week to Rs.8766 per MT and were also higher than last year by 22%. The prices were just about 1% higher than maize at the market yard.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices were higher than last week by 11.3% to Rs.11727 per MT and also higher than last year prices by 11.7%. Against maize, the prices were higher by 26%.

Barley prices moved up by 0.7% to Rs.7700 per MT. and were lower than last year by about 40%. There is ample amount of barley available in the India for malt manufacture and feeding the animals. At least 1.2 MMT of barley will be used for feed and food purposes in 2009/10.

In the futures market, the prices were lower than last week by about 2% for Jul/Oct period. The price in the SPOT market (Jaipur) was stable at Rs.8400 range.

On CBOT, corn prices were down by about 10% for July, Sept and Dec deliveries. July $136.05 per MT; Sept 136.06 per MT; Dec $140.70 per MT. This was reflected in the FOB Gulf and PNW prices which were down to $160/162 and $172/177 per MT range respectively. Sorghum prices have moved down by about 6.2% against corn on FOB US Gulf.

Lower corn values have lowered the prices of DDGS in the market. FOB value (US Gulf) is indicated at $154 per MT, down 10% against last week. Delivered prices in SEA region are indicated at $215/218 per MT. Possibly this is the cheapest protein available and is pushing the demand higher.

The freight rates have remained stable this week, moving up by about $1 per MT for Gulf-Japan, PNW-Japan or Brazil-Argentina to China.

One of the reasons being attributed to lower corn prices is the increased land under corn in the US. As per the June 30, USDA report, US farmers have planted more than 87 Mill Acres of land under corn, up 1% against 2008. Also the Soybean planting is up by 2% to 77.5 mill acres. If the weather remains favorable, US would be harvesting the biggest corn crop in Oct 2009.

Reports from Argentina point to higher soybean crop at the expense of corn due to the agricultural policy and an export tax on corn in Argentina. In addition, China is expected to release about 30 MMT of corn in the market this year. Also the Chinese government has set the standards for grain (corn), which will be effective Sept 1, 2009.

With the US prices being lower, Indonesia exporting corn in the region, China coming into the market, there is scope for Indian corn prices to move lower. But the biggest force here will be China and when the stocks will be in the International market.

Amit Sachdev
India representative
U S Grains Council
email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Commodity prices move lower

2009-06-28T11:00:00.004+05:30

Commodity prices move lower

Maize prices at Mandi level (Market yard) moved up by about 1% to 8770 per MT and remained higher than last year by 4.3%. In the futures trade (NCDEX), the price moved lower by 0.5 - 3.8% from July - Oct contracts. prices were ranginging between Rs.9260 for Sept contract to Rs.9550 per Mt for August contract. Near month close, July contract was down to Rs.9380 per MT. In the spot markets too, prices were lower than last week by 0.6 - 1% in Nizamabad (Rs.8868) and Davangere (Rs.8767). It was only at karimnagar that prices were higher at Rs.9029 per MT. Average price of maize at the market yard in June was Rs.8670, about 8% higher than last year and 2.3% higher than May 2009.

One reason for prices being lower is the quantity of maize availability being higher in Karnataka as the tender has been cleared and stocks will be available for sale. This has possibly forced some traders to bring out stocks as well increasing the overall availability of maize in the market.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices also moved lower by 1.8% to Rs.8500 per MT at the market yard, but were higher than last year by 19%. Prices were lower than maize by 3.1%. Average price of Pearl Millet at the market yard was Rs.8591 per Mt, 21.58% higher than last year and about 4.11% lower than last month.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved a bit higher at the market yard by 1.3% to Rs.10530 per MT and also were higher than last year by 1.8%. Against maize, the prices remained higher by 16.7%. Average sorghum prices were Rs.10775 per MT, 4.34% higher than last year Jun 2008 prices and were 2.38% higher than may 2009 prices.

Barley prices have moved lower at the market yard by 2.3% to Rs.7360 per MT. Prices were lower than last year by 43.4%. Average price of barley at market yard for Jun 2009 was Rs.7857, about 30% lower than last year and 8.91% lower than last month.. In the futures market too, prices moved down by 0.5 - 3.6% and in the spot market (jaipur) prices were lower by 0.8% to Rs.8369 per MT. Current prices of feed barley in the US are indicated at $200 per MT.

Due to increased availability of barley in the India, specially in the Northern Region (Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh), dairy farmers are increasinly using barley as an energy source. Reports are a mix of 50-50 mix of corn and barley is being used in some areas. With monsoon playing traunt in North India, the avaiability of greens for dairy is a major issue.

On CBOT, corn prices moved lower by 3.7 - 5.2%. Jul contract closed at $151.25, down 3.75% against last week's close. Similarly Sept and Dec contracts were at $154.16 per MT and $158.02 per MT, losing 3.85% and 5.24% respectively against last week's close. US Gulf FOB value corrected and was down to $175/178 per MT for Jun/Aug delivery. Prices for PNW FOB also were down at $190/194 per MT. With Gulf-Japan and PNW-Japan freight rates also down to $59 and $31 per MT, deliveries to SEA region would be close to $240 per MT. DDGS prices have also decreased as the corn prices have come down. Indicative delivered value to SEA region is $240 per MT, while FOB Gulf is $171 per MT.

In the US use of silage in dairy rations has increased, which has effected the demand of DDGS, but else where in Asia, the demand is there as the Soybean meal prices are still higher.

There are reports that China has some 40 MMT of corn stocks and there could be some exports of corn in the comming time. On the other side, Brazil may be growing less corn due to higher Soybean prices and also as maize requires higher inputs, Soybean would be a better bet for the farmers. What happens in India is still to be seen as the monsoon has covered almost

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Prices move lower, monsoon delays cause worry

2009-06-20T17:54:00.002+05:30

Prices move lower, monsoon delays cause worry

Maize prices were stable at the market yard at Rs.8690 per MT, but prices were higher than last year by 4.6%. In the futures market (NCDEX), prices moved lower by 3-4%. July Rs.9420 per MT, lower by 4.2%; Aug Rs.9710 per MT, lower by 2.9%; Sept 9630 per MT, lower by 3.2%. Oct prices were Rs.9655 per MT. In the SPOT market though prices moved up for Nizamabad at Rs.8927 per MT, up 1.65%; Davangere Rs.8852 per MT, up 2.4%. It was only in Karimnagar prices moved lower by 0.5% to Rs.8979 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved up by 2% to Rs.8650 per MT on an average and were 17% higher than last year. Prices are similat to maize prices.

Sorghum prices corrected at Rs.10400 per MT, down 13.4% this week, are are also lower than last year prices by 1.5%. Prices are higher than maize by 16.5%.

Barley prices were down by 2.1% to Rs.7800-7850 per MT range. Prices were lower than last year by 46.4%. In the futues as well as the spot market (Jaipur), prices were lower than by 2-3.5%. Jul Rs.9000 per Mt, down 2.8%; Sep Rs.9170 per MT, down 3.35%; Oct Rs.9712 per MT. Jaipur spot prices Rs.8436 per MT, down 1.8%.

Delayed monsoon is a cause of worry in India. Sowing of major crops, inclusing rice, cotton, oilseeds (soybean), maize etc is lagging behind except in Karnataka. Rainfall this week has been reported 51% below normal and for the period Jun 1 - 17, it is 45% below normal. The World Weather Inc., in its report has cited EL NINO effect that could lower monsson in India and China region and lower grain production. There is still time for monsoon to revive over India, but some time has surely been lost.

Corn prices on CBOT were down more than 6% on an average, due to concerns on economic stability and reports that ending stocks for 2008/09 will be higher and that demand may not be as high as anticipated. July contract was down 6.13% at $157.15 per MT; Sept down 6.25% at $160.3 per MT; Dec down 5.36% at $166.76 per MT.

FOB values of corn US Gulf and PNW have falled as the CBOt prices have come down. FOB (US gulf) prices are indicated at $178-183 per MT, while fOB (PNW) are indicated at $196/200 per MT.

Freights cost from Gulf - japan have gone up by about $6 per MT to $62, while for PNW-Japan are stable at $35 per MT. Freight costs from Argentina/Brazil to China have also moved up by $4 this week to $52/53 per MT. Sorghum is indicated at $175/178 per MT for US Gulf.

DDGS prices for SEA region are down by $5 per MT to reach $245 per MT, FOB values (US Guf) are also reported to be lower at $186 per MT. The demand for DDGS in some countries is substantially higher as the SBM prices are higher and DDGS has proven to be a good, consistent product for protein.

Corn Gluten Meal prices have been rising and current FOB gulf prices are at $770 per MT. This might also be the reason for Indian CGM prices to move up the circuit.

If monsoon is delayed any longer and if EL NINO takes effect, productivity of all crops this Khariff season may be an issue.

Amit Sachdev
India represenative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

Commodity prices move up in India; WASDE report released

2009-06-15T10:07:00.004+05:30

Commodity prices move up in India

Maize prices moved up by 1.7% on an average, pan India basis at the market yard reaching Rs.8700 per MT. Prices were higher than last year by 10%. In the SPOT markets, prices moved up by 4-6%. In Nizamabad prices were Rs.8780, up 4.3%; Davangere Rs.8641, up 4.9% and in Karimnagar Rs.9019 per MT, up 5.89%. In the Futures market as well, prices moved higher by 3.5-5.5%. August maize was at Rs.10,000 per MT, up 5.5% against last week's close. Even though the sowing has started in India, monsoon is delayed which could be one reason. Also increased demand rom poultry and other users, Starch would be aiding to price increase. It is still 4 months before the new crop comes into the market and prices normally move up during this period.

Pearl Millet Prices were down by 2.4% to Rs.8500 per MT range, but 16% higher than last year. Prices are lower than maize by 2.2% and in areas like Haryana, Rajasthan, where Pearl Millet is grown, it can be repalce maize at 5-10%.

Sorghum prices made a jump of 18.4% this week, to Rs.12000 per MT range. Prices are higher than last year by 16% and also 28% against maize.

Barley prices moved up slightly by 0.6% to Rs.8000 per MT range, but were 42% lower than last year. There could be ample amount of barley in the market which would find use in dairy rations in the production areas. In the SPOT as well as the futures market, barlet prices moved lower than last week by 1-2%.

On CBOT, corn prices were lower than last week by about 4%. July corn was $167.47, Sept $171; Dec $176.21 per MT. FOB gulf was also lower to $190/192 for Jun/Sept delivery, and FOB PNW was down to $205/207 per MT for the same period. Sorghum was indicated at $182/184 per MT for the same period for FOB Gulf delivery and still at a discount on corn.

DDGS prices also moved lower in the US by about $7-10 per MT and delivered prices for SEA region were indicated at close to $250 per MT, while FOB Gulf prices were $203 per MT. One reason being attributed to the lower DDGS prices is the increase in supplies, which is keeping the prices low.

WASDE report released

WASDE report last week estimates a lower production of corn in the world (781.46 MMT) and a lower ending stocks (125.46 MMT) in 2009/10. US is expected to produce 303.16 MMT, against 307 MMT estimated last month and ending stocks will also be relativerly lower at 27.70 MMT. The lower production estimates are due to delayed plantig and thus a lower yield. Usage of corn is expected to be 130 MMT for Feed & residual, lower than last month's estimation of 133 MMT. Food seed and industrial usage is expected to 137.41 MMT wnd the use of corn for ethanol (part of industrial usage) is expected to be 104.14 MMT in 2009/10.

The report can be downloaded using the link below

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

Commodity prices move up, no respite

2009-06-06T11:01:00.003+05:30

Commodity prices move up, no respite

Maize prices have moved up in the market yard by 1.5% to Rs.8500 range. Prices are higher than last year by 10.7%. Delay in monsoon in the coastal areas, news about farmers shifting to other crops has increased the market values.

Export continues slowly, with prices at port (east) touching $215 (taking into consideration all costs and 5% subsidy). Delivery to SEA markets is close to $245 -250 per MT. Domestic end users are facing trouble in finding good quality stocks in some areas.

Food Corporation of India, Bangalore has put out another tender for sale of 0.373 MMT of maize from its godowns in Karnataka. The last date is Jun 22, 2009. With the two tenders combined, approximately 0.7 MMT of corn would be in the market by July/August 2009.

On the futures market (NCDEX), maize prices moved higher fro, 0.7 – 2.3%. Jun corn was higher by 0.67% at Rs.9010, while July corn was up to Rs.9360 per MT, adding 1.19% August corn added 2.32% to close at Rs.9480, while Sept corn close at Rs.9600 per MT, adding 2.89%. Prices in the SPOT market also gained 1-3%. Nizamabad was up 1.4% to Rs.8420 per MT, while Karimnagar added 3.12% to close at Rs.8517 per MT. Davangere closed at Rs.8232 per MT, up 0.83%.

Pearl Millet prices are stable at Rs.8700 range and are higher than last year by 18.6%. Against maize prices are higher by just 2%.

Sorghum prices have also moved up by 1.5% to Rs.10152 per MT, but are 1.5% lower than last year. Against maize, prices are higher by 16%.

Barley prices are down by 7.8% to Rs.7950 per MT and against last year prices are down by almost 41%.

In the futures market as well, barley prices were lower than last week by 0.2 – 1.3% and within the range of Rs.9400 for July and 9840 for Oct delivery. Prices in Jaipur spot market were Rs.8764 per Mt, down 0.93% from last week.

On CBOT the corn closed higher than last week for July, Sept and Dec deliveries, gaining 1.8%. Prices were $174.79, $178.72 and $184 for corresponding month’s delivery. FOB gulf corn was indicated at $194/198 per MT, while FOB PNW was indicated at $210/213 per MT. Sorghum prices (FOB US Gulf) were indicated at $188/194 per MT, higher than last week, but lower than corn.

Corn crop progress is good and as per USDA report almost 93% was planted, as against 94% last year. About 73% of crop has also emerged, against 71% last year. Sorghum plating is about 57%, better than last year’s 53%, but almost similar to 5 year average 58%. Barley planting is at 87%, lagging behind against last year’s planting of 99% at this time. About 60% of barley is reported to be emerged as per USDA report, against 89% emerged last year at this time.

Some independent studies/reports put US corn crop at 287 MMT against 307 MMT estimated by USDA. The June report is eagerly awaited, which will probably clear some air of the production estimates. The lower production estimates are only due to late sowing of corn in three states namely Illinois, Indiana and Iowa. Average productivity is estimated at 3.77 tons/acre in the report against 3.94 tons/acre by USDA in May 2009 report.

As crude moves up, Dry Baltic Index (DBI) also moved up this week, indicating that the freight costs are going to move up. This is also an indication that the global recovery has started. Freight rates from US have been going up for couple of weeks now, US Gulf-Japan was indicated at $56.5, up from last week’s $54 per MT. Also PNW-Japan freight rate was indicated up $3 per MT to $34 per MT. Freight rates from Brazil/Argentina to China were stable at $48/49 per MT.

DDGS prices have moved up in the US and export markets due to increased demand and Soybean meal prices moving up. Farmers in SEA/Middle East/Far East/Oceania are finding it easy to use DDGS in rations and reduce cost of production of meat, milk and eggs and make products affordable. The increased availability of protein and use of diverse protein meals makes it easy to select. CNF prices for SEA region were indicated at $260, while FOB values were close to $210 per MT.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

Higher Cereal and Meal prices reduce profitability; DDGS – protein meal of choice

2009-05-30T11:38:00.005+05:30

Higher cereals and meal prices reduce profitability

Even though maize prices may have dipped by 3.2% in the open market (Mandi) to Rs.8400 per Mt on average. Prices against last year are higher by 12.7%. Average price is Andhra Pradesh was reported at Rs.8240 per MT, while in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu it was reported at Rs.7970 per MT. Reports are that the deliveries are also less and in some cases quality is an issue. Average prices for the month of May were Rs.8472, 16.15% higher than last year and 2.2% higher than last moth (April 2009).

On NCDEX, Jun and July contracts were up by 1 – 1.5% to Rs.8950 and Rs.9250 per MT respectively. August contract was stable at Rs.9265 per MT. SPOT prices at Nizamabad were down by 1.33% to Rs.8300 range, while Davangere was also down up 1% to Rs.8164 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices also moved lower by 3.2% to Rs.8760 per MT, but remained higher than last year by 20.7%. Prices were also higher than maize by 4.1%. Averge May 2009 prices were Rs.8960 per MT, about 23.7% higher than last year prices and 0.56% higher than last month (April 2009).

Sorghum (Jowar) prices also moved lower by 2.6% in t he market yard, to Rs.10,000 per MT. Prices were higher than last year by 1.4% and higher than maize by 16%. Averaage prices for the month of May 2009 were Rs.10524 per MT, 2.31% higher than lastyear (May 2008), and 8.09% higher than last month (April 2009).

Evidently the pressure is on corn by all organized feed players and integrators as they are unable to use other grains like Pearl Millet and Sorghum in their rations. Some of the integrators have increased the corn usage in broiler ration to 62%. In layer ration the usage is kept at 47-50%. The individual farmers on the other side play with the formulation and try to use local grains.

Barley prices moved up by 6.3% at the market yard to Rs.8626 per MT, but prices were lower than last year by 27.6% Average prices for may 2009 were Rs.8626 per MT, about 17% lowwe than lastyear, but 6.76% higher than last month (April 2009).

On NCDEX, the prices moved up by 0.5% for July and Sept contract to Rs.9400 and Rs.9690 per MT respectively. While for October contract, prices were down by 6%. In 6he spot market (Jaipur), prices were lower by 1.2%.

In the US prices moved higher by 1.4 – 1.6% on CBOT for July to Dec contracts. July $171.72; Sept $175.66; Dec $180.77 per MT. FOB gulf values were also up to 191/195 for Jun-August deliveries. FOB PNW was also higher to $206/210 per MT for Jun-August delivery. Sorghum is trading at a discount to corn in the US and FOB gulf prices are $185/190 per MT.

DDGS prices have also moved up due to higher demand in the domestic as well as export markets. Current delivery to SEA region is indicated at $250 per MT. FOB gulf value for DDGS is $204 per MT.

The prices of cereals are higher than last year and will remain higher, skyrocketing prices of protein meals is another factor that is affecting the profitability of livestock and poultry farmers farmers by increasing the cost of production of meat, milk and eggs. As per SEA of India report, prices of almost all extractions are up by 30-46%, Peanut Extraction +30%, Soybean +34%’ Rapeseed/Mustard +37%, Sunflower +46%. Oilcake prices are also up by 10-23%. Sunflower +10%,; Rapeseed Mustard +21%; Peanut Cake +23%. All prices are against last year's May average prices. There is a need to provide alternate source of protein to safeguard the interest and livelihoods of many farmers who are involved in livestock farming, including poultry. The new oil seed crop is still 6 months away and the requirements are bound to go up, rather than coming down.

DDGS – protein meal of choice

Reports are that DDGS has become the protein of choice in US and also in the export markets, specially Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia etc due to increased Soybean meal prices.

There are several instances when farmers in countries have used DDGS in the ration and have been able to reduce feed costs, without affecting the efficiency of production. In some cases, efficiency has also increased.

USGC office in Japan has been working closely with some dairy farms, Kaneso Dairy Farm (500 head milking+250 heifers), being one of them, which has been using 10% DDGS in their feed. The current production of milk per animals is 32 kg per head per day and has not beed affeted by the inclusion.

Another feed company ZEN-NOH, imports DDGS and supplies compounded feed to the dairy operations, containing 10-15% DDGS. Reports suggest that the DDGS fed cows produce same or better production levels against non DDGS fed animals. And the feed costs are also significantly lower.

The Council’s local dairy feed expert Hiroaki Igarashi says, the cows think DDGS is “udderly delicious” and the Japanese dairy farmers see the immediate reduction in their feed bill, which is important as well.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative,
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

Prices mixed in India, move up in the US

2009-05-23T13:18:00.003+05:30

Prices mixed in India, move up in the US

Average corn prices moved up by 1.5% this week at the market yard to Rs.8683 per MT, which is about 17% higher than last year. Reports are that the Karnataka tender has been canceled and a retender will be called possibly by next month.

In the futures market, prices moved lower for June 0.5% to Rs.8850; July 1.45% at Rs.9115; at Aug 2.88% at Rs.9265 per MT. In the spot markets of Nizamabad and Davangere the prices remained stable at close to last week's values.

Preliminary planting reports indicate that due to high Soybean prices, farmers may increase the soy acreage by 10%. Also cotton acreage may increase as the prices moved up and imports of cotton are one. GOI of India purchase cotton, which helped in price stabilization. Overall expectation is that the oil seed area in India may go up by 4-5% by some sources.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved lower 1.2% to reach Rs.9050 per MT. The prices though are 23% higher than last year. Against maize the prices are 4.1% higher. Prices in Rajasthan and Maharashtra are Rs.9200 and 9400 per MT respectively.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved lower by 1.4% to Rs.10270 per MT, but against last year, prices are higher by 5.4%. Against maize the prices are higher by 15.4%. White sorghum is prices close to Rs.15000 per MT, while the cheapest sorghum variety is Rs.7000 per MT (Red).

Barley prices moved lower by 7.4% to Rs.8100 per MT on average. Prices are lower than last year by 26%. In the futures market as well, prices moved lower, For July delivery prices wee 3.1% lower than last week at Rs.9362 and for Sept it was 2.1% lower than last week at Rs.8640. In the spot market (Jaipur), prices were down by 0.5%.

In the International market (CBOT), corn prices moved up by 3.1 - 3.2%. Jun delivery was up to $169.36, while Sept was up at $173.3 and Dec at $177.94 per MT. FOB US Gulf prices were indicated at $188/193 per MT, while FOB PNW was indicated at $202/206 per MT. FOB US gulf prices for Sorghum moved up to $184/187 for Jun-Aug delivery.

Corn planting in US is lagging behind and USDA reports the planting at 62%, against 70% completed last year. Sorghum planting is complete at 38%, similar to last year while Barley is at about 50% against 89% last year. The wet days and planting delays could be one reason for the increased corn prices in US.

DDGS prices added $10 to its tally on high export demand and also increased domestic usage in the wake of higher SBM prices. Poultry and dairy operations in SEA region, Middle East region continue to increase usage of DDGS in poultry, fish and dairy rations. Current prices of DDGS delivered SEA region are about $240 per MT.

Freight rates moved higher a notch to $49/50 per MT for US Gulf - Japan sector, while PNW-Japan freight rates were $26/27 per MT as per reports. Freight rates from Argentina/Brazil to China have also moved up to $45/46 per MT this week.

Reports are that no price is being quoted for corn exports from Argentina and for the next month or so corn would be available from Brazil and Paraguay. For the Indian subcontinent, Bangladesh remains a good buyer as local prices are $205/207 per MT and the crop is expected to be lower than last year. India's exports might be slower as the Rupee appreciated, but higher prices in US could turn the tide again.

US congress accepted President Obama's Climate Change Bill, that aims to reduce green house gases in US, increase fuel efficiency of vehicles in US and use of renewable sources. Analysts believe that the ethanol production and blending will get a boost in US and the ethanol economy will be better over the next couple of years.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse grain production estimates higher, prices mixed ; Poultry prices up in India but are farmers in profit

2009-05-16T08:04:00.005+05:30

Coarse grain production estimates higher, prices mixed

Maize prices have moved up by 3.7% this week to reach Rs.8550 per MT at the Market yard. The prices are 15.5% higher than last year. The market is finding support because of export possibility to Bangladesh and other destinations and local demand as well as the starch and poultry sectors are on the revival path, though slowly. The production estimates (3rd advance estimates) by GOI for maize has been increased to 18.48 MMT Feb 2008 estimates of 17.04 MMT. Khariff production is estimated at 13.84 MMT against last estimates of 13.40 MMT, while Rabi production is estimated at 4.66 MMT, against last estimates of 3.64 MMT.

On the NCDEX, the prices moved up slightly for the near contract, up 0.70% to Rs.8610 per MT. For June, the value is close to 8895 per MT. For July though the prices are lower by 1% and up for Aug by 2.69% to Rs.9540 per MT. On the spot market prices in Nizamabad were down by 0.78% against last week to Rs.8436 per MT and prices in Davangere gained 0.8% to Rs.8126 per MT.

Pearl Millet prices also moved higher to Rs.9165 per MT, an increase of 0.5%. Against last year, the prices are higher by 20% and against maize prices are up by 6.7%. As per the new estimates, Pearl Millet production is estimated at 8.86 MMT.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices have moved lower by 8.7% to Rs.10,420 per MT at the market yard. Prices remain lower than last year by 9.3%, but are higher than maize by 18%. Sorghum production, as per the new estimates is expected at 7.27 MMT, against last estimates of 7.24 MMT.

Barley prices are lower in the local market by 2.7% to reach Rs.8760 per MT. Prices remain lower than last year by 16.3%. Barley production is estimated at 1.55 MMT against last estimates of 1.45 MMT.

Total coarse cereal production is estimated at 38.67 MMT against last estimates of 36.96 MMT, but is lower than last year’s final estimates of 40.76 MMT, and also the target of 42 MMT.

On CBOT, the corn prices moved higher in the week and then lower and by the end of the week prices were lower than last week to $164.24 MMT, down by 0.9% for July delivery. For Sept delivery, prices were at $167.94 MMT, lower by 0.65%, Dec delivery was $172.59 MMT, lower by 0.27%. Corn planting reports from USDA indicate 48% as completed and 14% as emerged. Planting is similar to last year. Barley planting is trailing at 33% against 75% last year.

The sea freight rates on the other side have moved up across the board. US Gulf-Japan benchmark was higher to $+48 per MT, while PNW-Japan was up to $+26 per MT. Argentina/Brazil to China was also higher at $43/44 per MT.

FOB US Gulf prices for corn were indicated at $184/188 per MT, while FOB PNW was at $197/182 per MT. Sorghum price (FOB US Gulf) were indicated at $179/182 per MT. DDGS prices have moved up slightly and were indicated at $235 to SEA region and to India would be close to $290 per MT.

With SBM prices moving higher, DDGS demand and usage is expected to be higher, which is likely to push the prices higher. New trials in Algeria have determined that a 10% DDGS inclusion rate will maintain the performance of the broilers when compared to the performance of chickens on the traditional corn/Soy rations and reduce the feed cost.

Poultry prices up in India but are farmers in profit

Prices of chicken in India are moving up, due to increase demand and possibly short supply. Prices this week in Delhi/Bombay/Punjab/Uttar Pradesh ranges between Rs.55-60 per kg live broiler. Prices in Hyderabad/Bangalore/Coimbatore crossed Rs.65 per kg live broiler. The prices of feed are ranging from Rs.16000 per MT (own mixing) to Rs.18000 per MT by feed companies, due to increased prices of two of the major feed ingredients namely corn and SBM, which are priced at Rs.10000 and 27500 per MT respectively. The cost of production of live broiler is about Rs.44-45 per kg under optimal conditions, but in cases where mortality is higher, cost of production is higher at Rs.50/55 per kg. Heat wave conditions in the country are a factor that is affecting weight gain in broilers, which is increasing the cost of production.

Wholesale egg prices in Delhi are Rs.212/213 per 100 eggs; while in Namakkal and Bangalore are Rs.226/227 per 100 eggs (less Rs.10 for Transport). Cost of production of eggs currently is about Rs.160/165 per 100 eggs on operating costs and adding cost of pullet rearing, the cost of production is about Rs.215 per 100 eggs, which is at par with the sale price. As per the trade reports, prices are likely to move up in the next week. Retail prices of eggs are Rs.300 per 100 eggs.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse grain prices strengthen in India

2009-05-09T09:59:00.003+05:30

Coarse grain prices strengthen in India

Maize prices moved up slightly to Rs.8250 per MT on an average. While prices in Karnataka, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu remained close to Rs.7700 per MT at the market yard, (much below the Minimum Support Levels), prices in other markets were close to Rs.8200 per MT. The prices were about 10% higher than last year.

On the futures market, corn has remained stable this week, except fot July, where prices moved up by 3%to reach Rs.9340 per MT. In the Spot market as well prices have remained stable.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved by slightly to Rs.8860 per MT at the market yard. Prices were higher than last year by 13% and higher than maize by 7%. FCI, Haryana has released about 11,000 MT of pearl millet in the open market at Rs.8120 per MT. The total stock of Pearl Millet at the FCI godowns is about 310,000 MT at various locations and it will find way into poultry/cattle feed if the prices are right.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices have moved by by 14%, a sudden jump to Rs.11,409 per MT. While sorghum for food is the highest priced commodity and is being sold in some areas at over 20,000 MT. The prices are higher than last year by 10.8% and against maize the prices are higher by 27.7%.

Barley prices moved up by about 12% to Rs.9000 per Mt range, but are lower than last year by 12.7%. In the futures market, barley prices have remained stable, while in the SPOT market in Jaipur, prices moved up by 0.5% t0 Rs.9035 per MT.

In the US the prices have been moving up steadily this week due to planting concerns. As per reports available 33% of corn plating has been completed, better than last years 24% during the same time, but is lower than the five year (2004/2008) average of 50%. Sorghum planting is at about 30%, against last year’s 31% and five years average 30%. Barley planting is also lagging behind at 22%, against last year’s 50% and five year’s average 54%.

Corn prices have strengthened due to the planting concerns, good domestic and export demand. Report indicate that Argentina may not be in the market for long and that Brazil also has a 2 MMT lower corn crop. May corn futures on CBOT was up 1.92% at $162.98 per MT, while July and Sept corn was up by 1.79% and 1.65% against last week, closing at $165.73 and $169.04 per MT. FOB values for Gulf are up to $185/189 per Mt for May-Aug while FOB PNW is up to 201/206 per MT for the same period. Sorghum on the other hand is trading at a discount and FOB Gulf price was indicated at $178/180 per MT.

DDGS prices in the US have also firmed due to increased overseas demand and high prices of SBM. Prices to SEA region were $223/234 for June/July delivery, while the FOB Gulf Vessel delivery was indicated at $179 per MT. With Indian SBM prices touching all time high, poultry and dairy feed manufacturers have started looking to source other protein meals, which is likely t o increase the demand and the prices over a long run as per the trade information available. Demand for Corn Gluten Meal is good indicator.

DDGS probably would find a market in other locations as well and would be a cheaper Protein source than SBM (on prorata), with energy from fat thrown in as an extra. The details of DDGS in the form of a handbook can be downloaded from the U S Grains Council website, using the link given below.

USGC DDGS Handbook: http://www.grains.org/ddgs-user-handbook

Another source of information on DDGS that can be utilized by users is the book from Iowa State University. The same can be downloaded using the link below.

DDGS Book from Iowa State University: http://www.matric.iastate.edu/DGbook/

Freight rates have also strengthened and if that is the indication for the revival of the economy is anybody’s guess. US Gulf-Japan was up to +43 per MT, while PNW-Japan benchmark was higher at +23 per MT. Brazil/Argentina to China was also higher at $39/40 per MT. Sources indicate increased iron ore business in China, which would be the factor, but there are more vessels that the demand and freight rates may not reach the high as yet.

Amit Sachdev
India representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

2009-05-02T07:01:00.000+05:30

Mixed market signals for coarse grains

Maize prices at the market yard remained stable as last week to Rs.8200-8300 per MT levels on pan India basis. While prices in some production centers like Andhra Pradesh were closer to Minimum Support Prices, prices in Karnataka and Tamil nadu were lower at Rs.7850 per MT. Trade is of the opinion that the Karnataka crop is slowly getting over and next month would see a surge in prices. Reports from Bihar indicate increased arrival and thus a pressure on prices, which range from Rs.7700 – 8000 per MT. Bihar crop is expected to be down by 15-20% on initial reports from Bihar traders. The average price of maize in April was Rs.8288 per MT, about 16% higher than April 2008 and similar to last month (Mar 2009).

The market in Bangladesh is expanding slowly and demand is higher for corn. Local prices are ranging from $202-205 per MT for local maize and production is also expected to be lower by about 30%. Exports from India are catching up and prices range from $180-182 per MT at the border.

On the future markets corn prices have slumped by 2-4%, possibly due to sentiments that the Swine Flu (Infuenza A – H1N1) might effect exports. The spot prices in Nizamabad remained at Rs.8500 range, while in Davangere prices were higher by 1.38% to Rs.8031 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices were lower by 2% and were close to Rs.8850 per Mt at the market yard. Prices were higher than last year by 16% and also higher than maize by 7%. While in Uttar Pradesh the prices of Bajra may be lower than maize, in Rajasthan prices are rulling higher than maize as the commodity is staple in Rajasthan. Average prices of Pearl Millet in April 2009 was Rs.8910 per MT, 21.4% higher than April 2008 average and 3.74% higher than March 2009 average.

Sorghum (Jowar) pries moved by 2.2% crossing Rs.10,000 per MT mark this week. Against last year, prices are 2.6% higher and also higher by 18% against maize. Average price of Sorghum in April 2009 was Rs.9736 per MT, about 2.6% lower than April 2008 and 1.52% higher than Mar 2009 prices.

Barley prices moved up slightly by 2.2% to Rs.8000 range and were reported lower than last year by 21% in the end of April. Average April 2009 prices were Rs.8077 per MT, about 16% lower than April 2008 and about 3% lower than Mar 2009 prices.

In the futures market the prices slumped on anticipation of higher deliveries in future. The prices were down by 1.2 – 1.85%. While May delivery was down by 1.85% to Rs.9450 per MT, Sept delivery was down by 1.2% to 9850 per MT. Jaipur spot market was down by 1.2% to Rs.8985 per MT. The malt manufactured from barley is used primarily for beer and the market in 2008 has grown by 9% and is expected to grow in 2009 by 10%. Malt is also used in health drinks, and again the category is expected to grow by 8-10% in 2009 as per reports.

On CBOT corn prices moved up against last week by 6.5-7.5%, due to planting concerns. Corn for may delivery was quotes at $159.91; Jun $162.82; Sept $166.29; Dec $170.54 per MT. Current planting is about 22% complete against five year average of 28%.

Corn prices FOB US gulf were $180-186 per MT for Jun-Aug, while FOB PNW was $196-200 per MT. Sorghum of FOB basis was quoted at $175/177 per MT (US Gulf).

DDGS prices have strengthened and current CNF prices to SEA region are $220-225 per MT. Freight rates have come down somewhat, while US Gulf – Japan is down to 440 per MT, PNW-Japan is down to $21 per MT. Brazil-Argentina to China freight is indicated at $36/37 per MT.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse grain prices firm, demand to increase; Biotech gaining acceptance in Europe

2009-04-25T07:44:00.002+05:30

Coarse grain prices firm, demand to increase

Maize prices were down by about 1.6% this week on an average to Rs.8300 per MT at market yard (loose sales). This is due to increased arrivals at the market yard or the rabi crop, in Bihar, Andhra and Karnataka. The prices though are higher than last year prices at market yard by 14.7%.

On NCDEX, maize prices moved up by 1-3.6%, while May contract gained 0.9% to reach Rs.8910 per MT, August contract was close to Rs.9480 per MT, gaining 3.6%. SPOT market prices also moved up. Nizamabad was higher by 1.9% against last week to Rs.8513 per MT, Also Davangere was higher by 0.3% at Rs.7922 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved down by 1% to Rs.9000 per MT range at the market yard. Prices are higher than last year by 19.1% and 8.1% higher than maize on an average. In North India there are still chances that some amount of pearl millet will used in broiler/layer rations, but not in South India as the delivered price will be much higher than maize.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved by by 4.8% this week, to reach Rs.9795 per MT. Against last year though, prices are lower by about 0.7%, but higher than maize by 15.5%. In current scenario and prices, using sorghum in poultry rations will not work.

Barley prices have moved lower on average by 2.6% to Rs.7850 per MT range. Prices are lower than last year by 21.7%. With increased production and availability, lower exports forecast for barley, usage in cattle feed would be higher. Also farmers at a later stage may not sell so much barley, as returns are much lower than last year.

On the futures market, prices dropped by 1 – 2%. May contract closed 2% lower at Rs.9628 per MT. Spot prices at Jaipur market was 0.88% lower thn last week at Rs.9091 per MT.

On CBOT corn remained stable at last week's level, but within the week the prices did move up and down due to weather forecast and its affect on corn plantings. While dry weather would mean a better planting and brought the prices down, wet weather forecast helped corn to gain on CBOT. By the end of the week, the prices were back to last week’s level.
Reports indicate that the corn planting is going slow and only 5% of the planting is complete against 14% for the last 5 year average, but it is 1% higher than last year’s planting of 4% at the same time.

Corn prices on FOB basis, US gulf are similar to last week at $170/171 per MT. FOB PNW for Apr is down to $177 per MT, while for June is higher at $187 per MT as per USGC market perspective report.

Prices of DDGS have moved up to $235-238 per MT for SEA markets, amid increased demand and possible replacement with high prices SBM in the region. Trials done in Australia on DDGS usage in Australia confirm the fact that DDGS is a good product and c be used in dairy rations upto 20%, without any adverse affect on milk production, and if it is competitive, substantial savings could be done by incorporating the co-product in dairy rations.

Freight markets too are stable with US Gulf-Japan freight at $42 per MT, PNW-Japan at 23.5 per MT. Brazil/Argentina – China freight is reported at $38-39 per MT.

Reports from other corn markets indicate that Argentina has issued export licenses for 1.185 MMT of corn, and in Brazil there is a slowdown in exports. Reports also indicate that Brazil farmers may be shifting to sugarcane against corn due to high ethanol demand. A new FAO report (Crop prospects and food situation. April 2009) indicates that India would produce a record cereal crop in 2008, the coarse cereal production would be lower at 37.7 MMT in 2008, against 40.5 MMT in 2007. The production in 2009 is estimated to fall in 2009 to 35.6 MMT.

Biotech gaining acceptance in Europe

Last week there were reports that Germany has banned the planting of pest resistant corn and that the biotech company had filed a suit against the country (Germany) as the ban was illegal as EU has approved the planting of the trait in Europe. Other countries that have banned the planting biotech crops include France, Austria, Greece, Luxemburg and Hungary. But there are countries within EU and also Scandinavian countries that have given approvals for plantings or filed trials of biotech corn or barley. These countries include Spain and Romania. Denmark too is testing herbicide tolerant corn as per reports.

Some recent consumer surveys in Europe and UK indicate that people are not so much skeptical about GM use as they were earlier.

A poll conducted by Grocery Distribution in the UK, indicate that GM technologies are seen as an important tool towards mitigation of increasing global food shortages and of responding to food production challenges posed by climate change:

* More than half (52 %) of British consumers regard this technology as instrument against increasing global food shortages. While only 13 % of respondents expressed disagreement with this idea.

* Nearly half (47 %) of respondents regard GM crops to be a solution for increasingly extreme weather conditions and for combating plant diseases. While only 12 % of those polled did not share this opinion.

In another study “Consumerchoice", funded by European Commission, indications are that in countries where GM products were available in shops like in the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain, only 20 % of buyers actively avoided such products. Similar results were obtained in a study conducted by the Institute of Grocery Distribution in the UK in 2008. More than half (53 %) of respondents claimed not to think about GM when shopping. Only 21 % claimed to check food labels to ensure that food was non-GM.

Surveys and shopping trials make few things clear.

1. In actual shopping scenarios, low-priced GM products are picked up and increase market share.
2. That 80% of consumers surveyed do not actively avoid GM products when shopping,
3. GM products having significant environmental or consumer benefits were rated positive by more than half the consumers and would be bought
4. That the acceptance of the new technology has increased steadily since 1999.

But there is a need to provide more information on the benefits of GM to the general population rather than issue a directive and do not allow the technology to be used, when it can address the food shortage situation and also lower the commodity prices. (detailed report on GMO compass).

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse grain prices find support; China to import corn in 2009

2009-04-18T07:48:00.003+05:30

Coarse grain prices find support

Maize prices moved up this week by about 1% to reach at MSP value on average pan India. While in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Bihar prices are ruling below MSP, prices are higher than MSP in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi. On an average prices are about 14.1% higher than last year.

The tender for 0.326 MMT of maize from FCI in Karnataka received an overwhelming response. Reports indicate minimum bids close to Rs.6000, while the max bid at Rs.8150 per MT (at site). It will be the discretion of FCI to accept the bids and there is time until May 30. Stocks can be picked up within 60 days of acceptance of the bid (July 30, 2009). Till that time the stock is locked. Reports are that there is still some corn in the FCI godowns in Karnataka (0.15 MMT), Andhra Pradesh (0.22 MMT) and Maharashtra (0.16 MMT). The total stock that is out of the market currently is about 0.85 MMT, which is less than one months demand for India.

Prices of maize in future as well as spot market moved up in the range of 0.7-2.3% this week. On NCDEX corn was quoted at Rs.8830 for May, up 1.61%; Rs.9100 for June, up 2.3%; Rs.9170 for July, up 1.88% over last week. Nizamabad Rs.8344, up 2.1%; Davangere Rs.7900, up 0.68%; and Karimnagar Rs.8239, up 1% against last week’s prices.

Pearl Millet (bajra) prices have moved up by 2.8% this week to reach Rs.9100 per MT. The sudden jump is prices is seen across all production centers. The prices are about 19.7% higher than last year and about 7.6% higher than maize.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices remained similar to last week at Rs.9300 – 9350 per MT range. And are about 8.5% lower than last year prices. Against maize the prices are 10% higher.

Barley prices have moved up by 1% to 8055 per MT and against last year, t he prices are lower than 13.8%. Production of barley in 2008/09 is expected at 1.45 MMT as per the second advance estimate from GOI, which about 0.25 MMT higher than last year. With export market completely off, there would be plenty of barley in the market which will keep the prices down.

On NCDEX, prices for May were up by about 0.8% to Rs.9830 per MT, while for July they were down by 0.77% to Rs.9972 per MT. Prices in the Spot market (Jaipur) were up by 1.12% to Rs.9172 per MT.

On CBOT, corn prices slumped by 3 – 3.5% this week. May, $148, down 3.5%; July $151.80, down 3.5%; Sept $155, down 3.46% and Dec $160.22, down 3%. Reports indicate that corn may find support if Environmetal Protection Agency (EPA) agrees to the policy change to allow 15% ethanol in gasoline, which would increase demand on corn in US.

FOB US gulf prices were reported at $169 /171 per MT, down from last week’s $177/178 per MT, FOB PNW was up to 181 from $180 last week. Prices of Sorghum, FOB, US gulf, were down to $164/166 per MT against $171/172 last week. Reports indicate freight to be slightly higher with US Gulf – Japan at $43 per MT against $39 last week, and PNW-Japan at $23 per MT, against $18 last week. US Gulf to South China was reported at $42 per MT.

DDGS prices to SEA region have remained stable at $220 per MT to Malaysia and $235 to South China ports. The prices have found support due to increased Soybean meal prices.

China to import corn in 2009

There are reports that China may import corn this year in Southern Region, as local prices are higher than the international market. US corn was reported to be valued at $252 per MT (1750 Yuan), against 1700 Yuan per MT for Chinese corn last week. A higher quality US corn could be sold at a small premium in the market, which could tilt the balance. With the prices of US corn lower than last week, corn would be prices still cheaper this week and some indications point to $212-215 (at port). There is VAT and duty on corn in China and even with that, the US corn will be cheaper than local Chinese corn. This has nothing to do with shortage, said Cary Sifferath, USGC Country Director in China. In 2008, the official harvest of corn was 165.5 MMT and Chinese Government purchased large amount of stock in production areas or Northeastern China, which has increased the prices for local producers. This has caused a disparity in Chinese and World prices. (I USD = 6.9 Yuan)

Situation may not be similar in India but in some consumption areas, where corn is not a staple, like in Punjab, Gujarat and other North Indian states, prices are Rs.9500 – 10200 per MT ($190 – 205) at the end users end. In production areas like Bihar prices are 7400 – 8000 ($148 – 160), Karnataka 7700 – 8000 (154 – 160) (I USD = Rs.49.75). Indian corn is finding buyers in SEA region at $195 per MT (delivered).

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

Mixed bag for coarse grain prices; USDA report on supply and demand

2009-04-11T09:06:00.003+05:30

Mixed bag for coarse grain prices

Maize prices moved up by 1.2% this week to Rs.8300 per MT range. Prices are still higher than last year by 14.8%. Prices in Karnataka, one of the main production areas was possibly the lowest and commodity was trading below the Minimum Support price by about 9%. Repots are exports are on and the price parity remains. As the markets in SEA region rebound and some activity is seen, the demand of grain will increase slowly and gradually. Current delivery values are at $190 – 192 per MT to SEA region.

On the NCDEX though, the prices for near months were little lower than last week to Rs.8340 for Apr; Rs.8690 for May; Rs.8895 for Jun, losing 0.3-0.04% over last week. July prices were however up by 1% to Rs.9000 per MT. In the SPOT market, prices in Nizamabad showed an increase by 1.1% to Rs.8172 per MT, Davangere an uptrend of 3.2% to Rs.8158 per MT, while prices in Karimnagar were down by 1% to 7846 per MT.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved up by 1.1% to Rs.8850 per MT at the market yard. Prices are higher than last year by 21.1%. Against maize, the prices are higher by 6.2%.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices slumped by 7.8% at the market yard to Rs.9400 per MT range. Against last year, prices are lower by 7.3% and higher than maize by 11.2%.

Barley prices slumped this week on increased arrivals in market yards in North India (Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh) by about 6.2% to Rs.7900 per MT. Prices are about 22.5% lower than last year prices.

On the NCDEX though the prices increased this week by 8 -10% for Apr – August deliveries, Apr Rs.9578, up 8%; May Rs.9752, up by 9%; July Rs.10050, up 10%. In the Spot market in Jaipur, prices were up by 8.1% to Rs.9070 per MT.

Corn in CBOT was down by 3.2 – 3.5%, May $153.61; July $157.31, Sept $161.17, Dec 165.97 per MT. FOB US Gulf was $174 – 179 per MT, Sorghum price, FOB US Gulf was $171-172 per MT. Freight rates US Gulf – Japan are close to $39 per MT, while PNW – Japan are $18 per MT. Brazil – China freight is at $35 per MT.

DDGS prices to SEA region were close to $220 per MT, FOB, US gulf rates are $169-171 per MT.
Corn plating has also started in US and reports indicate that about 20% area has been planted, though a little lower than the five year average of 23%.

USDA report on supply and demand

Corn

USDA in its latest report released April 09. 2009 raised US domestic feed usage for corn to 135.89 MMT, and lowered the food, seed and industrial usage to 126.74 MMT. The ending stocks in USA have been estimated at 43.18 MMT for the year 2008/09.

World corn production for 2008/09 has been estimated at 786.4 MMT, down from last year’s 790.91 MMT. Global ending stocks have been estimated at 143.3 MMT, which is 14 MMT above a year ago. In 2008/09, US produced 307.4 MMT, which is 39% of the world’s corn and the production was lower than last year’s 331.18 MMT. India’s production in 2008/09 is estimated at 17.04 MMT, about 2% of the world’s production.

Corn summary for Marketing Year 08/09

1. World corn production fell 1% to 786.4 MMT. The US corn is down 8% to 307.4 MMT.
2. World corn supplies increased by 1% to 916 MMT, while US supplies are 5% lower at 348.6 MMT.
3. World corn trade is projected to decrease 23% to 76.1 MMT, due to increased availability of feed wheat and lower feeding rates. US corn exports are expected to decrease 28% to 44 MMT.
4. World corn consumption is steady at 772.7 MMT. US usage is also expected to stay about the same at 262.6 MMT.
5. World corn carryover stocks are estimated to increase 10% to 143.3 MMT, while US stocks are expected to increase by 4% to 43 MMT.

Barley

1. World barley production is up 15% to 153.8 MMT. US production increased 13% to 5.2 MMT.
2. World barley supplies are 12% higher at 174 MMT, and US supplies are 10% higher at 6.7 MMT.
3. World barley trade is expected to fall by 1% to 18.4 MMT. US exports are projected to fall by 62% to .35 MMT, due to greater competition from Australia, Canada and the Black Sea region.
4. World barley consumption is projected to increase 7% to 143.9 MMT, and US usage is expected to increase 16% to 5.1 MMT.
5. World barley carryover stocks are estimated to jump 49% to 30 MMT, while US carryout is projected to increase by 30% to 1.9 MMT.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
Email: usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse grains prices remain volatile; Corn planting intentions lower in US

2009-04-04T11:16:00.002+05:30

Coarse grains prices remain volatile

Maize prices were lower this week by 4.4% to Rs.8200 per MT. Prices were reported higher than last year by 12.3%. Mar 2009 average price of maize at market yard was Rs.8311 per MT, about 13.23% higher than mar 2008 and 1.2% higher than Feb 2009 value. Reports are that the export parity is there which will boost exports from India, which might touch 700 – 800 TMT for the marketing year (Oct 2008 – Sept 2009). Rabi arrivals have started in Bihar, Andhra and Karnataka and prices are about 10% lower than MSP at the market yard.

In the futures market though the prices jumped Apr 8345, + 0.6%; May 8715, +3.4%; Jun 8930, +4.8%; July 8900, +4.2%. against last week’s prices. In the spot markets prices were similar to last week.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved lower by about 1% at the market yard to 8760 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 12%. Against maize prices are higher than 6%. Mar 2009 average price for Pearl Millet was Rs.8589 per Mt, 22.6% higher than Mar 2008 and 5.39% higher than Feb 2009 averages.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved in the lower circuit by 1.8% to Rs.10160 and were similar to last year’s value at the market yard. Against maize, prices were reported to be higher by 19%. Mar 2009 average prices at market yard was Rs.9590 per MT, 1.57% lower than Mar 2008 and 4.56% lower than Feb 2009 averages.

Barley prices moved up by 4.1% this week to Rs.8493 per MT, but remained lower than last year values by 16%. Mar 2009 average prices of Barley was 17.4% lower than Mar 2008 and 2.76% lower than Feb 2009 averages.

In the futures market as well market was up by 3% for Apr – May delivery to 8800 – 8950 levels. In the Spot market as well, prices moved up by 3.7% and were indicated at Rs.8390 per MT.

Corn on CBOT gained about 4 – 4.5% this week and prices were over $4 per bushel, May $159.20; July $163.22; Sept $166.78; Dec $171.41 per MT. FOB Gulf prices were $178/180 per MT; FOB PNW prices 188 per MT. FOB prices pf Brazilian corn are reported at $166 per MT. Sorghum prices, FOB Gulf were $173/174 per MT, inching closer to corn prices.

Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles (DDGS) prices have remained stable and delivered prices to Thailand and Vietnam are close to $215 and $220 per MT respectively. DDGS price in New Orleans (FOB) was indicated at $170 per MT.

Corn planting intentions lower in US

The Mar 31 2009 USDA report has projected that farmers in US intend to plant less of corn, barley, Sorghum & Cotton and intend to increase acreages for Soybean, Oats, Rice, Dry Beans Lentils and Dry peas.

Corn plantings are expected to be at 85 million acres in 2009, down 1% against 2008, Barley is expected at 3.953 million acres, down 6.6%, Sorghum at 6.960 million acres is down by 16% and Cotton is expected to be down by 7%.

Acerage on Soybean is expected at 76.024 million acres, up 0.4%, Oats is expected to be up by 6%, Dry beans by 3%, lentils by 38% and Dry peas by 9%.

Corn plantings are down as the prices have been lower than expected (lower than $4 per bushel cost of production) and the input prices have been unstable, which has led to the decision to lower corn plantings. This though does not mean that the production will be lower. Farmers in US have used the latest technologies to maximize the yields and that may be expected again.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

Volatile coarse grain markets, exports to continue from India; Poultry farmers make profit in India

2009-03-28T09:46:00.005+05:30

Volatile coarse grain markets, exports to continue from India

Maize prices moved up by another 3.4% this week to reach Rs.8600 per MT at the market yard. Prices are higher than last year prices by 16.4%. As there are averages, reports are price of maize in the interiors is close to Rs.7600 per MT and in some cases upto Rs.8000 per MT. Price of corn in non producing states like Punjab are reported at Rs.9000 per Mt while in Andhra a ear Rs.8000, and Karnataka as low as Rs.7700 per MT. Reports indicate that prices at Kakinada are at Rs.8600 per MT as most exports are likely to take place from Kakinada.

Bihar crop has started to arrive in the market, but with a high moisture content (18-20%) and this cannot be used by the poultry industry and must be dried to ) before it is packed and stored.
In the spot market, maize prices moved up in Davangere and Nizamabad by 1.3 and 0.25% respectively over last week prices, but remained lower than MSP values by Rs.400 – 600 per MT. In Karimnagar though, prices moved lower by 1% to Rs.7900 per MT. In the futures market, prices moved up slightly by 0.3 – 0.8% over last week, but overall prices remained lower than MSP of Rs.8400 per MT. Would that mean that GOI or state agencies will step in to purchase corn, is a question. There is a tender from FCI, South zone to sell 326,000 tons of maize in the open market (from Karnataka). This is to clear the space for the wheat and rice purchases.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices also moved up by 4% to reach Rs.8835 per MT at the market yard on average, pan India. Prices are higher than last year by 17.3%. Against maize, prices are higher by 2.8%.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices added 7% to its tally, reaching Rs.10,349 per MT. The prices however remained lower than last year by 1.5% and higher than maize by 17%.

Barley prices also added 6%, reaching Rs.8160 per MT at the market yard. The prices were lower than last year by 22%.

Prices in SPOT market fell by 5% as deliveries started in the market. Prices have remained higher than the MSP of Rs.6800 per MT. In the futures as well, prices were reported to be down by 2% over last week.

On CBOT the week ended with prices moving lower by 2.1-2.4%. May $152.53; July $156.44; Sept $160.22. The FOB values (US Gulf) were reported at $174-176 per MT for Apr – July, based on the above prices, while the FOB (PNW) is reported at $$189-194 per MT. Sorghum prices (FOB US gulf) were lower than corn at $167-170 per MT.

The freight rates have remained stable this week, US Gulf-Japan $40, PNW-Japan $20, US Gulf - China $44, while Brazil - China $35 per MT. Delivery values for corn in SEA region would be close to $200 – 209 per MT depending on the origin. Farmers in Argentina have a 7 day strike to eliminate export tax and no easy solution is on the horizon as per reports. Brazil is reported sales of corn at $167 FOB.

DDGS prices have moved up slightly to $216-220 per MT delivered SEA region. The issue still is the availability of containers for delivery to SEA region. Delivery of DDGS to New Orleans is about $160 per MT on barge.

There are reports that Indian corn is finding buyers as there is price parity against US/Brazilian corn in the SEA region. FOB values were reported at $170 per MT and delivered values $190-194 per MT. The business is mostly in containers.

Poultry farmers make profit in India

Even though there is a down trend, the poultry farmers selling live chicken are making money. SBM prices are higher, but corn prices are stable. The placement of broilers is still at about 35- 36 million per week, while the demand may be higher, which is pulling the prices up. Bombay prices were Rs.52 per kg (live),while the cost of production is about Rs.40 per kg (farm gate).

There are areas in North India, where people will not be consuming Non Veg food for the next nine days and this may bring the prices lower, but to what extent is still to be seen.

Reports indicate place,ent of broiler parent stocks in many areas in the last 2 months, which will be comming in production in the next 6 - 7 months and supplies of chicken would increase sometime from August onwards.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse Grain prices - ups and downs

2009-03-21T14:25:00.001+05:30

Coarse Grain prices - ups and downs

Maize prices moved up at the marker yard by 3.3% to average at Rs.8300 per MT. Lowest level of maize was at Rs.7700 per MT as arrivals have also started for Rabi crop in some areas. The prices have remained higher than last year by 13.7%.

In the future market prices have remained similar or moved lower than last week for Mar to may delivery. SPOT market prices in Karimnagar and Davangere were down by 1-1.5% to Rs.8000 and 7800 per MT respectively.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices slumped by 1% to Rs.8500 per MT range, but have remained higher than last year’s prices by 17.4%/ Against maize too, the prices have remained higher by 2.2%.
Sorghum (Jowar) prices moved up by 12.9% against last week to reach 9670 per MT. The prices were however lower than last year by 3.5%, but 14% higher than maize.

Barley prices slumped by 12.4% in the market yard, as rabi arrivals started in the market. Against last year, the prices were lower by 31%. In the SPOT market at Jaipur, prices moved lower by 0.5% to Rs.8500 per MT range, while in the futures market, the prices moved up by 1.5 – 2.2% to Rs.8800 – 8850 per MT for Apr/may delivery.

On CBOT the corn prices have moved up for May – Sept delivery by 2 – 2.3%. The prices were at $156 per MT for May, $160.22 per MT for Jul and 163.77 per MT for Sept delivery. FOB values for corn (US Gulf) were $174/175 per MT for Apr delivery, For May/July delivery prices are ranging from $175-178 per MT.

There are reports that Argentina farmers are ready for exports, by Government of Argentina is not ready to reduce export tax. This is likely to limit exports. A report from USDA, Argentina also suggests that corn area in 2009/10 may decline by 12%.

DDGS prices for SEA region are reported at $215 – 220 per MT. The demand for the product in almost all regions is increasing, which is increasing the prices. Also as demand of containers in up and supply very low, loading is affected.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse grain prices high and low, demand is slow; Food recall procedure to be in place

2009-03-14T11:25:00.003+05:30

Coarse grain prices high and low, demand is slow

Maize prices at the market yard moved down by about 3% to Rs.8050 per MT, but the prices have been higher by about 7.4% against last year, during the same time. Overall demand is slow for the domestic sector, specially poultry and starch and purchases are for immediate requirements rather than storage for a long period as rabi crop is due to arrive soon and in some cases arrivals have started.

In the futures market (NCDEX), prices were lower than last week by 1 – 1.5% for Mar – June deliveries. In the SPOT market as well the prices fell by about 1% against last week at all locations.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices have moved up by about 1% to reach Rs.8557 per MT at the market yard. Prices have remained higher than last year by 21% and 6% higher than maize at the market yard.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices slumped by 12.4% against last week to reach Rs.8563 per MT. Prices are higher than last year by 12% and also 6% higher than maize.

Barley prices also moved up by about 1% to average at Rs.8780 per Mt at the market yard. Prices are lower than last year by 14.6% In the futures market on NCDEX, the April delivery was slightly lower than last week to Rs.8600 per MT, while May delivery was close to Rs.8700 per MT. In the SPOT market (Jaipur), the prices were Rs.8572 per MT, down by 2.6% against last week.

On CBOT, corn prices moved up by 6.5 – 7.5% over last week. While mar delivery was $147.62 per MT, Sept close at $160 per MT. Delivered values of Corn in the SEA region would be close to $210/212 per Mt in April /May to $215/218 per MT in may/June.

Reports indicate FOB values of corn from India to be close to Rs.164/170 per MT and with the price differential, their could be increase in exports from India as prices remain stable or go down in the wake of increased Rabi arrivals. Also the prices of corn from Argentina (FOB) is somewhat similar to India, but the lower freight makes Indian corn attractive. In such a situation, with production in India also lower than last year by about 2 MMT, any increase in exports could lead to higher prices during the period Jun – Sep.

Even though the demand in poultry and starch may be lower, indications are that the consumption of corn/maize in food as snacks, corn on cob, Breakfast cereals and direct food use is on the increase and in order to arrive at a true consumption picture, the food consumption must be captured correctly.

Food recall procedure to be in place

The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSASI) has initiated steps to set up a food recall system in place for domestic as well as imported foods, that could be unsafe. The

Main objectives of the recall procedure is to set up guidelines for the manufactures, wholesalers and importers so as their could be a rapid identification of unsafe food and removal of the same from the food chain, informing consumers about potentially hazardous products. The recall procedure must be written and there must be a follow-up action that the same situation is not repeated.

The full text of the proposed draft food recall procedures can be accessed at
http://fssai.gov.in/Recall.doc

One issue that is important here, and must be brought out is the use of certain food additives and residue limits. Some food additives are allowed in other countries, which are still not approved to be used in India. In addition residue limits are way low in India and may be higher in other parts of the world, which would mean that even those products that are deemed safe on country of origin, are to be considered hazardous in India and recalled. If is important that before such a procedure is put in place, Indian standards are harmonized with the world standards.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse grain prices, moving with the tide; US Commodity Market

2009-03-07T11:01:00.003+05:30

Coarse grain prices, moving with the tide

Maize prices moved up slightly this week as the demand for export grew. Average price at the market yard moved up by 1.6% to Rs.8300 per MT. The prices are higher than 9% against last year.

The final estimates for 2007/08 maize production are out and the production is estimated at 18.96 MMT against the earlier estimate of 19.31 MMT. While Kharif production is pegged at 15.11 MMT, Rabi is pegged at 3.85 MMT. The second estimates for 2008/09 crop estimate the production to be 17.04 MMT. Khraif production is estimated at 13.40 MMT against a target of 15.50 MMT and rabi is projected at 3.64 MMT, against a target of 4 MMT.

In the future markets the prices for Mar – Jun moved up by 1-2% per MT, Mar Rs.8280; Apr Rs.8335; May Rs.8420; Jun Rs.8560 per MT. On the Spot market though, the prices slumped by 0.5 – 1%. Nizamabad Rs.8111; Karimnagar Rs.8005; Davangere Rs.7734 per Mt. The prices are much lower than the Minimum Support Price (MSP) set by the government and reports are that atleast 0.5 MMT of corn has been purchased by the state agencies in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka at the MSP, which will be sold later.

Prices as per the market are projected to go down in the near future due to lower demand and rabi crop coming into the market. But that may not be for a long period, as the lower prices will spur purchase and exports may continue. Based on dollar values, Indian corn is again the cheapest corn available, if that would spur exports over a medium term, prices may also stay stable.

Pearl Millet (Bajra), prices are similar to last week’s average (Rs.8460 – 8500 per MT). Prices are about 18% higher than last year and against maize, the prices are higher by 2%. Production for Pearl Millet in 2007/08 is estimated at 9.97 MMT. In 2008/09 the production is projected at 8.85 MMT against a target of 10 MMT.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices slumped by 2% to average at Rs.9780 per MT, The prices are higher than last year by 9.1% and against maize by 15.2%. Sorghum production in 2007/08 is estimated 7.93 MMT. In 2008/09 the production is estimated at 7.24 MMT against a target of 8.0 MMT. Khariff production is estimated at 3.06 MMT, while Rabi is projected to be 4.18 MMT.

Barley prices moved up by about 3.2% against last week to average Rs.8700 per MT at the market yard. The prices are lower than last year’s by 18.2%. Barley production in 2007/08 is estimated at 1.20 MMT. In 2008/09 the production is projected to be 1.45 MMT against a target of 1.50 MMT.

Barley prices on NCDEX were reported lower than last week, by 6.68% for April delivery, while in the Spot market at Jaipur, the prices were higher by 3.5% to Rs.8800 per MT.

US Commodity Market

The prices of Corn on CBOT moved up slightly from 0.6 - $1.0 per MT for Mar – September deliveries. Pricing were Mar $138.81; May $142.27; July $146.05; Sept $149.28 per MT. FOB values for corn (US Gulf) were $162 – 163 per MT for Mar to June delivery. Reports are, imported corn, specially US is priced at about $210/212 per MT.

Sorghum values on FOB basis (US Gulf) are still about $10 cheaper than corn at $152/154 per MT, which would lead to increased sales and usage on sorghum in some traditional corn markets and it would compete with corn from other sources.

Feed wheat is still the cheapest grain available on the market and is trading in SEA and is a competitive product. Swine farmers in some areas may shift to feed wheat, but poultry, especially broiler integrators are likely to stay with corn as it is the only source of energy.

DDGS prices are currently at $212/215 per MT delivered to Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam. Over the next couple of weeks the prices may go up, only because of the slow availability on containers in USA, a sure sign that US is receiving less stocks/goods from other parts of the world, specially SEA region, which was the major exporter of products, including auto parts, textiles, foods, handicrafts, furniture etc to USA.

The latest trial using DDGS in Chile, it has been proved again that DDGS in dairy feeds not only reduced the cost of of feeding but also increased compoents in milk (protein) and production of milk in summer as well as winter, giving higher margins to the dairy farmers.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com

Coarse grain prices stable to high; Bird flu in India - poultry demand remains strong

2009-02-28T11:08:00.002+05:30

Coarse grain prices stable to high

Maize prices remained stable this week at Rs.8164 per MT at the market yard. Against last year, the prices are higher by about 12.4%. The average Feb 09 value at the market yard was Rs.8209 per MT at the market yard, which is 3% higher than Jan 2009 average and 14.86% higher than Feb 08 average at the market yard. Reports indicate some exports have started again to SEA region, especially to Malaysia and Vietnam.

In the futures market on NCDEX corn prices slumped by about Rs.100 per MT, Mar 8190; Apr 8250, May 8300 and Jun 8400. In the Spot markets though the prices remained stable as last week.

The new figures for the quarterly growth in India’s GDP indicate that the agricultural growth is down to -2.2% in the quarter Oct-Dec 2008 and the economic slow down which was not affecting agriculture till now is taking its toll on the agriculture as well. The slowdown in agriculture will affect the overall GDP growth of India.

Pearl Millet (Bajra) prices moved up by 5% at the market yard to Rs.8466 per MT. The prices are higher than last year by 20.5%. Against maize, the prices are higher by 3.6%. The Feb 2009 average prices is Rs.8149 per MT, 23% higher than Feb 2008 and 3.2% higher than Jan 2009 prices.

Sorghum (Jowar) prices have also moved up by 0.4% to Rs.9990 per MT at the market yard. Prices are higher than last year by 5.8% and against maize 18.3% higher. The average Feb 2009 prices is Rs.10049 per MT, 7.6% higher than Jan 2009 average and 8.14% higher than Feb 2008 average.

Barley prices are the only one’s that have slumped and were down by 7.2% against last week to Rs.8432 per MT. Against last year prices are lower by 27.6%. Feb 2009 average was Rs.8569 about 16.9% lower than Feb 2008 levels and 3.93% lower than Jan 2009 average. In the SPOT market of Jaipur prices have slumped by almost Rs.675 per MT (7.35% drop), against last week’s prices.

The prices of corn on CBOT have somewhat remained stable as last week at $135 for Mar, to $148 for Sep. The FOB US gulf rates are indicated at $165/167 per Mt for the period Mar/Jun delivery. Freight rates have remained stable this week. With Argentina farmers ending the strikes, there could be some movement of ships from South America.

Bird flu in India - poultry demand remains strong

Fresh bird flu outbreak was reported this week in the North east of the country in bordering districts of West Bengal. India will be living with the bird flu, especially in the border areas where multi species farming is a norm. backyard poultry, swine and ducks ram freely and it will just be impossible to segregate these until some touch measures are taken at the state level and implemented. The areas are so remote that in some cases, the information about culling may not reach. Smuggling across the state/country border is rampant.

One way to deal with the situation would be to allow vaccination of stocks, specifically in borders areas, where bird flu episodes have occurred in the past and likely to occur due multi species farming.

Even though the birdflu episode has been reported, it is not affecting demand in the region and country, though exports have been badly hit. Consumers in metros and other areas are aware that the problem is localized and will not reach them.

Current placement of broilers in India is about 34 million per week and India produces about 970 million eggs per week and most of it is consumed in India. The per capita avaiablility of broiler meat is about 2 kg per person per annum, while for eggs the availability is about 45 eggs per person per annum.

Current prices of live broiler in North India are much higher (Rs.65 per kg), while in Bombay and other areas prices are close to Rs.45-48 per kg and this has not affected. Chilled chicken can be purchased in the retail market at anywhere between 130 - 150 per kg (bone in), while boneless chicken is available at Rs.200 - 240 per kg. Even with these prices which are 33% higher than last year, demand for chicken is strong.

The only way continue export trade would be to make zones, without which every time a bird flu episode is reported, exports will be hit badly. In the last one and a half year, India’s exports of shelled eggs and poultry meat have been badly hit.

Amit Sachdev
India Representative
U S Grains Council
usgcindia@gmail.com